Wide criticism of Sodom airburst hypothesis emerges

A follower of Earth-logs has brought to my attention a wide range of concerns regarding the veracity of the paper by Bunch et al in Nature Scientific Reports, which Earth-logs covered on 8 October 2021. The reactions are summarised by the Retraction Watch website (Criticism engulfs paper claiming an asteroid destroyed Biblical Sodom and Gomorrah Retraction Watch 1 October 2021). It seems that the Chief Editor of Scientific Reports is considering the issues that have been raised. Anyone who has downloaded and read the paper by Bunch et al will have noted the very large amount of data that it cites. It is alleged that there are flaws in the evidence, and that some of the figures may have been falsified. Some of the authors also contributed to the ‘airburst’ hypothesis for onset of the Younger Dryas, covered in Earth-pages several times, which uses similar data. More information can be accessed through Paul Braterman’s comments on the Sodom post 

A Bronze Age catastrophe: the destruction of Sodom and Gomorrah?

“…The sun was risen upon the earth when Lot entered into Zoar. Then the Lord rained upon Sodom and Gomorrah brimstone and fire from the Lord out of heaven. And overthrew those cities, and all the plain, and all the inhabitants of the cities, and that which grew upon the ground. But his wife looked back from behind him, and she became a pillar of salt …”

This is the second catastrophe recorded in the Old Testament of the King James Bible (Genesis 19:23-26), after the Noachian Flood (Genesis 7 and 8). The Flood is now regarded by many geoscientists to be a passed-down and mythologised account of the rapid filling of the Black Sea when the Bosporus was breached around 7600 years ago, as global see level rose in the early Neolithic. Eleven Chapters and a great many begotten people later comes the dramatic punishment of the ‘sinners’ of Sodom and Gomorrah. The two legendary settlements are now considered to have been in the Lower Jordan Valley near the Dead Sea. Being on the major strike-slip fault that defines the Jordan Rift, related to the long-active spreading of the Red Sea, the most obvious rationalisation of the myth is a major earthquake. The sedimentary sequence contains sulfide-rich clays and silts, as well as thick salt beds. Major seismicity would have liquidised saturated sediments full of supersaturated salt water and the release of large volumes of hydrogen sulfide gas. There are also remains of early settlements in the form of large mounds known locally as ‘talls’. The largest  and archaeologically  most productive of these is Tall el Hammam in Jordan, whose excavation has proceeded since 2005. It lies just to the north of the Dead Sea on the eastern flank of the Jordan valley, 15 km from Jericho on the occupied West Bank.

The Tall el Hammam mound is formed from layers of debris, mainly of mud bricks, dwellings being built again and again on the remains of earlier ones. It seems to have been continuously occupied for three millennia after 6650 ka ago (4700 BCE) at the core of a presumably grain-based city state with upwards of 10 thousand inhabitants. The site was destroyed around 3600 Ka (1650 BCE). The catastrophic earthquake hypothesis can be neither confirmed nor refuted, but the destruction toppled structures with walls up to 4 m thick.. Whatever the event, 15 years of excavation have revealed that it was one of extremely high energy. There is evidence for pulverisation of mud bricks and at some dwellings they were apparently blown off-site: a possibility in a large magnitude earthquake. Unusually, however, mud bricks and clay used in pottery and roofing had been partially melted during the final destruction. Various analyses suggest temperatures were as high as 2000 °C.

Top – oblique aerial view of the mound at Tal el Hammam looking to the south-west; Bottom – the Lower Jordan Valley and Bronze age talls superimposed by the extent of the area devastated by the 1908 Tunguska air-burst. (credit: Bunch et al. 2021, Figs 1b and 52)

A detailed summary of results from the Tall el Hammam site has just appeared (Bunch T.E., and 20 others 2021. A Tunguska sized airburst destroyed Tall el-Hammam a Middle Bronze Age city in the Jordan Valley near the Dead SeaNature Scientific Reports, v. 11, article 18632; DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-97778-3). As the title indicates, it comes to an astonishing conclusion, which rests on a large range of archaeological and geochemical data that go well beyond the earlier discovery of the tall’s destruction at very high temperatures. Radiocarbon dates of 26 samples from the destruction layer reveal that it happened in 1661±21 BCE – the mid- to late Bronze Age, as also suggested by the styles of a variety of artefacts. The most revealing data have emerged from the debris that caps the archaeological section, particularly fine-grained materials in it. There are mineral grains indicating that sand-sized grains were melted, some to form spherules or droplets of glass. Even highly refractory minerals such as zircon and chromite were melted. Mixed in with the resulting glasses are tiny nuggets of metals, including platinum-group metals. As well as high temperatures the event involved intense mechanical shock that produced tell-tale lamellae in quartz grains, familiar from sites of known extraterrestrial impacts. One specimen shows a micro-crater produced by a grain of carbonaceous material, which is now made up of ~ 1 μm diamond-like carbon (diamondoids) crystals. There is abundant evidence of directionality in the form of linear distributions of ceramic shards and carbonised cereal grains that seem to have been consistently transported in a SW to NE direction: a kind of high-speed ‘blow-over’. In the debris are also fragments of pulverised bone, most too small to assign to species. But among them are two highly damaged human skulls and isolated and charred human limb- and pelvic bones. Forensic analysis suggests at least two individuals were decapitated, dismembered and incinerated during the catastrophe. Isolated scatters of recognisable human bones indicate at least 10 people who suffered a similar death. Finally the destruction layer is marked by an unusually high concentration of salt, some of which has been melted.

