In September 2023 the global network of seismic recorders detected a sequence of low-strength earth movements. It resembled the reverberation of a church bell albeit one that lasted for 9 days. rising and falling in strength every 90 seconds. For months this strange event on seismograms baffled geophysicists. All they could tell was that the signals did not show signs of having been generated by earthquakes; they were too regular. It was, however, possible to triangulate the position of the source of each individual event. There turned out to be only a single location for the seismic ‘campanology’ – at about 73° N on the eastern coast of Greenland, in Dickson Fjord and isolated branch of the enormous Kong Oscar Fjord system. Greenland is not noted for volcanic activity, ruling out the rumblings of a magma chamber that sometimes presages major eruptions. Whatever the cause, there were no human witnesses at the time. The only real clue lay at the start of the signal: the very long-period (VLP) signal was preceded by a sharp, high energy signal that could be matched with some kind of landslide.
View of a side glacier on Dickson Fjord, East Greenland where the tsunami occurred. Left – August 2023; right – 19 September 2023. The rocky peak at top centre on the left fell onto the glacier below to generate a rock-ice slide into the fjord. (Credit: Søren Rysgaard/Danish Army)
On 16 September 2023 the military base for the famous Sirius Dog Sled Patrol on Ella Island was smashed by a tsunami – fortunately it had been closed for the coming winter. When the Danish Navy patrolled Dickson Fjord some days later they found clear signs that the shores opposite the site of a recent colossal rock and ice slide (see images) had been scoured to a height of 200 m. For 5 km either side shoreline scouring averaged 60 m. The initial tsunami was gigantic, yet the fjord was able to contain its worst effects because the outlet to the rest of the system was at right angles to its trend. Some energy obviously was released to reach Ella Island near the mouth of the system to destroy the Danish Army post. The bizarre seismic signal was probably a result of the displaced water sloshing around in the fjord to dissipate the enormous energy released by the collapse of a mountain peak and a substantial amount of a valley glacier. Such behaviour is known as a seiche. Topographic analysis of Dickson Fjord enabled the researchers to calculate its resonant frequency: at 11 millihertz it matched that of the fluctuating seismic signal. (Svennevig, K. and 67 others 2024. A rockslide-generated tsunami in a Greenland fjord rang Earth for 9 days. Science, v. 385, p. 1196-1205; DOI: 10.1126/science.adm9247).
Valley glaciers in Greenland bolster their rocky flanks against collapse. With climatic warming being much faster there than for the rest of the world, its almost innumerable valley glaciers are shrinking. Yet they have been eroding the crust for tens of thousand years. The fjords that they occupied at the height of the last glacial maximum have very steep sides. Likewise, the remaining glaciers have carved U-shaped valleys. So when the glaciers retreat their exposed flanks become gravitationally unstable. Despite the fact that much of Greenland is underpinned by very hard crystalline rocks, that presents a major hazard for water craft. East Greenland’s spectacular scenery draws many tourist cruisers and Innuit fishing boats each summer. Moreover, removal of the ice load allows elastic strain that had built up in the upper crust to be released along joint systems that further weaken resistance to collapse.
A great deal of publicity has been given to the rapid melting of the huge ice sheet that covers most of Greenland. That is currently the biggest contributor to sea-level rise: a few millimetres per year. The Dickson Fjord event highlights the potential deadly threat of deglaciation, although the extremely complex nature of most of its fjord systems may prevent regional tsunamis from escaping their damping effect. Bu there are increasing dangers from the largest, more open fjords, such as Scoresby Sund, which conceivably might blurt catastrophic tsunamis towards Iceland, Svalbard and the west coast of Norway. Even small ones could wreak havoc on wildlife, such as seal and walrus nurseries.
Curiously, two weeks after my previous post about Stonehenge, a wider geochemical study of the Devonian sandstones and a number of Neolithic megaliths in Orkney seems to have ruled out the Stonehenge Altar Stone having been transported from there (Bevins, R.E. et al. 2024. Was the Stonehenge Altar Stone from Orkney? Investigating the mineralogy and geochemistry of Orcadian Old Red sandstones and Neolithic circle monuments. Journal of Archaeological Science: Reports, v. 58, article 104738; DOI: 10.1016/j.jasrep.2024.104738). Since two of the authors of Clarke et al. (2024) were involved in the newly published study, it is puzzling at first sight why no mention was made in that paper of the newer results. The fact that the topic is, arguably, the most famous prehistoric site in the world may have generated a visceral need for getting an academic scoop, only for it to be dampened a fortnight later. In other words, was there too much of a rush?
The manuscript for Clarke et al. (2024) was received by Nature in December 2023 and accepted for publication on 3 June 2024; a six-month turnaround and plenty of time for peer review. On the other hand, Bevins et al. (2024) was received by the Journal of Archaeological Science on 23 July 2024, accepted a month later and then hit the website a week after that: near light speed in academic publishing. And it does not refer to the earlier paper at all, despite two of its authors’ having contributed to it. Clarke et al. (2024) was ‘in press’ before Bevins et al. (2024) had even hit the editor’s desk. The work that culminated in both papers was done in the UK, Australia, Canada and Sweden, with some potential for poor communication within the two teams. Whatever, the first paper dangled the carrot that Orkney might have been the Altar Stone’s source, on the basis of geochemical evidence that the grains that make up the sandstone could not have been derived from Wales but were from the crystalline basement of NE Scotland. The second shows that this ‘most popular’ Scottish source may be ruled out. To Orcadians and the archaeologists who worked there, long in the shade of vast outpourings from Salisbury Plain, this might come as a great disappointment.
