Tag: environment

The end-Triassic mass extinction and ocean acidification

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Triassic reef limestones in the Dolomites of northern Italy. Credit: © Matteo Volpone

Four out of six mass extinctions that ravaged life on Earth during the last 300 Ma coincided with large igneous events marked by basaltic flood volcanism. But not all such bursts of igneous activity match significant mass extinctions. Moreover, some rapid rises in the rate of extinction are not clearly linked to peaks in igneous activity. Another issue in this context is that ‘kill mechanisms’ are generally speculative rather than based on hard data. Large igneous events inevitably emit very large amounts of gases and dust-sized particulates into the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide, being a greenhouse gas, tends to heat up the global climate, but also dissolves in seawater to lower its pH. Both global warming and more acidic oceans are possible ‘kill mechanisms’. Volcanic emission of sulfur dioxide results in acid rain and thus a decrease in the pH of seawater. But if it is blasted into the stratosphere it combines with oxygen and water vapour to form minute droplets of sulfuric acid. These form long-lived haze, which reflects solar energy beck into space. Such an increased albedo therefore tends to cool the planet and create a so-called ‘volcanic winter’. Dust that reaches the stratosphere reduces penetration of visible light to the surface, again resulting in cooling. But since photosynthetic organisms rely on blue and red light to power their conversion of CO­2­ and water vapour to carbohydrates and oxygen, these primary producers at the base of the marine and terrestrial food webs decline. That presents a fourth kill mechanism that may trigger mass extinction on land and in the oceans: starvation.

Palaeontologists have steadily built up a powerful case for occasional mass extinctions since fossils first appear in the stratigraphic record of the Phanerozoic Eon. Their data are simply the numbers of species, genera and families of organisms preserved as fossils in packages of sedimentary strata that represent roughly equal ‘parcels’ of time (~10 Ma). Mass extinctions are now unchallengeable parts of life’s history and evolution. Yet, assigning specific kill mechanisms involved in the damage that they create remains very difficult. There are hypotheses for the cause of each mass extinction, but a dearth of data that can test why they happened. The only global die-off near hard scientific resolution is that at the end of the Cretaceous. The K-Pg (formerly K-T) event has been extensively covered in Earth-logs since 2000. It involved a mixture of global ecological stress from the Deccan large igneous event spread over a few million years of the Late Cretaceous, with the near-instantaneous catastrophe induced by the Chicxulub impact, with a few remaining dots and ticks needed on ‘i’s and ‘t’s. Other possibilities have been raised: gamma-ray bursts from distant supernovae; belches of methane from the sea floor; emissions of hydrogen sulfide gas from seawater itself during ocean anoxia events; sea-level changes etc.

The mass extinction that ended the Triassic (~201 Ma) coincides with evidence for intense volcanism in South and North America, Africa and southern Europe, then at the core of the Pangaea supercontinent. Flood basalts and large igneous intrusions – the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP) – began the final break-up of Pangaea. The end-Triassic extinction deleted 34% of marine genera. Marine sediments aged around 201 Ma reveal a massive shift in sulfur and carbon isotopes in the ocean that has been interpreted as a sign of acute anoxia in the world’s oceans, which may have resulted in massive burial of oxygen-starved marine animal life. However, there is no sign of Triassic, carbon-rich deep-water sediments that characterise ocean anoxia events in later times. But it is possible that bacteria that use the reduction of sulfate (SO42-) to sulfide (S2-) ions as an energy source for them to decay dead organisms, could have produced the sulfur isotope ‘excursion’. That would also have produced massive amounts of highly toxic hydrogen sulfide gas, which would have overwhelmed terrestrial animal life at continental margins. The solution ofH2S in water would also have acidified the world’s oceans.