Such a range of evidence is difficult to reconcile by hypotheses citing warfare, accidental burning, tornadoes or earthquakes. However, the diversity of phenomena associated with the destruction of Tall el Hammam has been compared with data from nuclear explosion sites, suggesting the huge power of the event. The authors turned to evidence linked to the air-burst detonation of a cosmic body over Tunguska, Siberia in 1908 which had a power estimated at between 12- to 23 megatonnes of TNT equivalent. Such an event seems to fit the fate of Tall el Hammam. The Tunguska event devastated an area of 2200 km2. The tall and another at Jericho lies within such an area. Perhaps not coincidentally, the destruction of Jericho was also in the mid- to late Bronze Age sometime between 1686 and 1626 BCE: i.e. statistically coeval with that of Tall el Hammam.

Archaeologists working in the Lower Jordan Valley have examined 15 other talls and more than a hundred lesser inhabited sites and have concluded that all of them were abandoned at the end of the Middle Bronze Age. The whole area is devoid of evidence for agricultural settlements for the following three to six centuries, although there are traces of pastoralist activity. The high amount of salt in the Tall el Hammam debris, if spread over the whole area would have rendered its soils infertile until it was eventually flushed out by rainfall and runoff. If, indeed, the event matches the biblical account of Sodom and Gomorrah, then Lot and his remmaing companions would have found it difficult to survive without invading the lands of other people who had escaped, much as recorded later in Genesis. Of more concern is what will become of Ted Bunch and his 20 US colleagues? Will they be charged with blasphemy?

See also: Tunguska-Sized Impact Destroyed Jordan Valley City 3,670 Years Ago, SciNews, 29 September 2021; Did an impact affect hunter gatherers at the start of the Younger Dryas? Earth-logs, 3 July 2020.

Climate change reducing Earth’s albedo

According to a new study (Goode, P. R.et al. 2021. Earth’s albedo 1998–2017 as measured from earthshine. Geophysical Research Letters, v. 48, article e2021GL094888; DOI: 10.1029/2021GL094888) the ability of the Earth to reflect solar radiation back into space has been decreasing significantly over the last two decades. The conclusion has arisen from measurements of the brightness of the lunar surface. A new Moon is barely visible, apart from a thin sliver illuminated by the Sun. Its overall faint brightness is due to sunlight reflected from the Earth’s surface that faces the Moon: so-called ‘earthshine’. New Moons occurs when it is above the lit side of the Earth, so they appear during daylight hours. Earthshine depends on the ability of the Earth’s surface and cloud cover to reflect solar radiation, or its albedo. Albedo was high during the last ice age because of continental ice sheets and it can also occur when there is an unusually large percentage of cloud cover or a lot of dust and aerosols in the atmosphere, perhaps after a large volcanic eruption. High albedo leads to global cooling. Decreased albedo allows the atmosphere to heat up, and conspires with the greenhouse effect to produce global warming.

Philip Goode and his colleagues measured earthshine on the Moon between 1998 and 2017 to precisely determine daily, monthly, seasonal, yearly and decadal changes in terrestrial albedo. The Earth reflects roughly 30% of the solar energy that falls on it, although it varies with Earth’s rotation, depending on the proportion of land to ocean that is sunlit. Over the two decades earthshine decreased gradually by ~0.5 W m-2, indicating a 0.5% decrease in Earth’s albedo and a corresponding increase in the amount of solar energy received at the land and ocean surfaces. To put this in perspective the estimated warming from anthropogenic greenhouse emissions over the same period increased by just a little more (0.6 W m-2). Albedo decrease is reinforcing the greenhouse effect.

Sea-surface temperature anomalies over the Pacific Ocean during a ‘positive’ phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation – reversal to a ‘negative’ phase cools the eastern Pacific and warms the west (Credit: Wikipedia)

Although it might seem that increased seasonal melting of polar sea ice would have the main effect on albedo, this is not borne out by the earthshine data. What is strongly implicated is a decrease over the Eastern Pacific Ocean of highly reflective low-altitude clouds. That might seem counterintuitive, since warming of the sea surface increases evaporation, but the reduced low-cloud cover has been measured from satellites. Many scientists and most climate-change deniers have thought that an increase in cloud cover at low latitudes and thus albedo would moderate surface warming. The opposite seems to be happening. The key may lie in one of the Earth’s largest climate phenomena, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This has a major effect on global climate through long-distance connections (teleconnections) to other climatic processes. The satellite data hint at the changes in albedo of the Western Hemisphere having been related to a long-term reversal in the PDO. The Earth’s climate system increasingly reveals its enormous complexity.

