Early hominin dispersal in Eurasia

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Evidence from Dmanisi in Georgia that Homo erectus may have been the first advanced hominin to leave Africa about 1.8 Ma ago was a big surprise (see: First out of Africa? November 2003). Remains of five individuals included one skull of an aged person who face was so deformed that he or she must have been cared for by others for many years. So, a second surprise from Dmanisi was that human empathy arose far earlier than most people believed. Since 2002 there has been only a single further find of hominin bones of such antiquity, at Longgudong in central China. For the period between 1.0 and 2.0 Ma eight other sites in Eurasia have yielded hominin remains. If finds of stone tools and evidence of deliberate butchery – cut marks on prey animals’ bones – are accepted as tell-tale signs, the Eurasian hominin record is considerably larger, and longer,. There are 11 Eurasian sites that have yielded such evidence – but no hominin remains – that are older than Longgudong: in Russia, China, the Middle East, North Africa and northern India. The oldest, at Masol in northern India is 2.6 Ma old. In January 2025 the earliest European evidence for hominin activity was reported from Grăunceanu in Romania (Curran, S.C. and 15 others 2025. Hominin presence in Eurasia by at least 1.95 million years ago. Nature Communications, v. 16, article 836; DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-56154-9) in the form of animal bones showing clear signs of butchery, as well as stone tools, but no hominin fossils.

Animal bones showing cut marks from the 1.95 Ma old Grăunceanu site in Romania. (Credit: Curran et al. 2025, Figs 2A and C)

There were stone-tool makers who butchered prey in Africa as early as 3.4 Ma ago (see: Stone tools go even further back; May 2015), but without direct evidence of which hominin was involved. Several possible candidates have been suggested: Australopithecus; Kenyanthropus; Paranthropus. The earliest known African remains of H. erectus have been dated at around 2.0 Ma. So, all that can be said with some certainty about the pre-2 Ma migrants to Eurasia, until fossils of that antiquity are found, is that they were hominins of some kind: maybe advanced australopithecines, paranthropoids or early humans. Those from Longgudong and Dmanisi probably are early Homo erectus, and 2 others (1.7 and 1.6 Ma) from China have been designated similarly. Younger, pre-1.0 Ma Eurasian hominins from Israel, Indonesia, Spain and Turkey are currently un-named at the species level, but are allegedly members of the genus Homo.

So, what can be teased from the early Eurasian hominin finds? Some certainly travelled thousands of kilometres from their assumed origins in Africa, but none penetrated further north than about 50°N. Perhaps they could not cope with winters at higher latitudes, especially during ice ages. To reach as far as eastern and western Eurasia suggests that dispersal following exit from Africa would have taken many generations. There is no reason to suppose continual travel; rather the reverse, staying put in areas with abundant resources while they remained available, and then moving on when they became scarce. Climate cycles, first paced at around 40 ka (early Pleistocene) then at around 100 ka (mid Pleistocene and later), would have been the main drivers for hominin population movements, as it would have been for game and vegetation.

After about 3 Ma the 40 ka climate cyclicity evolved to greater differences in global temperature between glacial and interglacial episodes, and even more so after the mid Pleistocene transition to 100 ka cycles (see Wikipedia entry for the mid-Pleistocene Transition). Thus, it seems likely that chances of survival of dispersed bands of hominins decreased over hundreds of millennia. Could populations have survived in particularly favourable areas; i.e. those at low latitudes? If so did both culture and the hominins themselves evolve? Alternatively, was migration in a series of pulses out of Africa and then dispersal in all directions, most ending in regional extinction? Almost certainly, pressures to leave Africa would have been driven by climate, for instance by increased aridity as global temperatures waned and sea-level falls made travel to Eurasia easier. There may also have been secondary, shorter migrations within Eurasia, again driven by environmental changes. Without more data from newly discovered sites we can go little further. Within the 35 known, pre-1 Ma hominin sites there are two clusters: southern and central China, and the Levant, Turkey and Georgia. Could they yield more developments? A 2016 article in Scientific American about Chinese H. erectus finds makes particularly interesting reading in this regard.

Neanderthals and the elusive Denisovans began to establish permanent Eurasian ranges, after roughly 600 ka ago. Both groups survived until after first contact with waves of anatomically modern humans in the last 100 ka, with whom some interbred before vanishing from the record. However, evidence from the DNA of both groups suggests an interesting possibility. Before the two groups split genetically, their common ancestors (H. heidelbergensis or H. antecessor?) apparently interbred with genetically more ancient Eurasian hominins (see Wikipedia entry for Neanderthal evolution). This intriguing hint suggests that more may be discovered when substantial remains of Denisovans – i.e. more than a few teeth and small bones – are discovered and yield more DNA. My guess is such a future development will stem from analysis of early hominin remains in China, currently regarded as H. erectus. See China discovers landmark human evolution fossils. Xinhua News Agency 9 December 2024)

A fully revised edition of Steve Drury’s book Stepping Stones: The Making of Our Home World can now be downloaded as a free eBook

The origin of life on Earth: new developments

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Debates around the origin of Earth’s life and what the first organism was like resemble the mythical search for the Holy Grail. Chivalric romanticists of the late 12th and early 13th centuries were pretty clear about the Grail – some kind of receptacle connected either with the Last Supper or Christ’s crucifixion – but never found it. Two big quests that engage modern science centre on how the chemical building blocks of the earliest cells arose and the last universal common ancestor (LUCA) of all living things. Like the Grail’s location, neither is likely to be fully resolved because they can only be sought in a very roundabout way: both verge on the imaginary. The fossil record is limited to organisms that left skeletal remains, traces of their former presence, and a few degraded organic molecules. The further back in geological time the more sedimentary rock has either been removed by erosion or fundamentally changed at high temperatures and pressures. Both great conundrums can only be addressed by trying to reconstruct processes and organisms that occurred or existed more than 4 billion years ago.

Artistic impression of the early Earth dominated by oceans (Credit: Sci-news.com)

In the 1950s Harold Urey of the University of Chicago and his student Stanley Miller mixed water, methane, ammonia and hydrogen sulfide in lab glassware, heated it up and passed electrical discharges through it. They believed the simple set-up crudely mimicked Hadean conditions at the Earth surface. They were successful in generating more complex organic chemicals than their starting materials, though the early atmosphere and oceans are now considered to have been chemically quite different. Such a ‘Frankenstein’ approach has been repeated since with more success (see Earth-logs April 2024), creating 10 of the 20 amino acids plus the peptide bonds that link them up to make all known proteins, and even amphiphiles, the likely founders of cell walls. The latest attempt has been made by Spanish scientists at the Andalusian Earth Sciences Institute, the Universities of Valladolid and Cadiz, and the International Physics Centre in San Sebastian (Jenewein, C. et al 2024. Concomitant formation of protocells and prebiotic compounds under a plausible early Earth atmosphere. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, v. 122, article 413816122; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.241381612).

Biomorphs formed by polymerisation of HCN (Credit: Jenewein, C. et al 2024, Figure 2)

Jenewein and colleagues claim to have created cell-like structures, or ‘biomorphs’ at nanometre- and micrometre scale – spheres and polyp-like bodies – from a more plausible atmosphere of CO2 , H2O, and N2. These ‘protocells’ seem to have formed from minutely thin (150 to 3000 nanometres) polymer films built from hydrogen cyanide that grew  on the surface of the reaction chamber as electric discharges and UV light generated HCN and more complex ‘prebiotic’ chemicals. Apparently, these films were catalysed by SiO2 (silica) molecules from the glass reactor. Note:  In the Hadean breakdown of olivine to serpentinite as sea water reacted with ultramafic lavas would have released abundant silica. Serpentinisation also generates hydrogen. Intimate release of gas formed bubbles to create the spherical and polyp-like ‘protocells’. The authors imagine the Hadean global ocean permanently teeming with such microscopic receptacles. Such a veritable ‘primordial soup’ would be able to isolate other small molecules, such as amino acids, oligopeptides, nucleobases, and fatty acids, to generate more complex organic molecules in micro-reactors en route  to the kind of complex, self-sustaining systems we know as life.

So, is it possible to make a reasonable stab at what that first kind of life may have been? It was without doubt single celled. To reproduce it must have carried a genetic code enshrined in DNA, which is unique not only to all species, but to individuals. The key to tracking down LUCA is that it represents the point at which the evolutionary trees of the fundamental domains of modern life life – eukarya (including animals, plants and fungi), bacteria, and archaea – converge to a single evolutionary stem. There is little point in using fossils to resolve this issue because only multicelled life leaves tangible traces, and the first of those was found in 2,100 Ma old sediments in Gabon (see: The earliest multicelled life; July 2010). The key is using AI to compare the genetic sequences of the hugely diverse modern biosphere. Modern molecular phylogenetics and computing power can discern from their similarities and differences the relative order in which various species and broader groups split from others. It can also trace the origins of specific genes that provides clues about earlier genetic associations. Given a rate of mutation the modern differences provide estimates of when each branching occurred. The most recent genetic delving has been achieved by a consortium based at various institutions in Britain, the Netherlands, Hungary and Japan  (Moody, E.R.R. and 18 others 2024. The nature of the last universal common ancestor and its impact on the early Earth system. Nature Ecology & Evolution, v.8, pages 1654–1666; DOI: 10.1038/s41559-024-02461-1).

Moody et al have pushed back the estimated age of LUCA to halfway through the Hadean, between 4.09 to 4.33 billion years (Ga), well beyond the geologically known age of the earliest traces of life (3.5 Ga). That age for LUCA in itself is quite astonishing: it could have been only a couple of hundred million years after the Moon-forming interplanetary collision. Moreover, they have estimated that Darwin’s Ur-organism had a genome of around 2 million base pairs that encoded about 2600 proteins: roughly comparable to living species of bacteria and archaea, and thus probably quite advanced in evolutionary terms. The gene types probably carried by LUCA suggest that it may have been an anaerobic acetogen; i.e. an organism whose metabolism generated acetate (CH3COO−) ions. Acetogens may produce their own food as autotrophs, or metabolise other organisms (heterotrophs). If LUCA was a heterotroph, then it must have subsisted in an ecosystem together with autotrophs which it consumed, possibly by fermentation. To function it also required hydrogen that can be supplied by the breakdown of ultramafic rocks to serpentinites, which tallies with the likely ocean-world with ultramafic igneous crust of the Hadean (see the earlier paragraphs about protocells). If an autotroph, LUCA would have had an abundance of CO2 and H2 to sustain it, and may have provided food for heterotrophs in the early ecosystem. The most remarkable possibility discerned by Moody et al is that LUCA may have had a kind of immune system to stave off viral infection.

The carbon cycle on the Hadean Earth (Credit: Moody et al. 2024; Figure 3e)

The Hadean environment was vastly different to that of modern times: a waterworld seething with volcanism; no continents; a target for errant asteroids and comets; more rapidly spinning with a 12 hour day; a much closer Moon and thus far bigger tides. The genetic template for the biosphere of the following four billion years was laid down then. LUCA and its companions may well have been unique to the Earth, as are their descendants. It is hard to believe that other worlds with the potential for life, even those in the solar system, could have followed a similar biogeochemical course. They may have life, but probably not as we know it  . . .

See also: Ball, P. 2025. Luca is the progenitor of all life on Earth. But its genesis has implications far beyond our planet. The Observer, 19 January 2025.

A fully revised edition of Steve Drury’s book Stepping Stones: The Making of Our Home World can now be downloaded as a free eBook

Was Venus once habitable?

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The surface of Venus from the USSR Venera 14 lander

It is often said that Earth has a twin: Venus, the second planet from the Sun. That isn’t true, despite the fact that both have similar size and density. Venus, in fact, is even more inhospitable that either Mars or the Moon, having surface temperatures (~465°C) that are high enough to melt lead or, more graphically, those in a pizza oven. The only vehicles successfully to have landed on Venus (the Russian Venera series) survived for a mere 2 hours, but some did did send back data and images. That near incandescence is masked by the Venusian atmosphere that comprises 96.5% carbon dioxide, 3.5% nitrogen and 0.05 % sulfur dioxide, with mere traces of other gases including extremely low amounts of water vapour (0.002%) and virtually no oxygen. The dense atmosphere imposes a pressure at Venus’s surface tht is 92 times that on Earth: so dense that CO2 and N2 are, strictly speaking, not gases but supercritical fluids at the surface. At present Venus is definitely inimical to any known type of life. It is the victim of an extreme, runaway greenhouse effect.

As it stands, Venus’s geology is also very different from that of the Earth. Because its upper atmosphere contains clouds of highly reflective sulfuric acid aerosols only radar is capable of penetrating to the surface and returning to have been monitored by a couple of orbital vehicles: Magellan (NASA 1990 to 1994) and Venus Express (European Space Agency 2006 to 2014). The latter also carried means of mapping Venus’s surface gravitational field. The radar imagery shows that 80% of the Venusian surface comprises somewhat wrinkled plains that suggests a purely volcanic origin. Indeed more that 85,000 volcanoes have been mapped, 167 of which are over 100 km across. Much of the surface appears to have been broken into polygonal blocks or ‘campuses’ (campus is Latin for field) that give the impression of ‘crazy paving’. A peculiar kind of local-scale tectonics has operated there, but nothing like the plate tectonics on Earth in either shape or scale.

Polygonal blocks or ‘campuses’ on the lowland surface of Venus. Note the zones of ridges that roughly parallel ‘campus’ margins. Credit: Paul K. Byrne, North Carolina State University and Sean C. Solomon, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

Many of the rocky bodies of the solar system are pocked by impact craters – the Earth has few, simply because erosion and sedimentary burial on the continents, and subduction of ocean floors have removed them from view. The Venusian surface has so few that it can, in its entirety, be surmised to have formed by magmatic ‘repaving’ since about 500 Ma ago at least. Earlier geological process can only be guessed at, or modelled in some way. A recent paper postulates that ‘there are several lines of evidence that suggest that Venus once did have a mobile lithosphere perhaps not dissimilar to Earth …’ (Weller, M.B. & Kiefer, W.S. 2025. The punctuated evolution of the Venusian atmosphere from a transition in mantle convective style and volcanic outgassing. Science Advances, v. 11, article eadn986; DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adn986). One large, but subtle feature may have formed by convergence similar to that of collision tectonics. There are also gravitational features that hint at active subduction at depth, although the surface no longer shows connected features such as trenches and island arcs. Local extension has been inferred from other data.

Weller and Kiefer suspect that Venus in the past may have shifted between a form of mobile plate tectonics and stagnant ‘lid’ tectonics, the vast volcanic plains having formed by processes akin to flood volcanism on a planetary scale. Venus’s similar density to that of Earth suggests that it is made of similar rocky material surrounding a metallic core. However, that planet has a far weaker magnetic field suggesting that the core is unable to convect and behave like a dynamo to generate a magnetic field. That may explain why the atmosphere of Venus is almost completely dry. With no magnetic field to deflect it the solar wind of charged particles directly impacts the upper atmosphere, in contrast to the Earth where only a very small proportion descends at the poles. Together with the action of UV solar radiation that splits water vapour into its constituent hydrogen and oxygen ions, the solar wind adds energy to them so that they escape to space. This atmospheric ‘erosion’ has steadily stripped the atmosphere of Venus – and thus its solid surface – of all but a minute trace of water, leaving behind higher mass molecules, particularly carbon dioxide, emitted by its volcanism. Of course, this process has vastly amplified the greenhouse effect that makes Venus so hot. Early on the planet may have had oceans and even primitive life, which on Earth extract CO2 by precipitating carbonates and by photosynthesis, respectively. But they no longer exist.