Cyclical sediments of the Devonian Stromness Flagstones. (Credit Mike Norton, Wikimedia)
The latest paper examines 13 samples from 8 outcrops of the Middle Devonian Stromness Flagstones strata in the south of the main island of Orkney close to the Ring of Brodgar and the Stones of Stenness, and the individual monoliths in each. On the main island, however, there is a 500 m sequence of Stromness Flagstones in which can be seen 50 cycles of sedimentation. Each cycle contains sandstone beds of various thicknesses and textures. They are fluviatile, lacustrine or aeolian in origin. So the Neolithic builders of Orkney had a wide choice, depending on where they erected monumental structures. Almost certainly they chose monolithic stones where they were most easy to find: close to the coast where exposure can be 100 %. The Ring of Brodgar and the Stones of Stenness are not on the coast, so the enormous stones would have to be dragged there. There is an ancient pile of stones (Vestra Fiold) about 20 km to the NW where some of the mmegaliths may have been extracted, but ancient Orcadians would have been spoilt for choice if they had their hearts set on erecting monoliths!
In a nutshell, the geological case made by Bevins et al. (2024) for rejecting Orkney as the source for the Stonehenge Altar Stone (AS) is as follows: 1. Grains of the mineral baryte (BaSO4) present in the AS are only found in two of the Orkney rock samples. 2. All the Orcadian sandstone samples contain lots of grains of K-feldspar (KAlSi3O8) – common in the basement rocks of northern Scotland – but the AS contains very little. 3. A particular clay mineral (tosudite) is plentiful in the AS, but was not detected in the rock samples from Orkney. Does that rule out a source in Orkney altogether? Well, no: only the outcrops and megalith samples involved in the study are rejected.
To definitely negate an Orcadian source would require a monumental geochemical and mineralogical study across Orkney; covering every sedimentary cycle. Searching the rest of the Old Red Sandstone elsewhere in NE Scotland – and there is a lot of it – would be even more likely to be fruitless. Tracking down the source for the basaltic bluestones at Stonehenge was easy by comparison, because they crystallised from a particular magma over a narrow time span and underwent a specific degree of later metamorphism. They were easily matched visually and under the microscope with outcrops in West Wales in the 1920s and later by geochemical features common to both.
But all that does not detract from the greater importance of the earlier paper (Clarke et al., 2024), which enhanced the idea of Neolithic cultural coherence and cooperation across the whole of Britain. The building of Stonehenge drew people from the far north of Scotland together with those of what are now Wales and England. Since then it hasn’t always been such an amicable relationship …
High resolution vertical aerial photograph of Stonehenge. (Credit: Gavin Hellier/robertharding/Getty)
During the later parts of the Neolithic the archipelago now known as the British Isles and Ireland was a landscape on which large stone buildings with ritual and astronomical uses were richly scattered. The early British agricultural societies also built innumerable monuments beneath which people of the time were buried, presumably so that they remained in popular memory as revered ancestors. Best known among these constructions is the circular Stonehenge complex of dressed megaliths set in the riot of earlier, contemporary and later human-crafted features of the Chalk downs known as Salisbury Plain. Stonehenge itself is now known to have been first constructed some five thousand years ago (~3000 BCE) as an enclosure surrounded by a circular ditch and bank, together with what seems to have been a circular wooden palisade. This was repeatedly modified during the following two millennia. Around 2600 BCE the wooden circle was replaced by one of stone pillars, each weighing about 2 t. These ‘bluestones’ are of mainly basaltic igneous origin unknown in the Stonehenge area itself. The iconic circle of huge, 4 m monoliths linked by 3 m lintel stones that enclose five even larger trilithons arranged in a horseshoe dates to the following two-centuries to 2400 BCE coinciding with the Early Bronze Age when newcomers from mainland Europe – perhaps as far away as the steppe of western Russia – began to replace or assimilate the local farming communities. This phase included several major modifications of the earlier bluestones.
It might seem that the penchant for circular monuments began with the Neolithic people of Salisbury Plain, and then spread far and wide across the archipelago in a variety of sizes. However, it seems that building of sophisticated monuments, including stone circles, began some two centuries earlier than in southern England in the Orkney Islands 750 km further north and, even more remote, in the Outer Hebrides of Scotland. A variety of archaeological and geochemical evidence, such as the isotopic composition of the bones of livestock brought to the vicinity of Stonehenge during its period of development and use, strongly suggests that people from far afield participated. Remarkably, a macehead made of gneiss from the Outer Hebrides turned up in an early Stonehenge cremation burial. Ideas can only have spread during the Neolithic through the spoken word. As it happens, the very stones themselves came from far afield. The earliest set into the circular structure, the much tinkered-with bluestones, were recognised to be exotic over a century ago. They match late Precambrian dolerites exposed in western Wales, first confirmed in the 1980s through detailed geochemical analyses by the late Richard Thorpe and his wife Olwen Williams-Thorpe of the Open University. Some suggested that they had been glacially transported to Salisbury Plain, despite complete lack of any geological evidence. Subsequently their exact source in the Preseli Hills was found, including a breakage in the quarry that exactly matched the base of one of the Stonehenge bluestones. They had been transported 230 km to the east by Neolithic people, using perhaps several means of transport. The gigantic monoliths, made of ‘sarsen’ – a form of silica-cemented sandy soil or silcrete – were sourced from some 25 km away where Salisbury Plain is still liberally scattered with them. Until recently, that seemed to be that as regards provenance, apart from a flat, 5 x 1 m slab of sandstone weighing about 6 t that two fallen trilithon pillars had partly hidden. At the very centre of the complex, this had been dubbed the ‘Altar Stone’, originally supposed to have been brought with the bluestones from west Wales.
