Climate change and global volcanism

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Geologists realized long ago that volcanic activity can have a profound effect on local and global climate. For instance, individual large explosive eruptions can punch large amounts of ash and sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere where they act to reflect solar radiation back to space, thereby cooling the planet. The 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo in the Philippines ejected 17 million tones of SO2; so much that the amount of sunlight reaching the Northern Hemisphere fell by around 10% and mean global temperature fell by almost 0.5 °C over the next 2 years. On the other hand, increased volcanic emissions of CO2 over geologically long periods of time are thought to explain some episodes of greenhouse conditions in the geological past.

Ash plume of Pinatubo during 1991 eruption.
Ash plume of Mount Pinatubo during its 1991 eruption. (credit: Wikipedia)

The converse effect of climate change on volcanism has, however, only been hinted at. One means of investigating a possible link is through the records of volcanic ash in sea-floor sediment cores in relation to cyclical climate change during the last million years. Data relating to the varying frequency volcanic activity in the circum Pacific ‘Ring of Fire’ has been analysed by German and US geoscientists (Kutterolf, S. et al. 2013. A detection of Milankovich frequencies in global volcanic activity. Geology, v. 41, p. 227-230) to reveal a link with the 41 ka periodicity of astronomical climate forcing due to changes in the tilt of the Earth’s axis of rotation. This matches well with the frequency spectrum displayed by changes in oxygen isotopes from marine cores that record the waxing and waning of continental ice sheets and consequent falls and rises in sea level. Yet there is no sign of links to the orbital eccentricity (~400 and ~100 ka) and axial precession (~22 ka) components of Milankovitch climatic forcing. An interesting detail is that the peak of volcanism lags that of tilt-modulated insolation by about 4 ka.

At first sight an odd coincidence, but both glaciation and changing sea levels involve shifting the way in which the lithosphere is loaded from above. With magnitudes of the orders of kilometres and hundreds of metres respectively glacial and eustatic changes would certainly affect the gravitational field. In turn, changes in the field and the load would result in stress changes below the surface that conceivably might encourage subvolcanic chambers to expel or accumulate magma. Kutterolf and colleagues model the stress from combined glacial and marine loading and unloading for a variety of volcanic provinces in the ‘Ring of Fire’ and are able to show nicely how the frequency of actual eruptions fits changing rates of deep-crustal stress from their model. Eruptions bunch together when stress changes rapidly, as in the onset of the last glacial maximum and deglaciations, and also during stadial-interstadial phases.

Whether or not there may be a link between climate change and plate tectonics, and therefore seismicity, is probably unlikely to be resolved simply because records do not exist for earthquakes before the historic period. As far as I can tell, establishing a link is possible only for volcanism close to coast lines, i.e. in island arcs and continental margins, and related to subduction processes, because the relative changes in stress during rapid marine transgressions and recessions would be large.. Deep within continents there may have been effects on volcanism related to local and regional ice-sheet loading. In the ocean basins, however, there remains a possibility of influences on the activity of ocean-island volcanoes, though whether or not that can be detected is unclear. Some, like Kilauea in Hawaii and La Palma in the Canary Islands, are prone to flank collapse and consequent tsunamis that could be influenced by much the same process. Another candidate for a climate-linked, potentially catastrophic process is that of destabilisation of marine sediments on the continental edge, as in the Storegga Slide off Norway whose last collapse and associated tsunami around 8 thousand years ago took place during the last major rise in sea level during deglaciation. The climatic stability of the Holocene probably damps down any rise in geo-risk with a link to rapid climate change, which anthropogenic changes are likely to be on a scale dwarfed by those during ice ages.

Further support for Homo floresiensis (the ‘hobbit’)

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English: Cave where the remainings of ' where ...
Liang Bua cave on Flores, Indonesia where fossils of Homo floresiensis were discovered in 2003 (credit: Wikipedia)

When they were first discovered in Liang Bua cave on the Indonesian island of Flores diminutive hominin remains sparked off a heated debate. Part of the reason for dispute was the age of the deposit in which they were found (18 to 850 ka), so young that it indicated possible cohabitation on the island with anatomically modern humans. On the one hand, the finders claimed that they represented a previously unknown hominin species. Other specialists considered that the tiny size (adults no taller than about a metre with brain capacity around that of australopithecines) indicated some congenital  dwarfism.

Homo floresiensis (the "Hobbit")
Homo floresiensis skull (credit: Wikipedia)

In the 9 years since the remains came to light, several anatomically features have been cited to support the view of a distinct hominin species: their lack of a chin and different arm and shoulder anatomy, which H. floresiensis shares with H. erectus and H. georgicus. The fossils are associated with simple stone tools and bones of a variety of prey animals that show cut marks and charring, suggesting that cooking was part of these hominins’ lifestyle; despite having small brains they were not unintelligent.

Substantial remains of nine or more individuals have been unearthed so that anatomical detail is almost complete. In 2007 details were published of three well-preserved wrist bones from the original find. They too were sufficiently different from modern and Neanderthal humans to warrant confirmation that H. floresiensis is indeed a distinct hominin species. Further work on wrist bones from other individuals has now more or less put the seal on this identity (Orr, C.M. et al. 2013. New wrist bones of Homo floresiensis from Liang Bua (Flores, Indonesia). Journal of Human Evolution, v. 64, p. 109-129), the authors  concluding that ‘The pattern of morphology … supports H. floresiensis as a valid taxon and refutes the hypothesis that these specimens represent modern humans with some kind of pathology or growth disturbance’. They take matters further by suggesting that their lineage was established before divergence of modern humans and Neanderthals. As with the shoulder morphology that of their wrists would have somewhat hindered tool-making dexterity, but nonetheless they did make tools.

Global groundwater depth

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The single most vital resource for human survival is clean, fresh drinking water. For a large proportion of the world’s population that right is not guaranteed, with harrowing consequences especially for children under 5-years old. Without careful processing surface water can only rarely be assumed fit to drink, especially in areas with dense populations of people, livestock or wildlife. Groundwater, on the other hand, has generally passed through aerated upper soil layers before it ended up below the water table in an aquifer. In that passage it is filtered and subject to various oxidising processes, both chemical and organic, that renders it a great deal more free of pathogens than standing or running surface water. Remarkably, a common mineral in any oxidised soil horizon is goethite, an iron hydroxide, which is capable of adsorbing a variety of potentially damaging ions.  So, of all fresh water that stored beneath the surface is the safest for people to drink.

By its very nature groundwater is hidden and requires both geological exploration and the drilling or digging of wells before it can become a resource. Areas underlain by simple stratiform sediments or lava flows present far less of a challenge than do geological settings with complex structures or that are dominated by ancient crystalline basement rocks. Time and again, however, crises in water supply arise from drought or sudden displacements of  populations a great deal faster than the pace of groundwater exploration or development needed to cope with shortages. Were the potential for subsurface supplies known beforehand relief would be both quicker and more effective than it is at present.

Image of simulated depth to water table for Africa (Courtesy of Y. Fan, Rutgers University, USA)
Image of simulated depth to water table for Africa (Courtesy of Y. Fan, Rutgers University, USA)

Thanks to three geoscientists from Rutgers University, USA and the University of Santiago de Compostela, Spain, (Fan, Y et al. 2013. Global patterns of groundwater table depth. Science, v. 339, p. 940-943) a start has been made in quantifying the availability of groundwater worldwide. They have modelled how the likely depth of the water table may vary beneath the inhabited continents. As a first input they digitised over 1.5 million published records of water table depths. Of course, that left huge gaps, even in economically highly developed areas. There is also bias in hydrogeological data towards shallow depths as most human settlements are above easily accessible groundwater.

To fill in the gaps and assess the deeper reaches of groundwater Fan et al. adapted an existing model that assumes groundwater depth to be forced by climate, topography and ultimately by sea-level. It is based on algorithms that predict groundwater flow after its infiltration from the surface. Such an approach leaves out drawdown by human interference and is at a spatial resolution that removes local complexities. The influence of terrain relies on the near-global elevation data acquired by NASA’s Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) in February 2000, resampled to approximately 1 km spatial resolution, supplemented by the less accurate Japan/US ASTER GDEM produced photogrammetrically from stereo- image pairs. Other input data are assumptions about variation in hydraulic conductivity, which is reduced to a steady decrease with depth, models of infiltration from the surface based on global rainfall and evapotranspiration patterns and those of surface drainage and slopes. No attempt was made to input geological information

The results have been adjusted using actual water-table depths as a means of calibration across climate zones on all inhabited continents. The article itself is not accessible without a Science subscription, but the supplementary materials that detail how the work was done are available to the public, and include remarkably detailed maps of simulated water table depths for all continents except Antarctica.  The detail is much influenced by terrain to create textures that override climate, which might suggests that the results flatter to deceive. Yet the modelling does result in valleys and broad basins of unconsolidated sediment showing shallower depths that tallies with the tendency for less infiltration where slopes are steep and run-off faster. The fact that the degree of fit between model and known hydrogeology is high does suggest that at the regional scale the maps are very useful points of departure for more detailed work that brings in lithological and structural information.

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Pushing back the origin of photosynthesis

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English: Rock sample from a banded iron format...
Sample from a banded iron formation (BIF) from the Barberton Greenstone Belt, South Africa. (credit:K. Lehmann and J.D. Kramers via Wikipedia)

More than a decade ago the oldest sedimentary rocks in the world at Isua in West Greenland hit the headlines, and not for the first time. Inclusions of graphite in crystals of the mineral apatite from the Isua supracrustals  had yielded carbon isotopes unusually deficient in 13C relative to 12C, which is often regarded as a sign that life was involved in the carbon cycle at the time. The Isua rocks have been reliably dated at around 3.8 billion years (Ga) so that added over 400 Ma to the time at which life was present on Earth. Sedimentary rocks formed at 3.4 Ga contain the first tangible signs in the form of stromatolites thought to have been secreted by biofilms of blue-green bacteria which are oxygen-generating photosynthesisers. Sadly, limestones at Isua, indeed all the putative sedimentary rocks there were metamorphosed and deformed plastically so that such features, if they were ever present, had been obliterated. Apatite was thought to be so strong and resistant to heating that carbon within its crystals would have preserved original isotopic ‘signatures’. Detailed studies to test this hypothesis refuted the early age for life, which reverted back to around 3.4 Ga. But Isua presents too good an opportunity for its geochemical secrets to be left uninvestigated.

The latest targets are its iron isotopes. Isua includes metamorphosed banded ironstones composed largely of magnetite and quartz. Magnetite is iron oxide (Fe3O4) and begs the question of how such an oxygen-rich mineral formed in such volumes in sediment if photosynthesizing life had not made elemental oxygen available. That would oxidize soluble ferrous ions (Fe2+) to the insoluble ferric form (Fe3+) in order for iron oxide to precipitate from sea water in large amounts. There is no other means known for oxygen to be produced in a planet’s surface environment. A team at the University of Wisconsin’s NASA Astrobiology Institute, led by Andrew Czaja and joined by Stephen Moorbath of the University of Oxford, who set the entire West Greenland story rolling by leading its geochronological investigation since the early 1970s, have made a breakthrough (Czaja, A.D. et al. 2013. Biological Fe oxidation controlled deposition of banded iron formation in the ca. 3770 Ma Isua Supracrustal Belt (West Greenland). Earth and Planetary Science Letters, v. 363, p. 192-203).