Molly Trudgill of the University of St Andrews, Scotland and colleagues from the UK, France, the Netherlands, the US, Norway, Sweden and Ireland set out to test the hypothesis of end-Triassic oceanic acidification (Trudgill, M. and 24 others 2025. Pulses of ocean acidification at the Triassic–Jurassic boundary. Nature Communications, v. 16, article 6471; DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-61344-6). The team used Triassic fossil oysters from before the extinction time interval. Boron-isotope data from the shells are a means of estimating variations in the pH of seawater. Before the extinction event the average pH in Triassic seawater was about the same as today, at 8.2 or slightly alkaline. By 201 Ma the pH had shifted towards acidic conditions by at least 0.3: the biggest detected in the Phanerozoic record. One of the most dramatic changes in Triassic marine fauna was the disappearance of reef limestones made by the recently evolved modern corals on a vast scale in the earlier Triassic; a so-called ‘reef gap’ in the geological record. That suggests a possible analogue to the waning of today’s coral reefs that is thought to be a result of increased dissolution of CO2 in seawater and acidification, related to global greenhouse warming. Using the fossil oysters, Trudgill et al. also sought a carbon-isotope ‘fingerprint’ for the source of elevated CO2, finding that it mainly derived from the mantle, and was probably emitted by CAMP volcanism. So their discussion centres mainly on end-Triassic ocean acidification as an analogy for current climate change driven by CO2 largely emitted by anthropogenic burning of fossil fuels. Nowhere in their paper do they mention any role for acidification by hydrogen sulfide emitted by massive anoxia on the Triassic ocean floor, which hit the scientific headlines in 2020 (see earlier link).

A major breakthrough in carbon capture and storage?

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Carbon capture and storage is in the news most weeks and is increasingly on the agenda for some governments. But plans to implement the CCS approach to reducing and stopping global warming increasingly draws scorn from scientists and environmental campaigners. There is a simple reason for their suspicion. State engagement, in the UK and other rich countries, involves major petroleum companies that developed the oil and gas fields responsible for unsustainably massive injection of CO2 into the atmosphere. Because they have ‘trousered’ stupendous profits they are a tempting source for the financial costs of pumping CO2 into porous sedimentary rocks that once contained hydrocarbon reserves. Not only that, they have conducted such sequestration over decades to drive out whatever petroleum fluids remaining in previously tapped sedimentary strata. For that second reason, many oil companies are eager and willing to comply with governmental plans, thereby seeming to be environmentally ‘friendly’. It also tallies with their ambitions to continue making profits from fossil-fuel extraction. But isn’t that simply a means of replacing the sequestered greenhouse gas with more of it generated by burning the recovered oil and natural gas; i.e. ‘kicking the can down the road’? Being a gas – technically a ‘free phase’ – buried CO2 also risks leaking back to the atmosphere through fractures in the reservoir rock. Indeed, some potential sites for its sequestration have been deliberately made more gas-permeable by ‘fracking’ as a means of increasing the yield of petroleum-rich rock. Finally, a litre of injected gas can drive out pretty much the same volume of oil. So this approach to CCS may yield a greater potential for greenhouse warming than would the sequestered carbon dioxide itself.

Image of calcite (white) and chlorite (cyan) formed in porous basalt due to CO2-charged water-rock interaction at the CarbFix site in Iceland. (Credit: Sandra Ósk Snæbjörnsdóttir)

Another, less widely publicised approach is to geochemically bind CO2 into solid carbonates, such as calcite (CaCO­3), dolomite (CaMgCO3), or magnesite (MgCO3). Once formed such crystalline solids are unlikely to break down to their component parts at the surface, under water or buried. One way of doing this is by the chemical weathering of rocks that contain calcium- and magnesium-rich minerals, such as feldspar (CaAl2Si2O8), olivine ([Fe,Mg]2SiO4) and pyroxene ([Fe,Mg]CaSi2O6) . Mafic and ultramafic rocks, such as basalt and peridotite are commonly composed of such minerals. One approach involves pumping the gas into a Icelandic borehole that passes through basalt and letting natural reactions do the trick. They give off heat and proceed quickly, very like those involved in the setting of concrete. In two experimental field trials 95% of injected CO2 was absorbed within 18 months. Believe it or not, ants can do the trick with crushed basalt and so too can plant roots. There have been recent experiments aimed at finding accelerants for such subsurface weathering (Wang, J. et al. 2024. CO2 capture, geological storage, and mineralization using biobased biodegradable chelating agents and seawater. Science Advances, v. 10, article eadq0515; DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adq0515). In some respects the approach is akin to fracking. The aim is to connect isolated natural pores to allow fluids to permeate rock more easily, and to release metal ions to combine with injected CO2.

