In March 1989 an asteroid half a kilometre across passed within 500 km of the Earth at a speed of 20 km s-1. Making some assumptions about its density, the kinetic energy of this near miss would have been around 4 x 1019 J: a million times more than Earth’s annual heat production and humanity’s annual energy use; and about half the power of detonating every thermonuclear device ever assembled. Had that small asteroid struck the Earth all this energy would have been delivered in a variety of forms to the Earth System in little more than a second – the time it would take to pass through the atmosphere. The founder of “astrogeology” and NASA’s principal geological advisor for the Apollo programme, the late Eugene Shoemaker, likened the scenario to a ‘small hill falling out of the sky’. (Read a summary of what would happen during such an asteroid strike). But that would have been dwarfed by the 10 to 15 km impactor that resulted in the ~200 km wide Chicxulub crater and the K-Pg mass extinction 66 Ma ago. Evidence has been assembled for Earth having been struck during the Archaean around 3.6 billion years (Ga) ago by an asteroid 200 to 500 times larger: more like four Mount Everests ‘falling out of the sky’ (Drabon, N. et al. 2024. Effect of a giant meteorite impact on Paleoarchean surface environments and life. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, v. 121, article e2408721121; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2408721121
Impact debris layer in the Palaeoarchaean Barberton greenstone belt of South Africa, which contains altered glass spherules and fragments of older carbonaceous cherts. (Credit: Credit: Drabon, N. et al., Appendix Fig S2B)
In fact the Palaeoarchaean Era (3600 to 3200 Ma) was a time of multiple large impacts. Yet their recognition stems not from tangible craters but strata that contain once glassy spherules, condensed from vaporised rock, interbedded with sediments of Palaeoarchaean ‘greenstone belts’ in Australia and South Africa (see: Evidence builds for major impacts in Early Archaean; August 2002, and Impacts in the early Archaean; April 2014), some of which contain unearthly proportions of different chromium isotopes (see: Chromium isotopes and Archaean impacts; March 2003). Compared with the global few millimetres of spherules at the K-Pg boundary, the Barberton greenstone belt contains eight such beds up to 1.3 m thick in its 3.6 to 3.3 Ga stratigraphy. The thickest of these beds (S2) formed by an impact at around 3.26 Ga by an asteroid estimated to have had a mass 50 to 200 times that of the K-Pg impactor.
Above the S2 bed are carbonaceous cherts that contain carbon-isotope evidence of a boom in single-celled organisms with a metabolism that depended on iron and phosphorus rather than sunlight. The authors suggest that the tsunami triggered by impact would have stirred up soluble iron-2 from the deep ocean and washed in phosphorus from the exposed land surface, perhaps some having been delivered by the asteroid itself. No doubt such a huge impact would have veiled the Palaeoarchaean Earth with dust that reduced sunlight for years: inimical for photosynthesising bacteria but unlikely to pose a threat to chemo-autotrophs. An unusual feature of the S2 spherule bed is that it is capped by a layer of altered crystals whose shapes suggest they were originally sodium bicarbonate and calcium carbonate. They may represent flash-evaporation of up to tens of metres of ocean water as a result of the impact. Carbonates are less soluble than salt and more likely to crystallise during rapid evaporation of the ocean surface than would NaCl.
Time line of possible events following a huge asteroid impact during the Palaeoarchaean. (Credit: Drabon, N. et al. Fig 8)
So it appears that early extraterrestrial bombardment in the early Archaean had the opposite effect to the Chicxulub impactor that devastated the highly evolved life of the late Mesozoic. Many repeats of such chaos during the Palaeoarchaean could well have given a major boost to some forms of early, chemo-autotrophic life, while destroying or setting back evolutionary attempts at photo-autotrophy.