Any element that has more than one naturally occurring isotope offers the possibility of studying various kinds of chemical process by looking for changes to the relative proportions of the different isotopes. Having different relative atomic masses isotopes of an element have slightly different chemical properties so that one is likely to be more favoured in a reaction than another. In the case of iron, the most important reactions in surface processes are those that depend on reducing and oxidising conditions, i.e. producing soluble Fe2+ and insoluble Fe3+ respectively. Oxidation and precipitation of iron oxides and hydroxides tend to favour the heavier isotope 56Fe over the more common 54Fe resulting in an increase in the 56Fe/54Fe ratio (δ56Fe). This is found throughout the Isua ironstones, but may again reflect metamorphism. However, such was the detail of this study that δ56Fe values were measured for many individual bands. Instead of showing roughly the same values throughout the rock, each band had a different value. That strongly suggests that values produced during sedimentation had been preserved. It seems that a bacterial mechanism of oxidation was involved. Moreover, by comparing the 3.8 Ga Isua ironstones with examples dated at 2.5 Ga from Australia the team found different isotopic values that implicates different kinds of bacteria involved in producing apparently similar rock types. The twist is that the most likely bacterial type involved at Isua may have been a photosynthesiser, but not of the kind that releases elemental oxygen instead transferring it from water to combine directly with the ions of iron that its photosynthesis  had oxidised. The younger ironstones seem more likely to have involved cyanobacteria that do excrete oxygen; shortly after their formation the Earth’s surface increasingly became oxygen-bearing.

Throughout the Precambrian, BIFs appear and then vanish from the record only to reappear when geologist least expect them, for instance around the time of the Snowball Earth events in the Neoproterozoic Era. Iron isotopes could well become handy tools to probe the processes that formed them.

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K-T (K-Pg) event: can the havering stop now, please?

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Chicxulub impact - artist impression
Artist’s impression of the Chicxulub impact – (credit: Wikipedia)

Since 1980, when Alvarez père et fils discovered signs of a globe-affecting impact event in rocks marking the stratigraphic boundary at the end of the Mesozoic Era –between the Cretaceous and Palaeogene Periods – there has been continual bickering over the cause of the mass extinction at that time. Unlike other mass extinctions that one marked the end of an Era dominated in the popular mind by the iconic dinosaurs. Besides that focus, many geologists have been averse to external, ‘wham-bam-thank-you-ma’am’ explanations for shifts in the fossil record: a sort of Lyellian view that geological change had to be at the pace of the humble tortoise and must be due to something in the Earth system itself. Then a majority, this conservative faction looked instead to the effects of the voluminous basalt flood that had affected western India at around the same time. Incidentally, that apparent match to the end-Mesozoic extinction sparked an interest in volcanic associations with other mass extinctions.

Discovery by geophysicists of evidence for a large almost completely buried impact basin, about 180 km across, centred in the Caribbean off Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula swayed opinion towards an extraterrestrial cause when it became clear that the impact had occurred around the time of the K-Pg boundary, then placed at 65 Ma. Soon there were claims that the Deccan Traps had erupted in less than a million years at that time, together with doubts cast on the actual age of the Chicxulub crater. The time-spread of the Deccan volcanism enlarged with more dating to between 68 and 60 Ma; and so the to-ing and fro-ing continued, gleaning sizeable grants for entrepreneurial geoscientists keen on one or other of what were becoming bandwagon topics. Then the ‘golden spike’ marking the time of the mass extinction became the subject of controversy. A means of precise dating is to examine signs in sediments of cyclical climate change using the Milankovich approach, although before 50 Ma only the 405 ka cyclicity predicted from astronomy is readily detected. Using well-dated volcanic horizons to calibrate such a stratigraphic dating method might be the key, but it became apparent that 65.3, 65.7 or 66.1 Ma all seemed to have the same likelihood.

The two kill mechanisms that had been proposed are in fact very different, not merely in terms of what might have happened to atmospheric chemistry, climate, photosynthesis and so on, but concerning their timing. Repeated episodes of major basalt eruption every 100 ka or so would have had a chronic and perhaps cumulative effect on the Earth’s biota; i.e.  even a 10 Ma spread for Deccan basalt floods bracketing the actual die-off would be acceptable as a cause. An impact however takes no more than a second to occur, because of the hypersonic speed induced by Earth’s gravity as well as that of the asteroid through the Solar System. All its immediate effects – entry flash; crater excavation; debris fall-out; atmospheric dust and toxic gas accumulation; climate change; acid rain and tsunamis – would have been done and dusted over a matter of a few thousand years. The Chicxulub impact would have been a catastrophe that was instantaneous in geological terms. Its occurrence would need to bear the same date as the mass extinction itself to be seen as incontrovertible; well, at least to the majority of geoscientists. That point seems to have been reached.

As well as the crater, Chicxulub scattered molten rock far and wide to appear in the ‘boundary layer’ as glass spherules, which are dateable using radiometric means. So too is the timing of the mass extinction itself, provided suitable materials can be found above and below the strata across which fossil abundances change so dramatically. Paul Renne of the University of California, Riverside, and colleagues from the US, the Netherlands and Britain dated impact glasses from Haiti and volcanic ash from the late Cretaceous to early Palaeogene terrestrial sediments of Montana, USA that bracket the extinction event using multiple argon-isotope studies and the 40Ar-39Ar method (Renne, p.r. and 8 others 2013. Time scales of critical events around the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary. Science, v. 339, p.684-687. The glasses come out at 66.038+0.049 Ma, while the Ar-Ar age of volcanic ash just above the carbon-isotope anomaly that marks the world-wide disappearance of a large proportion of living biomass is 66.019+0.021 Ma. As they say, the ages are ‘within error’ and the error is very small indeed.

So, does this work mark the end of the K-Pg controversy? Probably not, as very large sums of grant money are still tied up with on-going studies. Perhaps to assuage the fears of all those still financially addicted to answering ‘what killed the dinosaurs?’, The abstract of the paper reads thus’ ‘The Chicxulub impact likely triggered a state shift of ecosystems already under near-critical stress’.

Artist's impression of the common ancestor of placental mammals (Credit: Science magazine)
Artist’s impression of the common ancestor of placental mammals (Credit: Science magazine)

Interestingly, in the very same issue of Science came a research article that reexamines taxonomy of 86 key living and fossil placental mammals in the light of genetic sequencing, to locate startigraphically their earliest common ancestor (O’Leary, M.A. and 22 others 2013. The placental mammal ancestor and the post-K-Pg radiation of placentals. Science, v. 339, p. 662-667). That seems to wrap up, for now, another controversy; did diminutive placental mammals arise unnoticed beneath the gaze of mighty dinosaurs, or what? It seems that some precursor mammals were able to diversify and produce a line whose fetuses grow and are nourished in the mothers uterus attached to a placenta, before live birth at an advanced stage of development, once opportunities for diversification emerged after the K-Pg event. Morphologically, the ancestor of everything from a naked mole rat to a blue whale and, of course, ourselves, seems to have been a sneaky-looking little beast with a long nose and pointy teeth. It does look like it, or its predecessor, could have scuttled unscathed amongst the leaf litter as dinosaurs engaged in their death prance…

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Update on a classic British field site

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English: Glacial erratic, Norber One of severa...
Glacial erratic at Norber Brown that sits nicely on a limestone plinth, dues to the erratic’s having protected the limestone underneath from erosion. (credit: Wikipedia)

Few expect Earth scientists to get all sentimental, but they do. My soft spot is for one of the most rewarding and least strenuous geological sites in Britain, Norber Brow near Austwick on the southern edge of the Yorkshire Dales National Park. As well as the famous glacial erratics of Silurian greywackes perched on Lower Carboniferous limestone, 250 m to the SE by a well-trodden path is the inverse, the Variscan unconformity at the base of the Carboniferous on the very same Silurian formation. I was lucky to be taken there at age 15 by Roy Happs who taught A-level Geology, and it decided my future, there and then.

The erratics don’t just site on the limestone, but are on pedestals up to 30 cm above the surrounding limestone surface as if carefully balanced by Beowulf’s assailant Grendel. Somehow, since the time glacial flow had deposited the Silurian boulders the underlying limestone had been dissolved away; but how fast was that? That is the key to the pace at which limestone pavement, to most general visitors such a stunning and unexpected feature of the Dales, might have formed. And such a delight to hear of its terminology: clints, redolent of the former Viking people of the Dales, that stand proud between deep fissures known as grikes, a suitably ominous term of unknown derivation. Such superbly fractal landforms are, of course, but one part of karst (from the eponymous region of limestone country in Slovenia).

English: Limestone Pavement at Twisleton Scar ...
A classic limestone pavement in the Yorkshire Dales National Park (credit: Wikipedia)

It is really satisfying to discover that a lot of cutting-edge science has recently been aimed at Norber from a substantial review in Earth Pages’ sister journal Geology Today (Wilson, P. et al. 2013. Dating in the Craven Dales. Geology Today, v. 29 (January-February Issue), p. 16-22). The length of time that the Norber erratics have been exposed to cosmic-ray bombardment has been determined from 10Be, 26Al and 36Cl analyses with a precision of ±1000 years to 17.9 ka, shortly after the last glacial maximum (LGM) when warming and glacial melting had just begun in this part of Yorkshire. That might seem to indicate an average of 330 mm of limestone had been dissolved over that period to form the pedestals, i.e. a dissolution rate averaging about 20 micrometres per year, which is extremely rapid, geologically speaking. In 1962 when I was show the site we were told that elsewhere the limestone pavement had formed since the first field systems (Iron Age) were laid out as now useless drystone walls crossed it. Roy Happs somewhat darkly suggested that they had formed since the start of the Industrial Revolution because of acid rain.

He was pretty much wrong on that score, but cosmogenic dating of the clints shows significant discrepancies between the age of deposition of the erratics and  and the exposure age of the clints. This suggests both chemical dissolution and also periods of frost shattering and gravel removal, perhaps by soil creep. Dating of other materials enlivens the history of local landform development. Another karstic feature is the presence of sinkholes or dolines that are often filled with yellowish silts that show clear textural evidence of being windblown sediments or loess. These aeolian sediments have long been regarded as post-LGM too, but optically stimulated luminescence dating of their quartz grains gives an age split between pre- (27.5 ± 2.6 ka) and post-LGM (16.5 ± 1.7 ka). Some loess elsewhere in Craven district comes out to be as young as 8.2 ka, to tally with evidence from Greenlandic ice cores for a sudden deterioration in North Atlantic seaboard climate during this early time in the Holocene.

Then there are the local caves, renowned in Victorian times for their cave bears and other mammal fossils. One bear skull from Victoria Cave in the Craven area gave a 14C age of 14.6 ± 0.4 ka which statistically coincides with that from a cut-marked horse vertebra. More than likely the bears were turfed out when humans reached Craven, but did they return when humans fled in the face of the Younger Dryas return to frigid-desert conditions? Probably not, as the YD would almost have sterilized what are now the Yorkshire Dales. Even earlier ages of 114 ka from U-Th dating of calcite flowstone that embeds hippo, elephant, rhino and hyena bones in Victoria Cave date to the previous Eemian interglacial. Indeed this speleothem has yielded ages as far back as the limit of the U-Th method (%00 ka). On a solo expedition in 1964 I had the chance to sleep-over in Victoria Cave, but pressed on with goose bumps to the nearby Youth Hostel.