The high surface temperature on Venus has made its internal geothermal gradient very different from Earth’s; i.e. increasing from 465°C with depth, instead of from about 15°C on Earth. As a result, everywhere beneath the surface of Venus its mantle has been more able to melt and generate magma. Earlier in its history it may have behaved more like Earth, but eventually flipped to continual magmatic ‘repaving’. To investigate how this evolution may have occurred Weller and Kiefer created 3-D spherical models of geological activity, beginning with Earth-like tectonics – a reasonable starting point because of the probable Earth-like geochemistry of Venus. My simplified impression of what they found is that the periodic blurting of magma well-known from Earth history to have created flood-basalt events without disturbing plate tectonics proceeded on Venus with progressively greater violence. Such events here emitted massive amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere over short (~1 Ma) time scales and resulted in climate change, but Earth’s surface processes have always returned to ‘normal’. Flood-basalt episodes here have had a rough periodicity of around 35 Ma. Weller and Kiefer’s modelling seems to suggest that such events on Venus may have been larger. Repetition of such events, which emitted CO­2 that surface processes could not erase before the next event, would progressively ramp up surface temperatures and the geothermal gradient.  Eventually climatic heating would drive water from the surface into the atmosphere, to be lost forever through interaction with the solar wind. Without rainfall made acid by dissolved CO2, rock weathering that tempers the greenhouse effect on Earth would cease on Venus. The increased geothermal gradient would change any earlier rigid, Earth-like lithosphere to more ductile material, thereby shutting down the formation of plates, the essence of tectonics on Earth. It may have been something along those lines that made Venus inimical to life, and some may fear that anthropogenic global warming here might similarly doom the Earth to become an incandescent and sterile crucible orbiting the Sun. But as Mark Twain observed in 1897 after reading The New York Herald’s account that he was ill and possibly dying in London, ‘The report of my death was an exaggeration’. It would suit my narrative better had he said ‘… was premature’!

The Earth has a very large Moon because of a stupendous collision with a Mars-sized planet shortly after it accreted. That fundamentally reset Earth’s bulk geochemistry: a sort of Year Zero event. It endowed both bodies with magma oceans from which several tectonic scenarios developed on Earth from Eon to Eon. There is no evidence that Venus had such a catastrophic beginning. By at least 3.7 billion years ago Earth had a strong magnetic field. Protected by that thereafter from the solar wind, it has never lost its huge endowment of water; solid, liquid or gaseous. It seems that it did go through a stagnant lid style of tectonics early on, that transitioned to plate tectonics around the end of the Hadean Eon (~4.0 Ga), with a few hiccups during the Archaean Eon. And it did develop life as an integral part of the rock cycle. Venus, fascinating as it is, shows no sign of either, and that’s hardly surprising. Those factors and its being much closer to the Sun may have condemned it from the outset.

A fully revised edition of Steve Drury’s book Stepping Stones: The Making of Our Home World can now be downloaded as a free eBook

Global natural hydrogen resources: a CO2 free future??

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The idea of a ‘Hydrogen Economy’ has been around for at least six decades, its main attraction being that when hydrogen is burned it combines with oxygen to form H2O. It might seem to be the ultimate ‘green’ energy source, but it is currently being touted by governments and petroleum companies in what is widely regarded as ‘green washing’. The technology favoured by that axis uses steam reforming of the methane that dominates natural petroleum gas, through the reaction:

CH4 + H2O  → CO + 3H2

It’s actually not much different from producing coke gas from coal, which began in the 19th century and is now largely abadoned. Because carbon monoxide (CO) reacts with atmospheric oxygen to form CO2 this process is by no means ‘green’ and is properly referred to as ‘grey’ hydrogen. Only if the CO is stored permanently underground could steam reforming not add to greenhouse warming. That puts the approach in the same category as ‘carbon capture and storage’, with all the possible difficulties inherent in that technology, which has yet to be demonstrated on a large scale. Such hydrogen is classified as a ‘blue’. Colour coding hydrogen is described nicely by the British National Grid. They give another six varieties. Green and yellow hydrogen are produced by electrolysing water using wind or solar power respectively. The pink variety uses nuclear power in the same fashion. Black or brown hydrogen is that produced by coking coal or stewing-up brown coal (lignite) which amazingly are contemplated in Australia and Germany. There is even a turquoise variety can be produced if methane is somehow turned into hydrogen and solid carbon using renewables. There is another category (white) which is hydrogen produced by a variety of natural, geochemical processes.

Distribution of ophiolites around the Eastern Mediterranean and Black Seas. Many orogenic belts are endowed to a similar extent. (Credit: Gültekin Topuz, Istanbul Technical University)

Earth-logs discussed white hydrogen in March 2023 when news emerged of gas that was 98% hydrogen leaking from a water borehole in Mali. The local people harnessed this surprising resource to generate electricity for their village. It also emerges in springs from ultramafic rocks, having formed through weathering of the mineral olivine:

3Fe2SiO4 + 2H2O → 2 Fe3O4 + 3SiO­2 +3H2

Much the same reaction occurs beneath the ocean floor where hydrothermal fluids alter basalts and in geothermal springs that emerge from onshore basalt lavas. Such ‘white’ hydrogen emissions are widespread. So an unknown, but possibly huge amount of hydrogen is leaking into the atmosphere continuously. Because of its tiny nucleus – just a single proton – atmospheric hydrogen quickly escapes to outer space: what a waste! Equally as interesting is that inducing the breakdown of ultramafic rock to yield hydrogen, by pumping water and carbon dioxide into them, may also be a means of leak-free carbon sequestration. This produces the complex mineral serpentine and magnesium carbonate. The reaction gives off heat and so is self sustaining until pumping is stopped.

It has been estimated that by 2050 the annual global demand for hydrogen will reach 530 million t.  Just how big is the potential resource to meet such a demand? Natural weathering and hydrothermal processes have always functioned. Some of the hydrogen produced by them may have built-up in reservoirs like the one in Mali, some is escaping. Neither the magnitude of annual natural generation of hydrogen nor the amount trapped in porous sedimentary rocks are known in any detail. A recent survey of how much may be trapped gives a range from 103 to 1010 million metric tons (Ellis, G.S. & Gelman, S.E. 2024. Model predictions of global geologic hydrogen resources. Science Advances, v. 10, article eado0955; DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.ado0955), most probably 5.6 trillion t. If only a tenth of that is recoverable, replacing fossil-fuel energy with that from white hydrogen to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions would be sustainable for about 400 years. That magnitude of trapped hydrogen reserves well exceeds all proven reserves of natural gas.

This estimate assumes using only hydrogen that has been naturally produced and stored beneath the Earth’s surface. Basalts and ultramafic rocks exposed at the land surface as ophiolites – ancient oceanic crust thrust onto continental crust – are abundant on every continent. Inducing hydrogen-producing chemical reactions in them by pumping water and CO2 into them is little different from the technology being used in fracking. This potential resource is effectively limitless. Combined with renewable energy technology, a hydrogen economy has no conceivable need for fossil fuels, except as organic-chemistry feedstock. Such a scenario for stabilising climate is almost certainly feasible. It could use the capital, technology and skills currently deployed by the petroleum industry that is currently driving society and the Earth in the opposite direction. It is capable of drilling 10 km below the continental surface or the ocean floor, and even into the Earth’s mantle that is made of . . . ultramafic rock.

Best wishes for the festive season to all Earth-logs followers and visitors

The earliest known human-Neanderthal relations

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The first anatomically modern humans (AMH) known to have left their remains outside of Africa lived about 200 ka ago in Greece and the Middle East. They were followed by several short-lived migrations that got as far as Europe, leaving very few fossils or artefacts. Over that time Neanderthals were continually present. Migration probably depended on windows of opportunity controlled by pressures from climatic changes in Africa and sea level being low enough to leave their heartland: perhaps as many as 8 or 9 before 70 ka, when continuous migration out of Africa began. The first long-enduring AMH presence in Europe began around 47 ka ago.

For about 7 thousand years thereafter – about 350 generations – AMH and Neanderthals co-occupied Europe. Evidence is growing that the two groups shared technology. After 40 ka there are no tangible signs of Neanderthals other than segments of their DNA that constitute a proportion of the genomes of modern non-African people. They and AMH must have interbred at some time in the last 200 ka until Neanderthals disappeared. In the same week in late 2024 two papers that shed much light on that issue were published in the leading scientific journals, Nature and Science, picked up by the world’s news media. Both stem from research led by researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Leipzig, Germany. They focus on new DNA results from the genomes of ancient and living Homo sapiens. One centred on 59 AMH fossils dated between 45 and 2.2 ka and 275 living humans (Iasi, L. M. N. and 6 others 2024. Neanderthal ancestry through time: Insights from genomes of ancient and present-day humans Science, v. 386, p. 1239-1246: DOI: 10.1126/science.adq3010. PDF available by request to leonardo_iasi@eva.mpg.de). The other concerns genomes recovered from seven AMH individuals from the oldest sites in Germany and Czechia. (Sümer, A. P. and 44 others 2024. Earliest modern human genomes constrain timing of Neanderthal admixture. Nature, online article; DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-08420-x. PDF available by request to arev_suemer@eva.mpg.de ).

Leonardo Iasi and colleagues from the US and UK examined Neanderthal DNA segments found in more than 300 AMH  genomes, both ancient and in living people, by many other researchers. Their critical focus was on lengths of such segments. Repeated genetic recombination in the descendants of those individuals who had both AMH and Neanderthal parents results in shortening of the lengths of their inherited Neanderthal DNA segments. That provides insights into the timing and duration of interbreeding. The approach used by Iasi ­et al­. used sophisticated statistics to enrich their analysis of Neanderthal-human gene flow. They were able to show that the vast majority of Neanderthal inheritance stems from a single period of such gene flow into the common ancestors of all living people who originated outside Africa. This genetic interchange seems to have lasted for about 7 thousand years after 50 ka. This tallies quite closely with the period when fossil and cultural evidence supports AMH and Neanderthals having co-occupied Europe.

Reconstruction of the woman whose skull was found at Zlatý kůň, Czechia. Credit: Tom Björklund / Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology.

The other study, led by Arev Sümer,  has an author list of 44 researchers from Germany, the US,  Spain, Australia, Israel, the UK, France, Sweden, Denmark and Czechia. The authors took on a difficult task: extracting full genomes from seven of the oldest AMH fossils found in Europe, six from a cave Ranis in Germany and one from about 230 km away at Zlatý kůň in Czechia. Human bones, dated between 42.2 and 49.5 ka, from the Ranis site had earlier provided mitochondrial DNA that proved them to be AMH. A complete female skull excavated from Czechia site, dated at 45 ka had previously yielded a high quality AMH genome. Interestingly that carried variants associated with dark skin and hair, which perhaps reflect African origins. Neanderthals probably had pale skins and may have passed on to the incomers genes associated with more efficient production of vitamin D in the lower light levels of high latitudes and maybe immunity to some diseases. Both sites contain a distinct range of artefacts known as the Lincombian-Ranisian-Jerzmanowician technocomplex. This culture was once regarded as having been made by Neanderthals, but is now linked by the mtDNA results to early AMH. Such artefacts occur across central and north-western Europe. The bones from both sites are clearly important in addressing the issue of Neanderthal-AMH cultural and familial relationships.

The new, distinct genetic data from the Ranis and Zlatý kůň individuals reveals a mother and her child at Ranis. The female found at Zlatý kůň had a fifth- to sixth-degree genetic relationship with Ranis individuals: she may have been their half first cousin once removed. This suggests a wider range of communications than most people in medieval Europe would have had. The data from both sites suggests that the small Ranis-Zlatý kůň population – estimated at around 200 individuals – diverged late from the main body of AMH who began to populate Asia and Australasia at least 65 ka ago. Their complement of Neanderthal genetic segments seems to have originated during their seven thousand-year presence in Europe. Though they survived through 350 generations it seems that their genetic line was not passed on within and outside of Europe. They died out, perhaps during a sudden cold episode during the climatic decline towards the Last Glacial Maximum. We know that because their particular share of the Neanderthal genome does not crop up in the wider data set used by Iasi et al., neither in Europe and West Asia nor in East Asia. That they survived for so long may well have been due to their genetic inheritance from Neanderthals that made them more resilient to what, for them, was initially an alien environment. It is not over-imaginative to suggest that both populations may have collaborated over this period. But neither survived beyond about 40 ka..

Widely publicised as they have been, the two papers leave much more unanswered than they reveal. Both the AMH-Neanderthal relationship and the general migration out of Africa are shown to be more complex than previously thought by palaeoanthropologists. For a start, the descendants today of migrants who headed east carry more Neanderthal DNA that do living Europeans, and it is different. Where did they interbreed? Possibly in western Asia, but that may never be resolved because warmer conditions tend to degrade genetic material beyond the levels that can be recovered from ancient bones. Also, some living people in the east carry both Neanderthal and Denisovan DNA segments. Research Centres like the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology will clearly offer secure employment for some time yet!

How changes in the Earth System have affected human evolution, migration and culture

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Refugees from the Middle East migrating through Slovenia in 2015. Credit: Britannica

During the Pliocene (5.3 to 2.7 Ma) there evolved a network of various hominins, with their remains scattered across both the northern and southern parts of that continent. The earliest, though somewhat disputed hominin fossil Sahelanthropus tchadensis hails from northern Chad and lived  around 7 Ma ago, during the late Miocene, as did a similarly disputed creature from Kenya Orrorin tugenensis (~5.8 Ma). The two were geographically separated by 1500 km, what is now the Sahara desert and the East African Rift System.  The suggestion from mtDNA evidence that humans and chimpanzees had a common ancestor, the uncertainty about when it lived (between 13 to 5 Ma) and what it may have looked like, let alone where it lived, makes the notion debateable. There is even a possibility that the common ancestor of humans and the other anthropoid apes may have been European. Its descendants could well have crossed to North Africa when the Mediterranean Sea had been evaporated away to form the thick salt deposits that now lie beneath it: what could be termed the ‘Into Africa’ hypothesis. The better known Pliocene hominins were also widely distributed in the east and south of the African continent. Wandering around was clearly a hominin predilection from their outset. The same can be said about humans in the general sense (genus Homo) during the Early Pleistocene when some of them left Africa for Eurasia. Artifacts dated at 2.1 Ma have been found on the Loess Plateau of western China, and Georgia hosts the earliest human remains known from Eurasia. Since them H. antecessor, heidelbergensis, Neanderthals and Denisovans roamed Eurasia. Then, after about 130 ka, anatomically modern humans progressively populated all continents, except Antarctica, to their geographic extremities and from sea level to 4 km above it.

