Geologists who study turbidites assume that the distinctive graded beds from which they are constructed and a range of other textures represent flows of slurry down unstable steep slopes when submarine sediment deposits are displaced. Such turbidity currents were famously recorded by the severing of 12 transatlantic telecommunication cables off Newfoundland in 1929. This happened soon after an earthquake triggered 100 km hr-1 flows down the continental slope, which swept some 600 km eastwards.
Typical structures in Upper Carboniferous turbidites near Bude, Cornwall, UK (credit: Flickr, Earthwatcher)
Sea beds at destructive margins provide the right conditions for repeated turbidity currents and it is reasonable to suppose that patterns should emerge from the resulting turbidite beds that in some way record the seismic history of the area. British and Indonesian geoscientists set out to test that hypothesis at the now infamous plate margin off Sumatra that hosted the great Acheh Earthquake and tsunamis of 26 December 2004 to kill 250 thousand people around the rim of the Indian Ocean (Sumner, E.J. et al. 2013. Can turbidites be used to reconstruct a paleoearthquake record for the central Sumatra margin? Geology, v. 41, p.763-766).
Animation of Indonesian tsunami of 26 December 2004 (credit: Wikipedia)
Cores through turbidite sequences along a 500 km stretch of the margin formed the basis for this important attempt to test the possibility of recording long-term seismic statistics. To avoid false signals from turbidity currents stirred up by storms, floods and slope failure from rapid sediment build-up 17 sites were cored in deep water away from major terrestrial sediment supplies, which only flows triggered by major earthquakes would be likely to reach. To calibrate core depth to time involved a variety of radiometric and stratigraphic methods
Disappointingly, few of the sites on the submarine slopes recorded turbidites that match events during the 150-year period of seismic records in the area, none being correlatable with the 2004 and 2005 great earthquakes. Indeed very little correlation of distinctive textures from site to site emerged from the study. Some sites on slopes revealed no turbidites at all from the last 150 years, whereas turbidites in others that could be accurately dated occurred when there were no large earthquakes. Only cores from the deep submarine trench consistently preserved near-surface turbidites that might record the 2004 and 2005 great earthquakes.
These are surprising as well as depressing results, but perhaps further coring will discover what kind of bathymetric features might yield useful and consistent seismic records from sediments.
Review of Fracking Issues posted on 31 May 2013 briefly commented on a major academic study of the impact of shale gas exploitation on groundwater. The 12 July 2013 issue of Science follows this up with a similar online, extensive treatment of how underground disposal of fracking fluids might influence seismicity in new gas fields (Ellsworth, W.J. 2013. Injection-induced earthquakes. Science, v. 341, p. 142 and doi: 10.1126/science.1225942) plus a separate paper on the same topic (van der Elst, N.J. et al. 2013. Enhanced remote earthquake triggering at fluid-injection sites in the Midwestern United States. Science, v. 341, p.164-167).
Major shale gas basins (credit: Wikipedia)
It was alarm caused by two minor earthquakes (<3 local magnitude) that alerted communities on the Fylde peninsula and in the seaside town of Blackpool to worrisome issues connected to Cuadrilla Resources’ drilling of exploratory fracking wells. These events were put down to the actual hydraulic fracturing taking place at depth. Such low-magnitude seismic events pose little hazard but nuisance. The two reports in Science look at longer-term implications associated with regional shale-gas development. All acknowledge that the fluids used for hydraulic fracturing need careful disposal because of their toxic hazards. The common practice in the ‘mature’ shale-gas fields in the US is eventually to dispose of the fluids by injecting them into deep aquifers, which Vidic et al. suggested that ‘due diligence’ in such injection of waste water should ensure limited leakage into shallow domestic groundwater.
The studies, such as that by William Ellsworth, of connection between deep waste-water injection and seismicity are somewhat less reassuring. From 1967 to 2001 the central US experienced a steady rate of earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 3.0, which can be put down to the natural background of seismicity in the stable lithosphere of mid North America. In the last 12 years activity at this energy level increased significantly, notably in areas underlain by targets for shale-gas fracking such as the Marcellus Shale of the north-eastern US. The increase coincides closely with the history of shale-gas development in the US. The largest such event (5.6 local magnitude) destroyed 14 homes in Oklahoma near to such a waste-injection site. Raising the fluid pressure weakens faults in the vicinity thereby triggering them to fail, even if their tectonic activity ceased millions of years ago: many retain large elastic strains dependent on rock strength.
Apart from the mid-continent New Madrid seismic zone associated with a major fault system parallel to the Mississippi, much of the central US is geologically simple with vast areas of flat-bedded sediments with few large faults. The same cannot be said for British geology which is riven with major faults formed during the Caledonian and Variscan orogenies, some of which in southern Britain were re-activated by tectonics associated with the Alpine events far off in southern Europe. Detailed geological maps show surface-breaking faults everywhere, whereas deep coal mining records and onshore seismic reflection surveys reveal many more at depth. A greater population density living on more ‘fragile’ geology may expect considerably more risk from industrially induced earthquakes, should Britain’s recently announced ‘dash’ for shale gas materialise to the extent that its sponsors hope for.