The stones of Stonehenge colour-coded by lithology. The sandstone ‘Altar Stone’ lies beneath fallen blocks of a trilithon at the centre of the circle. (Credit: Clarke et al. 2024, Fig 1a)
A group of geologists from Australia and the UK, some of whom have long been engaged with Stonehenge, recently decided to apply sophisticated geochemistry at two fragments broken from the Altar Stone, presumably when the trilithons fell on it (Clarke, A. J. I. et al.2024. A Scottish provenance for the Altar Stone of Stonehenge. Nature v.632, p. 570–575; DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07652-1). In particular they examined various isotopes and trace-elements in sedimentary grains of zircon, apatite and rutile that weathering of igneous rocks had contributed to the sandstone, along with quartz, feldspar, micas and clay minerals. It turned out that the zircon grains had been derived from Mesoproterozoic and Archaean sources beneath the depositional site of the sediment (the basement). The apatite and rutile grains show clear signs of derivation from 460 Ma old (mid-Ordovician) granites. The basement beneath west Wales is by no stretch of the imagination a repository of any such geology. That of northern Scotland certainly does have such components, and it also has sedimentary rocks derived from such sources: the Devonian of Orkney and mainland Scotland surrounding the Moray Firth. Unlike the lithologically unique bluestones, the sandstone is from a thick and widespread sequence of terrestrial sediments colloquially known as the ‘Old Red Sandstone’. The ORS of NE Scotland was deposited mainly during the Devonian Period (419 to 369 Ma) as a cyclical sequence in a vast, intermontane lake basin. Much the same kinds of rock occur throughout the sequence, so it is unlikely that the actual site where the ‘Alter Stone’ was selected will ever be known.
To get the ‘Alter Stone’ (if indeed that is what it once was) to Stonehenge demanded transport from its source over a far more rugged route, three times longer than the journey that brought the bluestones from west Wales: at least 750 km. It would probably have been dragged overland. Many Neolithic experts believe that transport of such a large block by boat is highly unlikely; it could easily have been lost at sea and, perhaps more important, few would have seen it. An overland route, however arduous, would have drawn the attention of everyone en route, some of whom might have been given the honour of helping drag such a burden for part of the way. The procession would certainly have aroused great interest across the full extent of Britain. Its organisers must have known its destination and what it signified, and the task would have demanded fervent commitment. In many respects it would have been a project that deeply unified most of the population. That could explain why people from near and far visited the Stonehenge site, herding livestock for communal feasting on arrival. Evidence is now pointing to the construction and use of the ritual landscape of Salisbury Plain as an all-encompassing joint venture of most of Neolithic Britain’s population. It would come as no surprise if objects whose provenance is even further afield come to light. It remained in use and was repeatedly modified during the succeeding Bronze Age up to 1600 BCE. By that time, the genetic group whose idea it was had been assimilated, so that only traces of its DNA remain in modern British people. This seems to have resulted from waves of immigrants from Central Europe, the Yamnaya, who brought new technology and the use of metals and horses.
The roof lifted for palaeoanthropologists in October 2004 when news emerged of a fossil from Liang Bua cave on Flores in the Indonesian archipelago. It was an adult female human skull about a third the size of those of anatomically modern humans (see: The little people of Flores, Indonesia; October 2004). Immediately it was dubbed ‘Hobbit’, and from the start controversy raged around this diminutive human. The cave layer contained evidence of fire and sophisticated tools as well as bones of giant rats and minute elephants, presumed to be staple prey for these little people. Despite having brains about the size of a grapefruit – as did australopithecines – the little people challenged our assumptions about intelligence. Preliminary dating from 95 to 17 ka suggested they may have cohabited Indonesia with both H. erectus and AMH. Indeed, modern people of Flores tell legends of the little people they call Ebo Go Go. Like both their ancestors must have crossed treacherous straits between the Indonesian islands, which existed even when global sea level was drawn down by polar icecaps. Once an early suggestion that the original find was the skull of a deformed, microcephalic individual had been refuted by further finds in Flores, scientists turned to natural selection of small stature through living on a small island with limited resources – similar to the tiny elephant Stegodon and other island faunas elsewhere. By 2007, it had become clear from other, similar fossils that they were definitely a distinct species Homo floresiensis (see: Now we can celebrate the ‘Hobbits’! November 2007) with several anatomical similarities to H. erectus. Then more sophisticated dating revealed that the Flores cave sediments containing their fossils and tools spanned 100 to 60 ka, well before AMH reached Indonesia. By 2018 their arrival on Flores, marked by a mandible fragment and 6 teeth in sediments from sediment excavation at Mata Menge 70 km east of Luing Bua, had been pushed back to 773 ka. At the new site stone tools were found in even earlier sediments (1.02 Ma). In 2019 evidence emerged that isolated island evolution in the Philippines had produced similar small descendants (H. luzonensis) by around 67 ka.
Artist’s impression of Homo floresiensis with giant rat. (Credit: Box of Oddities podcast)
The latest development is the finding of a fragment of an adult humerus (an arm bone) in the Mata Menge excavations that had yielded the oldest dates for Homo floresiensis fossils (Kaifu, Y. and 12 others 2024. Early evolution of small body size in Homo floresiensis. Nature Communications, v. 15, article number 6381; DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-50649-7). Comparing the teeth and arm-bone fragment with an intact adult from Liang Bua suggests that the earliest known ancestors of Homo floresiensis were even smaller. The teeth, albeit much smaller, resemble those of Indonesian specimens of H. erectus. That observation helps to rule out earlier speculation that the tiny people of Flores descended from the earliest humans from Africa (H. habilis) that were about the same size, but more than twice as old (2.3 to 1.7 Ma). The evidence points more plausibly towards their evolution from Asian H. erectus, who arrived in Java around 1.1 million years ago. Having solved the issue of ‘island hopping’ to reach Java a group of Asian H. erectus could have found their way to Flores. That island’s biological resources may not have met the survival requirements of a much larger human ancestor but evolution in isolation kept the arrivals alive. Within 300 ka, and perhaps much less for a small population, survival of smaller offspring allowed them a very long and apparently quite comfortable stay on the island. Though diminished in stature, they demonstrated the survival strategies conferred by being smart.