There is a popular view that curiosity and exploration are endemic and perhaps unique to the human line: ‘It’s in our genes’. But even plants migrate, as do all animal species. So it is best to be wary of a kind of hominin exceptionalism or superior motive force. Before settled agriculture, simply diffusion of populations in search of sustenance could have achieved the enormous migrations undertaken by all hominins: biological resources move and hunter gatherers follow them. The first migration of Homo erectus from Africa to northern China by way of Georgia seems to taken 200 ka at most and covered about ten thousand kilometres: on average a speed of only 50 m per year! That achievement and many others before and later were interwoven with the evolution of brain size, cognitive ability, means of communication and culture. But what were the ultimate drivers? Two recent papers in the journal Nature Communications make empirically-based cases for natural forces driving the movement of people and changes in demography.

The first considers hominin dispersal in the Palaearctic biogeographic realm: the largest of eight originally proposed by Alfred Russel Wallace in the late 19th century that encompasses the whole of Eurasia and North Africa (Zan, J. et al. 2024. Mid-Pleistocene aridity and landscape shifts promoted Palearctic hominin dispersals. Nature Communications, v. 15, article 10279; DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-54767-0). The Palearctic comprises a wide range of ecosystems: arid to wet, tropical to arctic. After 2 Ma ago, hominins moved to all its parts several times. The approach followed by Zan et al. is to assess the 3.6 Ma record of the thick deposits of dust carried by the perpetual westerly winds that cross Central Asia. This gave rise to the huge (635,000 km2) Loess Plateau. At least 17 separate soil layers in the loess have yielded artefacts during the last 2.1 Ma. The authors radiocarbon dated the successive layers of loess in Tajikistan (286 samples) and the Tarim Basin (244 samples) as precisely as possible, achieving time resolutions of 5 to 10 ka and 10 to 20 ka respectively. To judge variations in climate in these area they also measured the carbon isotopic proportions in organic materials preserved within the layers. Another climate-linked metric that Zan et al. is a time series showing the development of river terraces across Eurasia derived from the earlier work of many geomorphologists. The results from those studies are linked to variations through time in the numbers of archaeological sites across Eurasia that have yielded hominin fossils, stone tools and signs of tool manufacture, many of which have been dated accurately.

The authors use sophisticated statistics to find correlations between times of climatic change and the signs of hominin occupation. Episodes of desertification in Palaearctic Eurasia clearly hindered hominins’ spreading across the continent either from west to east of vice versa. But there were distinct, periodic windows of climatic opportunity for that to happen that coincide with interglacial episodes, whose frequency changed at the Mid Pleistocene Transition (MPT) from about 41 ka to roughly every 100 ka. That was suggested in 2021 to have arisen from an increased roughness of the rock surface over which the great ice sheets of the Northern Hemisphere moved. This suppressed the pace of ice movement so that the 41 ka changes in the tilt of the Earth’s rotational axis could no longer drive climate change during the later Pleistocene, despite the fact that the same astronomical influence continued. The succeeding ~100 ka pulsation may or may not have been paced by the very much weaker influence of Earth changing orbital eccentricity. Whichever, after the MPT climate changes became much more extreme, making human dispersal in the Palearctic realm more problematic. Rather than hominin’s evolution driving them to a ‘Manifest Destiny’ of dominating the world vastly larger and wider inorganic forces corralled and released them so that, eventually, they did.

Much the same conclusion, it seems to me, emerges from a second study that covers the period since ~ 9 ka ago when anatomically modern humans transitioned from a globally dominant hunter-gatherer culture to one of ‘managing’ and dominating ecosystems, physical resources and ultimately the planet itself. (Wirtz, K.W et al. 2024. Multicentennial cycles in continental demography synchronous with solar activity and climate stability. Nature Communications, v. 15, article 10248; DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-54474-w). Like Zan et al., Kai Wirtz and colleagues from Germany, Ukraine and Ireland base their findings on a vast accumulated number (~180,000) of radiocarbon dates from Holocene archaeological sites from all inhabited continents. The greatest number (>90,000) are from Europe. The authors applied statistical methods to judge human population variations since 11.7 ka in each continental area. Known sites are probably significantly outweighed by signs of human presence that remain hidden, and the diligence of surveys varies from country to country and continent to continent: Britain, the Netherlands and Southern Scandinavia are by far the best surveyed. Given those caveats, clearly this approach gives only a blurred estimate of population dynamics during the Holocene. Nonetheless the data are very interesting.

The changes in population growth rates show distinct cyclicity during the Holocene, which Wirtz et al. suggest are signs of booms and busts in population on all six continents. Matching these records against a large number of climatic time series reveals a correlation. Their chosen metric is variation in solar irradiance: the power per unit area received from the Sun. That has been directly monitored only over a couple of centuries. But ice cores and tree rings contain proxies for solar irradiance in the proportions of the radioactive isotopes 10Be and 14C contained in them respectively. Both are produced by the solar wind of high-energy charged particles (electrons, protons and helium nuclei or alpha particles) penetrating the upper atmosphere. The two isotopes have half-lives long enough for them to remain undecayed and thus detectable for tens of thousand years. Both ice cores and tree rings have decadal to annual time resolutions. Wirtz et al. find that their crude estimates of booms and busts in human populations during the Holocene seem closely to match variations in solar activity measured in this way. Climate stability favours successful subsistence and thus growth in populations. Variable climatic conditions seem to induce subsistence failures and increase mortality, probably through malnutrition.

A nice dialectic clearly emerges from these studies. ‘Boom and bust’ as regards populations in millennial and centennial to decadal terms stem from climate variations. Such cyclical change thus repeatedly hones natural selection among the survivors, both genetically and culturally, increasing their general fitness to their surroundings. Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels would have devoured these data avidly had they emerged in the 19th century. I’m sure they would have suggested from the evidence that something could go badly wrong – negation of negation, if readers care to explore that dialectical law further . . . And indeed that is happening. Humans made ecologically very fit indeed in surviving natural pressures are now stoking up a major climatic hiccup, or rather the culture and institutions that humans have evolved are doing that.

Hominin footprints in Kenya confirm two species occupied the same ecosystem the same time

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For the last forty thousand years anatomically modern humans have been the only primates living on Planet Earth with a sophisticated culture; i.e. using tools, fire, language, art etcetera. Since Homo sapiens emerged some 300 ka ago, they joined at least two other groups of humans – Neanderthals and Denisovans – and not only shared Eurasia with them, but interbred as well. In fact no hominin group has been truly alone since Pliocene times, which began 5.3 Ma ago. Sometimes up to half a dozen species occupied the habitable areas of Africa. Yet we can never be sure whether or not they bumped into one another. Dates for fossils are generally imprecise; give or take a few thousand years. The evidence is merely that sedimentary strata of roughly the same age in various places have yielded fossils of several hominins, but that co-occupation has never been proved in a single stratum in the same place: until now.

Footprints from Koobi Fora: left – right foot of H. erectus; right – left foot of Paranthropus boisei. Credit: Kevin Hatala. Chatham University

The Koobi Fora area near modern Lake Turkana has been an important, go-to site, courtesy of the Leakey palaeoanthropology dynasty (Louis and Mary, their son and daughter-in-law Richard and Meave, and granddaughter Louise). They discovered five hominin species there dating from 4.2 to 1.4 Ma. So there was a chance that this rich area might prove that two of the species were close neighbours in both space and time. In 2021 Kenyan members of the Turkana Basin Institute based in Nairobi spotted a trackway of human footprints on a bedding surface of sediments that had been deposited about 1.5 Ma ago. Reminiscent of the famous, 2 million years older Laetoli trackway of Australopithecus afarensis in Tanzania, that at Koobi Fora is scientifically just as exciting  for it shows footprints of two hominin species Homo erectus and Paranthropus boisei who had walked through wet mud a few centimetres below the surface of Lake Turkana’s ancient predecessor (Hatala, K.G. and 13 others, 2024. Footprint evidence for locomotive diversity and shared habitats among early Pleistocene hominins. Science, v. 386, p. 1004-1010; DOI: 10.1126/science.ado5275). The trackway is littered with the footprints of large birds and contains evidence of zebra.

One set of prints attributed to H. erectus suggest the heels struck the surface first, then the feet rolled forwards before pushing off with the soles: little different from our own, unshod footprints in mud. They are attributed to H. erectus. The others also show a bipedal gait, but different locomotion. The feet that made them were significantly flatter than ours and had a big toe angled away from the smaller toes. They are so different that no close human relative could have made them. The local fossil record includes paranthropoids (Paranthropus boisei), whose fossil foot bones suggest an individual of that speciesmade those prints. It also turns out that a similar, dual walkers’ pattern was found 40 km away in lake sediments of roughly the same age. The two species cohabited the same terrain for a substantial period of time. As regards the Koobi Fora trackway, it seems the two hominins plodded through the mud only a few hours apart at most: they were neighbours.

Artists’ reconstructions of: left – H. erectus; right – Paranthropus boisei. Credits: Yale University, Roman Yevseyev respectively

From their respective anatomies they were very different. Homo erectus was, apart from having massive brow ridges, similar to us. Paranthropus boisei had huge jaws and facial muscles attached to a bony skull crest. So how did they get along? The first was probably omnivorous and actively hunted or scavenged meaty prey: a bifacial axe-wielding hunter-gatherer. Paranthropoids seem to have sought and eaten only vegetable victuals, and some sites preserve bone digging sticks. They were not in competition for foodstuffs and there was no reason for mutual intolerance. Yet they were physically so different that intimate social relations were pretty unlikely. Also their brain sizes were very different, that of P. Boisei’s being far smaller than that of H. erectus , which may not have encouraged intellectual discourse. Both persist in the fossil record for a million years or more. Modern humans, Neanderthals and Denisovans, as we know, sometimes got along swimmingly, possibly because they were cognitively very similar and not so different physically.

Since many hominin fossils are associated with riverine and lake-side environments, it is surprising that more trackways than those of Laetoli and Koobi Fora have been found. Perhaps that is because palaeoanthropologists are generally bent on finding bones and tools! Yet trackways show in a very graphic way how animals behave and interrelate with their environment, for example dinosaurs. Now anthropologists have learned how to spot footprint trace fossils that will change, and enrich the human story.

See also: Ashworth, J. Fossil footprints of different ancient humans found together for the first time. Natural History Museum News 28 November 2024; Marshall, M. Ancient footprints show how early human species lived side by side. New Scientist, 28 November 2024

Divining the possible climatic impacts of slowing North Atlantic current patterns

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Meltwater channels and lake on the surface of the Greenland ice sheet

In August 2024 Earth-Logs reported on the fragile nature of thermohaline circulation of ocean water. The post focussed on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), whose fickle nature seems to have resulted in a succession of climatic blips during the last glacial-interglacial cycle since 100 ka ago. They took the form of warming-cooling cycles known as Dansgaard-Oeschger events, when the poleward movement of warm surface water in the North Atlantic Ocean was disrupted. An operating AMOC normally drags northwards warm water from lower latitudes, which is more saline as a result of evaporation from the ocean surface there. Though it gradually cools in its journey it remains warmer and less dense than the surrounding surface water through which it passes: it effectively ‘floats’. But as the north-bound, more saline stream steadily loses energy its density increases. Eventually the density equals and then exceeds that of high-latitude surface water, at around 60° to 70°N, and sinks. Under these conditions the AMOC is self-sustaining and serves to warm the surrounding land masses by influencing climate. This is especially the case for the branch of the AMOC known as the Gulf Stream that today swings eastwards to ameliorate the climate of NW Europe and Scandinavia as far as Norway’s North Cape and into the eastern Arctic Ocean.

The suspected driving forces for the Dansgaard-Oeschger events are sudden massive increases in the supply of freshwater into the Atlantic at high northern latitudes, which dilute surface waters and lower their density. So it becomes more difficult for surface water to become denser on being cooled so that it can sink to the ocean floor. The AMOC may weaken and shut down as a result and so too its warming effect at high latitudes. It also has a major effect on atmospheric circulation and moisture content: a truly complicated climatic phenomenon. Indeed, like the Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), major changes in AMOC may have global climatic implications.  QIyun Ma of the Alfred Wegner Institute in Bremerhaven, Germany and colleagues from Germany, China and Romania have modelled how the various possible locations of fresh water input may affect AMOC (Ma, Q. et al. 2024. Revisiting climate impacts of an AMOC slowdown: dependence on freshwater locations in the North Atlantic. Science Advances, v. 10, article eadr3243; DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adr3243). They refer to such sudden inputs as ‘hosing’!

Location of the 4 regions in the northern North Atlantic used by Ma et al. in their modelling of AMOC: A Labrador Sea; B Irminger Basin; C NE Atlantic; D Nordic Seas. Colour chart refers to current temperature. Solid line – surface currents, dashed line – deep currents

First, the likely consequences under current climatic conditions of such ‘hosings’ and AMOC collapses are: a rapid expansion of the Arctic Ocean sea ice; delayed onset of summer ice-free conditions; southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) –  a roughly equatorial band of low pressure where the NE and SE trade winds converge, and the rough location of the sometimes windless Doldrums. There have been several attempts to model the general climatic effects of an AMOC slowdown. Ma et al. take matters a step further by using the Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model (AWI-CM3) to address what may happen following ‘hosing’ in four regions of the North Atlantic: the Labrador Sea (between Labrador and West Greenland); the Irminger Basin (SE of East Greenland, SW of Iceland); the Nordic Seas (north of Iceland; and the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian seas) and the NE Atlantic (between Iceland, Britain and western Norway).

Prolonged freshwater flow into the Irminger Basin has the most pronounced effect on AMOC weakening, largely due to a U-bend in the AMOC where the surface current changes from northward to south-westward flow parallel to the East Greenland Current. The latter carries meltwater from the Greenland ice sheet whose low density keeps it near the surface. In turn, this strengthens NE and SW winds over the Labrador Sea and Nordic Seas respectively, which slow this part of the AMOC. In turn that complex system slows the entire AMOC further south. Since 2010 an average 270 billion tonnes of ice has melted in Greenland each year. This results in an annual 0.74 mm rise in global sea level, so the melted glacial ice is not being replenished. When sea ice forms it does not take up salt and is just as fresh as glacial ice. Annual melting of sea ice therefore temporarily adds fresh water to surface waters of the Arctic Ocean, but the extent of winter sea ice is rapidly shrinking. So, it too adds to freshening and lowering the density of the ocean-surface layer. The whole polar ocean ‘drains’ southwards by surface currents, mainly along the east coast of Greenland potentially to mix with branches of the AMOC. At present they sink with cooled more saline water to move at depth. To melting can be added calving of Greenlandic glaciers to form icebergs that surface currents transport southwards. A single glacier (Zachariae Isstrom) in NE Greenland lost 160 billion tonnes of ice between 1999 and 2022. Satellite monitoring of the Greenland glaciers suggests that a trillion tonnes have been lost through iceberg formation during the first quarter of the 21st century. Accompanying the Dansgaard-Oeschger events of the last 100 ka were iceberg ‘armadas’ (Heinrich events) that deposited gravel in ocean-floor sediments as far south as Portugal.

 The modelling done by Ma et al. also addresses possible wider implications of their ‘hosing’ experiments to the global climate. The authors caution that this aspect is an ‘exploration’ rather than prediction. Globally increased duration of ‘cold extremes’ and dry spells, and the intensity of precipitation may ensue from downturns and potential collapse of AMOC. Europe seems to be most at risk. Ma et al. plea for expanded observational and modelling studies focused on the Irminger Basin because it may play a critical role in understanding the mechanisms and future strength of the AMOC.