Nicholas van der Elst and colleagues’ paper indicates further cause for alarm. They demonstrate that large remote earthquakes. In the 10 days following the 11 March 2011 Magnitude 9.0 Sendai earthquake a swarm of low-energy events took place around waste injection wells in central Texas, to be followed 6 months later by a larger one (4.5 local magnitude). Similar patterns of injection-related seismicity followed other distant great earthquakes between 2010 and 2012. Other major events seem not to have triggered local responses. The authors claim that the pattern of earth movements produced by such global triggering might be an indicator of whether or not fluid injection has brought affected fault systems to a critical state. That may be so, but it seems little comfort to know that one’s home, business or community is potentially to be shattered by intrinsically avoidable seismic risk.
The release and exploitation of natural gas from shales using the unconventional means of in situhydraulic fracturing – ‘fracking’ – has had plenty of bad press, including some hammering in Earth Pages. Now, what seems to be a balanced academic review has appeared on-line in Science magazine (Vidic, R.D. et al. 2013. Impact of shale gas development on regional water quality. Science, v. 340, DOI: 10.1126/science.1235009). The review focuses on hazards to groundwater resources from a variety of environmental effects, primarily gas migration, contaminant transport through induced and natural fractures, wastewater discharge, and accidental spills.
Protests against shale gas drilling in Bulgaria (credit: Wikipedia)
Much attention has centred on faulty seals put in place to stop gas escaping from drill targets. Yet fewer than 3% of seals are said to have proved problematic, with some finger-pointing at natural gas leakage from the hydrocarbon-rich shales. After all, there are plenty of natural fractures and completely ‘tight’ stratigraphic sequences are rare. in fact toxic effects of natural gas leakage on surface vegetation have been widely used as exploration indicators for conventional petroleum. The review does point out that there are so few pre-drilling studies of natural leakage that this controversy – including widely publicised blazing household water supplies – can not yet be resolved. Obviously more independent monitoring of areas above prospective shales are essential; but who will fund them? The one well-documented before-and-after study, from 48 water wells in Pennsylvania, USA, showed no change, though it seems that monitoring after fracking was short-lived.
The chemically-charged water used to induce the hydrofracturing obviously leaves an unmistakable mark when leaks occur, and there have been cases of considerable environmental release. The fluids are indeed a wicked brew of acids, organic thickeners, biocides, alkalis and inorganic surfactants, to name but a few infredients. To some extent re-use of such fluids, which are costly, ought to mitigate risks. However, once a shale-gas field is fully developed, large volumes of the fracking fluids remain in the subsurface and may leak into shallow groundwater sources. But what pathways do these fluids follow when they are pumped into shales under very high pressure? The review warns of the lesson of toxic fluid leakage from underground coal mines.
The University of Pittsburgh team who compiled the review usefully outline why shale gas is both profitable and feasible. They deal with what methane does in an environmental chemistry sense. It isn’t a solvent, so carries no other materials such as toxic ions, but its interaction with bacteria creates reducing conditions. A now well-known hazard of subsurface reduction is dissolution of iron hydroxide, naturally an important component of many rocks, that can adsorb a great range of dangerous ions at potentially high concentrations, including those involving arsenic. Reductive dissolution lets such ions loose into natural waters, even at shallow depths. Yet methane is emitted by a host of sources other than hydrocarbon-rich shale: landfill; swamps; other bacterial action; conventional petroleum fields both active and abandoned; and even deep water boreholes themselves. A recent study of groundwater geochemistry in relation to fracking in Arkansas, USA (Warner, N.R. et al. 2013. Geochemical and isotopic variations in shallow groundwater in areas of the Fayetteville shale development, north-central Arkansas. Applied Geochemistry, v. 33, doi/10.1016/j.apgeochem.2013.04.013) does address changes in groundwater chemistry, but not for all the ions cited by the WHO as potential hazards.
Whereas the mechanisms involved in vertical and lateral migration of subsurface fluids are well understood there is little knowledge of natural structural features such as deep jointing, fractures and fault fragmentation that control actual migration from area to area. The use of natural seepage as an exploration guide was largely abandoned when many studies showing apparently high-priority targets proved to be far removed from the actual source of the moving fluids. The most easily investigated route for leakage is the actual ‘plumbing’ that fracking uses. This is held together by cement that high pressures can disrupt before it sets, resulting in leaks. A lot depends on ‘due diligence’ deployed by the contractors, whose regulation can leave a lot to be desired. Vidic and colleagues devote most space to the matter of wastewater and deep formation water, yet make little if any case for routine geochemical monitoring of domestic groundwater supplies in shale-gas fields. Much is directed at the industry itself rather than independent surveys.