Chelating agents are biomolecules that are able to dissolve metal ions; some are used to remove toxic metals, such as lead, mercury and cadmium, from the bodies of people suffering from their effects. Naturally occurring ones extract metal ions from minerals and rocks and are agents of chemical weathering; probably used by the aforesaid ants and root systems. Wang and colleagues, based at Tohoku University in Japan, chose a chelating agent GLDA (tetrasodium glutamate diacetate –  C9H9NNa4O8) derived from plants, which is non-toxic, cheap and biodegradable. They injected CO2 and seawater containing dissolved GDLA into basaltic rock samples. The GDLA increases the rock’s porosity and permeability by breaking down its minerals so that Ca and Mg ions entered solution and were thereby able to combine with the gas to form carbonate minerals. Within five days porosity was increased by 16% and the rocks permeability increased by 26 times. Using electron microscopy the authors were able to show fine particles of carbonate growing in the connected pores. In fact these carbonate aggregates become coated with silica released by the induced mineral-weathering reactions. Calculations based on the previously mentioned field experiment in Iceland suggest that up to 20 billion tonnes of CO2 could be stored in 1.3 km3 of basalt treated in this way: about 1/25000 of the active rift system in Iceland (3.3 x 104 km2 covered by 1 km of basalt lava). In 2023 fossil fuel use emitted an estimated 36.6 bllion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere.

So, why do such means of efficiently reducing the greenhouse effect not receive wide publicity by governments or the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? Answers on a yellow PostIt™ please . . .

Climate changes and the mass extinction at Permian-Triassic boundary

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The greatest mass extinction in Earth’s history at around 252 Ma ago snuffed out 81% of marine animal species, 70% of vertebrates and many invertebrates that lived on land. It is not known how many land plants were removed, but the complete absence of coals from the first 10 Ma of the Early Triassic suggests that luxuriant forests that characterised low-lying humid area in the Permian disappeared. A clear sign of the sudden dearth of plant life is that Early Triassic river sediments were no longer deposited by meandering rivers but by braided channels. Meanders of large river channels typify land surfaces with abundant vegetation whose root systems bind alluvium. Where vegetation cover is sparse, there is little to constrain river flow and alluvial erosion, and wide braided river courses develop (see: End-Permian devastation of land plants; September 2000. You can follow 21st century developments regarding the P-Tr extinction using the Palaeobiology index).

The most likely culprit was the Siberian Trap flood basalts effusion whose lavas emitted huge amounts of CO2 and even more through underground burning of older coal deposits (see: Coal and the end-Permian mass extinction; March 2011) which triggered severe global warming. That, however, is a broad-brush approach to what was undoubtedly a very complex event. Of about 20 volcanism-driven global warming events during the Phanerozoic only a few coincide with mass extinctions. Of those none comes close the devastation of ‘The Great Dying’, which begs the question, ‘Were there other factors at play 252 Ma ago?’ That there must have been is highlighted by the terrestrial extinctions having begun significantly earlier than did those in marine ecosystems, and they preceded direct evidence for climatic warming. Also temperature records – obtained from shifts in oxygen isotopes held in fossils – for that episode are widely spaced in time and tell palaeoclimatologists next to nothing about the details of the variation of air- and sea-surface temperature (SST) variations.

Modelled sea-surface temperatures in the tropics in the early stages of Siberian Trap eruptions with atmospheric CO¬2 at 857 ppm – twice today’s level. (Credit: Sun et al., Fig. 1A)

Earth at the end of the Permian was very different from its current wide dispersal of continents and multiple oceans and seas. Then it was dominated by Pangaea, a single supercontinent that stretched almost from pole to pole, and a surrounding vast ocean known as Panthalassa. Geoscientists from China, Germany, Britain and Austria used this simple palaeogeography and the available Early Triassic greenhouse-gas and  palaeo-temperature data as input to a climate prediction model (HadCM3BL) (Yadong Sun and 7 others 2024. Mega El Niño instigated the end-Permian mass extinction. Science 385, p. 1189–1195; DOI: 10.1126/science.ado2030  – contact yadong.sun@cug.edu.cn for PDF).. The computer model was developed by the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office to assess possible global outcomes of modern anthropogenic global warming. It assesses heat transport by atmospheric flow and ocean currents and their interactions. The researchers ran it for various levels of atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the estimate 100 ka duration of the P-Tr mass extinction.