 See also: Yirka, R. 2024. Greenland’s meltwater will slow Atlantic circulation, climate model suggests. Phys Org, 21 November 2024

A major breakthrough in carbon capture and storage?

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Carbon capture and storage is in the news most weeks and is increasingly on the agenda for some governments. But plans to implement the CCS approach to reducing and stopping global warming increasingly draws scorn from scientists and environmental campaigners. There is a simple reason for their suspicion. State engagement, in the UK and other rich countries, involves major petroleum companies that developed the oil and gas fields responsible for unsustainably massive injection of CO2 into the atmosphere. Because they have ‘trousered’ stupendous profits they are a tempting source for the financial costs of pumping CO2 into porous sedimentary rocks that once contained hydrocarbon reserves. Not only that, they have conducted such sequestration over decades to drive out whatever petroleum fluids remaining in previously tapped sedimentary strata. For that second reason, many oil companies are eager and willing to comply with governmental plans, thereby seeming to be environmentally ‘friendly’. It also tallies with their ambitions to continue making profits from fossil-fuel extraction. But isn’t that simply a means of replacing the sequestered greenhouse gas with more of it generated by burning the recovered oil and natural gas; i.e. ‘kicking the can down the road’? Being a gas – technically a ‘free phase’ – buried CO2 also risks leaking back to the atmosphere through fractures in the reservoir rock. Indeed, some potential sites for its sequestration have been deliberately made more gas-permeable by ‘fracking’ as a means of increasing the yield of petroleum-rich rock. Finally, a litre of injected gas can drive out pretty much the same volume of oil. So this approach to CCS may yield a greater potential for greenhouse warming than would the sequestered carbon dioxide itself.

Image of calcite (white) and chlorite (cyan) formed in porous basalt due to CO2-charged water-rock interaction at the CarbFix site in Iceland. (Credit: Sandra Ósk Snæbjörnsdóttir)

Another, less widely publicised approach is to geochemically bind CO2 into solid carbonates, such as calcite (CaCO­3), dolomite (CaMgCO3), or magnesite (MgCO3). Once formed such crystalline solids are unlikely to break down to their component parts at the surface, under water or buried. One way of doing this is by the chemical weathering of rocks that contain calcium- and magnesium-rich minerals, such as feldspar (CaAl2Si2O8), olivine ([Fe,Mg]2SiO4) and pyroxene ([Fe,Mg]CaSi2O6) . Mafic and ultramafic rocks, such as basalt and peridotite are commonly composed of such minerals. One approach involves pumping the gas into a Icelandic borehole that passes through basalt and letting natural reactions do the trick. They give off heat and proceed quickly, very like those involved in the setting of concrete. In two experimental field trials 95% of injected CO2 was absorbed within 18 months. Believe it or not, ants can do the trick with crushed basalt and so too can plant roots. There have been recent experiments aimed at finding accelerants for such subsurface weathering (Wang, J. et al. 2024. CO2 capture, geological storage, and mineralization using biobased biodegradable chelating agents and seawater. Science Advances, v. 10, article eadq0515; DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adq0515). In some respects the approach is akin to fracking. The aim is to connect isolated natural pores to allow fluids to permeate rock more easily, and to release metal ions to combine with injected CO2.

Chelating agents are biomolecules that are able to dissolve metal ions; some are used to remove toxic metals, such as lead, mercury and cadmium, from the bodies of people suffering from their effects. Naturally occurring ones extract metal ions from minerals and rocks and are agents of chemical weathering; probably used by the aforesaid ants and root systems. Wang and colleagues, based at Tohoku University in Japan, chose a chelating agent GLDA (tetrasodium glutamate diacetate –  C9H9NNa4O8) derived from plants, which is non-toxic, cheap and biodegradable. They injected CO2 and seawater containing dissolved GDLA into basaltic rock samples. The GDLA increases the rock’s porosity and permeability by breaking down its minerals so that Ca and Mg ions entered solution and were thereby able to combine with the gas to form carbonate minerals. Within five days porosity was increased by 16% and the rocks permeability increased by 26 times. Using electron microscopy the authors were able to show fine particles of carbonate growing in the connected pores. In fact these carbonate aggregates become coated with silica released by the induced mineral-weathering reactions. Calculations based on the previously mentioned field experiment in Iceland suggest that up to 20 billion tonnes of CO2 could be stored in 1.3 km3 of basalt treated in this way: about 1/25000 of the active rift system in Iceland (3.3 x 104 km2 covered by 1 km of basalt lava). In 2023 fossil fuel use emitted an estimated 36.6 bllion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere.

So, why do such means of efficiently reducing the greenhouse effect not receive wide publicity by governments or the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? Answers on a yellow PostIt™ please . . .

The prospect of climate chaos following major volcano eruptions

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It hardly needs saying that volcanoes present a major hazard to people living in close proximity. The inhabitants of the Roman cities of Herculaneum and Pompeii in the shadow of Vesuvius were snuffed out by an incandescent pyroclastic during the 79 CE eruption of the volcano. Since December 2023 long-lasting eruptions from the Sundhnúksgígar crater row on the Reykjanes Penisula of Iceland have driven the inhabitants of nearby Grindavík from their homes, but no injuries or fatalities have been reported. Far worse was the 1815 eruption of Tambora on Sumbawa, Indonesia, when at least 71,000 people perished. But that event had much wider consequences, which lasted into 1817 at least. As well as an ash cloud the huge plume from Tambora injected 28 million tons of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. In the form of sulfuric acid aerosols, this reflected so much solar energy back into space that the Northern Hemisphere cooled by 1° C, making 1816 ‘the year without a summer’. Crop failures in Europe and North America doubled grain prices, leading to widespread social unrest and economic depression. That year also saw unusual weather in India culminate in a cholera outbreak, which spread to unleash the 1817 global pandemic. Tambora is implicated in a global death toll in the tens of millions. Thanks to the record of sulfur in Greenland ice cores it has proved possible to link past volcanic action to historic famines and epidemics, such as the Plague of Justinian in 541 CE. If they emit large amounts of sulfur gases volcanic eruptions can result in sudden global climatic downturns.

The ash plume towering above Pinatubo volcano in the Philippines on 12 June 1991, which rose to 40 km (Credit: Karin Jackson U.S. Air Force)

With this in mind Markus Stoffel, Christophe Corona and Scott St. George of the University of Geneva, Switzerland, CNRS, Grenoble France and global insurance brokers WTW, London, respectively, have published a Comment in Nature warning of this kind of global hazard (Stoffel, M., Corona, C. & St. George, S. 2024.  The next massive volcano eruption will cause climate chaos — we are unprepared. Nature v. 635, p. 286-289; DOI: 10.1038/d41586-024-03680-z). The crux of their argument is that there has been nothing approaching the scale of Tambora for the last two centuries. The 1991 eruption of Pinatubo fed the stratosphere with just over a quarter of Tambora’s complement of SO2, and decreased global temperatures by around 0.6°C during 1991-2. Should one so-called Decade Volcanoes – those located in densely populated areas, such as Vesuvius – erupt within the next five years actuaries at Lloyd’s of London estimate economic impacts of US$ 3 trillion in the first year and US$1.5 trillion over the following years. But that is based on just the local risk of ash falls, lava and pyroclastic flows, mud slides and lateral collapse, not global climatic effects. So, a Tambora-sized or larger event is not countenanced by the world’s most famous insurance underwriter: probably because its economic impact is incalculable. Yet the chances of such a repeat certainly are conceivable. A 60 ka record of sulfate in the Greenland ice cores allows the probability of eruptions on the scale of Tambora to be estimated. The data suggest that there is a one-in-six chance that one will occur somewhere during the 21st century, but not necessarily at a site judged by volcanologists to be precarious . Nobody expected the eruption from the Pacific Ocean floor of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano on January 15, 2022: the largest in the last 30 years.

The authors insist that climate-changing eruptions now need to be viewed in the context of anthropogenic global warming. Superficially, it might seem that a few volcanic winters and years without a summer could be a welcome, albeit short-term, solution. However, Stoffel, Corona and St. George suggest that the interaction of a volcano-induced global cooling with climatic processes would probably be very complex. Global warming heats the lower atmosphere and cools the stratosphere. Such steady changes will affect the height to which explosive volcanic plumes may reach. Atmospheric circulation patterns are changing dramatically as the weather of 2024 seems to show. The same may be said for ocean currents that are changing as sea-surface temperatures increase. Superimposing volcano-induced cooling of the sea surface adds an element of chaos to what is already worrying. What if a volcanic winter coincided with an el Niño event? The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that projects climate changes is ‘flying blind’ as regards volcanic cooling. Another issue is that our knowledge of the effects in 1815 of Tambora concerned a very different world from ours: a global population then that was eight times smaller than now; very different patterns of agriculture and habitation; a world with industrial production on a tiny proportion of the continental surface. Stoffel, Corona and St. George urge the IPCC to shed light on this major blind spot. Climate modellers need to explore the truly worst-case scenarios since a massive volcanic eruption is bound to happen one day. Unlike global warming from greenhouse-gas emission, there is absolutely nothing that can be done to avert another Tambora.

How India accelerated towards Eurasia at the end of the Cretaceous

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About 70 Ma ago the magnetic striping of the Indian Ocean floor suggests that the Indian subcontinent was then moving towards the huge, almost stationary Eurasian continent at about 8 cm per year. Over the next 5 Ma this convergence rate underwent a tectonically startling acceleration to reach 18 cm yr-1 by around the time of the Cretaceous-Palaeogene boundary (65 Ma): more than doubling the approach rate. Thereafter it slowed, eventually to a few centimetres per year once collision and building of the Himalayan mountain belt were more or less complete about 30 Ma ago. This cannot easily be explained by a speeding up of the sea-floor spreading rate at an Indian Ocean ridge to the south, 18 cm yr-1 being as fast as tectonic forces can manage at present. At that time ocean floor to the north of India was being subducted beneath Eurasia, and basaltic volcanism was flooding what is now the Deccan Plateau on western India. A couple of suggestions have been made: two northward subduction zones may have developed or the mantle plume feeding the Deccan flood basalts may have driven the tectonic acceleration. A third possibility is that the subduction was somehow lubricated. That approach has recently been considered by geoscientists from China and Singapore  (Zhou, H. et al. 2024. India–Eurasia convergence speed-up by passive-margin sediment subduction. Nature, v. 635, p. 114-120; DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-08069-6).

Hao Zhou and colleagues studied the isotopic and trace-element geochemistry of volcanic and plutonic igneous complexes to the north of the Himalaya. They were emplaced in arc environments in three stages: from 98 to 89; 65 to 60; and 57 to 50 Ma. In this tectonic setting fluids rise from the subducted slab to induce the mantle part of the overriding lithosphere to partially melt. That yields magmas which penetrate the crust above. The first and last magmatic events produced similar isotopic and trace-element ‘signatures’, which suggest fluids rose from subducted ocean lithosphere.  But those in the latest Cretaceous to earliest Palaeocene are markedly different. Instead of showing signs of their magmas being entirely mantle derived like the earlier and later groups, the 65 to 60 Ma rocks exhibit clear evidence of partial melting having incorporated materials that had originated in older continental crust. The authors suggest that this crustal contamination stemmed from sediments that had been deposited at the northern margin of the Indian subcontinent during the Mesozoic. These sediments had formed by weathering of the ancient rocks that underpin India, transport of the debris by rivers and deposition on the seafloor as water-saturated sands, silts and clays. Once those sediments were subducted beneath what is now Tibet they would yield fluids with a geochemical ‘fingerprint’ inherited from old continental crust. Moreover, far more fluids than subducted oceanic crust could ever release would rise into the overriding lithosphere than.

The fluids rising from a subducted wedge of sediments may have reduced friction between the overriding Eurasian lithosphere and the subducted slab derived from the Indian tectonic plate. That scenario would not only have lubricated subduction, but allowed compressive forces in the overriding lithosphere to relax. Both would have allowed convergence of the two plates to move significantly faster as the sediments were progressively consumed. Once completed, convergence would have slowed without such ‘lubrication’.Earlier continent-continent collision zones, such as those that united Pangaea and older supercontinents may well have involved such tectonic surges. And the same kind of process may eventually speed up the reassembly of the latest distribution of continents.

Watch an animation of the India-Eurasia convergence (just over 3 minutes long)compiled by Christopher Scotese of Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois, USA, which is a component of his Paleomap Project. It starts by following India from its current position to its origin in the break-up of Gondwanaland ~100 Ma ago. The last half reverses the motions to show India’s slow collision with Eurasia.

Multiple Archaean gigantic impacts, perhaps beneficial to some early life

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In March 1989 an asteroid half a kilometre across passed within 500 km of the Earth at a speed of 20 km s-1. Making some assumptions about its density, the kinetic energy of this near miss would have been around 4 x 1019 J: a million times more than Earth’s annual heat production and humanity’s annual energy use; and about half the power of detonating every thermonuclear device ever assembled. Had that small asteroid struck the Earth all this energy would have been delivered in a variety of forms to the Earth System in little more than a second – the time it would take to pass through the atmosphere. The founder of “astrogeology” and NASA’s principal geological advisor for the Apollo programme, the late Eugene Shoemaker, likened the scenario to a ‘small hill falling out of the sky’. (Read a summary of what would happen during such an asteroid strike).  But that would have been dwarfed by the 10 to 15 km impactor that resulted in the ~200 km wide Chicxulub crater and the K-Pg mass extinction 66 Ma ago. Evidence has been assembled for Earth having been struck during the Archaean around 3.6 billion years (Ga) ago by an asteroid 200 to 500 times larger: more like four Mount Everests ‘falling out of the sky’ (Drabon, N. et al. 2024. Effect of a giant meteorite impact on Paleoarchean surface environments and life. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, v. 121, article e2408721121; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2408721121

Impact debris layer in the Palaeoarchaean Barberton greenstone belt of South Africa, which contains altered glass spherules and fragments of older carbonaceous cherts. (Credit: Credit: Drabon, N. et al., Appendix Fig S2B)

In fact the Palaeoarchaean Era (3600 to 3200 Ma) was a time of multiple large impacts. Yet their recognition stems not from tangible craters but strata that contain once glassy spherules, condensed from vaporised rock, interbedded with sediments of Palaeoarchaean ‘greenstone belts’ in Australia and South Africa (see: Evidence builds for major impacts in Early Archaean; August 2002, and Impacts in the early Archaean; April 2014), some of which contain unearthly proportions of different chromium isotopes (see: Chromium isotopes and Archaean impacts; March 2003). Compared with the global few millimetres of spherules at the K-Pg boundary, the Barberton greenstone belt contains eight such beds up to 1.3 m thick in its 3.6 to 3.3 Ga stratigraphy. The thickest of these beds (S2) formed by an impact at around 3.26 Ga by an asteroid estimated to have had a mass 50 to 200 times that of the K-Pg impactor.