That the Earth has undergone sudden large changes is demonstrated by all manner of geoscientific records. It seems that many of these catastrophic events occurred whenever steady changes reach thresholds that trigger new behaviours in the interlinked atmosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere, biosphere and lithosphere that constitute the Earth system. The driving forces for change, both steady and chaotic, may be extra-terrestrial, such as the Milankovich cycles and asteroid impacts, due to Earth processes themselves or a mixture of the two. Our home world is and always has been supremely complicated; the more obviously so as knowledge advances. Abrupt transitions in components of the Earth system occur when a critical forcing threshold is passed, creating a ‘tipping point’. Examples in the geologically short term are ice-sheet instability, the drying of the Sahara, collapse of tropical rain forest in the Amazon Basin, but perhaps the most important is the poleward transfer of heat in the North Atlantic Ocean. That is technically known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation with the ominous acronym AMOC.
As things stand today, warm Atlantic surface water, made more saline and dense by evaporation in the tropics is transferred northwards by the Gulf Stream. Its cooling at high latitudes further increases the density of this water, so at low temperatures it sinks to flow southwards at depth. This thermohaline circulation continually pulls surface water northwards to create the AMOC, thereby making north-western European winters a lot warmer than they would be otherwise. Data from Greenland ice cores show that during the climatic downturn to the last glacial maximum, the cooling trend was repeatedly interrupted by sudden warming-cooling episodes, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger events, one aspect of which was the launching of “armadas” of icebergs to latitudes as far south as Portugal (known as Heinrich events), which left their mark as occasional gravel layers in the otherwise muddy sediments on the deep Atlantic floor (see: Review of thermohaline circulation; February 2002).
These episodes involved temperature changes over the Greenland icecap of as much as 15°C. They began with warming on this scale within a matter of decades followed by slow cooling to minimal temperatures, before the next turn-over. Various lines of evidence suggest that these events were accompanied by shutdowns of AMOC and hence the Gulf Stream, as shown by variations in the foraminifera species in sea-floor sediments. The culprit was vast amounts of fresh water pouring into the Arctic and northernmost Atlantic Oceans, decreasing the salinity and density of the surface ocean water. In these cases that may have been connected to repeated collapse of circumpolar ice sheets to launch Heinrich’s iceberg armadas. A similar scenario has been proposed for the millennium-long Younger Dryas cold spell that interrupted the onset of interglacial conditions. In that case the freshening of high-latitude surface water was probably a result of floods released when glacial barriers holding back vast lakes on the Canadian Shield burst.
At present the Greenland icecap is melting rapidly. Rising sea level may undermine the ice sheet’s coastal edges causing it to surge seawards and launch an iceberg armada. This may be critical for AMOC and the continuance of the Gulf Stream, as predicted by modelling: counter-intuitive to the fears of global warming, at least for NW Europe. In August 2024 scientists from Germany and the UK published what amounts to a major caution about attempts to model future catastrophes of this kind (Ben-Yami, M. et al 2024, Uncertainties too large to predict tipping times of major Earth system components from historical data, Science Advances, v. 10, article eadl4841; DOI 10.1126/sciadv.adl4841). They focus on records of the AMOC system, for which an earlier modelling study predicted that a collapse could occur between 2025 and 2095: of more concern than global warming beyond the 1.5° C currently predicted by greenhouse-gas climate models .
Maya Ben-Yami and colleagues point out that the assumptions about mechanisms in Earth-system modelling and possible social actions to mitigate sudden change are simplistic. Moreover, models used for forecasting rely on historical data sets that are sparse and incomplete and depend on proxies for actual variables, such as sea-surface and air temperatures. The further back in geological time, the more limited the data are. The authors assess in detail data sets and modelling algorithms that bear on AMOC. Rather than a chance of AMOC collapse in the 21st century, as suggested by others, Ben Yami et al. reckon that any such event lies between 2055 and 8065 CE, which begs the question, “Is such forecasting worth the effort?”, however appealing it might seem to the academics engaged in climatology. The celebrated British Met Office and other meteorological institutions, use enormous amounts of data, the fastest computers and among the most powerful algorithms on the planet to simulate weather conditions in the very near future. They openly admit a limit on accurate forecasting of no more than 7 day ahead. ‘Weather’ can be regarded as short-term climate change.
It is impossible to stop scientists being curious and playing sophisticated computer games with whatever data they have to hand. Yet, while it is wise to take climate predictions with a pinch of salt because of their gross limitations, the lessons of the geological past do demand attention. AMOC has shut down in the past – the last being during the Younger Dryas – and it will do so again. Greenhouse global warming probably increases the risk of such planetary hiccups, as may other recent anthropogenic changes in the Earth system. The most productive course of action is to reduce and, where possible, reverse those changes. In my honest opinion, our best bet is swiftly to rid ourselves of an economic system that in the couple of centuries since the ‘Industrial Revolution’ has wrought these unnatural distortions.
In 1961 ten scientists interested in a search for extra-terrestrial intelligence met at Green Bank, West Virginia, USA, none of whom were geologists or palaeontologists. The participants called themselves “The Order of the Dolphin”, inspired by the thorny challenge of discovering how small cetaceans communicated: still something of a mystery. To set the ball rolling, Frank Drake an American astrophysicist and astrobiologist, proposed an algorithm aimed at forecasting the number of planets elsewhere in our galaxy on which ‘active, communicative civilisations’ (ACCs) might live. The Drake Equation is formulated as:
ACCs = R* · fp · ne · fl · fi · fc · L
where R* = number of new stars formed per year, fp = the fraction of stars with planetary systems, ne = the average number of planets that could support life (habitable planets) per planetary system, fl = the fraction of habitable planets that develop primitive life, fi = the fraction of planets with life that evolve intelligent life and civilizations, fc = the fraction of civilizations that become ACCs,L = the length of time that ACCs broadcast radio into space. A team of then renowned scientists from several disciplines discussed what numbers to attach to these parameters. Their ‘educated guesses’ were: R* – one star per year; fp – one fifth to one half of all stars will have planets; ne – 1 to 5 planets per planetary system will be habitable; of which 100% will develop life (fl) and 100% (fi) will eventually develop intelligent life and civilisations; of those civilisations 10 to 20 % (fc) will eventually develop radio communications; which will survive for between a thousand years and 100 Ma (L). Acknowledging the great uncertainties in all the parameters, Drake inferred that between 103 and 108 ACCs exist today in the Milky Way, which is ~100 light years across and contains 1 to 4 x 1011 stars).