The pole-to-pole continental configuration of Pangaea lends itself to equatorial El Niño and El Niña type climatic events that occur today along the Pacific coast of the Americas, known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. In the first, warm surface water builds-up in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It then then drifts westwards to allow cold surface water to flow northwards along the Pacific shore of South America to result in El Niña. Today, this climatic ‘teleconnection’ not only affects the Americas but also winds, temperature and precipitation across the whole planet. The simpler topography at the end of the Permian seems likely to have made such global cycles even more dominant.

Sun et al’s simulations used stepwise increases in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 from an estimated  412 parts per million (ppm) before the eruption of the Siberian Traps (similar to those today) to a maximum of 4000 ppm during the late-stage magmatism that set buried coals ablaze. As levels reached 857 ppm SSTs peaked at 2 °C above the mean level during El Niño events and the cycles doubled in length. Further increase in emissions led to greater anomalies that lasted longer, rising to 4°C above the mean at 4000 ppm. The El Niña cooler parts of the cycle steadily became equally anomalous and long lasting. This amplification of the 252 Ma equivalent of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation would have added to the environmental stress of an ever increasing global mean surface temperature.  The severity is clear from an animation of mean surface temperature change during a Triassic ENSO event.

Animation of monthly average surface temperatures across the Earth during an ENSO event at the height of the P-Tr mass extinction. (Credit: Alex Farnsworth, University of Bristol, UK)

The results from the modelling suggest increasing weather chaos across the Triassic Earth, with the interior of Pangaea locked in permanent drought. Its high latitude parts would undergo extreme heating and then cooling from 40°C to -40°C during the El Niño- El Niña cycles. The authors suggest that conditions on the continents became inimical for terrestrial life, which would be unable to survive even if they migrated long distances. That can explain why terrestrial extinctions at the P-Tr boundary preceded those in the global ocean. The marine biota probably succumbed to anoxia (See: Chemical conditions for the end-Permian mass extinction; November 2008)

There is a timely warning here. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is becoming stronger, although each El Niño is a mere 2 years long at most, compared with up to 8 years at the height of the P-Tr extinction event. But it lay behind the record 2023-2024 summer temperatures in both northern and southern hemispheres, the North American heatwave of June 2024 being 15°C higher than normal. Many areas are now experiencing unprecedentedly severe annual wildfires. There also finds a parallel with conditions on the fringes of Early Triassic Pangaea. During the early part of the warming charcoal is common in the relics of the coastal swamps of tropical Pangaea, suggesting extensive and repeated wildfires. Then charcoal suddenly vanishes from the sedimentary record: all that could burn had burnt to leave the supercontinent deforested.

See also: Voosen, P. 2024. Strong El Niños primed Earth for mass extinction. Science 385, p. 1151; DOI: 10.1126/science.z04mx5b; Buehler, J. 2024. Mega El Niños kicked off the world’s worst mass extinction. ScienceNews, 12 September 2024.

The ‘Anthropocene Epoch’ bites the dust?

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The International Commission on Stratigraphy (ICS) issues guidance for the division of geological history that has evolved from the science’s original approach: that was based solely on what could be seen in the field. That included: variations in lithology and the law of superposition; unconformities that mark interruptions through deformation, erosion and renewed deposition; the fossil content of sediments and the law of faunal succession; and more modern means of division, such as geomagnetic changes detected in rock over time. That ‘traditional’ approach to relative time is now termed chronostratigraphy, which has evolved since the 19th century from the local to the global scale as geological research widened its approach. Subsequent development of various kinds of dating has made it possible to suggest the actual, absolute time in the past when various stratigraphic boundaries formed – geochronology. Understandably, both are limited by the incompleteness of the geological record – and the whims of individual geologists. For decades the ICS has been developing a combination of both approaches that directly correlates stratigraphic units and boundaries with accurate geochronological ages. This is revised periodically, the ICS having a detailed protocol for making changes.  You can view the Cenozoic section of the latest version of the International Chronostratigraphic Chart and the two systems of units below. If you are prepared to travel to a lot of very remote places you can see a monument – in some cases an actual Golden Spike – marking the agreed stratigraphic boundary at the ICS-designated type section for 80 of the 93 lower boundaries of every Stage/Age in the Phanerozoic Eon. Each is a sonorously named Global Boundary Stratotype Section and Point or GSSP (see: The Time Lords of Geology, April 2013). There are delegates to various subcommissions and working groups of the ICS from every continent, they are very busy and subject to a mass of regulations …

Chronostratigraphic Chart for the Cenozoic Era showing the 5 tiers of stratigraphic time division. The little golden spikes mark where a Global Boundary Stratotype Section and Point monument has been erected at the boundary’s type section.