Above the S2 bed are carbonaceous cherts that contain carbon-isotope evidence of a boom in single-celled organisms with a metabolism that depended on iron and phosphorus rather than sunlight. The authors suggest that the tsunami triggered by impact would have stirred up soluble iron-2 from the deep ocean and washed in phosphorus from the exposed land surface, perhaps some having been delivered by the asteroid itself. No doubt such a huge impact would have veiled the Palaeoarchaean Earth with dust that reduced sunlight for years: inimical for photosynthesising bacteria but unlikely to pose a threat to chemo-autotrophs. An unusual feature of the S2 spherule bed is that it is capped by a layer of altered crystals whose shapes suggest they were originally sodium bicarbonate and calcium carbonate. They may represent flash-evaporation of up to tens of metres of ocean water as a result of the impact. Carbonates are less soluble than salt and more likely to crystallise during rapid evaporation of the ocean surface than would NaCl.   

Time line of possible events following a huge asteroid impact during the Palaeoarchaean. (Credit: Drabon, N. et al. Fig 8)

So it appears that early extraterrestrial bombardment in the early Archaean had the opposite effect to the Chicxulub impactor that devastated the highly evolved life of the late Mesozoic. Many repeats of such chaos during the Palaeoarchaean could well have given a major boost to some forms of early, chemo-autotrophic life, while destroying or setting back evolutionary attempts at photo-autotrophy.

See also: King, A. 2024. Meteorite 200 times larger than one that killed dinosaurs reset early life. Chemistry World 23 October 2024.

Evidence for Earth’s magnetic field 3.7 billion years ago

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If ever there was one geological locality that  ‘kept giving’ it would have to be the Isua supracrustal belt in West Greenland. Since 1971 it has been known to be the repository of the oldest known metasedimentary rocks, dated at around 3.7 Ga. Repeatedly, geochemists have sought evidence for life of that antiquity, but the Isua metasediments have yielded only ambiguous chemical signs. A more convincing hint emerged from iron-rich silica layers (jasper) in similarly aged metabasalts on Nuvvuagittuk Island in Quebec on the east side of Hudson Bay, Canada, which may be products of Eoarchaean sea-floor hydrothermal vents. X-ray micro-tomography and electron microscopy of the jaspers revealed twisted filaments, tubes, knob-like and branching structures up to a centimetre long that contain minute grains of carbon, phosphates and metal sufides, but the structures are made from hematite (Fe2O3­) so an inorganic formation is just as likely as the earliest biology. Isua’s most intriguing contribution to the search for the earliest life has been what look like stromatolites in a marble layer (see: Signs of life in some of the oldest rocks; September 2016). Such structures formed in later times on shallow sea floors through the secretion of biofilms by photosynthesising blue-green bacteria.

Structure of the Earth’s magnetosphere that deflects charged particles which form the solar wind. (Credit: Wikipedia Commons)

For life to form and survive depends on its complex molecules being protected from high-energy charged particles in the solar wind. In turn that depends on a strong geomagnetic field deflecting the solar wind as it does today, except for a small proportion that descend towards the poles and form aurora during solar mass ejections. In  visits to Isua in 2018 and 2019, geophysicists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA and Oxford University, UK drilled over 300 rock cores from metasedimentary ironstones (Nichols, C.I.O. and 9 others 2024. Possible Eoarchean records of the geomagnetic field preserved in the Isua Supracrustal Belt, southern West Greenland. Journal of Geophysics Research (Solid Earth), v. 129, article e2023JB027706; DOI: 10.1029/2023JB027706 Magnetisation preserved in the samples (remanent magnetism) suggest that it was formed by a geomagnetic field strength of at least 15 microtesla, similar to that which prevails today. The minerals magnetite (Fe3O4) and apatite (a complex phosphate) in the ironstones have been dated using U-Pb geochronometry and record a metamorphic event only slightly younger that the age of the Isua belt (3.69 and 3.63 Ga respectively). There is no sign of any younger heating above the temperatures that would reset the ironstones’ magnetisation. The Isua remanent magnetisation is at least 200 Ma older than that found in igneous rocks from north-eastern South Africa dated at between 3.2 to 3.45 Ga. So even in the Eoarchaean it seems likely that life, had it formed, would have avoided the hazard of exposure to the high energy solar wind. In all likelihood, however, in a shallow marine environment it would have had to protect itself somehow from intense ultraviolet radiation. That is now vastly reduced by stratospheric ozone (O3) which could only form once the atmosphere had appreciable oxygen (O2) content, i.e. after the Great Oxygenation Event beginning about 2.4 Ga ago. Undoubted stromatolites as old as 3.5 Ga suggest that early photosynthesising bacteria clearly had cracked the problem of UV protection somehow.

A companion crater for Chicxulub on the continental shelf of West Africa

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Fig Interpreted 2D seismic section across the Nadir crater and central uplift beneath the Guinea Terrace. (Credit: Nicholson, et al. 2022. Fig 2c)

In 2022 four geoscientists from Heriot-Watt University in Edinburgh, Scotland and the Universities of Arizona and Texas (Austin), USA were geologically interpreting seismic-reflection data beneath the seafloor off Guinea and Guinea-Bissau, West Africa. Individual sedimentary strata that cover the upper continental crust show up as many reflectors. They are calibrated to rock cores from exploratory well that had revealed up to 8 km of sedimentary cover deposited continuously since the Upper Jurassic. The team’s objective was to collect information on tectonic structures that had formed when South America separated from Africa during the Cretaceous. The geophysical data were from commercial reconnaissance surveys aimed at locating petroleum fields beneath part of the West African continental shelf known as the Guinea Terrace. One of the seismic sections revealed a ~9 km wide basin-like depression at the level of the Cretaceous-Palaeogene boundary, which is underlain by a prominent upward bulge in reflectors corresponding to the mid-Cretaceous, plus a large number of nearby faults (Nicholson, U., and 3 others 2022. The Nadir Crater offshore West Africa: a candidate Cretaceous-Paleogene impact structure. Science Advances, v. 8, article eabn3096; DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abn3096). Elsewhere on the Guinea Terrace the strata were featureless by comparison.

The Nadir crater showed many of the signs to be expected from an asteroid impact. That it drew attention stemmed partly from being of roughly the same age as the much larger 66 Ma Chicxulub impact off the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico: the likely culprit for the K-Pg mass-extinction event. Perhaps both impactors stemmed from the break-up of a large, near-Earth asteroid because of gravitational forces resulting from a previous close encounter with either the Earth or another planet. The crater lies at the centre of a 23 km wide zone of faults that only affect Cretaceous and older strata; i.e. they formed just before the K-Pg event. The seismic data also show signs of widespread liquefaction of nearby Cretaceous sedimentary strata and that the crater had been filled by sediments shortly after it formed. Yet the data were too fuzzy for an astronomical catastrophe to be absolutely certain: similar structures can form from the rise of bodies of rock salt, which is less dense than sediments and will dissolve on reaching the seabed.  The owners of the seismic data donated a much larger collection from a grid of survey lines. Processing of such seismic grids turns the collection of individual two-dimensional sections into a 3D regional data set showing the complete shape of subsurface structures. Seismic data of this kind enables more detailed structural and lithological interpretation of both cross section and plan views. They enable sedimentary layers to be ‘peeled’ back to examine the crater at all depths, in much the same manner as CT  and MRI scans reveal the inner anatomy of the human body.

Map of faults around the Nadir crater at a level in the 3D seismic data that was about 200 m below the sea bed at the time of the impact. (Credit: Nicholson, et al. 2024, Fig 6)

Uisdean Nicholson and a larger team have now published their findings from the 3D seismic data that show the structure in unique detail (Nicholson, U., and 6 others 2024. 3D anatomy of the Cretaceous–Paleogene age Nadir Crater. Communications Earth & Environment v. 5, article number 547; DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01700-4). Nadir crater was affected by spiral-shaped thrust faults that suggest it was formed by an oblique impact from the northeast by an object around 450 m across, probably travelling at 20 km s-1 at 20 to 40° to the surface. Seconds after excavation uplift of deeper sediments was a response to removal of the load on the crust. The energy was sufficient to vaporise both sediment and impactor within a few seconds, the to drive drive seawater outwards in a tsunami about half a kilometre high, which in about 30 seconds exposed the incandescent crater floor. In the succeeding minutes hours and days liquefied sea water sloshed in and out of the crater, repeated tsunami resurgence forming gullies on its flanks and transporting sediment mixed with glass (suevite) flowed to refill the crater.

Time line for the Nadir impact, derived from detail shown by 3D seismic data. (Credit: Nicholson, et al. 2024, Fig 7)

There is no means of assigning any of the K-Pg extinctions to the Nadir crater, just that it happened at roughly the same time as Chicxulub. But it is the first impact crater to reveal the processes involved through complete coverage by high-resolution 3D seismic data. The majority of the roughly 200 craters are on the continental surface, and were thus ravaged to some extent by later erosion. Yet of the influx of hypervelocity objects through time at least 70% must have struck the oceans, but only 15 to 20 are known. That may reflect the fact that much deeper water could have buffered even giant impacts from affecting the oceanic crust beneath the abyssal plains, whose average depth is about 4 km. Only a small proportion of the continental shelves deemed to contain petroleum reserves have been explored seismically.  Chicxulub itself has been drilled, but only two seismic reflection sections have crossed its centre since its discovery, although earlier 3D data from petroleum exploration cover its outermost northern parts. More detail is available for Nadir and its lower energy did not smash its structural results, unlike Chicxulub. So, despite Nadir’s smaller size, fortuitously it gives more clues to how such marine craters formed. It looks to be an irresistible target for drilling.

Drip tectonics beneath Türkiye

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Tectonics and geomorphology of Turkey showing the main fault systems. The Konya basin is enclosed by the grey rectangle at centre. (Credit: Taymaz et al. Geological Society of London, Special Publication 291, p1-16, Fig 1)

The 1.5-2.0 km high Central Anatolian plateau in Türkiye has been rising since ~11 Ma ago: an uplift of about 1 km in the last 8 Ma. However, part of the southern Plateau shows signs of rapidly subsidence that has created the Konya Basin, marked by young lake sediments. Interferometric radar (InSAR) data from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-1 satellite, which detects active movement of the Earth’s surface, reveal a crude, doughnut-shaped area of the surface that is subsiding at up to 50 mm per year. This ring of subsidence surrounds a core of active uplift that is about 50 km across (see the first figure). Expressed crudely, active subsidence suggests an excess of mass beneath the affected area, whereas uplift implies a mass deficit; in both cases within the lithosphere. So, when the InSAR data were published in 2020, it became clear that the lithosphere beneath Anatolia is doing something very strange.

Vertical velocities affecting the surface in the Konya Basin derived from InSAR data, velocities colour-coded cyan to blue show subsidence, yellow to red suggesting that the surface is rising. (Credit: Andersen et al., Fig 1c)

Canadian and Turkish geophysicists set out to find a tectonic reason for such aberrant behaviour (Andersen, A.J.  et al. 2024. Multistage lithospheric drips control active basin formation within an uplifting orogenic plateau. Nature Communications, v. 15, Article 7899; DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-52126-7). They wondered if a process known as ‘drip tectonics’, first mooted as an explanation of anomalous features in some mountain belts in 2004 (see: Mantle dripping off mountain roots, October 2004; and A drop off the old block? May 2008) might be applicable to the Anatolian Plateau. The essence of this process is similar to the slab-pull force at the heart of subduction. Burial and cooling of basaltic material in oceanic lithosphere being driven beneath another tectonic plate converts its igneous mineralogy to the metamorphic rock eclogite, whose density exceeds that of mantle rocks. Gravity then acts to pull the changed material downwards. However, Anatolia shows little sign of subduction. But the mantle beneath shows seismic speed anomalies that hint at anomalously dense material.

Seismic tomography shows that in a large volume 100 to 200 km beneath the central part of the Plateau S-waves travel faster than in the surrounding mantle. The higher speed suggests a body that is denser and more rigid than its surroundings. This could be a sinking, detached block of ‘eclogitised’ lithosphere whose disconnection from the remaining continental lithosphere has been causing the uplift of the Plateau that began in the Late Miocene. A smaller high-speed anomaly lies directly under the Konya Basin, but at a shallower depth (50 to 80 km) just beneath the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary. The authors suggest that this is another piece of the lower lithosphere that is beginning to sink and become a ‘drip’. Still mechanically attached to the lithosphere the sinking dense block is dragging the surface down.

Andersen et al. instead of relying on computer modelling created a laboratory analogue. This consisted of a tank full of a fluid polymer whose viscosity is a thousand times that of maple syrup that represents the Earth’s deep mantle beneath. They mimicked an overlying  plate by a layer of the same material with additional clay to render it more viscous – the model’s lithospheric mantle – with a ‘crust’ made of a sand of ceramic and silica spherules. A dense seed inserted into the model lithospheric mantle began to sink, dragging that material downwards in a ‘drip’. After that ‘drip’ had reached the bottom of the tank hours later, it became clear that another, smaller drip materialised along the track of the first and also began to sink. Monitoring of the surface of the ‘crust’ revealed that the initial drip did result in a basin. But the further down the drip fell the basin gradually became shallower: there was surface uplift. Once the initial drip had ‘bottomed-out’ the basin began to deepen again as the secondary drip formed and slowly moved downwards. The model seems to match the authors’ interpretation of the geophysics beneath the Anatolian Plateau. One drip created the potential for a lesser one, a bit like in inversion of the well-known slo-mo videos of a drop of milk falling into a glass of milk, when following the drop’s entry a smaller drop rebounds from the milky surface.

Cartoons of drip tectonics beneath the Anatolian Plateau. (a) Lower lithosphere detached from beneath Anatolia in the Late Miocene (10 to 8 Ma) descends into the mantle as it is ‘eclogitised’; (b) a smaller block beneath the Konya Basin beginning to ‘drip’, but still attached to the lithosphere. (Credit: Andersen et al., Fig 4)

In Anatolia the last 10 Ma has not been just ups and downs of the surface corresponding to drip tectonics. That was accompanied by volcanism, which can be explained by upwelling of mantle material displaced by lithospheric drips. When mantle rises and the pressure drops partial melting can occur, provided the mantle material rises faster than it can lose heat: adiabatic melting.

A new timeline for modern humans’ colonisation of Europe

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Aurignacian sculptures: ‘Lion-Man’ and ‘Venus’ from the Hohlenstein-Stadel and Hohle Fels caves in Germany.

The earliest culture (or techno-complex) that can be related to anatomically modern humans (AMH) in Europe is called the Aurignacian. It includes works of art as well as tools made from stone, bone and antler. Perhaps the most famous are the ivory sculptures of ‘Lion-Man’ and Venus of the Hohlenstein-Stadel  and Hohle Fels caves in Germany,  and also the stunning cave art, of Chauvet Cave in France. Aurignacian artefacts that are dated at 43 to 26 ka occur at sites throughout Europe south of about 52°N. It was this group of people who interacted with the original Neanderthal population of Europe and finally replaced them completely. There is a long standing discussion over who ‘invented’ the stone tools, both human groups apparently having used similar styles of manufacture (Châtelperronian). Likewise, as regards the subsistence methods deployed by each; in one approach Neanderthals may have largely restricted their activities to roughly fixed ranges, whereas the incomers were generally seasonal nomads. As yet it has not been possible to show if the interbreeding between the two, which ancient and modern genetic data show, preceded the Aurignacian influx or continued when the met in Europe. Whatever, Neanderthals as a distinct human group had disappeared from the geological record by 40 ka. (Note that the three thousand years of coexistence is as long as the time between now and the end of the Bronze Age, about 150 generations at least.) But that aspect of European human development is not the only bone of contention about the spread into Europe. How did the Aurignacian people fare during and after their entry into Europe?