In 1961 ten scientists interested in a search for extra-terrestrial intelligence met at Green Bank, West Virginia, USA, none of whom were geologists or palaeontologists. The participants called themselves “The Order of the Dolphin”, inspired by the thorny challenge of discovering how small cetaceans communicated: still something of a mystery. To set the ball rolling, Frank Drake an American astrophysicist and astrobiologist, proposed an algorithm aimed at forecasting the number of planets elsewhere in our galaxy on which ‘active, communicative civilisations’ (ACCs) might live. The Drake Equation is formulated as:
ACCs = R* · fp · ne · fl · fi · fc · L
where R* = number of new stars formed per year, fp = the fraction of stars with planetary systems, ne = the average number of planets that could support life (habitable planets) per planetary system, fl = the fraction of habitable planets that develop primitive life, fi = the fraction of planets with life that evolve intelligent life and civilizations, fc = the fraction of civilizations that become ACCs,L = the length of time that ACCs broadcast radio into space. A team of then renowned scientists from several disciplines discussed what numbers to attach to these parameters. Their ‘educated guesses’ were: R* – one star per year; fp – one fifth to one half of all stars will have planets; ne – 1 to 5 planets per planetary system will be habitable; of which 100% will develop life (fl) and 100% (fi) will eventually develop intelligent life and civilisations; of those civilisations 10 to 20 % (fc) will eventually develop radio communications; which will survive for between a thousand years and 100 Ma (L). Acknowledging the great uncertainties in all the parameters, Drake inferred that between 103 and 108 ACCs exist today in the Milky Way, which is ~100 light years across and contains 1 to 4 x 1011 stars).
Today the values attached to the parameters and the outcomes seem absurdly optimistic to most people, simply because, despite 4 decades of searching by SETI there have been no signs of intelligible radio broadcasts from anywhere other than Earth and space probes launched from here. This is humorously referred to as the Fermi Paradox. There are however many scientists who still believe that we are not alone in the galaxy, and several have suggested reasons why nothing has yet been heard from ACCs. Robert Stern of the University of Texas (Dallas), USA and Taras Gerya of ETH-Zurich, Switzerland have sought clues from the history of life on Earth and that of the inorganic systems from which it arose and in which it has evolved that bear on the lack of any corrigible signals in the 63 years since the Drake Equation (Stern, R.J & Gerya, T.V. 2024. The importance of continents, oceans and plate tectonics for the evolution of complex life: implications for finding extraterrestrial civilizations. Nature (Scientific Reports), v. 14, article 8552; DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-54700-x – definitely worth reading). Of course, Stern and Gerya too are fascinated by the scientific question as to whether or not there are ‘active, communicative civilisations’ elsewhere in the cosmos. Their starting point is that the Drake Equation is either missing some salient parameters, or that those it includes are assigned grossly optimistic magnitudes.
Life seems to have been present on Earth 3.8 Ga ago but multicelled animals probably arose only in the Late Neoproterozoic since 1.0 Ga ago. So here it has taken a billion years for their evolution to achieve terrestrial ACC-hood. Stern and Gerya address what processes favour life and its rapid evolution. Primarily, life depends on abundant liquid water: i.e. on a planet within the ‘Goldilocks Zone’ around a star. The authors assume a high supply of bioactive compounds – organic carbon, ammonium, ferrous iron and phosphate to watery environments. Phosphorus is critical to their scenario building. It is most readily supplied by weathering of exposed continental crust, but demands continual exposure of fresh rock by erosion and river transport to maintain a steady supply to the oceans. Along with favourable climatic conditions, that can only be achieved by an oxidising environment that followed the Great Oxidation Event (2.4 to 2.1 Ga) and continual topographic rejuvenation by plate tectonics.
A variety of Earth-logs posts have discussed various kinds of evidence for the likely onset of plate tectonics, largely focussing on the Hadean and Archaean. Stern and Gerya prefer the Proterozoic Eon that preserves more strands of relevant evidence, from which sea-floor spreading, subduction and repeated collision orogenies can confidently be inferred. All three occur overwhelmingly in Neoproterozoic and Phanerozoic times. Geologists often refer to the whole of the Mesoproterozoic and back to about 2.0 Ga in the Palaeoproterozoic as the ‘Boring Billion’ during which carbon isotope data suggest very little change in the status of living processes: they were present but nothing dramatic happened after the Great Oxidation Event. ‘Hard-rock’ geology also reveals far less passive extensional events that indicate continental break-up and drift than occur after 1.0 Ga and to the present. It also includes a unique form of magmatism that formed rocks dominated by sodium-rich feldspar (anorthosites) and granites that crystallised from water-poor magmas. They are thought to represent build-ups of heat in the mantle unrelieved by plate-tectonic circulation. Before the ‘Boring Billion’ such evidence as there is does point to some kind of plate motions, if not in the modern style.