Geology and creationism

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Anti-evolution car in Athens, Georgia
Creationist car in Athens, Georgia (credit:Amy Watts via Wikipedia)

Creationism is a topic about which I would not normally comment for much the same reason that once prompted pub landlords to have a sign behind the bar reading ‘No politics, no religion’. Yet geology has played an historically central role in the debate about Genesis vs Science. An excellent summary of how this emerged and was fundamentally resolved in favour of scientific endeavour, even if the ‘Genesisists’ have not been entirely rooted out,  appeared in the Geological Society of America’s GSA Today in November 2012 (Montgomery, D.R. 2012. The evolution of creationism. GSA Today, v. 22, p. 4-9).

Starting with Steno’s break with a literal acceptance of Genesis in 1669, the dominant view grew among clerics as well as scientists – ‘back in the day’ often one and the same – that the Earth was far older and its history one of changing natural processes. That outlook prevailed to strengthen through the late-18th and 19th centuries. Of course there was a tendency among ‘people of the Book’ somehow to blend their religious and scientific views, along the line that ‘scientific revelations that contradicted biblical interpretations provided natural guidance for better interpreting scripture’. But by the end of the 19th century there were very few literal creationists though a great many Christians who endorsed attempts to reconcile biblical text and geology.  Yet long after the Reverend William Buckland finally admitted in the mid-19th century that his imagination had ruled his zealous quest for evidence of a Noachian Flood and abandoned a literal idea of that and other aspects of Genesis there remained a persistent dribble of creationism.

Young-Earth Creationism
A wry view of Young-Earth Creationism (Photo credit: seriouscher)

That minor current split in the 20th century into a ‘tanky’ tendency that defended young-Earth creation and a global flood in the last ten thousand years, and a more ‘moderate’ wing of ‘old-Earth’ creationists. ‘Old-Earthers’ happily accept geological evidence of great antiquity, but maintain that God made it for eventual use by humanity; i.e. it had just sat around awaiting Adam and Eve being expelled from Eden. Both wings evolved along equally bizarre paths using a logic that boils down to a blend of perversity and simply ignoring any contrary evidence, such as that unearthed by Buckland long before. For instance when confronted by the fact that the deepest parts of the oceans contain less sediment than has accumulated on the continents, they defy gravity by insisting that ocean basins were eroded out by the Flood and then deposited with all their internal structures intact on higher ground.

Unsurprisingly, most creationists believe that there has been a centuries-long conspiracy by scientists to mislead the rest of humanity. Were it not for the fact that more than 40% of people in the United States believe in young-Earth creation, David Montgomery’s account of what is now a somewhat one-sided yet stupidly lively debate as regards true evidence would be amusing. His concluding sentence, ‘How many creationists today know that modern creationism arose from abandoning faith that the study of nature would reveal God’s grand design for the world?’ is probably one of the best ways of enraging any creationist who tries to enlighten you: he/she will certainly not just go away, but in the foam they generate you should be able to make good your escape.

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The production of geoscientists: a cautionary tale from the Open University

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Despite global recession, worldwide job opportunities for geoscientists are increasing faster than the number of available applicants. In the US the Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts 21% growth in this sector in 2010-2020 (Perkins, S. 2011. Geosciences: Earth works.  Nature, v. 473, p. 243–244). That figure does not include jobs freed-up by retirement: the demographics of employed geoscientists in the petroleum and mining industries are skewed markedly to the over-40s, peaking at age 50.

The American Geological Institute’s Geoscience Workforce Program has reported that the regions that produce most geoscience graduates, the US, Europe, Russia and China, are not meeting their domestic needs let alone global requirements. The demand stems from the traditional petroleum and mineral industries that are booming, together with the renewable energy sector and growing concern about environmental hazards and impacts attending global warming.

An editorial (Rare Earth scientists) in the December 2012 issue of Nature Geoscience is headlined, ‘Not enough young people enter the geosciences. A passion for the subject should be sparked early on.’ It then comments that the decline in young people studying the geosciences at school stems from Earth science not being taken seriously, under-education of their teachers and budgetary sacrifice of geoscience to preserve the more ‘traditional’ science subjects. The leading article concludes, ‘On an increasingly vulnerable planet, governments need to teach the young people of their country an understanding of the Earth’s basic make-up and dynamics, along with inspiring a fascination for its age and beauty. How else can we expect humanity to survive the Anthropocene?’

Open University
Creative work on the Open University campus (Photo credit: ianonline)

For over 40 years the Open University has been a key UK educator in geoscience. Since 1971 a total of about 170 thousand, mainly British students have studied at home through the OU for a science-based degree. Discovering tectonics, Earth structure, geology and palaeontology through studying the Science Foundation Course must have been a thrilling experience because since 1972, when the OU began to offer a level-2 course in Geology, around 30 thousand of its science ‘beginners’ decided to find out more; an average enrolment of 760 per year. The OU’s Department of Earth Sciences added more level-2 courses so that by 2000, students could also study economic geology (The Earth’s Physical Resources – 18 500 students from 1974 to 2009, averaging 544 per year), planetary science (The Earth: Structure, Composition and Evolution- 14 100 students from 1981 to 2005, averaging 590 per year) and Earth-system science (Earth and Life –7121 students from 1997 to 2006, averaging 712 per year).

After 1981 Open University students could, and many did, aim for a geoscience-oriented degree that also took in three, more advanced, level-3 studies. These were Oceanography (12 121 students from 1989 to 2012, averaging 505 per year), stratigraphy (The Geological Record of Environmental Change – 7968 students from 1976 to 2012, averaging 295 per year) and Earth’s internal processes (Understanding the Continents – 6994 students from 1976 to 2012, averaging 259 per year).

In this way the Open University became one of the world’s largest single providers of geoscience education, if not the largest: in the whole of the United States fewer than 3000 first degrees majoring in geoscience are awarded annually. Yet from its inception the OU’s Department of Earth Sciences had never claimed to be training professional geologists: had it been, its graduates would have significantly affected the world’s employment opportunities in the discipline. In fact that claim could never have been made, for one simple reason: distance learning for part-time students would always struggle to provide the volume of hands-on practical training that is the quintessence of this pre-eminently field- and lab-based discipline. Nevertheless the OU’s range of residential schools where practical activities were intensively provided for went a good way towards filling this gap.

English: Waterfall Geologists, from the Open U...
Open University students at the now defunct Geology summer school, inspecting a fault. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

So, to those unfamiliar with the realities of the OU milieu it will seem odd that in 2012 the world’s largest provider of distance learning axed all residential courses right across the science spectrum, including those in practical geoscience. But to those directly involved this move was the logical final step in a series of changes since 2001. Before that, for those courses that included a residential component attendance had been compulsory, except in special circumstances. Yet after 2001 university authorities deemed that the residential schools continue only as optional components for degree study and should carry an additional registration fee. Not surprisingly, in the case of the core level-2 Geology course attendance at the re-branded residential school declined to 30% after 2001.

Two other important developments attended this change in the Earth Science degree programme. After 2001 pass rates fell abruptly. For example, in the Science Foundation Course the rate fell from an annual average of 69 to 54%, and in level-2 Geology from 65 to 55%. Because residential schools played a vital role in boosting confidence and reinforcing home studies, equally as important as transferring practical skills, this dramatic fall in performance was only too predictable.

The other post-2001 development was an across-the-board fall in new registrants for Earth Science level-2 courses, especially in those that had previously not been served by residential studies: The Earth: Structure, Composition and Evolution from a pre-2001 average of 680 per year to 470 thereafter; Earth and Life from 866 to 558; The Earth’s Physical Resources from 795 to 456. The majority of those who enrolled for these courses having previously studied the core Geology course such dramatic declines are easily explained. Those who had opted out of the residential course missed its undoubted boost to confidence and enthusiasm, and reinforcement in basic geoscientific principles. More likely to underperform in the Geology course, they would not have felt equipped to deal with other level-2 courses, and ‘voted with their feet’.

Since its launch, The Earth’s Physical Resources course had been acclaimed by geoscience teachers internationally for having made economic geology fascinating rather than a chore. In 2005-7 it had been completely refurbished and rising registrations bucked the downward trend. Yet in 2009, it was axed with little discussion. Declining enrolment for The Earth and Earth and Life prompted management to withdraw both and combine parts of their content in a single course Our Dynamic Planet: Earth and Life. Launched in 2007, by 2012 it attracted a mere 217 applicants. In 2013 it too will be withdrawn from the curriculum.

In late 2010 the OU’s Department of Earth Sciences held a celebration of its 40-year existence; yet only a year later in 2011 the department that had brought plate tectonics, advanced palaeontology, unravelling past climates, physical resources; planetary science and much besides to the widest student audience ever achieved ceased to be. It was merged into a restructured entity called the Department of Environment, Earth and Ecosystems. There seems to have been a failure of nerve and leadership that may have important consequences not only for the future of geoscience as a discipline and among the wider public but for the very knowledge necessary for our national and human survival.  The future availability of remaining geoscience courses is uncertain, with all being expected to start for the last time within the next year or two. Perhaps some major transformation to meet increased needs for general public awareness of the way our planet works is being planned: let’s hope so and that any new offerings have as much impact as the earlier courses did before the start of the 21st century. It will be a hard task, as the Open University tripled its fees for students entering the OU system from 2012 onwards.

NOTE: (added 11 February 2013) The Open University has been offered the right of reply to this item.

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Hominin evolution becoming a thicket

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Scientific American is renowned for its eminently readable reviews of both emerging and perennial topics. Its February 2013 issue takes on one that is guaranteed to run and run; the evolutionary course that produced us (Harman, K. 2013. Shattered ancestry. Scientific American, v. 308 (February 2013), p. 36-43). Since its launch Earth Pages has covered much of the new science in the field but did not anticipate the depth of the stir towards which it has led.

Australopithecus afarensis reconstruction
Australopithecus afarensis reconstruction (credit: Wikipedia)

For a decade it has become increasingly clear that anatomically modern humans are unique in one respect: they are the first species in perhaps 4 million years to be the sole extant member of the cladistic tribe Hominini. As recently as 30 ka Homo sapiens shared the planet with Neanderthals, Denisovans, H. erectus and H. floresiensis. At the time the genus Homo emerged around 2.0-2.5 Ma ago there were at least four other fossil groups that shared the major characteristic of upright gait, all australopithecines in ‘robust’ and ‘gracile’ guises.

As time goes by there will likely be more fossil discoveries that show important anatomical signs of other novel evolutionary divergence, which therefore warrant new species. Pliocene-Pleistocene time is becoming crowded, and the more diversity in its fossil record the less likely it is that some clear evolutionary pathways can be devised to explain just what was going on. Katherine Harmon of Scientific American’s editorial team touches on the thorny issues of upright walking and gait, tree climbing, precise use of the fingers and thumb, and brain size that are raised by 22 species; 2 living and 20 extinct.