Despite continuing discovery of AMH sites in Europe, and reappraisal of long-known ones, there are limits to how much locations, dates, bones and artifacts can tell us. The actual Aurignacian dispersal of people across Europe is confounded by the limited number of proven occupation sites. These were people who, like most hunter gatherers, must have moved continually in response to variations in the supply of resources that depend on changing climatic conditions. They probably travelled ‘light’, occupied many temporary camp sites but few places to which they returned generation after generation. Temporary ‘stopping places’ are difficult to find, showing little more than evidence of fire and a ‘litter’ of shards from retouched stone tools (debitage), together with discarded bones that show marks left by butchery. A group of archaeologists and climate specialists from the University of Cologne, Germany have tried to shed some light on the completely ‘invisible’ aspects of Aurignacian dispersal and subsistence using what they have called – perhaps a tribute to Frank Sinatra! – the ‘Our Way Model’ (Shao, Y. et al. 2024. Reconstruction of human dispersal during Aurignacian on pan-European scale. Nature Communications, v. 15, Article 7406; DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-51349-y. Click link to download a PDF).

The reality of hunter-gatherer life during a period of repeated rapid change in climate would clearly have been complex and sometimes precarious. To grasp it also needs to take account of human population dynamics as well as climatic and ecological drivers. The team’s basic strategy was to combine climate and archaeological data to model the degree to which human numbers may have fluctuated and the extent and direction of their migration. Three broad factors would have driven both: environmental change; culture – social change, curiosity, technology; and human biology. Really, environmental change is the only one that can be addressed with any degree of precision through records of climate change, such as Greenland ice cores. Archaeological data from known sites should provide some evidence for technological change, but only for two definite phases in Aurignacian culture (43-38 ka and 38-32 ka). Dating of   Aurignacian sites establishes some time calibration for episodes of occupation, abandonment and resettlement. Issues of human biology can be addressed to some extent from ancient genetics, where suitable bones are available. However, the ‘Our Way Model’ is driven by climate modelling and archaeology. It outputs an historical estimate of ‘human existence potential’ (HEP) that includes predictions of carbon storage in plants and animals – i.e.  potential food resources – expressed as regional population density in Europe. The technical details are complex, but Shao et al.’s conclusions are quite striking.

Maps of estimated anatomically modern human population density during the first six thousand years of Aurignacian migration and palaeoclimate record from the Greenland NGRIP ice core, with shaded warm episodes – red spots indicate the time of the population estimates above. (Credit: Shao et al. Fig. 1)

Climate change in the later stages of cooling towards the last glacial maximum at ~20 ka was cyclical, with ten Dansgaard-Oeschger cold stadial events capable of ‘knocking back’ both population density and the extent of settlement. In the first two millennia expansion from the Levant into the Balkans was slow. From 43 to 41 ka the pace quickened, taking the Aurignacian culture into Western Europe, with an estimate total European AMH population of perhaps 60 thousand. A third phase (41 to 39 ka) shrank the areas and densities of population during a prolonged cold period. The authors suggest that survival was in Alpine refuge areas that AMH people had occupied previously. Starting at around 38 ka, a lengthy climatic warm period allowed the culture to spread to its maximum extent reaching southern Britain and the north and east of the Iberian Peninsula. Perhaps by then the AMH population had evolved better strategies to adapt to increasing frigid conditions. But by that time the Neanderthals had disappeared from Europe freeing up territory and food resources. That too may have contributed to the expansion and the sustenance of an AMH total population of between 80 and 100 thousand during the second phase of the Aurignacian.

It’s as well to remember that this work is based on a model, albeit sophisticated, based on currently known data. Palaeoanthropology is extremely prone to surprises as field- and lab work progresses …

See also: New population model identifies phases of human dispersal across Europe. EurekaAlert, 4 September 2024; Kambani, K. 2024. The Dynamics of Early Human Dispersal Across Europe: A New Population Model. Anthropology.net, 4 September 2024.

Climate changes and the mass extinction at Permian-Triassic boundary

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The greatest mass extinction in Earth’s history at around 252 Ma ago snuffed out 81% of marine animal species, 70% of vertebrates and many invertebrates that lived on land. It is not known how many land plants were removed, but the complete absence of coals from the first 10 Ma of the Early Triassic suggests that luxuriant forests that characterised low-lying humid area in the Permian disappeared. A clear sign of the sudden dearth of plant life is that Early Triassic river sediments were no longer deposited by meandering rivers but by braided channels. Meanders of large river channels typify land surfaces with abundant vegetation whose root systems bind alluvium. Where vegetation cover is sparse, there is little to constrain river flow and alluvial erosion, and wide braided river courses develop (see: End-Permian devastation of land plants; September 2000. You can follow 21st century developments regarding the P-Tr extinction using the Palaeobiology index).

The most likely culprit was the Siberian Trap flood basalts effusion whose lavas emitted huge amounts of CO2 and even more through underground burning of older coal deposits (see: Coal and the end-Permian mass extinction; March 2011) which triggered severe global warming. That, however, is a broad-brush approach to what was undoubtedly a very complex event. Of about 20 volcanism-driven global warming events during the Phanerozoic only a few coincide with mass extinctions. Of those none comes close the devastation of ‘The Great Dying’, which begs the question, ‘Were there other factors at play 252 Ma ago?’ That there must have been is highlighted by the terrestrial extinctions having begun significantly earlier than did those in marine ecosystems, and they preceded direct evidence for climatic warming. Also temperature records – obtained from shifts in oxygen isotopes held in fossils – for that episode are widely spaced in time and tell palaeoclimatologists next to nothing about the details of the variation of air- and sea-surface temperature (SST) variations.

Modelled sea-surface temperatures in the tropics in the early stages of Siberian Trap eruptions with atmospheric CO¬2 at 857 ppm – twice today’s level. (Credit: Sun et al., Fig. 1A)

Earth at the end of the Permian was very different from its current wide dispersal of continents and multiple oceans and seas. Then it was dominated by Pangaea, a single supercontinent that stretched almost from pole to pole, and a surrounding vast ocean known as Panthalassa. Geoscientists from China, Germany, Britain and Austria used this simple palaeogeography and the available Early Triassic greenhouse-gas and  palaeo-temperature data as input to a climate prediction model (HadCM3BL) (Yadong Sun and 7 others 2024. Mega El Niño instigated the end-Permian mass extinction. Science 385, p. 1189–1195; DOI: 10.1126/science.ado2030  – contact yadong.sun@cug.edu.cn for PDF).. The computer model was developed by the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office to assess possible global outcomes of modern anthropogenic global warming. It assesses heat transport by atmospheric flow and ocean currents and their interactions. The researchers ran it for various levels of atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the estimate 100 ka duration of the P-Tr mass extinction.

The pole-to-pole continental configuration of Pangaea lends itself to equatorial El Niño and El Niña type climatic events that occur today along the Pacific coast of the Americas, known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. In the first, warm surface water builds-up in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It then then drifts westwards to allow cold surface water to flow northwards along the Pacific shore of South America to result in El Niña. Today, this climatic ‘teleconnection’ not only affects the Americas but also winds, temperature and precipitation across the whole planet. The simpler topography at the end of the Permian seems likely to have made such global cycles even more dominant.

Sun et al’s simulations used stepwise increases in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 from an estimated  412 parts per million (ppm) before the eruption of the Siberian Traps (similar to those today) to a maximum of 4000 ppm during the late-stage magmatism that set buried coals ablaze. As levels reached 857 ppm SSTs peaked at 2 °C above the mean level during El Niño events and the cycles doubled in length. Further increase in emissions led to greater anomalies that lasted longer, rising to 4°C above the mean at 4000 ppm. The El Niña cooler parts of the cycle steadily became equally anomalous and long lasting. This amplification of the 252 Ma equivalent of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation would have added to the environmental stress of an ever increasing global mean surface temperature.  The severity is clear from an animation of mean surface temperature change during a Triassic ENSO event.

Animation of monthly average surface temperatures across the Earth during an ENSO event at the height of the P-Tr mass extinction. (Credit: Alex Farnsworth, University of Bristol, UK)

The results from the modelling suggest increasing weather chaos across the Triassic Earth, with the interior of Pangaea locked in permanent drought. Its high latitude parts would undergo extreme heating and then cooling from 40°C to -40°C during the El Niño- El Niña cycles. The authors suggest that conditions on the continents became inimical for terrestrial life, which would be unable to survive even if they migrated long distances. That can explain why terrestrial extinctions at the P-Tr boundary preceded those in the global ocean. The marine biota probably succumbed to anoxia (See: Chemical conditions for the end-Permian mass extinction; November 2008)

There is a timely warning here. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is becoming stronger, although each El Niño is a mere 2 years long at most, compared with up to 8 years at the height of the P-Tr extinction event. But it lay behind the record 2023-2024 summer temperatures in both northern and southern hemispheres, the North American heatwave of June 2024 being 15°C higher than normal. Many areas are now experiencing unprecedentedly severe annual wildfires. There also finds a parallel with conditions on the fringes of Early Triassic Pangaea. During the early part of the warming charcoal is common in the relics of the coastal swamps of tropical Pangaea, suggesting extensive and repeated wildfires. Then charcoal suddenly vanishes from the sedimentary record: all that could burn had burnt to leave the supercontinent deforested.

See also: Voosen, P. 2024. Strong El Niños primed Earth for mass extinction. Science 385, p. 1151; DOI: 10.1126/science.z04mx5b; Buehler, J. 2024. Mega El Niños kicked off the world’s worst mass extinction. ScienceNews, 12 September 2024.

A 9-day seismic reverberation set off by a giant tsunami in a Greenland fjord

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In September 2023 the global network of seismic recorders detected a sequence of low-strength earth movements. It resembled the reverberation of a church bell albeit one that lasted for 9 days. rising and falling in strength every 90 seconds. For months this strange event on seismograms baffled geophysicists. All they could tell was that the signals did not show signs of having been generated by earthquakes; they were too regular. It was, however, possible to triangulate the position of the source of each individual event. There turned out to be only a single location for the seismic ‘campanology’ – at about 73° N on the eastern coast of Greenland, in Dickson Fjord and isolated branch of the enormous Kong Oscar Fjord system. Greenland is not noted for volcanic activity, ruling out the rumblings of a magma chamber that sometimes presages major eruptions. Whatever the cause, there were no human witnesses at the time. The only real clue lay at the start of the signal: the very long-period (VLP) signal was preceded by a sharp, high energy signal that could be matched with some kind of landslide.

View of a side glacier on Dickson Fjord, East Greenland where the tsunami occurred. Left – August 2023; right – 19 September 2023. The rocky peak at top centre on the left fell onto the glacier below to generate a rock-ice slide into the fjord. (Credit: Søren Rysgaard/Danish Army)

On 16 September 2023 the military base for the famous Sirius Dog Sled Patrol on Ella Island was smashed by a tsunami – fortunately it had been closed for the coming winter. When the Danish Navy patrolled Dickson Fjord some days later they found clear signs that the shores opposite the site of a recent colossal rock and ice slide (see images) had been scoured to a height of 200 m. For 5 km either side shoreline scouring averaged 60 m. The initial tsunami was gigantic, yet the fjord was able to contain its worst effects because the outlet to the rest of the system was at right angles to its trend. Some energy obviously was released to reach Ella Island near the mouth of the system to destroy the Danish Army post. The bizarre seismic signal was probably a result of the displaced water sloshing around in the fjord to dissipate the enormous energy released by the collapse of a mountain peak and a substantial amount of a valley glacier. Such behaviour is known as a seiche. Topographic analysis of Dickson Fjord enabled the researchers to calculate its resonant frequency: at 11 millihertz it matched that of the fluctuating seismic signal. (Svennevig, K. and 67 others 2024. A rockslide-generated tsunami in a Greenland fjord rang Earth for 9 days. Science, v. 385, p. 1196-1205; DOI: 10.1126/science.adm9247).

Valley glaciers in Greenland bolster their rocky flanks against collapse. With climatic warming being much faster there than for the rest of the world, its almost innumerable valley glaciers are shrinking. Yet they have been eroding the crust for tens of thousand years. The fjords that they occupied at the height of the last glacial maximum have very steep sides. Likewise, the remaining glaciers have carved U-shaped valleys. So when the glaciers retreat their exposed flanks become gravitationally unstable. Despite the fact that much of Greenland is underpinned by very hard crystalline rocks, that presents a major hazard for water craft. East Greenland’s spectacular scenery draws many tourist cruisers and Innuit fishing boats each summer. Moreover, removal of the ice load allows elastic strain that had built up in the upper crust to be released along joint systems that further weaken resistance to collapse.

A great deal of publicity has been given to the rapid melting of the huge ice sheet that covers most of Greenland. That is currently the biggest contributor to sea-level rise: a few millimetres per year. The Dickson Fjord event highlights the potential deadly threat of deglaciation, although the extremely complex nature of most of its fjord systems may prevent regional tsunamis from escaping their damping effect. Bu there are increasing dangers from the largest, more open fjords, such as Scoresby Sund, which conceivably might blurt catastrophic tsunamis towards Iceland, Svalbard and the west coast of Norway. Even small ones could wreak havoc on wildlife, such as seal and walrus nurseries.

See also: Carrillo-Ponce, A. et al. 2024. The 16 September 2023 Greenland Megatsunami: Analysis and Modeling of the Source and a Week‐Long, Monochromatic Seismic Signal. The Seismic Record, v. 4, p. 172-183; DOI: 10.1785/0320240013; Le Page, M. 2024. Greenland landslide caused freak wave that shook Earth for nine days. New Scientist 12 September 2024

Provenance of the Stonehenge Altar Stone: a puzzling development

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 Curiously, two weeks after my previous post about Stonehenge, a wider geochemical study of the Devonian sandstones and a number of Neolithic megaliths in Orkney seems to have ruled out the Stonehenge Altar Stone having been transported from there (Bevins, R.E. et al. 2024. Was the Stonehenge Altar Stone from Orkney? Investigating the mineralogy and geochemistry of Orcadian Old Red sandstones and Neolithic circle monuments. Journal of Archaeological Science: Reports, v. 58, article 104738;   DOI: 10.1016/j.jasrep.2024.104738). Since two of the authors of Clarke et al. (2024) were involved in the newly published study, it is puzzling at first sight why no mention was made in that paper of the newer results. The fact that the topic is, arguably, the most famous prehistoric site in the world may have generated a visceral need for getting an academic scoop, only for it to be dampened a fortnight later. In other words, was there too much of a rush?