Much attention has centred on fracking shales to release otherwise locked-in gas, while production of liquid petroleum by the same kind of process is also increasing with little publicity, especially in the US. From a purely economic standpoint wells that yield oil and gas from fractured shale might seem to be quite a boon. Well, they probably are, if the gas can be sold. One of the biggest shale-oil targets is the Late Devonian to Early Carboniferous Bakken Shale in the Williston Basin that stretches across 360 thousand km2‑ beneath parts of the Dakotas, Wyoming and Montana in the US and Saskatchewan in Canada. This shale is the source rock for most of the conventional oil production from the Williston basin since the 1940s. At the start of the 21st century direct production of oil from the Bakken began in North Dakota, unleashing a major drilling boom and a ten-fold increase in land-leases for production. The state is now the second largest US oil producer after Alaska warranting a major feature National Geographic. Trouble is North Dakota is not well served by pipelines of any kind and oil is shipped by rail, much as it was in the early days of the US oil industry.
Typical natural gas flare with black-carbon plume (credit: Wikipedia)
The natural gas released by fracking is simply wasted, partly by flaring at the wellhead but an unknown volume of pure methane is simply vented to the atmosphere. At rough 25 times the greenhouse warming capacity of CO2 the perverted economics of waste methane is, unsurprisingly, becoming scandalous and increasingly dangerous. Such is the magnitude of shale-gas production in the US the price of natural gas has fallen dramatically so that from the Williston Basin simply carries no profit and therefore has nowhere to go except up in flames or directly to the air. The US Environmental Protection Agency apparently can do little to halt the venting. British onshore source rocks, such as the Upper Jurassic Kimmeridge Shale, which has a hydrocarbon content up to 70% and is regarded as the most important rock in Europe being the source for much of the petroleum beneath the North Sea and other oil provinces, are likely targets for fracking now the UK government has given the go-ahead in a new ‘dash for gas’. Chances are it may become a dash for onshore shale-oil .
Manganese nodules finally tagged for production
Manganese nodules taken from the bottom of the Pacific. (credit: Wikipedia)
Almost 40 years ago my desk was almost buried under tomes of information about dull black nodules looking like blighted potatoes as I worked on the now abandoned Level-2 Open University course on The Earth’s Physical Resources. Made mainly out of manganese and iron minerals they also contain ore-grade amounts of nickel, copper and cobalt together with other metals. Were they beneath the crust they would be mined eagerly, but such manganese nodules litter vast areas at the surface of the oceans’ abyssal plains. Such was their potential that around half a billion dollars was spent on oceanographic and geochemical surveys to map the richest nodule fields. Part of the attraction at a time when the non-renewable nature of conventional metal deposits was touted as a threat to civilisation as we know it, as in The Limits to Growth, was that the nodules were zoned and clearly growing: they appear to be renewable metal resources.
Mining them is likely to be hugely costly: they will have to be dredged or sucked-up from the deep ocean basins; intricate metallurgical methods are needed to separate and smelt the paying metals and the risks of deep-sea pollution are obvious. As with shale gas, the UK Tory premier David Cameron has leapt onto Lockheed Martin UK’s announcement that it is finally profitable to get at the nodules, in the manner of the proverbial ‘rat up a drainpipe’. Cameron believes that the venture to harvest one of the most metalliferous patches on the east Pacific floor off Mexico may rake the UK’s economic potatoes out of the fire to the tune of US$60 billion over the next 30 years. Lockheed Martin is an appropriate leader in this scramble having designed some of the equipment aboard a ship financed by Howard Hughes, the 50 thousand tonne Glomar Explorer. A curious vessel, the Glomar Explorer was widely publicised in the mid-70s as the flagship for a manganese nodule pilot project. In fact it was built to snaffle a Soviet submarine (K-129) and its contents of codebooks, technical equipment and nuclear missiles that sank to the abyssal plains in the Pacific about 2500 km to the north-west of Hawaii. It did grapple the submarine, some cryptographic equipment, a couple of nuclear tipped torpedoes and six of the dead crew members. It is still operational, but as an ultra-deep water drill rig.
We will have to wait to see if nodule mining is a ‘go-er’, and very little information has emerged about methodology. The target metal is probably nickel with its importance in rechargeable batteries, plus rare-earth metals that are in notoriously short supply. Whether or not raking, dredging or sucking-up the nodules will have insupportable environmental impact depends on the amount of on-board processing; the nodules themselves are pretty much insoluble. Extracting and separating the metals will probably involve some kind of solution chemistry rather than the beneficiation common in most on-shore metal mines. Such hydrometallurgy has considerable potential for pollution, unless the raw nodules are shipped to shoreline facilities, at a hefty cost. One thing occurred to me while writing about manganese nodules as a major resource was that their blends of metals would not match the proportions actually required in commerce. On a grand scale their exploitation could well play havoc with currently booming metal prices and drive on-shore mining to the wall. But, to be frank, I think this is a bit of tropical sea-bed bubble fraught with legal tangles connected with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
The start of 2013 saw a massive puff from the British government for development of shale gas, Premier David Cameron crying ‘Britain must be at the heart of the shale gas revolution’. Fearful of the rapidly growing shift from Britain’s natural-gas self reliance to dependence on the Gulf, Russia and Norway the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition gave the green light for ‘frack drilling’ to restart. This followed a pause following seismicity in the Blackpool area that attended Cuadrilla’s exploratory drilling into the gas-rich Carboniferous Bowland Shale thereabouts. There is also a nice sweetener for the new industry in the form of tax breaks.