See also: Earth is dimming due to climate change, Science Daily, 30 September 2021.

Earliest Americans and Denisovan art

It was Mary Leakey’s jaw-dropping discovery in the 1970s of the footprints of two adult Australopithecus afarensis and an accompanying juvenile in 3.6 Ma-old volcanic ash at Laetoli, Tanzania that provided the oldest palpable evidence of a bipedal hominin species. Just seeing a high-resolution image of this now legendary trackway made me determined to call my book on Earth and human evolution Stepping Stones: the Making of our Homeworld. Human footprints have figured several times in Earth-logs articles. A jumble of footprints in 1.0 to 0.78 Ma old Pleistocene interglacial sediments at Happisbugh on England’s Norfolk coast marks the presence there of Homo antecessor: the earliest known, northern Europeans. In The first volcanologists (March 2003) I noted the discovery of evidence that Neanderthal children played in 350 ka volcanic ash on the Roccamonfina volcano in Italy. The emotion generated by seeing such relics has never left me. Two similarly important proofs of human presence emerged in September 2021.

Footprints thought to have been made by children and teenagers between 23 and 21 thousand years ago in lake shore muds at White Sands, New Mexico. (Credit Bennett et al. 2021)

Since 2011 a variety of evidence has accumulated that the Americas began to be populated by anatomically modern humans before what had long been assumed to be the ‘first arrivals’: the Clovis people who made finely-worked stone spear points first found in 13 ka-old sediments in New Mexico. To the pre-Clovis artefacts that suggested earlier immigrations have been added indisputable signs of human presence even earlier than anticipated. They were uncovered in lake sediments beneath the gypsum sand dunes of White Sands National Park in New Mexico. The site is not far from where Robert Oppenheimer exclaimed to himself ‘Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds’ after he witnessed his creation, the first detonation of a nuclear weapon on 9 July 1945. These lake sediments have yielded thousands of human and animal footprints over the years, but the latest have been dated at between 23 to 21 ka (Bennett, M.R. and 13 others 2021. Evidence of humans in North America during the Last Glacial Maximum. Science, v. 373, p. 1528-1531; DOI: 10.1126/science.abg7586). As with the Happisburgh and Roccamonfina human trackways, size analysis suggests that they were made mainly by children and teenagers! Other animal trackways show that the lake edge was teeming with game at the height of the last Ice Age: abundant food for hunter-gatherers generally results in lots of free time. So maybe these early American people were having fun too. When ice sheets were at their maximum extent sea level had fallen, leaving the Bering Strait dry. The broad Beringia land-bridge made the Americas accessible from Eurasia. Whatever objections have previously been raised as regards human penetration south from Alaska during the Last Glacial Maximum, the White Sands find sweeps them away; people overcame whatever obstacles there were.

Travertine outcrop covered with hand- and footprints at Quesang on the Tibetan Plateau (Credit: Zhang et al., Fig. 1c)

Much older footprints and handprints, preserved in a biogenic carbonate (travertine) deposit from the Tibetan Plateau – more than 4,000 metres above sea level – are reported in an article soon to be published by Elsevier (Zhang, D.D. and 17 others 2021. Earliest parietal art: hominin hand and foot traces from the middle Pleistocene of Tibet, Science Bulletin v 66 online; DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2021.09.001). Travertine forms when calcium carbonate is precipitated from lime-rich spring water onto films of algae or bacteria. At first it is soft and spongy, hardening as more carbonate is precipitated and solidifying when dried out to form a porous rock. People made a jumble of prints when they pressed their hands and feet into the originally spongy biofilm. Three-dimensional images of the slab provide the basis for interpreting how the prints were made. There are 5 handprints and 5 footprints. From comparing their sizes with modern humans’ feet and hands, it seems that the handprints were made by a single 12-year-old, and the footprints by a child of about 7. Although the travertine layer would have been steep and slippery none of the prints show signs of falling or sliding. They seem to have been deliberately placed close to one another, with suggestions that at least one thumb was wiggled. The authors argue that the prints are a form of art similar to the hand stencils commonly seen on Palaeolithic cave walls. It could be that a couple of kids took delight in leaving signs that they had been there, ‘messing around’: but still an art form. What is especially exciting is their age, between 169 and 226 ka. The children are unlikely to have been anatomically modern humans, who first reached Tibet only a little before 21 ka. One alternative is that they were Denisovans (see: Denisovan on top of the world, May 2019.