Today the values attached to the parameters and the outcomes seem absurdly optimistic to most people, simply because, despite 4 decades of searching by SETI there have been no signs of intelligible radio broadcasts from anywhere other than Earth and space probes launched from here. This is humorously referred to as the Fermi Paradox. There are however many scientists who still believe that we are not alone in the galaxy, and several have suggested reasons why nothing has yet been heard from ACCs. Robert Stern of the University of Texas (Dallas), USA and Taras Gerya of ETH-Zurich, Switzerland have sought clues from the history of life on Earth and that of the inorganic systems from which it arose and in which it has evolved that bear on the lack of any corrigible signals in the 63 years since the Drake Equation (Stern, R.J & Gerya, T.V. 2024. The importance of continents, oceans and plate tectonics for the evolution of complex life: implications for finding extraterrestrial civilizations. Nature (Scientific Reports), v. 14, article 8552; DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-54700-x – definitely worth reading). Of course, Stern and Gerya too are fascinated by the scientific question as to whether or not there are ‘active, communicative civilisations’ elsewhere in the cosmos. Their starting point is that the Drake Equation is either missing some salient parameters, or that those it includes are assigned grossly optimistic magnitudes.
Life seems to have been present on Earth 3.8 Ga ago but multicelled animals probably arose only in the Late Neoproterozoic since 1.0 Ga ago. So here it has taken a billion years for their evolution to achieve terrestrial ACC-hood. Stern and Gerya address what processes favour life and its rapid evolution. Primarily, life depends on abundant liquid water: i.e. on a planet within the ‘Goldilocks Zone’ around a star. The authors assume a high supply of bioactive compounds – organic carbon, ammonium, ferrous iron and phosphate to watery environments. Phosphorus is critical to their scenario building. It is most readily supplied by weathering of exposed continental crust, but demands continual exposure of fresh rock by erosion and river transport to maintain a steady supply to the oceans. Along with favourable climatic conditions, that can only be achieved by an oxidising environment that followed the Great Oxidation Event (2.4 to 2.1 Ga) and continual topographic rejuvenation by plate tectonics.
A variety of Earth-logs posts have discussed various kinds of evidence for the likely onset of plate tectonics, largely focussing on the Hadean and Archaean. Stern and Gerya prefer the Proterozoic Eon that preserves more strands of relevant evidence, from which sea-floor spreading, subduction and repeated collision orogenies can confidently be inferred. All three occur overwhelmingly in Neoproterozoic and Phanerozoic times. Geologists often refer to the whole of the Mesoproterozoic and back to about 2.0 Ga in the Palaeoproterozoic as the ‘Boring Billion’ during which carbon isotope data suggest very little change in the status of living processes: they were present but nothing dramatic happened after the Great Oxidation Event. ‘Hard-rock’ geology also reveals far less passive extensional events that indicate continental break-up and drift than occur after 1.0 Ga and to the present. It also includes a unique form of magmatism that formed rocks dominated by sodium-rich feldspar (anorthosites) and granites that crystallised from water-poor magmas. They are thought to represent build-ups of heat in the mantle unrelieved by plate-tectonic circulation. Before the ‘Boring Billion’ such evidence as there is does point to some kind of plate motions, if not in the modern style.
How different styles of tectonics influence living processes differently: a single stagnant ‘lid’ versus plate tectonics. (Credit: Stern and Gerya, Fig 2)
Stern and Gerya conclude that the ‘Boring Billion’ was dominated by relative stagnation in the form of lid tectonics. They compare the influence of stagnant ‘lid’ tectonics on life and evolution with that of plate tectonics in terms of: bioactive element supply; oxygenation; climate control; habitat formation; environmental pressure (see figure). In each case single lid tectonics is likely to retard life and evolution, whereas plate tectonics stimulates them as it has done from the time of Snowball Earth and throughout the Phanerozoic. Only one out of 8 planets that orbit the sun displays plate tectonics and has both oceans and continents. Could habitable planets be a great deal rarer than Drake and his pals assumed? [look at exoplanets in Wikipedia] Whatever, Stern and Gerya suggest that the seemingly thwarted enthusiasm surrounding the Drake Equation needs to be tempered by the addition of two new terms: the fraction of habitable exoplanets with significant continents and oceans (foc)and the fraction of them that have experienced plate tectonics for at least half a billion years (fpt). They estimate foc to be on the order of 0.0002 to 0.01, and suggest a value for fpt of less than 0.17. Multiplied together yields value between less than 0.00003 and 0.002. Their incorporation in the Drake Equation drastically reduces the potential number of ACCs to between <0.006 and <100,000, i.e. to effectively none in the Milky Way galaxy rising to a still substantial number
There are several other reasons to reject such ‘ball-parking’ cum ‘back-of-the-envelope’ musings. For me the killer is that biological evolution can never be predicted in advance. What happened on our home world is that the origin and evolution of life have been bound up with the unique inorganic evolution of the Solar System and the Earth itself over more than 4.5 billion years. That ranges in magnitude from the early collision with another, Mars-sized world that reset the proto-Earth’s geochemistry and created a large moon whose gravity has cycled the oceans through tides and changed the length of the day continually for almost the whole of geological history. At least once, at the end of the Cretaceous Period, a moderately sized asteroid in unstable orbit almost wiped out life at an advanced stage in its evolution. During the last quarter billion years internally generated geological forcing mechanisms have repeatedly and seriously stressed the biosphere in roughly 36 Ma cycles (Boulila, S. et al. 2023. Earth’s interior dynamics drive marine fossil diversity cycles of tens of millions of years. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, v. 120 article e2221149120; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2221149120). Two outcomes were near catastrophic mass extinctions, at the ends of the Permian and Triassic Periods, from which life struggled to continue. As well as extinctions, such ‘own goals’ reset global ecosystems repeatedly to trigger evolutionary diversification based on the body plans of surviving organisms.