On 11 May 2011, the Geological Society of London hosted a conference, co-sponsored by the British Geological Survey, to discuss evidence for the dawn of a new geological Epoch: the Anthropocene, supposedly marking the impact of humans on Earth processes. There has been ‘lively debate’ about whether or not such a designation should be adopted. An Epoch is at the 4th tier of the chronostratigraphic/geochronologic systems of division, such as the Holocene, Pleistocene, Pliocene and Miocene, let alone a whole host of such entities throughout the Phanerozoic, all of which represent many orders of magnitude longer spans of time and a vast range of geological events. No currently agreed Epoch lasted less than 11.7 thousand years (the Holocene) and all the others spanned 1 Ma to tens of Ma (averaged at 14.2 Ma). Indeed, even geological Ages (the 5th tier) span a range from hundreds of thousands to millions of years (averaged at 6 Ma). Use ‘Anthropocene’ in Search Earth-logs to read posts that I have written on this proposal since 2011, which outline the various arguments for and against it.

In the third week of May 2019 the 34-member Anthropocene Working Group (AWG) of the ICS convened to decide on when the Anthropocene actually started. The year 1952 was proposed – the date when long-lived radioactive plutonium first appears in sediments before the 1962 International Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty. Incidentally, the AWG proposed a GSSP for the base of the Anthropocene in a sediment core through sediments in the bed of Crawford Lake an hour’s drive west of Toronto, Canada.   After 1952 there are also clear signs that plastics, aluminium, artificial fertilisers, concrete and lead from petrol began to increase in sediments. The AWG accepted this start date (the Anthropocene ‘golden spike’) by a 29 to 5 vote, and passed it into the vertical ICS chain of decision making. This procedure reached a climax on Monday 4 March 2024, at a meeting of the international Subcommission on Quaternary Stratigraphy (SQS): part of the ICS. After a month-long voting period, the SQS announced a 12 to 4 decision to reject the proposal to formally declare the Anthropocene as a new Epoch. Normally, there can be no appeals for a losing vote taken at this level, although a similar proposal may be resubmitted for consideration after a 10 year ‘cooling off’ period. Despite the decisive vote, however, the chair of the SQS, palaeontologist Jan Zalasiewicz of the University of Leicester, UK, and one of the group’s vice-chairs, stratigrapher Martin Head of Brock University, Canada have called for it to be annulled, alleging procedural irregularities with the lengthy voting procedure.

Had the vote gone the other way, it would marked the end of the Holocene, the Epoch when humans moved from foraging to the spread of agriculture, then the ages of metals and ultimately civilisation and written history. Even the Quaternary Period seemed under threat: the 2.5 Ma through which the genus Homo emerged from the hominin line and evolvd. Yet a pro-Anthropocene vote would have faced two more, perhaps even more difficult hurdles: a ratification vote by the full ICS, and a final one in August 2024 at a forum of the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS), the overarching body that represents all aspects of geology.  

There can be little doubt that the variety and growth of human interferences in the natural world since the Industrial Revolution poses frightening threats to civilisation and economy. But what they constitute is really a cultural or anthropological issue, rather than one suited to geological debate. The term Anthropocene has become a matter of propaganda for all manner of environmental groups, with which I personally have no problem. My guess is that there will be a compromise. There seems no harm either way in designating the Anthropocene informally as a geological Event. It would be in suitably awesome company with the Permian and Cretaceous mass extinctions, the Great Oxygenation Event at the start of the Proterozoic, the Snowball Earth events and the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum. And it would require neither special pleading nor annoying the majority of geologists. But I believe it needs another name. The assault on the outer Earth has not been inflicted by the vast majority of humans, but by a tiny minority who wield power for profit and relentless growth in production. The ‘Plutocracene’ might be more fitting. Other suggestions are welcome …

See also: Witze, A. 2024. Geologists reject the Anthropocene as Earth’s new epoch — after 15 years of debate. Nature, v. 627, News article; DOI: 10.1038/d41586-024-00675-8; Voosen, P. 2024. The Anthropocene is dead. Long live the Anthropocene. Science, v. 383, News article, 5 March 2024.