See also: Bennett, M.R. 2021.  Fossil footprints prove humans populated the Americas thousands of years earlier than we thought. The Conversation, 23 September 2021. 2021Metcalf, T. 2021. Art or not? Ancient handprints spark debate. NBC News, 16 September 2021.

Influence of massive igneous intrusions on end-Triassic mass extinction

About 200 Ma ago, the break-up of the Pangaea supercontinent was imminent. The signs of impending events are spread through the eastern seaboard of North America, West Africa and central and northern South America. Today, they take the form of isolated patches of continental flood basalts, dyke swarms – probably the feeders for much more extensive flood volcanism – and large intrusive sills. Break-up began with the separation of North America from Africa and the start of sea-floor spreading that began to form the Central Atlantic Ocean: hence the name Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP) for the igneous activity. It all kicked off at the time of the Triassic-Jurassic stratigraphic boundary, and a mass extinction with a similar magnitude to that at the end of the Cretaceous. Disappearances of animals in the oceans and on continents were selective rather than general, as were extinctions of land plants. The mass extinction is estimated to have taken about ten thousand years. It left a great variety of ecological niches ready for re-occupation. On land a small group of reptiles with a substantial destiny entered some of these vacant niches. They evolved explosively to the plethora of later dinosaurs as their descendants became separated as a result of continental drift and adaptive radiation.

Flood basalts of the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province in Morocco (Credit: Andrea Marzoli)

The end-Triassic mass extinction, like three others of the Big Five, was thus closely associated in time with massive continental flood volcanism: indeed one of the largest such events. Within at most 10 ka large theropod dinosaurs entered the early Jurassic scene of eastern North America. The Jurassic was a greenhouse world whose atmosphere had about five times more CO2, a mean global surface temperature between 5 and 10°C higher and deep ocean temperatures 8°C above those at present. Was mantle carbon transported by CAMP magmas the main source (widely assumed until recently) or, as during the end-Permian mass extinction, was buried organic carbon responsible? A multinational group of geoscientists have closely examined samples from a one million cubic kilometre stack of intrusive basaltic sills, dated at 201 Ma, in the Amazon basin of Brazil that amount to about a third of all CAMP magmatism (Capriolo, M. and 11 others 2021. Massive methane fluxing from magma–sediment interaction in the end-Triassic Central Atlantic Magmatic ProvinceNature Communications, v. 12, article 5534; DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25510-w).

The team focussed on fluid inclusions in quartz within the basaltic sills that formed during the late stages of their crystallisation. The tiny inclusions contain methane gas and tiny crystals of halite (NaCl) as well as liquid water. Such was the bulk composition of the intrusive magma that the presence of around 5% of quartz in the basalts would be impossible without their magma having assimilated large volumes of silica-rich sedimentary rocks such as shales. The host rocks for the huge slab of igneous sills are sediments of Palaeozoic age: a ready source for contamination by both organic carbon and salt. The presence of methane in the inclusions suggests that more complex hydrocarbons had been ‘cracked’ by thermal metamorphism. Moreover, it is highly unlikely to have been derived from the mantle, partly because methane has been experimentally shown not to be soluble in basaltic magmas whereas CO2 is. The authors conclude that both quartz and methane entered the sills in hydrothermal fluids generated in adjacent sediments. Thermal metamorphism of the sediments would also have driven such fluids to the surface to inject methane directly to the atmosphere. Methane is 25 times as potent as carbon dioxide at trapping heat in the atmosphere, yet it combines with the hydroxyl (OH) radical to form CO2 and water vapour within about 12 years. Nevertheless during continuous emission methane traps 84 times more heat in the atmosphere than would an equivalent mass of carbon dioxide.

Calculations suggest about seven trillion tonnes of methane were generated by the CAMP intrusions in Brazil. Had the magmas mainly been extruded as flood basalts then perhaps global warming at the close of the Triassic would have been far less. Extinctions and subsequent biological evolution would have taken very different paths; dinosaurs may not have exploded onto the terrestrial scene so dramatically during the remaining 185 Ma of the Mesozoic. So it seems important to attempt an explanation of why CAMP magmas in Brazil did not rise to the surface but stayed buried as such stupendous igneous intrusions. Work on smaller intrusive sills suggests that magmas that are denser than the rocks that they pass through – as in a large, thick sedimentary basin – are forced by gravity to take a lateral ‘line of least resistance’ to intrude along sedimentary bedding. That would be aided by the enormous pressure of steam boiled from wet sedimentary rocks forcing beds apart. In areas where only thin sedimentary cover rests on crystalline, more dense igneous and metamorphic rocks, basaltic magma has a greater likelihood of rising through vertical dyke swarms to reach the surface and form lava floods.

Anthropocene more an Event than an Epoch.