Such unique events have been going on for four billion years, including whatever triggered the Snowball Earth episodes that accompanied the Great Oxygenation Event around 2.4 Ga and returned to coincide with the rise of multicelled animals during the Cryogenian and Ediacaran Periods of the Late Neoproterozoic. For most of the Phanerozoic a background fibrillation of gravitational fields in the Solar System has occasionally resulted in profound cycling between climatic extremes and their attendant stresses on ecosystems and their occupants. The last of these coincided with the evolution of humanity: the only creator of an active, communicative civilisation of which we know anything. But it took four billion years of a host of diverse vagaries, both physical and biological to make such a highly unlikely event possible. That known history puts the Drake Equation firmly in its place as the creature of a bunch of self-publicising and regarding, ambitious academics who in 1961 basically knew ‘sweet FA’. I could go on … but the wealth of information in Stern and Gerya’s work is surely fodder for a more pessimistic view of other civilisations in the cosmos.
Someone – I forget who – provided another, very practical reason underlying the lack of messages from afar. It is not a good idea to become known to all and sundry in the galaxy, for fear that others might come to exploit, enslave and/or harvest. Earth is still in a kind of imperialist phase from which lessons could be drawn!
You can follow my ‘reportage’ on the long running story of the Snowball Earth events during the Neoproterozoic Cryogenian Period (850 to 635 Ma) since 2000 through the index to annual Palaeoclimatology logs (15 posts). Once these dramatic events were over sedimentary rocks deposited around the world during the Ediacaran Period (635 to 541 Ma) record the sudden appearance of large-bodied fossils: the first multicellular animals. This explosion from slimy biofilms and colonies of single-celled prokaryotes and eukaryotes laid the basis for the myriad ecological niches that have characterised Planet Earth ever since. The change saw specialised eukaryote cells (see: The rise of the eukaryotes; December 2017), whose precursors had originated in single-celled forms, begin to cooperate inthe development of complex tissues, organs, and organ systems to form bodies rather than just cell walls. The pulsating evolution, diversification and repeated extinction that followed during the last one tenth of geological time shaped a planet that is unique in the Solar System and possibly in the galaxy, if not the entire universe. The simple biosphere that preceded it, on the other hand, may have emerged on innumerable rocky planets blessed with liquid water to survive little changed for billions of years, as have Earths’ prokaryotes, the Archaea and Bacteria.
Artist’s impression of the Ediacaran Fauna (credit: Science)
The Ediacaran biological revolution followed repeated changes in the geochemistry of the oceans, which carbon isotope data from the Cryogenian and Ediacaran suggest to have ‘gone haywire’. This turmoil involved dramatic changes in the cycling of sulfur and phosphorus that help ‘fertilise’ the marine food chain and in the production of oxygen by photosynthesis that is essential for metazoan animals. The episodes when the Earth was iced over reduced the availability of nutrients through decreased rates of ocean-floor burial of dead organisms. Such Snowball events would also have reduced penetration of sunlight in the oceans. Less photosynthesis would not only have reduced oxygen production but also the amounts of autotrophic organisms. Furthermore, decreased water temperature would have increased its viscosity thereby slowing the spread of nutrients. The food chain for heterotrophs was decimated. Each Snowball event ended with warming, ice-free conditions so that the marine biosphere could burgeon
A great deal of data and numerous theories have accumulated since the Snowball concept was first mooted, but there has been little progress in understanding the rise of multi-celled life. Four geoscientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the Santa Fe Institute and the University of Colorado (Boulder), USA have developed an interesting hypothesis for how this enormous evolutionary step may have developed (Crockett, W.W. et al. 2024. Physical constraints during Snowball Earth drive the evolution of multicellularity. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, v. 291; DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2023.2767). The concatenation of huge events during the Cryogenian and Ediacaran presented continually changing patterns of selective pressures on simple organisms that preceded that time period. Crockett et al. review them in the light of fundamental biology to suggest how multicellular animals emerged as the Ediacara Fauna. Intuitively, such harsh conditions suggest at worst mass, even complete, extinction, at best a general reduction in size of all organism to cope with scarce resources. That the size of eukaryotes should have grown hugely goes against the grain of most biologists’ outlook.
The authors consider the crucial factor to be fundamental differences between prokaryotes and early eukaryotes. Prokaryote cells are very small, and whether autotrophs of heterotrophs they absorb nutrients through their walls by diffusion. Single-celled eukaryotes are far larger than prokaryotes and typically have a flagellum or ‘tail’ so that they can move independently and more easily gather resources. Crockett et al. used computer modelling to simulate the type of life form that could grow and thrive under Snowball conditions. They found that prokaryotes could only grow smaller, being ‘stunted’ by scarce resources. On the other hand eukaryotes would be better equipped to gather resources, the more so if they adopted a simple multicellular form – a hollow, self-propelled sphere about the size of a pea, which the authors dub a choanoblastula. Although no such form is known today, it does resemble the green Volvox algae, and plausibly could have evolved further to the simple forms of the Ediacaran fauna. The next task is either to find a fossil of such an organism, or to grow one.