How different styles of tectonics influence living processes differently: a single stagnant ‘lid’ versus plate tectonics. (Credit: Stern and Gerya, Fig 2)
Stern and Gerya conclude that the ‘Boring Billion’ was dominated by relative stagnation in the form of lid tectonics. They compare the influence of stagnant ‘lid’ tectonics on life and evolution with that of plate tectonics in terms of: bioactive element supply; oxygenation; climate control; habitat formation; environmental pressure (see figure). In each case single lid tectonics is likely to retard life and evolution, whereas plate tectonics stimulates them as it has done from the time of Snowball Earth and throughout the Phanerozoic. Only one out of 8 planets that orbit the sun displays plate tectonics and has both oceans and continents. Could habitable planets be a great deal rarer than Drake and his pals assumed? [look at exoplanets in Wikipedia] Whatever, Stern and Gerya suggest that the seemingly thwarted enthusiasm surrounding the Drake Equation needs to be tempered by the addition of two new terms: the fraction of habitable exoplanets with significant continents and oceans (foc)and the fraction of them that have experienced plate tectonics for at least half a billion years (fpt). They estimate foc to be on the order of 0.0002 to 0.01, and suggest a value for fpt of less than 0.17. Multiplied together yields value between less than 0.00003 and 0.002. Their incorporation in the Drake Equation drastically reduces the potential number of ACCs to between <0.006 and <100,000, i.e. to effectively none in the Milky Way galaxy rising to a still substantial number
There are several other reasons to reject such ‘ball-parking’ cum ‘back-of-the-envelope’ musings. For me the killer is that biological evolution can never be predicted in advance. What happened on our home world is that the origin and evolution of life have been bound up with the unique inorganic evolution of the Solar System and the Earth itself over more than 4.5 billion years. That ranges in magnitude from the early collision with another, Mars-sized world that reset the proto-Earth’s geochemistry and created a large moon whose gravity has cycled the oceans through tides and changed the length of the day continually for almost the whole of geological history. At least once, at the end of the Cretaceous Period, a moderately sized asteroid in unstable orbit almost wiped out life at an advanced stage in its evolution. During the last quarter billion years internally generated geological forcing mechanisms have repeatedly and seriously stressed the biosphere in roughly 36 Ma cycles (Boulila, S. et al. 2023. Earth’s interior dynamics drive marine fossil diversity cycles of tens of millions of years. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, v. 120 article e2221149120; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2221149120). Two outcomes were near catastrophic mass extinctions, at the ends of the Permian and Triassic Periods, from which life struggled to continue. As well as extinctions, such ‘own goals’ reset global ecosystems repeatedly to trigger evolutionary diversification based on the body plans of surviving organisms.
Such unique events have been going on for four billion years, including whatever triggered the Snowball Earth episodes that accompanied the Great Oxygenation Event around 2.4 Ga and returned to coincide with the rise of multicelled animals during the Cryogenian and Ediacaran Periods of the Late Neoproterozoic. For most of the Phanerozoic a background fibrillation of gravitational fields in the Solar System has occasionally resulted in profound cycling between climatic extremes and their attendant stresses on ecosystems and their occupants. The last of these coincided with the evolution of humanity: the only creator of an active, communicative civilisation of which we know anything. But it took four billion years of a host of diverse vagaries, both physical and biological to make such a highly unlikely event possible. That known history puts the Drake Equation firmly in its place as the creature of a bunch of self-publicising and regarding, ambitious academics who in 1961 basically knew ‘sweet FA’. I could go on … but the wealth of information in Stern and Gerya’s work is surely fodder for a more pessimistic view of other civilisations in the cosmos.
Someone – I forget who – provided another, very practical reason underlying the lack of messages from afar. It is not a good idea to become known to all and sundry in the galaxy, for fear that others might come to exploit, enslave and/or harvest. Earth is still in a kind of imperialist phase from which lessons could be drawn!
The environment that humans inhabit is better described as the Earth System, for a good reason. Every part of our planet, the living and the seemingly inert, from the core to the outermost atmosphere, is and always has been interacting with all the others in one way or another. Earth-logs aims to express that, as does my recently revised and now free book Stepping Stones. The vagaries of the Earth’s climate present good examples, the most obvious being the role of chemistry in the form of atmospheric greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide, and their interaction with other parts of the Earth System.