The Vattenfall lignite mine in Germany; the Anthropocene personified

The issue of whether or not to assign the time span during which human activities have been significantly affecting the planet and its interwoven Earth Systems has been dragging on since the term ‘Anthropocene’ was first proposed more than two decades ago. A suggestion that may resolve matters, both amicably and with a degree of scientific sense, has emerged in a short letter to the major scientific journal Nature, written by six eminent scientists (Bauer, A.M. et al. 2021. Anthropocene: event or epoch? Nature, v. 597, p. 332; DOI: 10.1038/d41586-021-02448-z). The full text is below

The concept of the Anthropocene has inspired more than two decades of constructive scholarship and public discussion. Yet much of this work seems to us incompatible with the proposal to define the Anthropocene as an epoch or series in the geological timescale, with a precise start date and stratigraphic boundary in the mid-twentieth century. As geologists, archaeologists, environmental scientists and geographers, we have another approach to suggest: recognize the Anthropocene as an ongoing geological event.

The problems with demarcating the Anthropocene as a globally synchronous change in human–environment relations, occurring in 1950 or otherwise, have long been evident (P. J. Crutzen and E. F. Stoermer IGBP Newsletter 41, 17–18; 2000). As an ongoing geological event, it would be analogous to other major transformative events, such as the Great Oxidation Event (starting around 2.4 billion years ago) or the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event (around 500 million years ago).

Unlike formally defined epochs or series, geological events can encompass spatial and temporal heterogeneity and the diverse processes — environmental and now social — that interact to produce global environmental changes. Defining the Anthropocene in this way would, in our view, better engage with how the term has been used and criticized across the scholarly world.”

AUTHORS: Andrew M. Bauer, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA; Matthew Edgeworth, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK;  Lucy E. Edwards, Florence Bascom Geoscience Center, Reston, Virginia, USAErle C. Ellis, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Maryland, USA ; Philip Gibbard, Scott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK;  Dorothy J. Merritts, Franklin and Marshall College, Lancaster, Pennsylvania, USA.

I have been grousing about the attempt to assign Epoch/Series status to the Anthropocene for quite a while (you can follow the development of my personal opinions by entering ‘Anthropocene’ in the Search Earth-logs box). In general I believe that the proposal being debated is scientifically absurd, and a mere justification for getting a political banner to wave. What the six authors of this letter propose seems eminently sensible. I hope it is accepted by International Commission on Stratigraphy as a solution to the increasingly sterile discussions that continue to wash to and fro in our community. Then perhaps the focus can be on action rather than propaganda.

As things have stood since 21 May 2019, a proposal to accept the Anthropocene as a formal chrono-stratigraphic unit defined by a GSSP at its base around the middle of the 20th century is before the ICS and the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS) for ratification. It was accepted by 88% of the 34-strong Anthropocene Working Group of the ICS Subcommission on Quaternary Stratigraphy. But that proposal has yet to be ratified by either the ICS or IUGS. Interestingly, one of the main Anthropocene proponents was recently replaced as chair of the Working Group.

Opportunities for anatomically modern humans to have left Africa

Key ages of early H. sapiens, Neanderthals and Denisovans (credit: Delson, 2019; Fig. 1)

For almost 2 million years humans have migrated long distances, the earliest example of a move out of Africa being the Georgian Homo erectus specimens (see: First out of Africa? November 2003). As regards H. sapiens – anatomically modern humans (AMH) – the earliest fossils, found at Jebel Irhoud in Morocco, are about 300 ka old. By 260 ka they were present at several sites that span the African continent. The first sign of AMH having left Africa are fossils found at Mislaya in Israel and Apidima in Greece – dated to 177 and 210 to 170 ka respectively – and 125 ka-old tools tentatively attributed to AMH in the Arabian Peninsula (see: Arabia : staging post for human migrations?, September 2014). There is also genetically dated evidence of geneflow from Homo sapiens into Neanderthal DNA between 130 to 250 ka ago. The evidence for an early ‘Out of Africa’ migration by AMH is concrete but very sparse, a fuller story of our permanently colonising all habitable parts of the world only emerging for times after about 65 ka.

It is easy to appreciate that the main hindrance for palaeo-anthropological research into human migration centres on the issue of where to look for evidence, a great many discoveries owing more to luck than to a strategic approach. And, of course, once interesting sites are found researchers congregate there. There is a limited number of active palaeoanthropologists of whom only a proportion engage regularly in field exploration. And there is also an element of the old gold prospectors adage: ‘If you want to find elephants, go to elephant country’! But there are other issues connected with discoveries. When was it possible for AMH to make transcontinental journeys and what routes would have been feasible from time to time? Robert Beyer of the Cambridge University with scientists from New Zealand, Estonia and the UK have devised a rational approach to the questions of optimum times and routes for major migration (Beyer, R.M., et al. 2021. Climatic windows for human migration out of Africa in the past 300,000 yearsNature Communications, v.  12, article 4889; DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24779-1). Just two routes out of Africa have been considered feasible: by crossing the Strait of Bab el Mandab from Djibouti and southern Eritrea to the Yemen, and following the Nile northwards to access Eurasia via the Levant. The first depends to some extent on how wide the Strait was; depending on sea level fluctuations, it has varied from 4 to 20 km during the last 300 ka. Exit by way of both routes would also have depended on vegetation, game and drinking water supplies that varying amounts of rainfall would have supported.