Boris Johnson holds a model London red bus (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
London Mayor Boris Johnson, a possible contender for Tory leadership, seems pleased. And perhaps he should be, as the Lib-Con coalition will be tested because the junior partners depend electorally, to some extent, on ‘green’ credentials. The Lib-Dem Energy Minister, Ed Davey, seemingly favours an automatic halt to drilling should there be seismicity greater than 0.5 on the Richter scale; an energy level less than experienced every day in London from its Underground trains. Political commentators have forecast that green issues may exacerbate tensions within the coalition in the second half of its scheduled 5-year term, especially as the electorate seems set to reduce the Liberal Democrat partners to irrelevance in future elections.
Natural gas’s biggest ‘green’ plus is that being a hydrocarbon its burning releases considerably less CO2 than does its coal energy equivalent, the hydrogen content becoming water vapour. Yet the dominant gas is methane, which has a far larger greenhouse effect than the CO2 released by its burning. To avoid that presenting increased atmospheric warming, extracting natural gas needs to avoid leakage. Unfortunately for those bawling lustily about the economic potential of fracking source rocks such as the Bowland Shale, recent aerial surveys over US gas fields will come as a major shock. At the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in early December 2012 methane emissions from two large gas fields in the western US were released (Tollefson, J. 2013. Methane leaks erode green credentials of natural gas. Nature, v. 493, p. 12). They amount to 9% of total production, which would more than offset the climatic ‘benefit’ of using natural gas as a coal alternative.
A shift from coal to natural gas-fuelled power generation would slow down climatic warming, if leakage is kept below the modest level of 3.2% of production. So if the latest measurements are an unavoidable norm for gas fields then natural gas burning in fact increases global warming. Even more telling is that, until the shale ‘fracking revolution’, gas was produced by drilling into permeable reservoir rocks capped by a seal rock – usually a shale. The gas would not have leaked except from the well itself. Fracking, by design, increases the permeability of what would otherwise be a seal rock – hydrocarbon-rich shale – over a large area.
Schematic cross-section illustrating types of natural gas deposits (credit: Wikipedia)
Aerial analyses to check emissions over oil and gas fields, let alone over shale-gas operations, are not widespread. However, the technology is not new. Where emissions are strictly enforced in populated areas, as over oil terminals and refineries, overflights to sample the air have been routine for several decades. Little mention is made of such precautionary measures in the promotion of fracking.
Another point is that as well as often being far from habitations, US shale-gas operations are generally into simple stratigraphy and structure. The Lower Carboniferous Bowland Shale now being touted as fuel for Britain’s escape from a descent into economic depression, with its estimated 200 trillion cubic feet of as potential, is intensely faulted and broadly folded, having experienced the Variscan orogeny at the end of the Palaeozoic Era. The complexity and pervasiveness of this brittle deformation is amply shown by geological maps of former coalfields that incorporate subsurface information from mine workings. The Bowland Shale lies below the Upper Carboniferous Coal Measures, many of the likely targets for fracking have never been subject to intensive underground mining simply because the Coal Measures were eroded away tens of million years ago. Consequently the degree to which many fracking targets may be riven by surface-breaking faults and fracture zones is not and possibly never will be known in the detail needed to assess widespread methane leakage.
Sometime in early 2013, the British Geological Survey is set to release estimates of the Bowland Shale gas reserves, in which its detailed mapping archives will have played the major role. That report will bear detailed scrutiny as regards the degree to which it also assesses potential leakage.
Artist’s depiction of the asteroid impact 65 million years ago that caused the K-T mass extinction. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Just in time for the festive season I have been sent the URL for an on-line impact simulator written by a team from Imperial College London and the University of Arizona (Collins, G.S. et al. 2005. Earth Impact Effects Program: A Web-based computer program for calculating the regional environmental consequences of a meteoroid impact on Earth. Meteoritics and Planetary Science, v. 40, p. 817–840), with a web presence designed at Purdue University, Indiana. ImpactEarth (http://www.purdue.edu/impactearth/) has been around for two years and has a scientifically pleasing level of precision, thanks to the authors, Gareth Collins, Jay Melosh and Robert Marcus.
The fact that the target shown by the accompanying animation and other graphics seems to be the Washington-New York megalopolis may be a cause for some concern for US readers, especially the Department of Homeland Security, National Security Agency and CIA. They can rest easy, however, as this seems to be a matter of artistic license: the choice of parameters allows for ocean strikes and targets of sedimentary or crystalline rocks. Others are impactor diameter and density, impact angle and speed, plus distance from ground zero. An element of whimsy allows the casual user to choose inbound humpback whales, school buses and the Empire State Building as well as more astronomically likely scenarios.