Changing Atlantic Ocean currents may threaten Gulf Stream warming of Europe

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Climate during the last Ice Age was continually erratic. Generally fine-grained muds cored from the floor of the North Atlantic Ocean show repeated occurrences of layers containing gravelly debris. These have been ascribed to periods when ice sheets on Greenland and Scandinavia calved icebergs at an exceptionally fast rate, to release coarse debris as they melted while drifting to lower latitudes. These ‘iceberg armadas’ (known as Heinrich events) left their unmistakable signs as far south as Portugal. Their timing correlates with short-lived (1 to 2 ka) warming-cooling episodes (Dansgaard-Oeschger events) recorded in Greenland ice cores that involved variations in air temperature of up to 15°C. The process that resulted in these sudden climate shifts seems to have been changing ocean circulation brought about by vast amounts of fresh water flooding into the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans. This lowered seawater density to the extent that its upper parts could not sink when cooled. It is this thermohaline circulation that drags warmer surface water northwards, known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), part of which is the Gulf Stream. When it fails or slows the result is plummeting temperatures at high latitudes. The last major AMOC shutdown was after 8 ka of warming that followed the last glacial maximum. Between 12.9 and 11.7 ka major glaciers grew again north of about 50°N in the period known as the Younger Dryas, almost certainly in the aftermath of a flood to the Arctic Ocean of glacial meltwater from the Canadian Shield. Around 8.2 thousand years ago human re-colonisation of Northern Europe was set back by a similar but lesser cooling event.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Red – warm surface currents; cyan – cold deep-water flow. (Credit: Stefano Crivellari)

Three researchers at Utrecht University, the Netherlands have issued an early warning that the AMOC may have reached a critical condition (Van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M & Dijkstra, H.A. 2024. Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course. Science Advances, v. 10, article adl1189; DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adk1189). Previous modelling of AMOC has suggested that only rapid, massive decreases in the salinity of North Atlantic surface water near the Arctic Circle could shut down the Gulf Stream in the manner of Younger Dryas and Dansgaard-Oeschger events. René van Westen and colleagues have simulated the effects of steady, long-term addition of fresh water from melting of the Greenland ice sheet. They ran a sophisticated Earth System model for six months on the Netherlands’ Snellius super computer. Their model used a slowly increasing influx of glacial meltwater to the Atlantic at high northern latitudes.

The various feedbacks in the model eventually shut down the AMOC, predicted to result in cooling of NW Europe by 10 to 15 °C in a matter of a few decades. Yet to achieve that required the model to simulate more than 2000 years of change. It took 1760 years for a persistent AMOC transport of 10 to 15 million m3 s-1 to drop over a century or so and reach near-zero. That collapse involved around 80 times more melting of Greenland’s ice sheet than at present. Yet their modelling does not take into account global warming: including that factor would have exceeded their budgeted supercomputer time by a long way. Melting of the Greenland ice sheet is, however, accelerating dramatically

Van Westen et al. have shown the possibility that steadily increasing ice-sheet melting can, theoretically, ’flip’  the huge current system associated with the Atlantic Ocean, and with it regional climate patterns. The tangible fear today is of a more than 1.5°C increase in global surface temperature, yet a warming-induced failure of AMOC may cause local annual temperatures to fall by up to ten times that. Rather than the currently heralded disappearance of sea-ice from the Arctic Ocean, it may spread in winter to as far south as the North Sea. The only way of forecasting in detail what may actually happen – and where – is ever-more sophisticated and costly modelling of ocean currents and ice melting in a warming world. Uncertain as it stands, the work by van Westen and colleagues may well be ignored: perhaps as a ‘thing we dinnae care to speak aboot’.

See also: Le Page, M. 2024. Atlantic current shutdown is a real danger, suggests simulation. New Scientist, 9 February 2024; Watts, J. 2024. Atlantic Ocean circulation nearing ‘devastating’ tipping point, study finds. The Guardian, 9 February 2024.

Why did the largest ever primate disappear?