Carbon and oxygen atoms that make up CO2 are also present in dissolved form in rain, freshwater and the oceans as the dissolved gas itself, carbonic acid (H2CO3) and the soluble bicarbonate ion HCO3–, in proportions that depend on water temperature and acidity (pH). Those forms make the oceans an extremely large ‘sink’ for carbon; i.e. CO2 in dissolved form is removed from the atmospheric greenhouse effect. In the short term, there is a rough balance because water bodies also emit CO2, particularly when they heat up.
Phytoplankton bloom in the Channel off SW England (Landsat image)
Carbon dioxide enters more resilient forms through the marine part of the biosphere, at the base of which is photosynthesising phytoplankton. Photosynthesisers ‘sequester’ CO2 from the oceans as various carbohydrates in their soft tissue. Some of them use bicarbonate ions to form calcium carbonate in shells or tests. Once the organisms die both their soft and hard parts may end up buried in ocean-floor sediments: a longer-term sink. How much carbon is buried in these two forms depends on whether bacteria break down the soft tissues by oxidation and on the acidity of water that tends to dissolve the carbonate. Both processes ultimately yield dissolved CO2 that returns to the atmosphere.
Even the simplest phytoplankton cannot live on carbon dioxide and water alone: they need nutrients. The most familiar to any gardener are nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium. These are mainly supplied in runoff from the continents; although marine upwellings supply large amounts where deep ocean water is forced to the surface. Large tracts in the central parts of the oceans are, in effect, marine deserts whose biological productivity is very low. Surprisingly this is not because of severe shortages of N, P and K. This is because a key nutrient, albeit a minor one, is missing; dissolved iron that phytoplankton and ocean fertility in general depend on. This was discovered in the 1970s by US oceanographer John Martin. Just how important iron is to fertility of the oceans and to global climate emerged from studies of ice cores from the Antarctic ice sheet. Air bubbles in the myriad annual layers reveal that their CO2 content falls with each change in oxygen isotopes related to the periodic build up of polar ice caps during cold periods. The greenhouse effect diminished as a result during each stadial, for the simple reason that up to a third of all atmospheric carbon dioxide – about 200 billion tonnes – was withdrawn. The clearest of these are at the last glacial maximum and during the rapid build up glacial ice between 70 and 60 thousand years ago; a time of low sea level when a major ‘out-of-Africa’ human migration took place. A possible candidate for achieving this could have been massively increased ocean fertility and the burial of dead phytoplankton and their shells.
Analyses of Antarctic ice cores record fluctuations in atmospheric CO2 trapped in bubbles during the last ice age (top) and how iron-rich dust deposition onto the ice increased hugely during two major cold periods (bottom) – the last glacial maximum (35 to 18 ka) and between 70 and 60 ka. (Credit, Stoll; Fig. 1)
During stadials the ice cores also reveal that a great deal more dust found its way from the continents to the polar ice sheets. Analysing the dusty layers showed that to have included lots of iron. Falling into the cold ocean-surface waters around the polar regions would have added this crucial nutrient to a medium already rich in CO2 – the colder water is the more gas it will dissolve. These distant oceans bloomed with phytoplankton, speeding up the sequestration of carbon into ocean-floor sediments. Iron may have triggered a biological pump of gargantuan proportions that amplified ice-age cooling. Today the remotest parts of the world’s oceans are starved of iron so the pump only functions in a few places where iron is supplied by rivers or upwellings of deep ocean water
The marine biosphere is clearly a very important active component in the Earth’s climate subsystem. Climate’s continually changing interactions with the rest of the Earth System make climate change hugely complex. It is difficult to predict but growing understanding of its past behaviour is helpful. The late John Martin’s hypothesis of the effects on climate of changing iron concentrations in surface ocean water has a corollary: the stronger the biological pump the more oxygen in deep water must be used up in bacterial decay of descending organic matter. Indeed it was as recent estimates of the degree of oxygenation in ocean-sediment layers correlate with changes in climate that they also reveal.
So, would deliberate iron-fertilisation of polar oceans help draw down greenhouse warming? When several small patches of the Southern Ocean were injected with a few tonnes of dissolved iron they did indeed respond with phytoplankton blooms. However, it is impossible to tell if that had any effect on the atmosphere. ‘Going for broke’ with a massive fertilisation of this kind has been proposed, but this ventures dp into the political swamp that currently surrounds global warming and the wider environment. It is becoming possible to model such a strategy by using the data from the experiments and from ice cores, and early results seem to confirm the role of iron and the biological pump in CO2 sequestration by suggesting that half the known draw-down during ice ages can be explained in this way.
Earth-logs 