There are a number of missing parameters such as direction relative to Earth’s rotation, latitude and the likely affect of an ice-cap strike, and no mention in the results of the electromagnetic burst from atmospheric compression on entry – the Diesel effect. However, the thermal effects on bystanders, buildings and vegetation at the ‘viewpoint’ personalise the experience to some extent. It is the detail about crater dimensions and evolution, lithospheric melting and what might happen to the Earth’s axial tilt and day length that the wealth of computations produce surprises. It is not easy to destroy our planet: using a body with a density of 3000 kg m-3 and the diameter of Asia causes no significant melting or changes in axial tilt at speeds less than 12 km s-1, but does change the length of the day by up to 113 hours. This is because the power of impacts and therefore the work done by them is proportional to the square of the speed. Mind you, nothing is left standing as the seismic effect has a Richter Magnitude of more than 15! Yet, curiously, no atmospheric or thermal radiation effects are noted.
Gas hydrate (methane clathrate) block embedded in seabed sediment (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
The biggest tsunami to affect inhabitants of Britain, mentioned in the earlier post Landslides and multiple dangers, emanated from the Storegga Slide in the northern North Sea west of Norway. That submarine debris flow was probably launched by gas hydrates beneath the sea bed breaking down to release methane thereby destabilising soft sediments on the continental slope. Similar slides were implicated in breaking Europe-America communications in the 20th century, such as the Grand Banks Slide of 1929 that severed submarine cables up to 600 km from the source of the slide. Even now, much Internet traffic is carried across oceans along optic-fibre cables, breakages disrupting and slowing services. A more mysterious facet of clathrate breakdown is its possible implication in unexplained and sudden losses of ships. When gas escapes to the surface, the net density of seawater decreases, the more so as the proportion of bubbles increases. Ship design and cargo loading rests on an assumed water density range from fresh to salt water and for different temperatures at high and low latitudes.
Gulf stream map (credit: Wikipedia)
The Atlantic seaboard of the USA hosts some of the best-studied accumulations of clathrates in the top 100-300 m of seabed sediments. Since their discovery these ‘cage complexes’ of mainly methane and carbon dioxide trapped within molecules of water ice have been studied in detail. Importantly, the temperatures at which they form and the range over which they remain stable depend on pressure and therefore depth below the sea surface. At atmospheric pressure solid methane hydrate is unstable at any likely temperature and requires -20°C to form at a pressure equivalent to 200 m water depth. Yet is stable at temperatures up to 10°C 500 m down and 20°C at a depth of 2 km. Modern sea water cools to around 0°C at depths greater than 1.5 km, so gas hydrates can form virtually anywhere that there is a source of methane or CO2 in seafloor sediment. In the sediments temperature increases sharply with depth beneath the seabed due to geothermal heat flow thereby limiting the clathrate stability zone to the top few hundred metres.
Two factors may lead to clathrate instability: falling sea level and sea-floor pressure or rising sea-floor temperature. Many gas-hydrate deposits, especially on the continental shelf and continental edge are likely to be close to their stability limits, hence the worries about destabilisation should global warming penetrate through the water column. The western North Atlantic is an area of especial concern because the Gulf Stream flows northward from the Caribbean to pass close to the US seaboard off the Carolinas: that massive flow of tropical warm water has been increasing during the last 5 thousand years so that its thermal effects are shifting westwards.
Geophysicists Benjamin Phrampus and Matthew Hornbach of the Southern Methodist University in Dallas, Texas have used thermal modelling to predict that gas-hydrate instability is imminent across 10 thousand square kilometres of the Caroline Rise (Phrampus, B.J. & Hornbach, M.J. 2012. Recent changes to the Gulf Stream causing widespread gas hydrate destabilization. Nature, v. 490, p. 527-530). As a test they analysed two seismic reflection profiles across the Carolina Rise, seeking anomalies known as bottom-simulating reflectors that signify free gas in the sediments. These are expected at the base of the gas-hydrate zone and their presence helps assess sediment temperature. At depths less than 1 km the base of the gas-hydrates modelled from the present temperature profile through the overlying seawater lies significantly above the base’s signature on seismic lines. The deeper levels probably formed under cooler conditions than now – probably eight degrees cooler – and may be unstable. If that is correct, the Caroline Rise area seems set to release around 2.5 Gt of methane to add to atmospheric greenhouse warming. The Storegga Slide also lies close to the northern track of the Gulf-Stream – North Atlantic Drift…
A landslide in Guerrero, Mexico in August, 1989. (credit: Wikipedia)
Just as modern humans were establishing a permanent foothold in Britain and engaging in the transition to settled farming and livestock husbandry disaster struck some of the most attractive Mesolithic real estate. Around 8 000 years ago the east coast of Scotland, from the Shetland Isles to the Firth of Forth, was struck by a tsunami as big as that affecting the north eastern island of Honshu in the Japan archipelago in 2011. It washed over low lying islands of Shetland and Orkney and roiled up the great inlets or firths of eastern mainland Scotland to leave thick sand deposits containing carcases of whales and other large sea mammals. At that time, Britain was joined to the rest of Europe by marshy lowlands linking East Anglia and the Netherlands dubbed ‘Doggerland’ at the southern end of a huge gulf that became the North Sea. Final sea level rise removed that initial gateway to Britain, so we cannot judge what damage the tsunami wrought, but tools and animal bones dredged from the area show that it was full of game and people. A disaster, but not one linked to seismicity. The driving force has been recognised in a series of submarine scars off the west coast of Norway that witness massive slides of sediment on the sea bed area known as Storegga. Similar scars around the Hawaiian Islands and those making up the Azores and Canaries in the mid Atlantic bear witness to many large slippage events, on the sea bed and from the islands themselves. Recognising signs of past tsunami damage in coastal areas worldwide reveals plenty of cases triggered by landslides rather than earthquakes.