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Chinese apothecary shops sell an assortment of fossils. They include shells of brachiopods that when ground up and dissolved in water allegedly treat rheumatism, skin diseases, and eye disorders. Traditional apothecaries also supply  ‘dragons’ teeth’, said by Dr Subhuti Dharmananda, Director of the Institute for Traditional Medicine in Portland, Oregon to treat epilepsy, madness, manic running about, binding qi (‘vital spirit’) below the heart, inability to catch one’s breath, and various kinds of spasms, as well as making the body light, enabling one to communicate with the spirit light, and lengthening one’s life. Presumably have done a roaring trade in ‘dragons’ teeth’ since they were first mentioned in a Chinese pharmacopoeia (the Shennong Bencao Jing) from the First Century of the Common Era. In 1935 the anthropologist Gustav von Koenigswald came across two ‘dragons’ teeth’ in a Hong Kong shop. They were unusually large molars and he realised they were from a primate, but far bigger (20  × 22 mm) than any from living or fossil monkeys, apes or humans.

Eventually, in 1952 (he had been interned by Japanese forces occupying Java), von Koenigswald formally described the teeth and others that he had found. Their affinities and size prompted him to call the former bearer the ‘Huge Ape’ (Gigantopithecus). By 1956 Chinese palaeontologists had tracked down the cave site in Guangxi province where the teeth had been sourced, and a local farmer soon unearthed a complete lower jawbone (mandible) that was indeed gigantic. More teeth and mandibles have since been found at several sites in Southern and Southeast Asia, with an age range from about 2.0 to 0.3 Ma. Anatomical differences between teeth and mandibles suggest that there may have been 4 different species. Using mandibles as a very rough guide to overall size it has been estimated that Gigantopithecus may have been up to 3 m tall weighing almost 600kg.

Above: Size comparison of G. blacki with a 1.8 m tall human male; NB G.blacki probably walked on all fours, as do living orangutans when they rarely descend from the forest canopy. (Credit: Frido Welker) Below: Mandible of Gigantopithecus blacki from India (Credit: Prof. Wei Wang, Photo retouched by Theis Jensen)

Plaque on some teeth contain evidence for fruit, tubers and roots, but not grasses, which suggest suggest that Gigantopithecus had a vegetarian diet based on forest plants. Mandibles also showed affinities with living and fossil orangutans (pongines). Analysis of proteins preserved in tooth enamel confirm this relationship (Welker, F. and 17 others 2019. Enamel proteome shows that Gigantopithecus was an early diverging pongine. Nature, v.576, p. 262–265; DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1728-8). It was one of the few members of the southeast Asian megafauna to go extinct at the genus level during the Pleistocene. Its close relative Pongo the orangutan survives as three species in Borneo and Sumatra. Detailed analysis of material from 22 southern Chinese caves that have yielded Gigantopithecus teeth has helped resolve that enigma (Zhang, Y. and 20 others 2024. The demise of the giant ape Gigantopithecus blacki. Nature, v. 625; DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06900-0).

At the time Gigantopithecus first appeared in the geological record of China (~2.2 Ma), it ranged over much of south-western China. The early Pleistocene ecosystem there was one of diverse forests sufficiently productive to support large numbers of this enormous primate and also the much smaller orangutan Pongo weidenreichi.  By 295 to 215 ka, the age of the last known Gigantopithecus fossils, its range had shrunk dramatically. The teeth show marked increases in size and complexity by this time, which suggests adaptation of diet to a changing ecosystem. That is confirmed by pollen analysis of cave sediments which reveal a dramatic decrease in forest cover and increases in fern and non-arboreal flora at the time of extinction. One physical sign of environmental stress suffered by individual late G. blacki is banding in their teeth defined by large fluctuations of barium and strontium concentrations relative to calcium. The bands suggest that each individual had to change its diet repeatedly over its lifetime. Closely related orangutans, on the other hand survived into the later Pleistocene of China, having adapted to the changed ecosystem, as did early humans in the area. It thus seems likely that Gigantopithecus was an extreme specialist as regards diet, and was unable to adapt to changes brought on by the climate becoming more seasonal. Today’s orangutans in Indonesia face a similar plight, but that is because they have become restricted to forest ‘islands’ in the midst of vast areas of oil palm plantations. Their original range seems to have been much the same as that of Gigantopithecus, i.e. across south-eastern Asia, but Pongo seems to have gone extinct outside of Indonesia (by 57 ka in China) during the last global cooling and when forest cover became drastically restricted.