Assessing the feasibility of crossing the southern Red Sea at different times is fairly easy. Sea level fluctuates according to the amount of water locked in the ice caps of Antarctica and Greenland and on the land glaciated during ice ages in northern North America and Scandinavia. Oxygen isotopes in Pleistocene sea-floor sediments and today’s ice caps reveal that variation. Being one of the world’s most important seaways the bathymetry of the Red Sea is known in considerable detail. At present the minimum sea distance needed to cross the Strait of Bab el Mandab is about 21 km. At the lowest sea levels during the Pleistocene the sea journey was reduced to slightly less than 5 km, which would not have required sophisticated boats or seafaring skills. There is evidence that AMH and earlier humans occupied the western shore of the Red Sea to use its rich marine resources, but none for boats or for habitation of the Yemeni coastline. However, calculations by Beyer et al. of sea level fluctuations during the last 300 ka show that for more than half that time the sea crossing was less than 7 km thanks to a shallow continental shelf and a very narrow stretch of deep water. Clearly the varying width of the Strait is not a useful guide to windows of opportunity for migration via that route. Except for warm interglacials and a few interstadials, people could have crossed at any time provided that the ecosystems on either side could sustain them.

Annual precipitation during each millennium of the Late Pleistocene for the two most likely out-of-Africa routes. The double green lines show the lower level of tolerance for hunter gatherers. The percentage of decades during which ANH could sustain themselves is colour-coded in blues. (Credit: Beyer et al. Fig 2)

Turning to climatic fluctuations, especially that of rainfall, Beyer et al. first estimated the lowest rainfall that hunter-gatherers can survive from the distribution of surviving groups according to annual precipitation and the biomass of grazing prey animals in their habitats. The lower limit is about 90 mm per year. Using the climate record for the Late-Pleistocene from proxies, such as oxygen isotopes, in global climate modelling produces a series of high-resolution ‘time-lapse snapshots’ of conditions in the geographic areas of interest – the Nile-Levant route and that from the Horn of Africa to Yemen. The results are expressed as the percentage of decades in each thousand-year interval that hunter-gatherers could sustain themselves under prevailing climatic conditions in the two regions. What seems clear from the figure (above) is that the southern, Bab el Mandab route had considerable potential for AMH migrants. The northern one looks as if it was more risky, as might be expected from today’s dominant aridity away from the Mediterranean and Gulf coasts. The northern route seems to have been just about feasible for these periods: 245-230; 220-210; 206-197; 132-94; 85-82; ~75 and ~72 ka. The climatic windows for possible migration via the southern route are: ~290; 275-240 (with optimums at ~273, ~269, ~246 and ~243); 230-210; 203-200; 182-145; 135-118; 112; 107; 70-30; 18-13 ka. The well documented beginning of major AMH migration into Eurasia was around 75 to 60 ka, which the southern route would most favour on climatic grounds. Yet before that there are many possibilities involving either route. Any AMH finds outside Africa before 250, and between 190-133 ka seem almost certain to have been via the southern route, based on arid conditions in the north. But, of course, there would have been other factors at play encouraging or deterring migration via either route. So perhaps not every climatic opportunity was exploited.

Beyer and colleagues have provided a basis for plenty of discussion and shifts in focus for future palaeo-anthropological work. One thing to bear in mind is that different humans may also have taken up the opportunities; for example, some Neanderthals are now suspected to have migrated back to Africa in the last 300 ka.

See also: Groucutt, H.S  and 22 others 2021. Multiple hominin dispersals into Southwest Asia over the past 400,000 years. Nature, ; DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03863-y

When Greenland was a warm place

On 14-15 August 2021 it rained for the first time since records began at the highest point on the Greenland ice cap. Summit Camp at 3.216 m is run by the US National Science Foundation, which set it up in 1989, and is famous for climate data gleaned from two deep ice cores there. This odd event came at a time when surface melting of the ice cap covered 870 thousand km2: over half of its total 1.7 million km2 extent: a sure sign of global warming. The average maximum temperature in August at Summit is -14°C, but since the mid 20th century the Arctic has been warming at about twice the global rate. Under naturally fluctuating climatic conditions during the Pleistocene, associated with glacial-interglacial cycles, Greenland may have been ice-free for extended periods, perhaps as long as a quarter of a million years around 1.1 Ma ago. If 75% of the up to 3 km thick ice on Greenland melted that would add 5 to 6 m to global sea level, perhaps as early as 2100 if current rates of climate warming persist.