The March 2011 Sendai tsunami and those which ravaged lands around the Indian Ocean in late 2004 formed because of vertical movements on major faults that dropped or shoved up the oceanic crust itself. Yet any sudden change in the shape of the sea floor will displace all the ocean water above, the difference from seismic tsunamis lies in the energy source: instead of tectonic plate forces, gravitational potential energy is released by slumps and slides. That may happen because of erosion producing unstable steep slopes, build up of sedimentary piles, large outpourings of lavas or slopes being destabilised by minor earthquakes or release of gases from the sediments themselves. The Mesolithic submarine slide at Storegga may have been set in motion by massive release of methane from gas-hydrate deposits, and such is the extent of scarring of the sea floor there that it must have happened before and may do so again.
Copper engraving showing the 1755 Lisbon tsunami overwhelming ships in the harbor. (credit: Wikipedia)
Realisation of the potential for tsunamis to be triggered by submarine and coastal and slides has spurred bathymetric studies in a number of likely areas, including the Gorringe Bank that lies on the Atlantic floor just west of the Iberian Peninsula. It is tectonic in origin but has a thick veneer of sediment brought by Iberian river systems. On its northern flank is a 35 km long scar of a slip that moved 80 km3 of sediment (Lo Iacono, C. And 11 others 2012. Large, deepwater slope failures: implications for landslide generated tsunamis. Geology, v. 40, p. 931-934). The Spanish-British-Italian group estimate that the slip would have generated a 15 m tsunami most likely to have affected the Iberian coast south of Lisbon. Conditions for slides of si,ilar magnitude still exist on the Gorringe Bank. One unstable system ripe for collapse is present far out in the Atlantic on the south-east coast of the island of Picos in the Azores (Hildenbrand, A. et al. 2012. Large-sale active slump on the southeast flan of Picos Island, Azores. Geology, v. 40, p. 939-942). This is in a coastal area where repeated volcanism has piled up lavas on the flanks of the island’s main volcanic edifice. Failure has already started, with a number of prominent arcuate scars having developed. The Picos slide moves very slowly sideways but vertical displacements ar estimated at up to a centimetre a year. The volume of the slowly moving mass is an order of magnitude less that the fossil slide on the Gorringe Bank. Yet should it fail entirely, the slopes involved, the absence of water’s slowing effect and the height of the mass might ensure comparable energy is delivered to the Atlantic Ocean, though the likely trajectory of tsunamis would be parallel to the coast of Africa rather than directly towards it.
Landslides of all kinds, though hazardous, have long been thought to be less of a risk to life globally than the more spectacular seismic and volcanic hazards, but there are few data to support that view. In an attempt to assess the annual risk properly, David Petley of Durham University, UK ‘mined’ world-wide landslide records for the seven years since 2004 (Petley, D. 2012. Global patterns of loss of life from landslides. Geology, v. 40, p. 927-930). There were more than 2600 recorded slope-failures that killed people and caused a total of more than 32 thousand fatalities: ten time more than previous vague estimates. This is a minimum because many landslides occur in very remote areas, especially in the mountainous regions of China and the Himalaya. The number of fatalities accompanying each event shows distinct signs, on a country-by-country basis, of a relationship with population density. Several international agencies are emerging that aim at means of measuring disaster risk, one being the Integrated Global Observing Strategy for Geohazards (IGOS).
A Canadian carbon capture and storage project in Saskatchewan (credit: US Mission to Canada via Flickr)
Tucking away vast amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide (carbon capture and storage or CCS), or at least that emitted by fossil-fuel power stations, is a widely suggested and well supported approach to slowing down global warming. It has two main downsides: if successful it helps maintain the dominance of fossil fuels and vast amounts of buried greenhouse gas might simply leak out some time. Ideally, the storage part of CCS would involve CO2 being taken up by an inert solid. Carbonates may be stable enough but arranging the chemical reactions to make them seem difficult, the most widely considered being by encouraging weathering of ultramafic rocks to form magnesium carbonates as a by-product: huge areas would have be coated with finely-ground peridotite. A less satisfactory approach would to dissolve the gas in water held at great depths in sedimentary aquifers, but if that water doesn’t move and doesn’t get warmed it might do the trick.