Genetics clearly indicates that our nearest living relatives belong to two species in the genus Pan(chimpanzees and bonobos). It has been generally assumed that the common ancestor of this extant kinship some 8 Ma back was chimp-like, and that evolutionary divergence from its habits and anatomy produced the growing ‘bramble patch’ of hominin evolution. That assumption is based on the principle of parsimony, i.e. the simplest view of the evidence – what there is now and fragments from the past eight million years. The trouble is there is a dearth of fossils that can be said to be en route to chimps in some way.

In fact today’s chimps and bonobos are more or less restricted to clambering in tropical forest habitats, for which they are well-adapted. Maybe they are the survivors of evolutionary vagaries just as complex as those leading to us. For one thing, almost embarrassingly, their brain size is substantially larger than those of quite a few fossil hominins; and why not? How they behave socially may possibly have arisen as part of their specialisation too, of which more shortly. Our big difference from them is being supreme generalists, as well as consciousness.

All the fossils classed as hominins show some signs of being able to walk upright, classically the forward position of the foramen magnum at the base of the skull where it joins to the backbone, but in some cases merely the geometry of the hip joint to the pelvis for that is all that has been found. Yet that anatomical likelihood glosses over the vital detail of the actual gait – heel-to-toe like us (Australopithecus afarensis),  on the outside edge of the foot akin to chimps (Ardepithecus ramidus) or differently again but possible as efficient as us (Au. sediba). Then there is the matter of arboreal abilities: chimps are masters despite their bulk, but every hominin whose foot bones have been found shows some evidence of grasping with the big toe. Indeed humans are pretty nimble climbers but do not brachiate from branch to branch.

As regards the hands, an interesting point is that while chimpish knuckle walking is not seen in fossils, Ardipithecus probably could walk on all fours with hands flat on the ground but had fingers quite capable of precise manipulation, an ability shown spectacularly well by 2 Ma old Au. sediba. Upright walking may have evolved more than once, and it is even possible that chimps evolved specifically for climbing in forestlands, their highly adapted grasping hands only capable of knuckle walking on the ground.

English: Fossil of Oreopithecus bambolii, an e...
Oreopithecus bambolii from the Upper Miocene of northern Italy(credit: Wikipedia)

The late-Miocene of Africa – the likely time range for the Pan-Homo common ancestor – is a fossil desert as regards primates. Yet its Italian equivalent has yielded a fascinating and well-preserved creature; Oreopithecus bambolii has skeletal features compatible with an upright posture and bipedal locomotion. Until the African Miocene yields something more appropriate, Oreopithecus is a candidate for a common ancestor, and interesting in another respect. Its dentition does not include prominent canine teeth that in the predominantly vegetarian, though occasionally carnivorous, Pan species serve well in their aggression-based, hierarchical social systems, as they do in the even more spectacular baboons.

Christopher Boehm, primate behaviouralist cum anthropologist, in his recent book Moral Origins (2012 Basic Books, ISBN-13: 978-0465020485) uses the principle of parsimony to reconstruct the social system of the Miocene Pan-Homo common ancestor from those of chimps and surviving human hunter-gatherers. His thesis is that it was centred on the hierarchical dominance of ‘alpha’ males, as is that of chimps. Prolonged social selection in hominin evolution largely tempered such a ‘Big Man’ tendency through a variety of strategies directed by majorities. Social punishments, including capital punishment, evolved to combat free-loading, theft and individual dominance in favour of cooperative egalitarianism. Such measures developed increasingly conscious self-suppression of such traits that eventually manifested themselves as what we now regard as human morals. Boehm considers that this psychological trend in evolution accelerated once Homo sapiens began hunting of large prey animals that added substantially to diet.

Aggressive male chimpanzee (Credit: Daily Mail)
Aggressive male chimpanzee (Credit: Daily Mail)

There is a major problem for this view: like Oreopithecus every well-preserved hominin species, even the earliest Sahelanthropus tchadensis, do not have prominent canines irrespective of whether they show evidence of at least partial meat-eating or pure vegetarianism. For some species with many fossil members, such as Au. afarensis, there are signs of sexual dimorphism – larger males than females – but that does not necessarily signify hierarchical social behaviour. With the appearance of H. erectus that difference wanes to the present slight differences between modern male and female humans.

Scrum
Agressive male humans, note gumshields (credit: John_Scone via Flickr)

If it is valid – and who knows? – for morphology to give clues to social behaviour, then it is equally likely that the beginnings of the hominin evolutionary thicket may well have involved a trend in social behaviour towards cooperative action; 8 million years ago. For generally small, gracile creatures with habits no more threatening to the big predators of the African savannahs that that of the porcupine, there would have been a powerful selection pressure towards a united front. Of course, in the last ten thousand years since the shift to economic strategies based on storable surpluses and their expropriation, hierarchical social systems with violence at their heart emerged among modern humans. Judging by the body shapes and dentition of extant ‘alphas’, as in capital’s boardrooms and among the frontbenchers at Westminster, anthropology clearly is in need of some refinement…

Mercury: sometimes a moist, organic-rich world

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Full-color image of from first MESSENGER flyby
Full-colour image of Mercury from MESSENGER  (credit: NASA via Wikipedia)

Astronomers welcomed in 2013 by suggesting from Kepler spacecraft data that the Milky Way galaxy alone probably hosts at least a hundred billion extrasolar planets and that a potentially habitable world the size of Earth probably lies within 20 light years of ours (go.nature.com/pxgbbt). OK, so there are at least 10-15 planets out there for every person likely to be alive by the mid-21 century when the technology becomes available to judge whether or not any of them hold a shred of interest for a population facing worsening living conditions right here.

Mercury is closer and currently being peered at in considerable detail by NASA’s MESSENGER mission to the Sun’s closest planet. The venture seems to have justified itself – and probably JAXA/ESA’s forthcoming BepiColumbo to be launched in 2015, arriving in 2022 – by showing that the long suspected ‘cold traps’ at Mercury’s poles have indeed trapped something: ice and abundant organic debris (Neuman, G.A . and 10 others 2013. Bright and dark polar deposits on Mercury: evidence for surface volatiles. Science, v. 339, p. 296-300).

The planet is exceeding rough, having been hit by objects of all sizes yet possessing insufficient internal energy to repave itself. Its axis of rotation is at a right angles to Mercury’s orbital plane, much like that of the Moon, so its polar regions are perpetually short of solar radiation. Deeply shadows places have been measured by infrared radiometry to be as cold as 25 degrees above absolute zero. Any volatile materials that might have landed in them or condensed there from earlier atmospheres might seem likely to stay there indefinitely. Not quite so, for the most likely compound, water ice, can sublimate away (shift directly from the solid to vapour state). Nevertheless, remote sensing shows the north pole region to be somewhat mottled dark and light on shadowed poleward-facing surfaces. The properties of backscattered radar beams and detection of emitted neutrons are consistent with the bright areas being water ice (Lawrence, D.J. and 12 others 2013. Evidence for water ice near Mercury’s north pole from MESSENGER neutron spectrometer measurements. Science, v. 339, p. 292-296). First estimates give a total ice volume of around 10 to 1000 km3 compared with almost 3 million km3 in the Greenland ice cap.

It’s the dark stuff that sets Mercury apart from, say, the Martian or lunar poles, the idea being that comets or icy asteroids impacting Mercury would have delivered complex organic compounds as well as water ice. This would temporarily give otherwise airless Mercury an atmosphere of volatiles parts of which might condense in the perpetually shaded parts of the polar region. Sublimation of exposed ice would have left a residue rich in those organic compounds that eventually protected deeper ice from fading away with time.

Now, imagine how supremely excited exo-planet hunters would be if they picked up such signals from a truly far-off world.

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Porphyry deposits and the fracking mechanism

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brothers in arms
Porphyry sculpture of two of the four co-emperors of the late Roman Empire – the Tetrarchy (credit: mhobl via Flickr)

For about a century a style of mineral deposit that develops in and around shallow, silicic magma chambers has dominated world supplies of copper, molybdenum and, more rarely, tin. They are also enriched in other valuable elements, including gold and silver, which makes these deposits even more attractive to mine. Hosting them are fine-grained diorites and granodiorites that typically contain large crystals of quartz and feldspar set in the finer material. Technically such rocks are called porphyries; well not so technical because the name derives from many porphyries having a colour much valued by Egyptian and especially Roman  sculptors and architects – a reddish purple close to that on the hem of an nobleman’s toga. The dye comes from the ‘purple’ fish – the marine mollusc Murex brandaris – which the ancient Greeks referred to as porphura. In Rome, ‘The Purple’ were the nobs, and today they are the cardinals. The connection is coincidental, the best and most enduring rocks for sculpting and making pyramids are of this kind, but happen to be purple. Of course, there are igneous rocks with the eponymous texture but different colours, but stonemasons in the ancient world never bothered to give them a special name

The porphyritic texture signifies to virtually every geologist a magmatic history in which an igneous magma resided deep in the crust slowly crystallizing large mineral grains. Then, for one reason or another, it was blurted towards the surface. Porphyry copper and molybdenum deposits have a disturbingly phallic shape; a tall, rough cylinder capped by a bell-shaped zone of mineralisation. And they are pretty big, the largest at Bingham Canyon in Utah, USA once having been ~2.5 km tall and 0.5 km wide, with a 2 km, bell-shaped zone of mineralisation affecting the intrusion and its surrounding country rock.

Bingham Canyon Mine
The world’s largest open-pit mine in the porphyry copper deposit at Bingham Canyon Utah (credit: Wikipedia)

Porphyry ores are not much for the rock aficionado to shout about and they are characterized by very low grades of ore, the metal-sulfide ore minerals and any gold being barely visible. They are economic because there is a great deal of rock with copper and molybdenum contents often less than 0.5%, and economic gold values less than a part per million (0.03 troy oz t-1). The bulk and the diversity of metals make mining porphyry deposits profitable. The ore minerals occur in tiny cracks that pervade the deposits forming a ‘stockwork’. That is where this style of mineralisation has a link with fracking shales to release their gas content. Stockworks are produced by very high-pressure steam that explosively fractures every cubic metre of the orebody. Crystallisation of sulfides and barren minerals keeps the fractures open until the system runs out of steam and mineralising fluids. Modelling of the thermodynamics associated with porphyry intrusions now suggests that once pressure and temperature stabilise at the requisite levels the hydraulic fracturing becomes self-sustaining (Weis, P. et al. 2012. Porphyry-copper ore shells form at stable pressure-temperature fronts within dynamic fluid plumes. Science, v. 338, p. 1613-1616). The key is the ‘fracking’ and as ‘shells’ with the right conditions migrate through the upper part of the intrusive system groundwater is drawn in to the freshly permeable rock to dissolve, transport and, where chemical conditions permit, to precipitate metals in the cracks. The modelling suggests a fundamental process that extends from plutonic systems, through volcanic edifices, hydrothermal processes in shallower rocks and active geothermal systems that vent to the surface.