Charles Darwin famously suggested that humans evolved from apes, and since great apes (chimpanzees, bonobos and gorillas) live in Africa he reckoned it was probably there that the human ‘line’ began. Indeed, the mitochondrial DNA of chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) is the closest to that of living humans. Palaeoanthropology in Africa has established evolutionary steps during the Pleistocene (2.0 to 0.3 Ma) by early members of the genus Homo: H. habilis, H. ergaster, H. erectus; H. heidelbergensis and the earliest H. sapiens. Members of the last three migrated to Eurasia, beginning around 1.8 Ma with the individuals found at Dmanisi in Georgia. The earliest African hominins emerged through the Late Miocene (7.0 to 5.3 Ma): Sahelanthropus tchadensi, Orrorin tugenensis and Ardipthecus kadabba. Through the Pliocene (5.3 to 2.9 Ma) and earliest Pleistocene two very distinct hominin groups appeared: the ‘gracile’ australopithecines (Ardipithecus ramidus; Australopithecus anamensis; Au. afarensis; Au. africanus; Au. sediba) and the ‘robust’ paranthropoids (Paranthropus aethiopicus; P. robustus and P. boisei). The last of the paranthropoids cohabited East Africa with early homo species until around 1.4 Ma. Most of these species have been covered in Earth-logs and an excellent time line of most hominin and early human fossils is hosted by Wikipedia.
All apes, including ourselves, and fossil examples are members of the Family Hominidae (hominids) which refers to the entire world. A Subfamily (Homininae) refers to African apes, with two Tribes. One, the Gorillini, refers to the two living species of gorilla. The other is the Hominini (hominins) that includes chimpanzees, living humans and all fossils believed to be on the evolutionary line to Homo. The Tribe Hominini is defined to have descended from the common ancestor of modern humans and chimps, and evolved only in Africa. As the definition of hominins stands, it excludes other possibilities! The Miocene of Africa before 7.2 Ma ‘goes cold’ as regards the evolution of hominins. There are, however fossils of other African apes in earlier Miocene strata (8 to 18 Ma) that have been assigned to the Family Hominidae, i.e. hominids, of which more later.
Much has been made of using a ‘molecular clock’ to hint at the length of time since the mtDNA of living humans and chimps began to diverge from their last common ancestor. That is a crude measure at it depends entirely on assuming a fixed rate at which genetic mutation in primates take place. Many factors render it highly uncertain, until ancient DNA is recovered from times before about 400 ka, if ever. The approach suggests a range from 7 to 10 Ma, yet the evolutionary history of chimps based on fossils is practically invisible: the earliest fossil of a member of genus Pan is from the Middle Pleistocene (1.2 to 0.8 Ma) of Kenya. Indeed, we have little if any clue about what such a common ancestor looked like or did. So the course of human evolution relies entirely on the fossil sequence of earlier African hominins and comparing their physical appearances. Each species in the African time line displays two distinctive features. All were bipedal and had small canine teeth. Modern chimps habitually use knuckle walking except when having to cross waterways. As with virtually all other primates, fossil or living, male chimps have large, threatening canines. In the absence of ancient DNA from fossils older than 0.4 Ma these two features present a practical if crude way of assessing to when and where the hominin time line leads.
In 2002 a Polish geologist on holiday at the beach at Trachilos on Crete discovered a trackway on a bedding plane in shallow-marine Miocene sediments. It had been left by what seems to have been a bipedal hominin. Subsequent research was able to date the footprints to about 6.05 Ma. Though younger than Sahelanthropus, the discovery potentially challenges the exclusivity of hominins to Africa. Unsurprisingly, publication of this tentative interpretation drew negative responses from some quarters. But the discovery helped resurrect the notion that Africa may have been colonised in the Miocene by hominins that had evolved in Europe. That had been hinted at by the 1872 excavation of Oreopithecus bamboliifrom an Upper Miocene (~7.6 Ma) lignite mine in Tuscany, Italy – a year after publication of Darwin’s The Descent of Man.
Lignites in Tuscany and Sardinia have since yielded many more specimens, so the species is well documented. Oreopithecus could walk on two legs, its hands were capable of a precision grip and it had relatively small canines. Its Wikipedia entry cautiously refers to it as ‘hominid’ – i.e. lumped with all apes to comply with current taxonomic theory (above). In 2019 another fascinating find was made in a clay pit in Bavaria, Germany. Danuvius guggenmosi lived 11.6 Ma ago and fossilised remains of its leg- and arm bones suggested that it could walk on two legs: it too may have been on the hominin line. But no remains of Danuvius’s skull or teeth have been found. There is now an embarrassment of riches as regards Miocene fossil apes from Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean (Sevim-Erol, A. and 8 others 2023. A new ape from Türkiye and the radiation of late Miocene hominines. Nature Communications Biology, v. 6, article 842.; DOI: 10.1038/s42003-023-05210-5). A number of them closely resemble the earliest fossil hominins of Africa, but most predate the hominin record there by several million years.
Phylogenetic links between fossils assigned to Hominidae found in Africa and north of the Mediterranean Sea. (Credit: Sevim-Erol et al. 2023, Fig 5)
Ayla Sevim-Erol of Ankara University, Turkiye and colleagues from Turkiye, Canada and the Netherlands describe a newly identified Miocene genus, Anadoluvius, which they place in the Subfamily Homininae dated to around 8.7 Ma. Fragments of crania and partial male and female mandibles from Anatolia show that its canines were small and comparable with those of younger African hominins, such as Ardipithecus and Australopithecus. But limb bones are yet to be found. Around the size of a large male chimpanzee, Anadoluvius lived in an ecosystem remarkably like the grasslands and dry forests of modern East Africa, with early species of giraffes, wart hogs, rhinos, diverse antelopes, zebras, elephants, porcupines, hyenas and lion-like carnivores. Sevim-Erol et al. have attempted to trace back hominin evolution further than is possible with African fossils. They compare various skeletal features of different fossils and living genera to assess varying degrees of similarity between each genus, applied to 23 genera. These comprised 7 hominids from the African Miocene, 2 early African hominins (Ardipithecus and Orrorin) and 10 Miocene hominids from Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean. They also assessed similarities with 4 living genera, Homo, orang utan (Pongo), gorilla and chimp (Pan).