The edge of the ice cap in NE Greenland (credit: Wikipedia)

The worst scenario is runaway warming on the scale of that which took place 56 Ma ago during the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) when global mean temperature rose by between 5 to 8°C at a rate comparable with what the planet is experiencing now as a result of growth in the world economy. In fact, the CO2 released during the PETM emerged at a rate that was only about tenth of modern anthropogenic emissions  Sediments that span the Palaeocene-Eocene boundary occur in NE Greenland, a study of which was recently published by scientists from Denmark, Greenland, the UK, Australia and Poland (Hovikoski, J. and 13 others 2021. Paleocene-Eocene volcanic segmentation of the Norwegian-Greenland seaway reorganized high-latitude ocean circulation. Communications Earth & Environment, v. 2, article 172; DOI: 10.1038/s43247-021-00249-w). The greenhouse world of NE Greenland that lay between 70 and 80°N then, as it still does, was an area alternating between shallow marine and terrestrial conditions, the latter characterised by coastal plain and floodplain sediments deposited in estuaries, deltas and lakes. They include coals derived from lush, wooded swamps, inhabited by hippo-like ungulates, primates and reptiles.

At that time the opening of the northern part of the North Atlantic had barely begun, with little chance for an equivalent of the Gulf Stream to have had a warming influence on the Arctic. Shortly after the PETM volcanism began in earnest, to form the flood basalts of the North Atlantic Igneous Province. Each lava flow is capped by red soil or bole: further evidence for a warm, humid climate and rapid chemical weathering. As well as lava build-up, tectonic forces resulted in uplift, effectively opening migration routes for animals and land plants to colonise the benign – for such high latitudes – conditions and perhaps escape the far hotter conditions further south.

The situation now is much different, with the potential for even more rapid melting of the Greenland ice cap to flood freshwater into the North Atlantic, as is currently beginning. Diluting surface seawater reduces its density and thus its tendency to sink, which is the main driving force that pulls warmer water towards high-latitudes in the form of the Gulf Stream. Slowing and even shutting down its influence may have an effect that contradicts the general tendency for global warming – a cooling trend at mid- to high latitudes with chaotic effects on atmospheric pressure systems, the jet stream and weather in general.

See also: Barham, M. et al. 2021. When Greenland was green: rapid global warming 55 million years ago shows us what the future may hold. The Conversation, 23 August 2021.

Geothermal heat from coalfields: a ‘green’ revolution?

Sooner rather than later all energy users will be forced to change their source of energy to ones that do not involve fossil fuels. On average, 84% of household energy consumption is for space heating and hot water. Reducing domestic greenhouse gas emissions must replace the current dominance of coal, natural gas and oil in keeping ourselves warm and clean. One widely suggested solution is the use of heat pumps to ‘concentrate’ the solar energy that is temporarily stored in air or in the soil and rock just beneath our homes and gardens: air- and ground-source heating systems. Heat pumps rely on overcoming the Second Law of Thermodynamics, as do refrigerators and air conditioners. The Law implies that hot things always cool down; that is, energy cannot move ‘of its own accord’ from a cooler source to a warmer destination. But reversing the natural flow of heat energy is possible. To achieve this involves work in some form. There are several kinds of heat pumps powered by electricity, the simplest using a vapour compression cycle, as in refrigeration, which ‘pumps’ heat out of a fridge interior or a room. So, warm air is emitted to the outside world. Reverse the flow and the pump becomes a device that captures heat from a cold source – either a gas or a fluid – and delivers it for a domestic or industrial use.

In the case of a ground-source heat pump, the energy delivered also includes geothermal heat flowing from deep in the Earth: ultimately from radioactive decay of unstable isotopes bound up in rocks and the minerals they contain. At the surface, this supply is far less than solar heating. Yet, because of the Second Law of Thermodynamics it flows from a much hotter source: the Earth’s mantle. The deeper down, the hotter it gets. Beneath most of the continental surface temperature increases at between 15 to 35°C per kilometre. Without surface air being circulated to the deepest parts of mines it would be impossible to work in them. I remember as a school student visiting the deepest level of Maltby Main coal mine in South Yorkshire. Because my school was co-educational, our guide shouted ahead to the miners that women were coming – these miners normally worked in just helmet, boots and a jock strap! Dozens of them rushed frantically to find their trousers. Maltby Main’s shafts reached almost a kilometre below the surface and without ventilation the air temperature would have been more than 50°C. As it was, it was well above 30 degrees

As well as methane (‘fire damp’), CO2 (‘choke damp’) and roof collapse, one of the main hazards of coal mining is flooding by groundwater. When operational, before the Conservative governments of the 1980s and early 90s set about destroying deep-coal mining in Britain, all mines had massive pumps to remove water from their deepest levels or ‘sumps’. It is hazardous stuff, being highly acidic and rich in dissolved metals – including arsenic in some areas – as well as being warm: a low-temperature hydrothermal fluid. In many cases such water seeps to the surface from the now flooded mine workings, and precipitates brightly coloured iron hydroxides. Most of the abandoned British coalfields are plagued by such minewater escaping to the surface. Untreated it contaminates surface water, soils and sediments, posing threats to vegetation, wild life and people. Yet, it has considerable potential as a heat source, especially for community heating systems based on large-scale heat pumps (Farr, G. et al. 2020. The temperature of Britain’s coalfields. Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology, v. 54, article qjegh2020-109; DOI: 10.1144/qjegh2020-109).