Stockwork in copper-molybdenum porphyry deposit in Mexico (credit: Sundance Minerals)
Stockwork in copper-molybdenum porphyry deposit in Mexico (credit: Sundance Minerals)

In many respects the universality of hydraulic fracturing associated with increased heat flow, which itself can affect the crust repeatedly, may be the key to the concept of ‘metallogenic provinces’. These are large areas in which economic mineralisation of many styles but with much the same ‘blend’ of metals seems to have formed again and again during crustal evolution. Such provinces emerged from exploration and mining to present explorationists with the old adage, ‘To find an elephant go to elephant country’. Now there may be a theoretical basis on which new discoveries may be made.

On-line global geological maps

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This item about the OneGeology map portal can now be read at Earth-logs in the Remote Sensing archive for 2013

OneGeology1
Small-scale extract from the OneGeology portal with 1:2 million maps for Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, and at 1:10 million covering surrounding areas (credit:OneGeology portal)

 

Fracking leaks

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Cameron speaking in 2010.
David Cameron speaks (credit: Wikipedia)

The start of 2013 saw a massive puff from the British government for development of shale gas, Premier David Cameron crying ‘Britain must be at the heart of the shale gas revolution’. Fearful of the rapidly growing shift from Britain’s natural-gas self reliance to dependence on the Gulf, Russia and Norway the Conservative-Liberal  Democrat coalition gave the green light for ‘frack drilling’ to restart. This followed a pause following seismicity in the Blackpool area that attended Cuadrilla’s exploratory drilling into the gas-rich Carboniferous Bowland Shale thereabouts. There is also a nice sweetener for the new industry in the form of tax breaks.

English: Boris Johnson holding a model red dou...
Boris Johnson holds a model London red bus (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

London Mayor Boris Johnson, a possible contender for Tory leadership, seems pleased. And perhaps he should be, as the Lib-Con coalition will be tested because the junior partners depend electorally, to some extent, on ‘green’ credentials. The Lib-Dem Energy Minister, Ed Davey, seemingly favours an automatic halt to drilling should there be seismicity greater than 0.5 on the Richter scale; an energy level less than experienced every day in London from its Underground trains. Political commentators have forecast that green issues may exacerbate tensions within the coalition in the second half of its scheduled 5-year term, especially as the electorate seems set to reduce the Liberal Democrat partners to irrelevance in future elections.

Natural gas’s biggest ‘green’ plus is that being a hydrocarbon its burning releases considerably less CO2 than does its coal energy equivalent, the hydrogen content becoming water vapour. Yet the dominant gas is methane, which has a far larger greenhouse effect than the CO2 released by its burning. To avoid that presenting increased atmospheric warming, extracting natural gas needs to avoid leakage. Unfortunately for those bawling lustily about the economic potential of fracking source rocks such as the Bowland Shale, recent aerial surveys over US gas fields will come as a major shock. At the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in early December 2012 methane emissions from two large gas fields in the western US were released (Tollefson, J. 2013. Methane leaks erode green credentials of natural gas. Nature, v. 493, p. 12). They amount to 9% of total production, which would more than offset the climatic ‘benefit’ of using natural gas as a coal alternative.

A shift from coal to natural gas-fuelled power generation would slow down climatic warming, if leakage is kept below the modest level of 3.2% of production. So if the latest measurements are an unavoidable norm for gas fields then natural gas burning in fact increases global warming. Even more telling is that, until the shale ‘fracking revolution’, gas was produced by drilling into permeable reservoir rocks capped by a seal rock – usually a shale. The gas would not have leaked except from the well itself. Fracking, by design, increases the permeability of what would otherwise be a seal rock – hydrocarbon-rich shale – over a large area.

English: Schematic cross-section of the subsur...
Schematic cross-section illustrating types of natural gas deposits (credit: Wikipedia)

Aerial analyses to check emissions over oil and gas fields, let alone over shale-gas operations, are not widespread. However, the technology is not new. Where emissions are strictly enforced in populated areas, as over oil terminals and refineries, overflights to sample the air have been routine for several decades. Little mention is made of such precautionary measures in the promotion of fracking.

Another point is that as well as often being far from habitations, US shale-gas operations are generally into simple stratigraphy and structure. The Lower Carboniferous Bowland Shale now being touted as fuel for Britain’s escape from a descent into economic depression, with its estimated 200 trillion cubic feet of as potential, is intensely faulted and broadly folded, having experienced the Variscan orogeny at the end of the Palaeozoic Era. The complexity and pervasiveness of this brittle deformation is amply shown by geological maps of former coalfields that incorporate subsurface information from mine workings. The Bowland Shale lies below the Upper Carboniferous Coal Measures, many of the likely targets for fracking have never been subject to intensive underground mining simply because the Coal Measures were eroded away tens of million years ago. Consequently the degree to which many fracking targets may be riven by surface-breaking faults and fracture zones is not and possibly never will be known in the detail needed to assess widespread methane leakage.

Sometime in early 2013, the British Geological Survey is set to release estimates of the Bowland Shale gas reserves, in which its detailed mapping archives will have played the major role. That report will bear detailed scrutiny as regards the degree to which it also assesses potential leakage.

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Publishing: is it worth the effort?

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A measure of the esteem in which a peer-reviewed paper is held is supposedly the number of times to which it is referred in other papers. Of course, the older a paper is the more chance that such citations will have built up; but the annual rate of citation is likely to fizzle out over time. Papers that create a frisson of initial excitement and command enduring citation are few and far between: they probably launched a new line of inquiry.

It is instructive to try to nail Alfred Wegener’s influence in tectonics using the Web of Science, which ought to have been pretty high. Superficially, he had none and is remembered through that arm of Thomson Reuters for six papers: four on atmospheric physics – his speciality; one on lunar craters and a sixth on the patterns of cracking seen on rotten wood. These give him a mere 20 citations. Wegener’s posthumous problem was that Die Entstehung der Kontinente first appeared in the fourth issue of Geologische Rundshau in 1912, and seemingly the Web of Science doesn’t have that journal in its archives of a century ago. Later, extended editions appeared in book format which were not peer reviewed (most geoscientists would not touch his ideas with a barge pole until long after his death in 1930), and are therefore outside the academic pale. The key to a plausible mechanism for continental drift – symmetrical magnetic striping above ocean basins – was first described by Fred Vine and Drummond Matthews in an issue of Nature in 1963. In 50 years their work, ranking with discovering the structure of DNA, has accumulated 709 citations; i.e. 38.5 citations per year on average, which is not much for fuelling a revolution.

Photograph of Alfred Wegener, the scientist
Alfred Wegener, the unsung hero of continental drift(credit: Wikipedia)

Of course, citation is not the same as the frequency at which a paper is read. It is no secret that a not inconsiderable number of papers that appear in published reference lists haven’t been read by the authors who cite them. They are there by proxy, and you will probably find them in the bibliography of later papers that those same authors have cited. There is perhaps a certain kudos in such proxy citations, for it may be that the cited paper has achieved the equivalent of canonical status in the field.

Citation frequency is something of a lottery: language of publication; discipline (since 1953 Crick and Watson achieved three times Vine and Matthews’s average citations); date of publication (E. Komatsu of the University of Texas at Austin has already had 1939 citations for his February 2011 paper ‘Seven-Year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe Observations: Cosmological Interpretations’ published in a supplement to the Astrophysical Journal; nine times the rate of Crick and Watson, but the paper is about the origin of everything)

Interestingly, the December 2012 issue of Geology presents stats on the most cited papers that it has published since 2000 (Cowie, P.A. 2012. Highly cited Geology papers (2000-2010) – What were they and who wrote them? Geology, v.  40, p. 1147-1148). Geology is among the highest ranking journals in the geoscience field, and had an impact factor of 4.8 over the last 5 years. A journal’s impact factor is the number of times all articles published in a 2-year period were cited in all indexed journals in the year following them, divided by the total number of articles published in the two years by the assessed journal. So, papers published in Geology between2007 and 2011 were cited on average 4.8 times in the year following publication. This journal is a useful source of citation statistics as it covers the full range of geoscience and all papers are limited to 4 printed pages, thereby forcing authors to be concise and clear in their writing and illustration. Consequently it is popular, which, incidentally, may explain its high impact factor.

Of the 33 papers cited most between 2000 and 2010, 14 are on topics relating to Tibet and China. There are 3 on oceanography; 3 on paleontology and extinctions; 6 on palaeoclimatology; 10 on tectonics and 10 on magmatism (3 of which were about rare adakites formed by partial melting of subducted oceanic crust). I haven’t read all of the papers, and the stats on topics may tell us very little, but I would bet that papers about geology in high-population emerging countries – China, India and Brazil – are met gleefully by rapidly growing communities of eager young geoscientists. It may even be worth a flutter on adakites as the ‘next big thing’ in petrogenesis. Mind you, it looks like I am not likely to be the best punter for hot papers, as out of the 33 ‘top-3’ papers since 2000, only 6 made it into Earth Pages, and of those only one between 2004-2010.

The digest goes on to show that year-by-year as many as 10 % of papers in Geology are not cited at all, up to 70% are cited between 1 and 5 times per year, while less than 10% get 10 or more citations in a year. Oddly, the author suggests that a dip in citations of Geology papers in recent years may reflect the launch of Nature Geoscience in 2008. Yet glossy as that new addition to the Nature stable might be, it has become something of a desert for papers on geology. Then there is evidence for both ‘vintage’ and ‘just-about-drinkable’ years  in Geology citations: the ‘top ten’ papers in 2001, 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2010 ranged from 10-15 citations for the tenth to 20-25 for the ‘hottest’ paper, while in 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2007 and 2009 the most cited papers stood well above the rest at 32 to 55 citations per year. But that may just reflect the uneven pace at which well-received and provocative work emerges.

So, it begins to seem, from Geology at least, that for most geoscience authors publishing isn’t going to raise much hope as far as jobs or promotions are concerned. Yet if results are not published funding agencies may become fractious about your next grant application, and of course, university science departments puff themselves with annual publication rates (though rarely citation records, which as far as geosciences goes could be a wise move). But it is a matter of academic duty to publish for the record; even if a paper fills just one tiny niche the cumulative effect of publically available knowledge does eventually result in breaks through – one never knows… It could be a salutary lesson should publishers release data on hits for on-line PDFs of papers, as that would give some indication of how many readers individual papers have, but as for a ‘like this’ button or a means of star rating I think we have to venture into the deeper recesses of academic conservatism one small step at a time.

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A glimpse of the deep Moon

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Charting the variation in gravitational potential across a planet provides a measure of the distribution of mass beneath its surface. That depends on both the planet’s actual shape and on internal variations in rock density. The Earth’s gravity has been mapped with varying degrees of precision, depending on sample spacing, by surface measurements using gravimeters. Doing gravity surveys from space cannot be so direct, however. One ingenious approach for the gravitational field over the oceans is to measure the mean height of the ocean surface using radar beams from a satellite. Since this is affected by variations in the gravitational field, partly due to bathymetry and partly because of varying density beneath the ocean floor, removing the calculable bathymetric effect leaves a gravitational signal from the underling lithosphere and deeper mantle. The first satellite to illuminate the Earth with radar microwaves, Seasat, gradually built up such a gravitational map of the deep Earth over a period of 105 days in 1978, which was followed up by other satellites such as the ERS series and Topex-Poseidon.