The resulting phylogeny shows close morphological links within a cluster (green ‘pools’ on diagram) of non-African hominids with the African hominins, gorillas, humans and chimps. There are less-close relations between that cluster and the earlier Miocene hominids of Africa (blue ‘pool’) and the possible phylogeny of orang utans (orange ‘pool’). Sevim-Erol et al. note that African hominins are clearly more similar and perhaps more closely related to the fossils of Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean than they are to Miocene African hominids. This suggests that evolution among the non-African hominids ceased around the end of the Miocene Epoch north of the Mediterranean Sea. But it may have continued in Africa. Somehow, therefore, it became possible late in Miocene times for hominids to migrate from Europe to Africa. Yet the earlier, phylogenetically isolated African hominids seem to have ‘crashed’ at roughly the same time. Such a complex scenario cannot be supported by phylogenetic studies alone: it needs some kind of ecological impetus.
The Mediterranean Basin at the end of the Miocene Epoch when the only water was in the deepest parts of the basin. (Credit: Wikipedia, Creative Commons)
Following a ‘mild’ tectonic collision between the African continent and the Iberian Peninsula during the late Miocene connection between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea was blocked from 6.0 to 5.3 Ma. Except for its deepest parts, seawater in the Mediterranean evaporated away to leave thick salt deposits. Rivers, such as the Rhône, Danube, Dneiper and Nile, shed sediments into the exposed basin. For 700 ka the basin was a fertile, sub-sea level plain, connecting Europe and North Africa over and E-W distance of 3860 km. There was little to stop the faunas of Eurasia and Africa migrating and intermingling, at a critical period in the evolution of the Family Hominidae. One genus presented with the opportunity was quite possibly the last common ancestor of all the hominins and chimps. The migratory window vanished at the end of the Miocene when what became the Strait of Gibraltar opened at 5.3 to allow Atlantic water. This resulted in the stupendous Zanclean flood with a flow rate about 1,000 times that of the present-day Amazon River. An animation of these events is worth watching
Floods pose a huge threat to the large populations of West Bengal, India and the state of Bangladesh, particularly in the highly fertile fluvio-deltaic plains of the Ganges and Brahmaputra. The two river systems drain 2 million km2 of the Eastern Himalaya of annual monsoon rains and snow melt, the first flowing west to east and the latter from east to west at the apex of the low-lying Bengal Basin. The 400 million people subsisting in the 105 thousand km2 onshore basin make it the world’s most populous delta plain with one of the highest population densities, averaging 1,100 per square kilometre in 2019. The risk of catastrophic flooding is generally ascribed to unusually high monsoonal precipitation and snow melt, combined with storm surges from the Bay of Bengal that funnels tropical cyclones. But either can bring inundation. Another factor has recently been proposed as an addition to flood hazard: earthquakes near the basin (Chamberlain, E.L and 12 others 2024. Cascading hazards of a major Bengal basin earthquake and abrupt avulsion of the Ganges River. Nature Communications, v. 15, online article 4975; DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47786-4). It seems they can completely and suddenly change the flow networks in such a complex system of major channels.
Using remotely sensed data Elizabeth Chamberlain, currently at Wageningen University in the Netherlands, and colleagues from Bangladesh, the US, Germany and Austria have detected an immense abandoned channel in the Ganges River. They reckon that it resulted from a sudden change in the river’s course. Such avulsions in the sluggish lower parts of a river system are generally caused by the flow becoming elevated above the flood plain by levees. When they burst free the channel may be abandoned. This one is 1.0 to 1.7 km wide and may have been the main Ganges channel at the time of avulsion. The main channel now flows about 45 km north of the abandoned relic. The event must have been sudden and irreversible as the relic channel contains a much thinner layer of fine mud deposited by stagnant water than in other abandoned channels that became ox-bow lakes. That implies rapid uplift and complete drainage from the channel. Throughout the Bengal Basin the immense high-water discharge and heavy sediment load seems generally to have infilled most abandoned channels, so this one is an anomaly.
Sand dykes along fractures in river alluvium of the Bengal Basin. (Credit: Chamberlain et al. Figs 3c and 3d)
Fieldwork near the old channel reveals fracturing of earlier riverbed sediments some of which are filled by intrusions of sand in the form of dykes up to 40 cm wide. Sand dykes are produced by liquefaction of sandy alluvium by seismic waves to slurry that can be injected into fractures pulled apart by seismic movements. The channel is now about 3 m below the level of the floodplain, suggesting subsidence since the avulsion event. Optically stimulated luminescence dating of sediment grains from the uppermost channel sands yielded ages averaging around 2.5 ka, marking the time when the sudden event took place. The authors consider that it marked a major reorganisation of the Ganges River system, involving catastrophic flooding. The nearest seismically active area is about 180 to 300 km to the east and northeast. Seismic modelling suggests that for liquefaction and fracturing to have affected the area of the abandoned channel the earthquake must have been of magnitude 7.5–8.0, possibly in the subduction zone that roughly follows the Bangladesh-Myanmar border. It may have had similar, yet to be demonstrated, effects throughout the eastern Bengal Basin.
There are no historic records of more recent massive earthquake-induced flooding of the Bengal Basin. However, global warming and growing human intervention in the Ganges-Brahmaputra river systems, such as large-scale dredging and industrialisation could make such events more likely. Other basins close to seismically active fault systems, such as the Yangtze and Yellow River basins of China, also face such risks.
Many thanks to Piso Mojado for giving me the tip about this paper
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