Unsurprisingly, a lot of funds are available to research CCS and ideas are pouring forth, a recent, sober assessment focussing on the solubility option (Steele-MacInnis, M. et al. 2012. Volumetrics of CO2 storage in deep saline formations. Environmental Science and Technology (August 2012 online) DOI: 10.1021/es301598t). The team from Virginia Tech and the US Department of Energy conclude that solution in brines trapped in deep aquifers may help, although solution is an equilibrium between gas and dissolved CO2, so that a gas layer in the aquifer is always likely to be present, even at high pressures. The only way of avoiding that is if the dissolved gas reacted with carbonate in the aquifer so that calcium and hydrogen-carbonate (HCO3–) ions entered solution. That ‘enhanced’ solution is not so easy since, although it mimics the calcite-weathering effect by acid rain that naturally takes CO2 from the atmosphere, calcite dissolves very sluggishly. But solution adds to the density of already dense brine so that it is less likely to leak upwards into more shallow aquifers. Their preferred technology is to liquefy the gas under pressure and pump that to deep aquifers where eventually the supercritical CO2 liquid will dissolve. The problem is this: while experiment and theory suggest the approach will work, nobody knows how long CO2 solution in brine will take. There needs to be a sizeable pilot study…
geological sequestration of carbon dioxide emissions from a coal-fired power plant. (Photo credit: LeJean Hardin and Jamie Payne Wikipedia)
Of all the ‘geoengineering’ approaches that may offer some relief from global warming pumping CO2 into deep sedimentary rocks, through carbon capture and storage (CCS) is one that most directly intervenes in the natural carbon cycle. In fact it adds an almost wholly anthropogenic route to the movement of carbon. It is difficult if not impossible for natural processes to ‘pump’ gases downwards except when they are dissolved in water and most often through the conversion of CO2 to solid carbonates or carbohydrates that are simply buried on the ocean floor. Artificially producing carbonate or organic matter on a sufficient scale to send meaningful amounts of anthropogenic carbon dioxide to long-term rock storage is pretty much beyond current technology, but gas sequestration seems feasible, if costly. The main issues concern making sure geological traps are ‘tight’ enough to prevent sufficient leakage to render the exercise of little use and to understand the geochemical effects of large amounts of buried gas that would inevitably move around to some extent.
The geochemistry is interesting as reactions of CO2 with rock and subsurface water are inevitable. The most obvious is that solution in water releases hydrogen ions to create weakly acidic fluids: on the one hand that might be a route for precipitation of carbonate and more secure carbon storage, through reaction with minerals (see http://earth-pages.co.uk/2012/04/10/possible-snags-and-boons-for-co2-disposal/), but another possibility is increasing solution of minerals that might eventually cause a trap to leak. A counterpart of pH change is the release of electrons, whose acceptance in chemical reactions creates reducing conditions. The most common minerals to be affected by reducing reactions are the iron oxides, hydroxides and sulfates that often coat sand-sized grains in sedimentary rocks, or occur as accessory minerals in igneous and metamorphic rocks. Iron in such minerals is in the Fe-3 valence state (ferric iron from which an electron has been lost through oxidation) which makes them among the least soluble common materials, provided conditions remain oxidising. Flooding sedimentary rocks with CO2 inevitably produces a commensurate flow of electrons that readily interact with Fe-3. The oxidised product Fe-2 (ferrousiron) is soluble in water, and so reduction breaks down iron-rich grain coatings. Much the same happens with less abundant manganese oxides and hydroxides. One important concern is that iron hydroxide (FeO.OH or goethite) has a molecular structure so open that it becomes a kind of geochemical sponge. Goethite may lock up a large range of otherwise soluble ions, including those of arsenic and some toxic metals. Should goethite be dissolved by reduction that toxic load moves into solution and can migrate.
Bleached zone with carbonate-oxide core in Jurassic Entrada Sandstone, Green River, Utah. (Image: Max Wigley, University of Cambridge)
Except where deep, carbonated groundwater leaks to the surface in springs – the famous Perrier brand of mineral water is an example – it is difficult to judge what is happing to gases and fluids at depth. But their long-past activity can leave signatures in sedimentary rocks exhumed to the surface. Most continental sandstones, formed either through river or wind action, are strongly coloured by iron minerals simply because of strongly oxidising conditions at the Earth’s surface for the past two billion years or more. Should reducing fluids move through the, the iron is dissolved and leached away to leave streaks and patches of bleached sandstone in otherwise red rocks. In a few cases an altogether more pervasive bleaching of hundreds of metres of rock marks the site of massive fluid-leakage zones. Terrestrial Mesozoic sedimentary sequences in the Green River area of Utah, USA exhibit spectacular examples, easily amenable to field and lab study (Wigley, M. et al. 2012. Fluid-mineral reactions and trace metal mobilization in an exhumed natural CO2 reservoir, Green River, Utah. Geology, v. 40, p. 555-558). There the bleaching rises up through the otherwise brown and yellow sandstones, cutting across the bedding. In the bleached zone, secondary calcite fills pore spaces. At the contact with unbleached sandstone there are layers of carbonate and metal oxides, enriched in cobalt, copper, zinc, nickel, lead, tin, molybdenum and chromium: not ores but clear signs confirming the general model of reductive dissolution of iron minerals and movement of metal-rich fluid. Carbon isotopes from the junction are richer in 13C than could be explained by the gas phase having been methane, and confirm naturally CO2 – rich fluids.