GRAIL lunar probes
The GRAIL satellites in lunar orbit (credit: Wikipedia)

It is not so easy to map gravity precisely above a solid planetary surface, but through the GRACE experiment this can be done by measuring very precisely the distance between a pair of satellites that follow the same orbit. As the gravitational field changes so too does the separation between the tandem of satellites; an increase in gravity pulls the satellites closer together and vive versa. GRACE has provided some fascinating data, such as estimates of the withdrawal of groundwater from large sedimentary basins and shrinkage of ice caps. However, GRACE is limited in its resolution of gravitational anomalies by the fact that Earth has an atmosphere above which such tandems must be parked in orbit to avoid burning up. The higher the orbit, the more degraded is the resolution. This effect is much less for Mars and non-existent for the Moon.

Gravity field of the moon as measured by NASA's GRAIL mission. The far side of the moon is at the centre, whereas the nearside (as viewed from Earth) is at either side. (credit: NASA/ARC/MIT)
Gravity field of the moon as measured by NASA’s GRAIL mission. The far side of the moon is at the centre, whereas the nearside (as viewed from Earth) is at either side. (credit: NASA/ARC/MIT)

A sister experiment to GRACE has been orbiting the Moon since September 2011: the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL). First the tandem orbited at 55 km, then 22 and for a brief period 11 km, before running out of thruster fuel on 17 December 2012 and crashing into the lunar surface. Results from the highest orbit resolve lunar gravity to 13 km cells, recently reported on-line in three papers (Zuber, M.T. and 16 others 2012. Gravity field of the Moon from the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) Mission. Science, doi 10.1126/science.1231507; Wieczorek, M.A. and 15 others 2012. The crust of the Moon as seen by GRAIL. Science, doi 10.1126/science.1231530; Andrews-Hanna, J.C. and 18 others 2012. Ancient igneous intrusions and early expansion of the Moon revealed by GRAIL gravity gradiometry. Science, doi 10.1126/science.1231753). From crater gravitational signatures due to variations in surface topography it seems that the early bombardment of the lunar surface far exceeded previous assumptions. Impact effects dominate the GRAIL data at this resolution, but 2% of the information relates to structures hidden at depth.

500 km linear anomaly in the Moon's far-side gravitational field. (credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/CSM)
500 km linear anomaly in the Moon’s far-side gravitational field. (credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/CSM)

There are linear gravity anomalies extending over hundreds of kilometres, which may be huge igneous intrusions in the form of dykes; perhaps reflections of early influences of early extensional tectonics in the Moons lithosphere. Estimates point to this having been due to an up to 5 km increase in the lunar radius, probably as a result of thermal changes. The dominant feature of the lunar surface is not the near-side flat basaltic maria, visually prominent as they are, but the far more rugged lunar highlands which stand far higher because of the lower density of their constituent feldspar-rich anorthosites. GRAIL permitted a bulk estimate of the density of highland crust that turned out to be substantially lower, at 2550 kg m-3 – compared with 2600-2700 for granite and 2800-3000 for basalt – than originally estimated from samples returned by the Apollo mission. This forces a reassessment of the thickness of highland crust from 50-60 km to between 34 and 43 km, with a near-surface layer that has a porosity of around 12%, probably resulting from its awful battering. A thinner highland crust than previously assumed presents a bulk geochemical picture that need not be more enriched in ‘refractory’  elements, such as aluminium and calcium, than is the Earth.

Such unanticipated results from the low-resolution mode of the GRAIL experiment have its science team almost salivating at prospects from the sharper ‘pictures’ that will arise from the lower altitude orbits.

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The Ediacaran fossils: a big surprise

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English: Photograph showing the 'golden spike'...
Edicara sandstones in the Flinders Ranges of  South Australia (credit: Wikipedia).

The first macroscopic life forms were the enigmatic bag-like and quilted fossils in sedimentary rocks dating back to 635 Ma in Australia, eastern Canada and NW Europe. They are grouped as the Ediacaran Fauna named after the Ediacara Hills in South Australia where they are most common and diverse. Generally they are not body fossils but impressions of soft-bodied organisms, often in sandstones rather than muds. Some are believed to be animals that absorbed nutrients through their skin, whereas others are subjects of speculation. One thing seems clear; these first metazoans arose because of some kind of trigger provided by the global glacial conditions that preceded their appearance. It has always been assumed that, whatever they were, Ediacaran organisms lived on the sea floor, probably in shallow water. New sedimentological evidence found in the type locality by Gregory Retallack of the University of Oregon seems set to force a complete rethink about these hugely important life forms (Retallack, G.J 2012. Ediacaran life on land. Nature (online), doi:10.1038/nature11777). So momentous are his conclusions that they form the subject of a Nature editorial in the 13 December 2012 issue.

Retallack, a specialist on ancient soils of the Precambrian, examined reddish facies of the Ediacara Member of the Rawnsley Quartzite of South Australia, whose previous interpretation have a somewhat odd background. Originally regarded as non-marine, before their fossils were discovered, when traces of jellyfish-like organisms turned up this view was reversed to marine, the red coloration being ascribed to deep Cretaceous weathering. A range of features, such as clasts of red facies in grey Ediacaran rocks, the presence of feldspar in the red facies – unlikely to have survived deep weathering – bedding surfaces with textures very like those formed by subaerial biofilms, and desiccation cracks, suggest to Retallack that the red facies represents palaeosols in the sedimentary sequence. Moreover, some features indicate a land surface prone to freezing from time to time. The key observation is that this facies contains Ediacaran trace fossils representing many of the forms previously regarded as marine animals of some kind, including Spriggina, Dickinsonia and Charnia  on which most palaeontologists would bet good money that they were animals, albeit enigmatic ones.

English: Cropped and digitally remastered vers...
Specimen of Edicaran Dickinsonia (credit: Wikipedia)

If Retallack’s sedimentological observations are confirmed then organisms found in the palaeosols cannot have been animals but perhaps akin to lichens or colonial microbes, and survived freezing conditions. As they occur in other facies more likely to be subaqueous, then they were ‘at home’ in a variety of ecosystems. As the Nature editorial reminds us, from the near-certainty that early macroscopic life was marine there is a chance that views will have to revert to a terrestrial emergence first suggested in the 1950s by Jane Grey. Uncomfortable times lie ahead for the palaeontological world.

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Grand Canyon now the Grand Old Canyon?

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Grand Canyon in Winter
Grand Canyon in Winter (credit: Wikipedia)

Among the best known and certainly the most visited topographic feature on the planet, the Grand Canyon resulted from erosion by the Colorado River keeping pace with uplift of the south-central United States. It is the archetype for what is known as antecedent drainage. Since that uplift is still going on, albeit slowly, the Grand Canyon has been assumed to be a relative young landform. By dating the first appearance of debris from the eastern end of the canyon in sediments at its western limit geomorphologists estimated that incision began around 6 Ma ago. Yet a range of other observations present puzzling contradictions. One means of settling the issue is to somehow to date the uplift radiometrically.

A long-used technique is to determine ‘cooling ages’ of crustal rocks exposed by uplift and erosion, exploiting the way in which rock temperature determines whether or not products of radioactive decay cab be preserved intact. One method uses the tracks of defects produced by electrons or helium nuclei from radioactive decay as they pass through various minerals that incorporate high amounts of elements such as uranium. Above a certain temperature the fission tracks anneal and disappear quickly, while below it they accumulate over time. Quantifying that build-up allows the date of cooling below the threshold temperature to be estimated. Similarly, gases produced by radioactive decay of some radioactive isotopes, such as argon from the decay of 40K or helium from uranium and thorium isotopes, can only stay in their host mineral if it remains cooler than a narrow range of temperatures. As rock rises towards the Earth’s surface, it starts out hot at depth but cools by conduction as it get closer to the surface. For the 1.8 km of uplift of the Grand Canyon and the relatively cool nature of the underlying crust, neither the fission-track nor the  40Ar/39Ar cooling-age methods give meaningful results. However, minerals lose helium at temperatures above about 70°C, so a method based on helium accumulation from uranium and thorium isotope decay is a possible means of assessing uplift timing. But there have been plenty of snags to overcome to make this approach reliable. In the case of the Grand Canyon analytical quality and careful sample collection has given a credible result (Flowers, R.M. & Farley, K.A. 2012. Apatite 4He/3He and (U-Th)He evidence for an ancient Grand Canyon. Science , doi 10.1126/science.1229390)

Flowers and Farley from the University of Colorado at Boulder and the California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, respectively, produced a result that completely overturns previous conceptions. The western end of the Canyon had been incised to within a few hundred metres of modern depths by 70 Ma ago; more than ten times earlier than previously thought. The eastern end has a more complex history that reveals cooling events in the Neogene as well as an end-Cretaceous initiation of uplift and erosion. Their data are consistent with early incision of the Grand Canyon by a Cretaceous river flowing eastward from the Western Cordillera, with a reversal of flow in the late-Tertiary as uplift of the Colorado Plateau began and western mountains subsided. Whether or not this fits with Cretaceous and later geological history of the SW US, is beyond my ken, but you can bet there will be a storm of comment from US geomorphologists once the paper appears in the print issue of Science.

Toba ash and calibrating the Pleistocene record

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Landsat image of Lake Toba, the largest volcan...
Landsat image of the Lake Toba caldera, Sumatra (credit: Wikipedia)

The largest volcanic catastrophe during the evolution of humans formed the huge caldera at Lake Toba near the Equator in Sumatra about 70 thousand years ago. Explosive action erupted 2800 cubic kilometres of magma, of which 800 km3 was deposited as thick ash across most of South Asia and the northern Indian Ocean. Sulfates derived from the gas emissions by Toba form clear ‘spikes’ in ice cores from both Greenland and Antarctica. Its effects were global through the mixing of sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere of both hemispheres, encouraged by its position close to the Equator. By reflecting incoming solar energy the aerosols resulted in a century-long 10°C fall in temperature over the Greenland ice cap. Such global cooling almost certainly affected anatomically modern humans, but it is possible that in South Asia Toba had an even more devastating effect.

Jwalapuram
The Toba ash at the Jwalapuram excavations in South India(Photo credit: Sanjay P. K. via Flickr)

At several sites in the Indian state of Tamil Nadu and in Malaysia Toba ash has buried artifacts that arguably may have been made by the earliest modern emigrants from Africa. Immediately above the ash are yet more tools that suggest humans did survive the eruption. Palaeoanthropologists have argued that the stress of Toba’s environmental effects on all hominins living at the time may have resulted in population crashes from which only the fittest individuals emerged. Major evolutionary changes have been ascribed to ‘bottlenecks’ of that kind to result in changes in human behaviour detectable from the archaeological record, such as the creation of completely new kinds of tools, art and language.  However, recent finds in Africa suggest that many such shifts are much older than Toba.