The manuscript for Clarke et al. (2024) was received by Nature in December 2023 and accepted for publication on 3 June 2024; a six-month turnaround and plenty of time for peer review. On the other hand, Bevins et al. (2024) was received by the Journal of Archaeological Science on 23 July 2024, accepted a month later and then hit the website a week after that: near light speed in academic publishing. And it does not refer to the earlier paper at all, despite two of its authors’ having contributed to it. Clarke et al. (2024) was ‘in press’ before Bevins et al. (2024) had even hit the editor’s desk. The work that culminated in both papers was done in the UK, Australia, Canada and Sweden, with some potential for poor communication within the two teams. Whatever, the first paper dangled the carrot that Orkney might have been the Altar Stone’s source, on the basis of geochemical evidence that the grains that make up the sandstone could not have been derived from Wales but were from the crystalline basement of NE Scotland. The second shows that this ‘most popular’ Scottish source may be ruled out. To Orcadians and the archaeologists who worked there, long in the shade of vast outpourings from Salisbury Plain, this might come as a great disappointment.

Cyclical sediments of the Devonian Stromness Flagstones. (Credit Mike Norton, Wikimedia)

The latest paper examines 13 samples from 8 outcrops of the Middle Devonian Stromness Flagstones strata in the south of the main island of Orkney close to the Ring of Brodgar and the Stones of Stenness, and the individual monoliths in each. On the main island, however, there is a 500 m sequence of Stromness Flagstones in which can be seen 50 cycles of sedimentation. Each cycle contains sandstone beds of various thicknesses and textures. They are fluviatile, lacustrine or aeolian in origin. So the Neolithic builders of Orkney had a wide choice, depending on where they erected monumental structures. Almost certainly they chose monolithic stones where they were most easy to find: close to the coast where exposure can be 100 %. The Ring of Brodgar and the Stones of Stenness are not on the coast, so the enormous stones would have to be dragged there. There is an ancient pile of stones (Vestra Fiold) about 20 km to the NW where some of the mmegaliths may have been extracted, but ancient Orcadians would have been spoilt for choice if they had their hearts set on erecting monoliths!

In a nutshell, the geological case made by Bevins et al. (2024) for rejecting Orkney as the source for the Stonehenge Altar Stone (AS) is as follows: 1. Grains of the mineral baryte (BaSO4­) present in the AS are only found in two of the Orkney rock samples. 2. All the Orcadian sandstone samples contain lots of grains of K-feldspar (KAlSi3O8) – common in the basement rocks of northern Scotland – but the AS contains very little. 3. A particular clay mineral (tosudite) is plentiful in the AS, but was not detected in the rock samples from Orkney. Does that rule out a source in Orkney altogether? Well, no: only the outcrops and megalith samples involved in the study are rejected.

To definitely negate an Orcadian source would require a monumental geochemical and mineralogical study across Orkney; covering every sedimentary cycle. Searching the rest of the Old Red Sandstone elsewhere in NE Scotland – and there is a lot of it – would be even more likely to be fruitless. Tracking down the source for the basaltic bluestones at Stonehenge was easy by comparison, because they crystallised from a particular magma over a narrow time span and underwent a specific degree of later metamorphism. They were easily matched visually and under the microscope with outcrops in West Wales in the 1920s and later by geochemical features common to both.

But all that does not detract from the greater importance of the earlier paper (Clarke et al., 2024), which enhanced the idea of Neolithic cultural coherence and cooperation across the whole of Britain. The building of Stonehenge drew people from the far north of Scotland together with those of what are now Wales and England. Since then it hasn’t always been such an amicable relationship …

See also:  Addley, E. 2024. Stonehenge tale gets ‘weirder’ as Orkney is ruled out as altar stone origin. The Guardian 5 September 2024.

Geology cracks Stonehenge mysteries

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High resolution vertical aerial photograph of Stonehenge. (Credit: Gavin Hellier/robertharding/Getty)

During the later parts of the Neolithic the archipelago now known as the British Isles and Ireland was a landscape on which large stone buildings with ritual and astronomical uses were richly scattered. The early British agricultural societies also built innumerable monuments beneath which people of the time were buried, presumably so that they remained in popular memory as revered ancestors. Best known among these constructions is the circular Stonehenge complex of dressed megaliths set in the riot of earlier, contemporary and later human-crafted features of the Chalk downs known as Salisbury Plain. Stonehenge itself is now known to have been first constructed some five thousand years ago (~3000 BCE) as an enclosure surrounded by a circular ditch and bank, together with what seems to have been a circular wooden palisade. This was repeatedly modified during the following two millennia. Around 2600 BCE the wooden circle was replaced by one of stone pillars, each weighing about 2 t. These ‘bluestones’ are of mainly basaltic igneous origin unknown in the Stonehenge area itself. The iconic circle of huge, 4 m monoliths linked by 3 m lintel stones that enclose five even larger trilithons arranged in a horseshoe dates to the following two-centuries to 2400 BCE coinciding with the Early Bronze Age when newcomers from mainland Europe – perhaps as far away as the steppe of western Russia – began to replace or assimilate the local farming communities. This phase included several major modifications of the earlier bluestones.

It might seem that the penchant for circular monuments began with the Neolithic people of Salisbury Plain, and then spread far and wide across the archipelago in a variety of sizes. However, it seems that building of sophisticated monuments, including stone circles, began some two centuries earlier than in southern England in the Orkney Islands 750 km further north and, even more remote, in the Outer Hebrides of Scotland. A variety of archaeological and geochemical evidence, such as the isotopic composition of the bones of livestock brought to the vicinity of Stonehenge during its period of development and use, strongly suggests that people from far afield participated. Remarkably, a macehead made of gneiss from the Outer Hebrides turned up in an early Stonehenge cremation burial. Ideas can only have spread during the Neolithic through the spoken word. As it happens, the very stones themselves came from far afield. The earliest set into the circular structure, the much tinkered-with bluestones, were recognised to be exotic over a century ago. They match late Precambrian dolerites exposed in western Wales, first confirmed in the 1980s through detailed geochemical analyses by the late Richard Thorpe and his wife Olwen Williams-Thorpe of the Open University. Some suggested that they had been glacially transported to Salisbury Plain, despite complete lack of any geological evidence. Subsequently their exact source in the Preseli Hills was found, including a breakage in the quarry that exactly matched the base of one of the Stonehenge bluestones. They had been transported 230 km to the east by Neolithic people, using perhaps several means of transport. The gigantic monoliths, made of ‘sarsen’ – a form of silica-cemented sandy soil or silcrete – were sourced from some 25 km away where Salisbury Plain is still liberally scattered with them. Until recently, that seemed to be that as regards provenance, apart from a flat, 5 x 1 m slab of sandstone weighing about 6 t that two fallen trilithon pillars had partly hidden. At the very centre of the complex, this had been dubbed the ‘Altar Stone’, originally supposed to have been brought with the bluestones from west Wales.

The stones of Stonehenge colour-coded by lithology. The sandstone ‘Altar Stone’ lies beneath fallen blocks of a trilithon at the centre of the circle. (Credit: Clarke et al. 2024, Fig 1a)

A group of geologists from Australia and the UK, some of whom have long been engaged with Stonehenge, recently decided to apply sophisticated geochemistry at two fragments broken from the Altar Stone, presumably when the trilithons fell on it (Clarke, A. J. I. et al.2024.  A Scottish provenance for the Altar Stone of Stonehenge. Nature v.632, p. 570–575; DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07652-1). In particular they examined various isotopes and trace-elements in sedimentary grains of zircon, apatite and rutile that weathering of igneous rocks had contributed to the sandstone, along with quartz, feldspar, micas and clay minerals. It turned out that the zircon grains had been derived from Mesoproterozoic and Archaean sources beneath the depositional site of the sediment (the basement). The apatite and rutile grains show clear signs of derivation from 460 Ma old (mid-Ordovician) granites. The basement beneath west Wales is by no stretch of the imagination a repository of any such geology. That of northern Scotland certainly does have such components, and it also has sedimentary rocks derived from such sources: the Devonian of Orkney and mainland Scotland surrounding the Moray Firth. Unlike the lithologically unique bluestones, the sandstone is from a thick and widespread sequence of terrestrial sediments colloquially known as the ‘Old Red Sandstone’. The ORS of NE Scotland was deposited mainly during the Devonian Period (419 to 369 Ma) as a cyclical sequence in a vast, intermontane lake basin. Much the same kinds of rock occur throughout the sequence, so it is unlikely that the actual site where the ‘Alter Stone’ was selected will ever be known.

To get the ‘Alter Stone’ (if indeed that is what it once was) to Stonehenge demanded transport from its source over a far more rugged route, three times longer than the journey that brought the bluestones from west Wales: at least 750 km. It would probably have been dragged overland. Many Neolithic experts believe that transport of such a large block by boat is highly unlikely; it could easily have been lost at sea and, perhaps more important, few would have seen it. An overland route, however arduous, would have drawn the attention of everyone en route, some of whom might have been given the honour of helping drag such a burden for part of the way. The procession would certainly have aroused great interest across the full extent of Britain. Its organisers must have known its destination and what it signified, and the task would have demanded fervent commitment. In many respects it would have been a project that deeply unified most of the population. That could explain why people from near and far visited the Stonehenge site, herding livestock for communal feasting on arrival. Evidence is now pointing to the construction and use of the ritual landscape of Salisbury Plain as an all-encompassing joint venture of most of Neolithic Britain’s population. It would come as no surprise if objects whose provenance is even further afield come to light. It remained in use and was repeatedly modified during the succeeding Bronze Age up to 1600 BCE. By that time, the genetic group whose idea it was had been assimilated, so that only traces of its DNA remain in modern British people. This seems to have resulted from waves of immigrants from Central Europe, the Yamnaya, who brought new technology and the use of metals and horses.

See also: Gaind, N. & Smith, R. 2024. Stonehenge’s enigmatic centre stone was hauled 800 kilometres from Scotland. Nature, v. 632, p. 484-485; DOI: 10.1038/d41586-024-02584-2; Addley, E. 2024. Stonehenge megalith came from Scotland, not Wales, ‘jaw-dropping’ study finds. The Guardian, 14 August 2024.

News about ‘hobbits’ (Homo floresiensis)

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The roof lifted for palaeoanthropologists in October 2004 when news emerged of a fossil from Liang Bua cave on Flores in the Indonesian archipelago. It was an adult female human skull about a third the size of those of anatomically modern humans (see: The little people of Flores, Indonesia; October 2004). Immediately it was dubbed ‘Hobbit’, and from the start controversy raged around this diminutive human. The cave layer contained evidence of fire and sophisticated tools as well as bones of giant rats and minute elephants, presumed to be staple prey for these little people. Despite having brains about the size of a grapefruit – as did australopithecines – the little people challenged our assumptions about intelligence. Preliminary dating from 95 to 17 ka suggested they may have cohabited Indonesia with both H. erectus and AMH. Indeed, modern people of Flores tell legends of the little people they call Ebo Go Go. Like both their ancestors must have crossed treacherous straits between the Indonesian islands, which existed even when global sea level was drawn down by polar icecaps. Once an early suggestion that the original find was the skull of a deformed, microcephalic individual had been refuted by further finds in Flores, scientists turned to natural selection of small stature through living on a small island with limited resources – similar to the tiny elephant Stegodon and other island faunas elsewhere. By 2007, it had become clear from other, similar fossils that they were definitely a distinct species Homo floresiensis (see: Now we can celebrate the ‘Hobbits’! November 2007) with several anatomical similarities to H. erectus. Then more sophisticated dating revealed that the Flores cave sediments containing their fossils and tools spanned 100 to 60 ka, well before AMH reached Indonesia. By 2018 their arrival on Flores, marked by a mandible fragment and 6 teeth in sediments from sediment excavation at Mata Menge 70 km east of Luing Bua, had been pushed back to 773 ka.  At the new site stone tools were found in even earlier sediments (1.02 Ma). In 2019 evidence emerged that isolated island evolution in the Philippines had produced similar small descendants (H. luzonensis) by around 67 ka.

Artist’s impression of Homo floresiensis with giant rat. (Credit: Box of Oddities podcast)

The latest development is the finding of a fragment of an adult humerus (an arm bone) in the Mata Menge excavations that had yielded the oldest dates for Homo floresiensis fossils (Kaifu, Y. and 12 others 2024. Early evolution of small body size in Homo floresiensis. Nature Communications, v. 15, article number 6381; DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-50649-7). Comparing the teeth and arm-bone fragment with an intact adult from Liang Bua suggests that the earliest known ancestors of Homo floresiensis were even smaller. The teeth, albeit much smaller, resemble those of Indonesian specimens of H. erectus. That observation helps to rule out earlier speculation that the tiny people of Flores descended from the earliest humans from Africa (H. habilis) that were about the same size, but more than twice as old (2.3 to 1.7 Ma). The evidence points more plausibly towards their evolution from Asian H. erectus, who arrived in Java around 1.1 million years ago. Having solved the issue of ‘island hopping’ to reach Java a group of Asian H. erectus could have found their way to Flores. That island’s biological resources may not have met the survival requirements of a much larger human ancestor but evolution in isolation kept the arrivals alive. Within 300 ka, and perhaps much less for a small population, survival of smaller offspring allowed them a very long and apparently quite comfortable stay on the island. Though diminished in stature, they demonstrated the survival strategies conferred by being smart.

The gross uncertainty of climate tipping points

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That the Earth has undergone sudden large changes is demonstrated by all manner of geoscientific records. It seems that many of these catastrophic events occurred whenever steady changes reach thresholds that trigger new behaviours in the interlinked atmosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere, biosphere and lithosphere that constitute the Earth system. The driving forces for change, both steady and chaotic, may be extra-terrestrial, such as the Milankovich cycles and asteroid impacts, due to Earth processes themselves or a mixture of the two. Our home world is and always has been supremely complicated; the more obviously so as knowledge advances.  Abrupt transitions in components of the Earth system occur when a critical forcing threshold is passed, creating a ‘tipping point’. Examples in the geologically short term are ice-sheet instability, the drying of the Sahara, collapse of tropical rain forest in the Amazon Basin, but perhaps the most important is the poleward transfer of heat in the North Atlantic Ocean. That is technically known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation with the ominous acronym AMOC.

Simplified Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Red – warm surface currents; cyan – cold deep-water flow. (Credit: Stefano Crivellari)

As things stand today, warm Atlantic surface water, made more saline and dense by evaporation in the tropics is transferred northwards by the Gulf Stream. Its cooling at high latitudes further increases the density of this water, so at low temperatures it sinks to flow southwards at depth. This thermohaline circulation continually pulls surface water northwards to create the AMOC, thereby making north-western European winters a lot warmer than they would be otherwise. Data from Greenland ice cores show that during the climatic downturn to the last glacial maximum, the cooling trend was repeatedly interrupted by sudden warming-cooling episodes, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger events, one aspect of which was the launching of “armadas” of icebergs to latitudes as far south as Portugal (known as Heinrich events), which left their mark as occasional gravel layers in the otherwise muddy sediments on the deep Atlantic floor (see: Review of thermohaline circulation; February 2002).