Pollution of South Esk river near Edinburgh by water from old coal-mine workings (Credit: EdinburghLive, 11 June 2020)

For decades, geothermal energy has been touted as a near-ideal renewable, carbon-free resource, using natural hot-spring systems in volcanically active areas, such as Iceland and New Zealand, from areas of unusually high heat flow over highly radioactive granite intrusions or from very deep sedimentary aquifers as exploited in parts of the Paris Basin. But in Britain various optimistic projects have arisen and then faded away. All relied on pumping surface water down boreholes to depths that achieve high temperatures, returning it to the surface at around 60°C to the surface and then piping it to users: very expensive. About a quarter of the population live above the former coalfields of Britain. Around 2.2 million gigawatt hours of geothermal heat are currently stored in flooded mine workings, with the possibility of further expansion. The UK Coal Authority has about 40 minewater pumping stations aimed at reducing pollution, which remove 3,000 l s-1 at an average temperature of around 9-18°C. Expressed in terms of energy content this amounts to 63 MW if recovered. But this is just scratching the surface of the potential for large-scale district heating based on heat pumps, such as that planned at Seaham, County Durham to heat 1500 new homes. Community heating and wastewater treatment can be combined for all the former coal mining areas in Central Scotland, the North of England and Midlands and South Wales where population densities are still very high

See also: Lane, A.2021. How flooded coalmines could heat homes. BBC Future 7 July 2020. Taylor, M. 2021. Abandoned pits of former mining town fuel green revolution. The Guardian, 10 August 2021.

Apocalypse Soon: Will current global warming trigger a mass extinction?

Since the start of 2020 I doubt there has been much field research. But such a vast amount of data has been amassed over the years that there must be opportunities to keep the academic pot boiling. One way is to look for new correlations between different kinds of data. For instance matching the decades-old time series of extinctions with those of other parameters that have changed over geological time. At a time of growing concern about anthropogenic climate change a group based at the State Key Laboratory of Biogeology and Environmental Geology, at China University of Geosciences, Wuhan have checked the extinction rates of marine fossils over the last 450 Ma against variations in sea-surface temperature (Song, H. et al 2021. Thresholds of temperature change for mass extinctions. Nature Communications, v. 12, Article number 4694; DOI: 0.1038/s41467-021-25019-2).

Extinction data are usually presented in time ‘bins’ based on the number of disappearances of fossil genera in one or a number of geological Stages – the finest divisions of the stratigraphic column. The growing data set for sea-surface temperatures derived using oxygen isotopes from marine fossil shells is more continuous, being derived from many different layers of suitable sedimentary rock within a Stage. Clearly, the two kinds of data have to be expressed in a similar way to check for correlations. Haijun Song and co-workers converted both the extinction and temperature time series to 45 time ‘bins’, each around 10 Ma long. They express the binned climatic data in two ways: as the largest temperature change (°C) and the highest rate of temperature change (°C Ma-1) within each bin. That is, they expressed to some extent the greater continuity of seawater temperature data as well as matching them to those for extinctions.

Changes since the end of the Ordovician: red = extinction rate in time bins; green = the greatest magnitude of change in temperature in each bin; blue- the greatest rate of temperature change in each bin. Grey bars show mass extinctions (Credit: Song et al., Fig 1)

There are good correlations between the climatic and extinction data, particularly for mass extinctions. Bearing in mind that mass extinctions take place far more rapidly than can be expressed with 10 Ma time bins, the authors were concerned that bias could creep into the binned extinction data. They were able to discount this by examining both data sets in finer detail at the times of the ‘Big 5’ extinctions. Earlier research had identified warming episodes around the times of each mass extinction, often implicating greenhouse-gas emissions from Large Igneous Provinces. Yet there are other factors that may have influenced the 7 ‘lesser’ mass extinctions in the fossil record. The authors are sufficiently confident in the correlations they have revealed to suggest thresholds that seem to have launched major mass extinctions: greater than 5.2 °C and 10 °C Ma-1 for magnitudes and rates of sea-surface temperature change, respectively.

In the context of the modern climate, the data analysis predicts that a rise of 5.2 °C above the preindustrial mean global temperature spells extinctions of ‘Big Five’ magnitude. The rate of temperature increase since 1880 – 0.08 ° per decade – is hugely faster than that expressed by the data that span the last 450 Ma. This is more alarming than the stark Sixth Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC released on 9 August 2021.