Perhaps Toba’s greatest contribution to palaeoanthropology is that it is an easily recognised event in the geological record, but compared with its sulfate spike in the Greenland ice core at ~71 ka the existing radiometric dates have uncertainties of several thousand years. Using the latest 40Ar/39Ar dating methods on fresh crystals of sanidine (volcanic K-feldspar) from new excavations in Malaysia these uncertainties have been reduced significantly (Storey, M. et al. 2012. Astronomically calibrated 40Ar/39Ar age for the Toba supereruption and global synchronization of late Quaternary records. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, v. 109, p. 19684-18688 ). The sulfate peak and the ash can now be attributed to an age of 73.88 ± 0.32 ka; better than a golden spike in Late Pleistocene stratigraphy. The ice-cores have a check on chronology just beyond the limit of counting annual layering, as do ocean sediment cores for a time older than 14C can ever achieve. Toba now links too with events recorded by the precise U-Th series dating of cave deposits

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Probing the Earth’s mantle using noise

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sesmic tomography
Artistic impression of a global seismic tomogram – beneath Mercator projection – dividing the mantle into ‘warm’ and ‘cool’ regions (Credit: Cornell University Geology Department – http://www.geo.cornell.edu/geology/classes/Geo101/graphics/s12fsl.jpg)

It goes without saying that it is difficult to sample the mantle. The only direct samples are inclusions found in igneous rocks that formed by partial melting at depth so that the magma incorporated fragments of mantle rock as it rose, or where tectonics has shoved once very deep blocks to the surface. Even if such samples were not contaminated in some way, they are isolated from any context. For 20 years geophysicists have been analysing seismograms from many stations across the globe for every digitally recordable earthquake to use in a form of depth sounding. This seismic tomography assesses variations in the speed of body (P and S) waves according to the path that they travelled through the Earth.

Unusually high speeds at a particular depth suggests more rigid rock and thus cooler temperatures whereas hotter materials slow down body waves. The result is images of deep structure in vertical 2-D slices, but the quality of such sections depends, ironically, on plate tectonics. Earthquakes, by definition mainly occur at plate boundaries, which are lines at the surface. Such a one-dimensional source for seismic tomograms inevitably leaves the bulk of the mantle as a blur. But there are more ways of killing a cat than drowning it in melted butter. All kinds of processes unconnected with tectonics, such as ocean waves hitting the shore and interfering with one another across the ocean basins, plus changes in atmospheric pressure especially associated with storms, also create waves similar in kind to seismic ones that pass through the solid Earth.

Such aseismic energy produces the background noise seen on any seismogram. Even though this noise is way below the energy and amplitude associated with earthquakes, it is continuous and all pervading: the cumulative energy. Given highly sensitive modern detectors and sophisticated processing much the same kind of depth sounding is possible using micro-seismic noise, but for the entire planet and at high resolution. Rather than imaging speed variations this approach can pick up reflections from physical boundaries in the solid Earth. Surface micro-seismic waves exactly the same as Rayleigh and Love waves from earthquakes have already been used to analyse the Mohorovičić discontinuity between crust and upper mantle as well as features in the continental crust; indeed the potential of noise was recognized in the 1960s. But the deep mantle and core are the principle targets, being far out of reach of experimental seismic surveys using artificial energy input. It seems they are now accessible using body-wave noise (Poli, P. et al. 2012. Body-wave imaging of Earth’s mantle discontinuities from ambient seismic noise. Science, v. 338, p. 1063-1065).

Poli and colleagues from the University of Grenoble, France and Finland used a temporary network of 42 seismometers laid out in Arctic Finland to pick up noise, and sophisticated signal processing to separate surface waves from body waves. Their experiment resolved two major mantle discontinuities at ~410 and 660 km depth that define a transition zone between the upper and lower mantle, where the dominant mineral of the upper mantle – olivine – changes its molecular state to a more closely packed configuration akin to that of the mineral perovskite that is thought to characterize the lower mantle. Moreover, they were able to demonstrate that the 2-step shift to perovskite occupies depth changes of about 10-15 km.

Applying the method elsewhere doesn’t need a flurry of new closely-spaced seismic networks. Data are already available from arrays that aimed at conventional seismic tomography, such as USArray that deploys  400 portable stations in area-by-area steps across the United States (http://earth-pages.co.uk/2009/11/01/the-march-of-the-seismometers/)

It is early days, but micro-seismic noise seems very like the dreams of planetary probing foreseen by several science fiction writers, such as Larry Niven who envisaged ‘deep radar’ being deployed for exploration by his piratical hero Louis Wu. Trouble is, radar of that kind would need a stupendous power source and would probably fry any living beings unwise enough to use it. Noise may be a free lunch to the well-equipped geophysicist of the future.

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  • Prieto, G.A. 2012. Imaging the deep Earth. Science (Perspectives), v. 338, p. 1037-1038.

Breakthrough in human tools: the scene shifts to Africa

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A means of assessing the cognitive abilities of hominins is through the objects that they created, whether tools or artefacts with apparent symbolic significance. The latter include pigments, coloured shells, beads, artwork or even deliberately parallel and crossing lines gouged on otherwise innocuous rock. Undoubtedly valuable to their creators, possibly treasured and passed on until lost or broken – most are fragile – symbolic artefacts are rare. So although they shout ‘thoughtful’, their age tells us little about when such a capacity first arose. Many archaeologists and palaeoanthropologists assert that creating and/or manipulating symbols may signify a link with being able to speak. Tools are a lot easier to find, probably as discards and lost items, and a well-described and understood sequence of forms and sometimes uses has been established, which extends as far back as perhaps 3 Ma – before the genus Homo appeared.

In terms of their meaning in terms of the consciousness of their makers and users, there are possibly four major recognisable steps. Chimpanzees and some birds can learn to pick up natural objects, such as stones and twigs, and use them: some bands of chimps even retain the knowledge. A step beyond that is preparing a natural object for use, as with breaking a pebble to create a cutting edge: something not exclusively human because it is possible that pre-human hominins created the earliest such Oldowan tools. Being able to visualise hidden potential inside something natural is altogether more advanced, and is represented by the iconic bi-face or Acheulean ‘hand-axe’. Its earliest makers, H. ergaster and erectus, literally brought such objects to light by skilfully knapping away the outer parts of substantial lumps of suitable rock. The knowledge endured for more than a million years but was eventually added to and superseded by a range of more delicate and specific stone tools, but more sophisticated tools represented the same ‘liberation’ of a simple idea held in rock. The fourth general cognitive leap was to add several resources together as composite tools, and arguably we have not long emerged from that phase with the creation of composite tools that help us design and make other tools: a machine-tool culture.

English: Backed edge bladelet Español: Hojita ...
Example of a microlith (credit: Wikipedia)

It is that penultimate step-up in consciousness that has been engaging archaeologists since they first realised that some small, sharp chips of stone were not waste but deliberately crafted for combination with wood or bone. Such ‘microliths’ have been found in intact arrows and sickles of the Meso- and Neolithic, but their range steadily goes back in time with more research. Unmistakeable microliths have now been discovered at the South African coastal site at Pinnacle Point, in an occupation layer that is 71 ka old (Brown, K.S. and 8 others 2012. An early and enduring advanced technology originating 71, 000 years ago in South Africa. Nature, v. 491, p. 590-593).

The Pinnacle Point technology was indeed sophisticated, microlith manufacture requiring fire treatment as well as choice of rock and careful shaping and sharpening. As well as extending the microlith culture back so far the team of South African, US, Australian and Greek archaeologists compared them with 28 later African tool kits. The designs have barely changed from 71 ka to those of the last few hundred years. Kyle Brown and colleagues show that the industrial method endured, thereby laying to rest the somewhat reactionary notion that the methods were lost again and again in Africa after separate inventions and were only taken up decisively by the supposed ‘advanced’ anatomically modern humans who colonised Europe…

It is difficult to see how the Pinnacle Point microliths could have been useful, unless hafted in arrows or throwing sticks – maybe even saws and sickles? Crucially, they predate larger blade-tools that could have been hafted to form spears. The focus must now shift to the Zambian scene where possible microliths are reported at two 250 ka sites. If confirmed, they would link the decisive fourth cognitive step towards humanity with the very origin of fully modern humans, rather than a much later, non-African dawning of ‘smarts’ along with language, advanced art and much else in the chilly caves of southern Europe.

Of all human-colonised continents Africa lags far behind the rest as regards spread and density of archaeological digs. Only the ‘famous’ sites attract resources for investigation. Imagine what might emerge once there are more local people with research skills, equipment and transport; and, dare I say it, more independence of action and the attendant confidence in their ability.

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A glimpse of the Hadean

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There is something deeply unsatisfying, even untidy, about a geoscientific history from which the first half billion years is more or less a blank. Every likely stone has been turned and every isotope hurled as a curve-ball through a mass spectrometer in the quest for either direct evidence of Hadean events or an acrid whiff that lingers in later matter. All, that is, except for one…

Formed in a proposed supernova that likely helped trigger formation of the Sun and Solar System, 150Gd quickly decayed to produce 146Sm, which itself had a half-life of about 68 Ma. That is too short for any significant trace of that radioactive rare-earth element to remain in terrestrial rocks, but its daughter isotope 142Nd bears witness to its former existence. Checking the proportion of 142Nd against the heavier 144Nd is a means of assessing isotopic fractionation according to atomic mass between a solid source of a magma, and between residual magma and solids that crystallised from it.

A popular and well-supported view of the Hadean is that shortly after accretion of the Earth a stupendous impact left a deep ‘ocean’ of magma and flung off mass that produced the Moon. Solidification of that ocean, which would have involved denser minerals sinking and lighter ones rising to higher levels, has been suggested to have resulted in differentiation of the mantle into two portions, one enriched, the other depleted; an event on which the entire later geochemical history of our planet has depended. Should either part of the mantle melt again, the igneous rocks that would result should carry a neodymium isotope signature of one or the other. Little sign of either emerges from studies of igneous rocks younger than 2.5 Ga, but older rocks from Greenland that go back to 3.8 Ga demonstrate that almost all of them melted from the Hadean depleted mantle. Without rocks carrying 142Nd/144Nd ratios signifying the other side of the more ancient mantle division, an enriched source, the grand idea was flawed. But this one-sidedness appears now to have been balanced by other Archaean igneous rocks (Rizo, H. et al. 2012. The elusive Hadean enriched reservoir revealed by 142Nd deficits in Isua Archaean rocks. Nature, v. 491, p. 96-100).

3.8 billion year-old Amitsoq gneisses, West Greenland (Image credit: Stephen Moorbath, via Royal Society)

The analysed rocks are interesting for another reason, for they are 3.4 Ga old vertical sheets of basalt or dykes that cut through the more ancient west Greenland crust. They are the first evidence of a brittle crust that cracked under tension to be followed by mantle-derived magma. Some members of the Ameralik dyke swarm show just the isotopic signature predicted for the enriched member of the postulated fundamental mantle division. However, for some yet to be recognised reason, few post-Archaean rocks show any sign of widespread mantle heterogeneity. Such matters could be addressed with any confidence only after mass spectrometry allowed precise discrimination between isotopes of a whole variety of both common and rare elements. That was not so long ago, so a rich trove of future revelations can be anticipated.

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Batter your planet

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K/T extinction event theory. An artist's depic...
Artist’s depiction of the asteroid impact 65 million years ago that caused the K-T mass extinction. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Just in time for the festive season I have been sent the URL for an on-line impact simulator written by a team from Imperial College London and the University of Arizona (Collins, G.S. et al. 2005. Earth Impact Effects Program: A Web-based computer program for calculating the regional environmental consequences of a meteoroid impact on Earth. Meteoritics and Planetary Science, v. 40, p. 817–840), with a web presence designed at Purdue University, Indiana. ImpactEarth (http://www.purdue.edu/impactearth/) has been around for two years and has a scientifically pleasing level of precision, thanks to the authors, Gareth Collins, Jay Melosh and Robert Marcus.