These episodes involved temperature changes over the Greenland icecap of as much as 15°C.  They began with warming on this scale within a matter of decades followed by slow cooling to minimal temperatures, before the next turn-over. Various lines of evidence suggest that these events were accompanied by shutdowns of AMOC and hence the Gulf Stream, as shown by variations in the foraminifera species in sea-floor sediments. The culprit was vast amounts of fresh water pouring into the Arctic and northernmost Atlantic Oceans, decreasing the salinity and density of the surface ocean water. In these cases that may have been connected to repeated collapse of circumpolar ice sheets to launch Heinrich’s iceberg armadas. A similar scenario has been proposed for the millennium-long Younger Dryas cold spell that interrupted the onset of interglacial conditions. In that case the freshening of high-latitude surface water was probably a result of floods released when glacial barriers holding back vast lakes on the Canadian Shield burst.

At present the Greenland icecap is melting rapidly. Rising sea level may undermine the ice sheet’s coastal edges causing it to surge seawards and launch an iceberg armada. This may be critical for AMOC and the continuance of the Gulf Stream, as predicted by modelling: counter-intuitive to the fears of global warming, at least for NW Europe. In August 2024 scientists from Germany and the UK published what amounts to a major caution about attempts to model future catastrophes of this kind (Ben-Yami, M. et al 2024, Uncertainties too large to predict tipping times of major Earth system components from historical data, Science Advances, v. 10, article  eadl4841; DOI 10.1126/sciadv.adl4841). They focus on records of the AMOC system, for which an earlier modelling study predicted that a collapse could occur between 2025 and 2095: of more concern than global warming beyond the 1.5° C currently predicted by greenhouse-gas climate models .

Maya Ben-Yami and colleagues point out that the assumptions about mechanisms in Earth-system modelling and possible social actions to mitigate sudden change are simplistic.  Moreover, models used for forecasting rely on historical data sets that are sparse and incomplete and depend on proxies for actual variables, such as sea-surface and air temperatures. The further back in geological time, the more limited the data are. The authors assess in detail data sets and modelling algorithms that bear on AMOC. Rather than a chance of AMOC collapse in the 21st century, as suggested by others, Ben Yami et al. reckon that any such event  lies between 2055 and 8065 CE, which begs the question, “Is such forecasting  worth the effort?”, however appealing it might seem to the academics engaged in climatology. The celebrated British Met Office and other meteorological institutions, use enormous amounts of data, the fastest computers and among the most powerful algorithms on the planet to simulate weather conditions in the very near future. They openly admit a limit on accurate forecasting of no more than 7 day ahead. ‘Weather’ can be regarded as short-term climate change.

It is impossible to stop scientists being curious and playing sophisticated computer games with whatever data they have to hand. Yet, while it is wise to take climate predictions with a pinch of salt because of their gross limitations, the lessons of the geological past do demand attention. AMOC has shut down in the past – the last being during the Younger Dryas – and it will do so again. Greenhouse global warming probably increases the risk of such planetary hiccups, as may other recent anthropogenic changes in the Earth system. The most productive course of action is to reduce and, where possible, reverse those changes. In my honest opinion, our best bet is swiftly to rid ourselves of an economic system that in the couple of centuries since the ‘Industrial Revolution’ has wrought these unnatural distortions.

Tectonic history and the Drake Equation

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In 1961 ten scientists interested in a search for extra-terrestrial intelligence met at Green Bank, West Virginia, USA, none of whom were geologists or palaeontologists. The participants called themselves “The Order of the Dolphin”, inspired by the thorny challenge of discovering how small cetaceans communicated: still something of a mystery. To set the ball rolling, Frank Drake an American astrophysicist and astrobiologist, proposed an algorithm aimed at forecasting the number of planets elsewhere in our galaxy on which ‘active, communicative civilisations’ (ACCs) might live. The Drake Equation is formulated as:

ACCs = R* · fp · ne · fl · fi · fc · L

where R* = number of new stars formed per year, fp = the fraction of stars with planetary systems, ne = the average number of planets that could support life (habitable planets) per planetary system, fl = the fraction of habitable  planets that develop primitive life, fi = the fraction of planets with life that evolve intelligent life and civilizations, fc = the fraction of civilizations that become ACCs, L = the length of time that ACCs broadcast radio into space. A team of then renowned scientists from several disciplines discussed what numbers to attach to these parameters. Their ‘educated guesses’ were: R* – one star per year; fp – one fifth to one half of all stars will have planets; ne – 1 to 5 planets per planetary system will be habitable; of which 100% will develop life (fl) and 100% (fi) will eventually develop intelligent life and civilisations; of those civilisations 10 to 20 % (fc) will eventually develop radio communications; which will survive for between a thousand years and 100 Ma (L). Acknowledging the great uncertainties in all the parameters, Drake inferred that between 103 and 108 ACCs exist today in the Milky Way, which is ~100 light years across and contains 1 to 4 x 1011 stars).

Today the values attached to the parameters and the outcomes seem absurdly optimistic to most people, simply because, despite 4 decades of searching by SETI there have been no signs of intelligible radio broadcasts from anywhere other than Earth and space probes launched from here. This is humorously referred to as the Fermi Paradox. There are however many scientists who still believe that we are not alone in the galaxy, and several have suggested reasons why nothing has yet been heard from ACCs. Robert Stern of the University of Texas (Dallas), USA and Taras Gerya of ETH-Zurich, Switzerland have sought clues from the history of life on Earth and that of the inorganic systems from which it arose and in which it has evolved that bear on the lack of any corrigible signals in the 63 years since the Drake Equation (Stern, R.J & Gerya, T.V. 2024. The importance of continents, oceans and plate tectonics for the evolution of complex life: implications for finding extraterrestrial civilizations. Nature (Scientific Reports), v. 14, article 8552; DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-54700-x – definitely worth reading). Of course, Stern and Gerya too are fascinated by the scientific question as to whether or not there are ‘active, communicative civilisations’ elsewhere in the cosmos. Their starting point is that the Drake Equation is either missing some salient parameters, or that those it includes are assigned grossly optimistic magnitudes.

Life seems to have been present on Earth 3.8 Ga ago but multicelled animals probably arose only in the Late Neoproterozoic since 1.0 Ga ago. So here it has taken a billion years for their evolution to achieve terrestrial ACC-hood. Stern and Gerya address what processes favour life and its rapid evolution. Primarily, life depends on abundant liquid water: i.e. on a planet within the ‘Goldilocks Zone’ around a star. The authors assume a high supply of bioactive compounds – organic carbon, ammonium, ferrous iron and phosphate to watery environments. Phosphorus is critical to their scenario building. It is most readily supplied by weathering of exposed continental crust, but demands continual exposure of fresh rock by erosion and river transport to maintain a steady supply to the oceans. Along with favourable climatic conditions, that can only be achieved by an oxidising environment that followed the Great Oxidation Event (2.4 to 2.1 Ga) and continual topographic rejuvenation by plate tectonics.

A variety of Earth-logs posts have discussed various kinds of evidence for the likely onset of plate tectonics, largely focussing on the Hadean and Archaean. Stern and Gerya prefer the Proterozoic Eon that preserves more strands of relevant evidence, from which sea-floor spreading, subduction and repeated collision orogenies can confidently be inferred. All three occur overwhelmingly in Neoproterozoic and Phanerozoic times. Geologists often refer to the whole of the Mesoproterozoic and back to about 2.0 Ga in the Palaeoproterozoic as the ‘Boring Billion’ during which carbon isotope data suggest very little change in the status of living processes: they were present but nothing dramatic happened after the Great Oxidation Event. ‘Hard-rock’ geology also reveals far less passive extensional events that indicate continental break-up and drift than occur after 1.0 Ga and to the present. It also includes a unique form of magmatism that formed rocks dominated by sodium-rich feldspar (anorthosites) and granites that crystallised from water-poor magmas. They are thought to represent build-ups of heat in the mantle unrelieved by plate-tectonic circulation. Before the ‘Boring Billion’ such evidence as there is does point to some kind of plate motions, if not in the modern style.

How different styles of tectonics influence living processes differently: a single stagnant ‘lid’ versus plate tectonics. (Credit: Stern and Gerya, Fig 2)

Stern and Gerya conclude that the ‘Boring Billion’ was dominated by relative stagnation in the form of lid tectonics.  They compare the influence of stagnant ‘lid’ tectonics on life and evolution with that of plate tectonics in terms of: bioactive element supply; oxygenation; climate control; habitat formation; environmental pressure (see figure). In each case single lid tectonics is likely to retard life and evolution, whereas plate tectonics stimulates them as it has done from the time of Snowball Earth and throughout the Phanerozoic. Only one out of 8 planets that orbit the sun displays plate tectonics and has both oceans and continents. Could habitable planets be a great deal rarer than Drake and his pals assumed? [look at exoplanets in Wikipedia] Whatever, Stern and Gerya suggest that the seemingly thwarted enthusiasm surrounding the Drake Equation needs to be tempered by the addition of two new terms: the fraction of habitable exoplanets with significant continents and oceans (foc)and the fraction of them that have experienced plate tectonics for at least half a billion years (fpt). They estimate foc to be on the order of 0.0002 to 0.01, and suggest a value for fpt of less than 0.17. Multiplied together yields value between less than 0.00003 and 0.002. Their incorporation in the Drake Equation drastically reduces the potential number of ACCs to between <0.006 and <100,000, i.e. to effectively none in the Milky Way galaxy rising to a still substantial number

There are several other reasons to reject such ‘ball-parking’ cum ‘back-of-the-envelope’ musings. For me the killer is that biological evolution can never be predicted in advance. What happened on our home world is that the origin and evolution of life have been bound up with the unique inorganic evolution of the Solar System and the Earth itself over more than 4.5 billion years. That ranges in magnitude from the early collision with another, Mars-sized world that reset the proto-Earth’s geochemistry and created a large moon whose gravity has cycled the oceans through tides and changed the length of the day continually for almost the whole of geological history. At least once, at the end of the Cretaceous Period, a moderately sized asteroid in unstable orbit almost wiped out life at an advanced stage in its evolution. During the last quarter billion years internally generated geological forcing mechanisms have repeatedly and seriously stressed the biosphere in roughly 36 Ma cycles (Boulila, S. et al. 2023. Earth’s interior dynamics drive marine fossil diversity cycles of tens of millions of years. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, v. 120 article e2221149120; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2221149120). Two outcomes were near catastrophic mass extinctions, at the ends of the Permian and Triassic Periods, from which life struggled to continue. As well as extinctions, such ‘own goals’ reset global ecosystems repeatedly to trigger evolutionary diversification based on the body plans of surviving organisms.

Such unique events have been going on for four billion years, including whatever triggered the Snowball Earth episodes that accompanied the Great Oxygenation Event around 2.4 Ga and returned to coincide with the rise of multicelled animals during the Cryogenian and Ediacaran Periods of the Late Neoproterozoic. For most of the Phanerozoic a background fibrillation of gravitational fields in the Solar System has occasionally resulted in profound cycling between climatic extremes and their attendant stresses on ecosystems and their occupants. The last of these coincided with the evolution of humanity: the only creator of an active, communicative civilisation of which we know anything. But it took four billion years of a host of diverse vagaries, both physical and biological to make such a highly unlikely event possible. That known history puts the Drake Equation firmly in its place as the creature of a bunch of self-publicising and regarding, ambitious academics who in 1961 basically knew ‘sweet FA’. I could go on … but the wealth of information in Stern and  Gerya’s work is surely fodder for a more pessimistic view of other civilisations in the cosmos.

Someone – I forget who – provided another, very practical reason underlying the lack of messages from afar. It is not a good idea to become known to all and sundry in the galaxy, for fear that others might come to exploit, enslave and/or harvest. Earth is still in a kind of  imperialist phase from which lessons could be drawn!

Snowball Earth and the rise of multi-celled life

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You can follow my ‘reportage’ on the long running story of the Snowball Earth events during the Neoproterozoic Cryogenian Period (850 to 635 Ma) since 2000 through the index to annual Palaeoclimatology logs (15 posts). Once these dramatic events were over sedimentary rocks deposited around the world during the Ediacaran Period (635 to 541 Ma) record the sudden appearance of large-bodied fossils: the first multicellular animals. This explosion from slimy biofilms and colonies of single-celled prokaryotes and eukaryotes laid the basis for the myriad ecological niches that have characterised Planet Earth ever since. The change saw specialised eukaryote cells (see: The rise of the eukaryotes; December 2017), whose precursors had originated in single-celled forms, begin to cooperate inthe development of complex tissues, organs, and organ systems to form bodies rather than just cell walls. The pulsating evolution, diversification and repeated extinction that followed during the last one tenth of geological time shaped a planet that is unique in the Solar System and possibly in the galaxy, if not the entire universe. The simple biosphere that preceded it, on the other hand, may have emerged on innumerable rocky planets blessed with liquid water to survive little changed for billions of years, as have Earths’ prokaryotes, the Archaea and Bacteria.  

Artist’s impression of the Ediacaran Fauna (credit: Science)

The Ediacaran biological revolution followed repeated changes in the geochemistry of the oceans, which carbon isotope data from the Cryogenian and Ediacaran suggest to have ‘gone haywire’. This turmoil involved dramatic changes in the cycling of sulfur and phosphorus that help ‘fertilise’ the marine food chain and in the production of oxygen by photosynthesis that is essential for metazoan animals.  The episodes when the Earth was iced over reduced the availability of nutrients through decreased rates of ocean-floor burial of dead organisms. Such Snowball events would also have reduced penetration of sunlight in the oceans. Less photosynthesis would not only have reduced oxygen production but also the amounts of autotrophic organisms. Furthermore, decreased water temperature would have increased its viscosity thereby slowing the spread of nutrients. The food chain for heterotrophs was decimated. Each Snowball event ended with warming, ice-free conditions so that the marine biosphere could burgeon

A great deal of data and numerous theories have accumulated since the Snowball concept was first mooted, but there has been little progress in understanding the rise of multi-celled life. Four geoscientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the Santa Fe Institute and the University of Colorado (Boulder), USA have developed an interesting hypothesis for how this enormous evolutionary step may have developed (Crockett, W.W. et al. 2024. Physical constraints during Snowball Earth drive the evolution of multicellularity. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, v. 291; DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2023.2767). The concatenation of huge events during the Cryogenian and Ediacaran presented continually changing patterns of selective pressures on simple organisms that preceded that time period. Crockett et al. review them in the light of fundamental biology to suggest how multicellular animals emerged as the Ediacara Fauna. Intuitively, such harsh conditions suggest at worst mass, even complete, extinction, at best a general reduction in size of all organism to cope with scarce resources. That the size of eukaryotes should have grown hugely goes against the grain of most biologists’ outlook.

The authors consider the crucial factor to be fundamental differences between prokaryotes and early eukaryotes. Prokaryote cells are very small, and whether autotrophs of heterotrophs they absorb nutrients through their walls by diffusion. Single-celled eukaryotes are far larger than prokaryotes and typically have a flagellum or ‘tail’ so that they can move independently and more easily gather resources. Crockett et al. used computer modelling to simulate the type of life form that could grow and thrive under Snowball conditions. They found that prokaryotes could only grow smaller, being ‘stunted’ by scarce resources. On the other hand eukaryotes would be better equipped to gather resources, the more so if they adopted a simple multicellular form – a hollow, self-propelled sphere about the size of a pea, which the authors dub a choanoblastula. Although no such form is known today, it does resemble the green Volvox algae, and plausibly could have evolved further to the simple forms of the Ediacaran fauna. The next task is either to find a fossil of such an organism, or to grow one.