The fact that the target shown by the accompanying animation and other graphics seems to be the Washington-New York megalopolis may be a cause for some concern for US readers, especially the Department of Homeland Security, National Security Agency and CIA. They can rest easy, however, as this seems to be a matter of artistic license: the choice of parameters allows for ocean strikes and targets of sedimentary or crystalline rocks. Others are impactor diameter and density, impact angle and speed, plus distance from ground zero. An element of whimsy allows the casual user to choose inbound humpback whales, school buses and the Empire State Building as well as more astronomically likely scenarios.

There are a number of missing parameters such as direction relative to Earth’s rotation, latitude and the likely affect of an ice-cap strike, and no mention in the results of the electromagnetic burst from atmospheric compression on entry – the Diesel effect. However, the thermal effects on bystanders, buildings and vegetation at the ‘viewpoint’ personalise the experience to some extent. It is the detail about crater dimensions and evolution, lithospheric melting and what might happen to the Earth’s axial tilt and day length that the wealth of computations produce surprises. It is not easy to destroy our planet: using a body with a density of 3000 kg m-3 and the diameter of Asia causes no significant melting or changes in axial tilt at speeds less than 12 km s-1, but does change the length of the day by up to 113 hours. This is because the power of impacts and therefore the work done by them is proportional to the square of the speed. Mind you, nothing is left standing as the seismic effect has a Richter Magnitude of more than 15! Yet, curiously, no atmospheric or thermal radiation effects are noted.

Have fun.

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Hominin round-up

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Our tenacious companions.

Male human head louse, Pediculus humanus capit...
Male human head louse, Pediculus humanus capitis (credit: Wikipedia)

Until recently humans and lice were inseparable and the same goes for all primates, and nearly all mammals. However, unlike fleas, which happily will suck any blood that is going provided it is easily tapped, lice are tailored to their hosts. Should a baboon louse, for instance, get into your short and curlies it will almost certainly die. In any case, again unlike fleas, the louse cannot leap: they spread through intimate contact. The human head louse spreads especially well among nursery- and infant-school children, as any parent knows, because lessons often involve them literally getting their heads together. Less well known is that Pediculus humanus eschew soiled or greasy hair and it is the well-scrubbed kids who suffer and spread ‘beasts on the head’. Conversely, the clothes louse that carries typhus and other infections is deterred by regular laundry and ironing. And then there is the  Continue reading “Hominin round-up” →

Short fuse on clathrate bomb?

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Structure of a gas hydrate (methane clathrate)...
Gas hydrate (methane clathrate) block embedded in seabed sediment (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The biggest tsunami to affect inhabitants of Britain, mentioned in the earlier post Landslides and multiple dangers, emanated from the Storegga Slide in the northern North Sea west of Norway. That submarine debris flow was probably launched by gas hydrates beneath the sea bed breaking down to release methane thereby destabilising soft sediments on the continental slope. Similar slides were implicated in breaking Europe-America communications in the 20th century, such as the Grand Banks Slide of 1929 that severed submarine cables up to 600 km from the source of the slide. Even now, much Internet traffic is carried across oceans along optic-fibre cables, breakages disrupting and slowing services. A more mysterious facet of clathrate breakdown is its possible implication in unexplained and sudden losses of ships. When gas escapes to the surface, the net density of seawater decreases, the more so as the proportion of bubbles increases. Ship design and cargo loading rests on an assumed water density range from fresh to salt water and for different temperatures at high and low latitudes.

Gulf stream map
Gulf stream map (credit: Wikipedia)

The Atlantic seaboard of the USA hosts some of the best-studied accumulations of clathrates in the top 100-300 m of seabed sediments. Since their discovery these ‘cage complexes’ of mainly methane and carbon dioxide trapped within molecules of water ice have been studied in detail. Importantly, the temperatures at which they form and the range over which they remain stable depend on pressure and therefore depth below the sea surface. At atmospheric pressure solid methane hydrate is unstable at any likely temperature and requires -20°C to form at a pressure equivalent to 200 m water depth. Yet is stable at temperatures up to 10°C 500 m down and 20°C at a depth of 2 km. Modern sea water cools to around 0°C at depths greater than 1.5 km, so gas hydrates can form virtually anywhere that there is a source of methane or CO2 in seafloor sediment. In the sediments temperature increases sharply with depth beneath the seabed due to geothermal heat flow thereby limiting the clathrate stability zone to the top few hundred metres.

Two factors may lead to clathrate instability: falling sea level and sea-floor pressure or rising sea-floor temperature. Many gas-hydrate deposits, especially on the continental shelf and continental edge are likely to be close to their stability limits, hence the worries about destabilisation should global warming penetrate through the water column. The western North Atlantic is an area of especial concern because the Gulf Stream flows northward from the Caribbean to pass close to the US seaboard off the Carolinas: that massive flow of tropical warm water has been increasing during the last 5 thousand years so that its thermal effects are shifting westwards.

Geophysicists Benjamin Phrampus and Matthew Hornbach of the Southern Methodist University in Dallas, Texas have used thermal modelling to predict that gas-hydrate instability is imminent across 10 thousand square kilometres of the Caroline Rise (Phrampus, B.J. & Hornbach, M.J. 2012. Recent changes to the Gulf Stream causing widespread gas hydrate destabilization. Nature, v. 490, p. 527-530). As a test they analysed two seismic reflection profiles across the Carolina Rise, seeking anomalies known as bottom-simulating reflectors that signify free gas in the sediments. These are expected at the base of the gas-hydrate zone and their presence helps assess sediment temperature. At depths less than 1 km the base of the gas-hydrates modelled from the present temperature profile through the overlying seawater lies significantly above the base’s signature on seismic lines. The deeper levels probably formed under cooler conditions than now – probably eight degrees cooler – and may be unstable. If that is correct, the Caroline Rise area seems set to release around 2.5 Gt of methane to add to atmospheric greenhouse warming. The Storegga Slide also lies close to the northern track of the Gulf-Stream – North Atlantic Drift…

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Una parodia della giustizia?

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Damage caused by the L’ Aquila earthquake of 6 April 2009. (credit: Reuters)

Lying above a destructive plate margin, albeit a small one, Italy is prone to earthquakes. Seismometers detect a great many of low magnitude that no one notices and that do no obvious damage to buildings. From 2006 to autumn 2008 the Abruzzo region on the eastern flank of the Appenine mountains of central Italy experienced a background of one low-magnitude tremor every day (Papadopoulos, G.A. et al. 2010. Strong foreshock signal preceding the L’Aquila (Italy) earthquake (Mw 6.3) of 6 April 2009. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, v. 10, p. 19-24). In the following 6 months the rate more than doubled but the epicentres continued to be almost randomly situated. Things changed dramatically in the 10 days following 27 March 2009: the pace increased to twenty times the normal ‘background’ and epicentres clustered directly beneath the regional capital L’ Aquila (population 73 thousand) close to a known fault line. At 3.32 am on 6 April 2009 the Paganica fault failed less than 10 km below L’ Aquila, directing most of the Magnitude 6.3 energy at the town. This was the deadliest earthquake in Italy for three decades; 308 people died 1500 were injured and 40 thousand found themselves homeless. Silvio Berlusconi, not a man to flinch from controversy, commented on German TV about the homeless, ‘Of course, their current lodgings are a bit temporary. But they should see it like a weekend of camping’.

English: Silvio Berlusconi in a meeting with J...
Former Italian President Silvio Berlusconi (credit: Wikipedia)

L’ Aquila has a dismal history of seismic damage, having been devastated before: 7 times since the 14th century. Having grown on a foundation of lake-bed sediments, notorious for amplifying ground movements, the city was clearly in a high-risk status in much the same manner as Mexico City. Shaken several times before and built with no regard to seismicity, much of L’ Aquila’s centuries-old building stock was incapable of resisting the event of 6 April 2009: up to 11 thousand building were damaged, some collapsing completely.

Not only was the earthquake preceded by an increasing pace of foreshocks, but many local people reported strange ‘earth lights’ during the months beforehand (Fidani, C. The earthquake lights (EQL) of the 6 April 2009 Aquila earthquake, in Central Italy.Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, v. 10, p. 967-978). In fact, so many sightings were made that plans have been outlined for a CCTV monitoring network in rural areas.

So, this disaster was not short of signs that all was not well in Abruzzo, in a seismic sense: historical precedent; poor urban siting; foreshocks and oddities that have come to be associated with impending energy release. But was this litany sufficient to predict the place, date, and magnitude of what was coming? Plate tectonics, local structural geology and worldwide seismicity allow geophysicists to assess risk from earthquakes in the same way as hydrologists can outline flood-prone areas: literally on flood plains. Yet there are few if any records of a devastating earthquake having been predicted anywhere with sufficient accuracy to allow evacuation and mitigation of death and injury. That is despite the fact that teams of seismologists in the western US, Japan, Italy and several other well-off countries continually monitor seismic events even with a power many orders of magnitude less than those which kill or injure. Such bodies are faced with a dreadful choice in the face of evidence like that summarised above: warn tens of thousands to evacuate, organise such an exodus in a few days and prepare accommodation for them, or advise that similar seismic escalations rarely lead to massive damage with an estimate of the probability of risk. Both choices are guesswork for there are no rigorous equations that spell ‘doom’ or ‘all clear’ from such data. Earthquakes are not rainstorms or hurricanes, as 250 thousand dead people on the shores of the Indian Ocean bear grim witness.

Despite broad knowledge of the deep uncertainty associated with earthquakes and volcanic eruptions – no longer privy to specialist scientists these days, even in the least developed parts of the world – the Italian authorities saw fit to prosecute six earth scientists and a public official for multiple manslaughter.  Because they provided “inaccurate, incomplete and contradictory” information about what might have been the aftermath of tremors felt ahead of 6 April 2009 earthquake, a regional court sentenced all of them to six years in prison – two years more than even the prosecution demanded – and they are to pay the equivalent of £6.7 million in compensation. This was not a jury verdict, but the decision of a single judge, Marco Billi. No scientist, even one poring over data from the Large Hadron Collider in search of the Higgs boson, would every claim that what they report is perfectly accurate, complete and incontrovertible. The L’Aquila Seven never said they were certain that no earthquake would ensue, and the city’s people were well aware of what risk they faced in much the same way that Neapolitans living on the slopes of Vesuvius know that one day they may be incinerated.

This is a travesty of justice so bizarre that one must look to the famous adage of Roman Law: qui bono? Certainly not the victims and their mourners, and definitely not science because any sensible Italian geophysicist will in future simply play dumb. There is already a huge world wide outcry, not just from outraged scientists.

Added 25 October 2012: The 12 October issue of Science carried a lengthy summary of proceedings early in the trial (Cartlidge, E. 2012. Aftershocks in the courtroom. Science, v. 338, p. 185-188). Read Nature‘s editorial on the L’ Aquila verdict here and further comment.

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