So, Green River provides a natural analogue for a carbon capture and storage system, albeit one that leaked so profusely it would be a latter day disaster zone. In that sense the site will help in deciding where not to construct CCS facilities.
Asbestos mine tailingsat Thetford in Quebec, Canada.(Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Not many people would like to visit a waste heap at an asbestos mine. That is not because waste heaps are generally boring but all forms of asbestos are carcinogens when inhaled. Encountering pits in the tailings that emits puffs of warm air would cause health and safety alarm bells to ring. Yet that is exactly what has attracted researchers to the huge asbestos mining complex at Thetford in Quebec, Canada: the air leaving the vents can be extremely depleted in carbon dioxide (Pronost, J. and 10 others 2012. CO3-depleted warm air venting from chrysotile milling waste (Thetford Mines, Canada): Evidence for in-situ carbon capture and storage. Geology, v. 40, p. 275-278). More precisely, the depletion – down to less than 10 parts per million (ppm) compared with normal atmospheric levels of 385 ppm – occurs in winter, when the puffing pits emit warm air far above the frigid air temperatures encountered in winter Quebec. The chrysotile must be reacting with groundwater and CO2, and is therefore a potential means of using near-surface natural materials for carbon capture and storage (CCS). The end product is an innocuous carbonate – Mg5(OH)2(CO3)4·4H2O – and dissolved silica. Quite a find, it might seem, as the reaction is exothermic too: CCS plus geothermal energy plus safe decomposition of a major environmental hazard. In fact any magnesium-rich silicates are likely to undergo the same carbonation reaction, especially if ground-up to increase the net surface area exposed to moist air.
The parent asbestos rock at Thetford is a metamorphic derivative from mantle ultramafic rocks in an ophiolite, and the asbestos insulation business, both for extremely hazardous blue (crocidolite) and less dangerous white (chrysotile) asbestos has been hugely profitable since the 19th century. Consequently, wherever there are altered ophiolites, generally in collision-zone orogenic belts, asbestos has been exposed either naturally or through mining and processing. There are many related cancer ‘hot spots’ in populous mining areas of Canada, India, the Alps and southern Africa, and in dry climates even natural exposures pose considerable risk. Could these blighted areas take on a new role in lessening the chance of global warming? About 30 billion tonnes of CO2 are emitted by burning fossil fuels each year. To keep pace, at the current atmospheric concentration of CO2, some 75 trillion tonnes of air would have to react annually with about 100 billion tonnes of magnesian silicate, making this form of CCS the largest industry on the planet (http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21428593.800-stripping-co2-from-air-requires-largest-industry-ever.html).
Another factor tempering somewhat forced optimism for CCS as a way of having our fossil fuel cake and eating it is that direct injection of greenhouse gases into deep storage may have an unforeseen down-side. Deep drilling and injection of fluids may trigger earthquakes. The alarm raised by small yet disturbing seismicity accompanying sites for shale-gas development by ‘fracking’ (http://earth-pages.co.uk/2011/11/04/fracking-check-list/ and http://earth-pages.co.uk/2011/10/14/britain-to-be-comprehensively-fracked/) has died down to some extent following detailed analysis of small earthquakes around drilling sites. It turns out that they are triggered not by the drilling itself but the subsurface disposal of the large amounts of fluids that have to be passed through the oil shales to make the tight rock permeable to gas (Kerr, R.A. 2012 Learning how to NOT make earthquakes. Science, v. 23 p. 1436-1437). Safe subsurface disposal requires injection wells penetrating 1 to 3 km below the surface, often below the cover of sedimentary strata and into crystalline basement. Such hard rocks store elastic strain induced by burial and tectonics, and release it when lubricated by fluids, especially if they contain dormant faults. Once impermeable rock can thus be hydrofractured in the same manner as ‘fracked’ gas-prone shales and old, often unsuspected faults reactivate: a catastrophic prospect for injected CO2. In sedimentary sequences, drilling CCS wells into porous rocks capped by impermeable ones – the scenario for ‘safe’ gas storage – could also induce ‘fracking’ of the sealing rocks and thereby causing leakage (see also http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn21633-fracking-could-foil-carbon-capture-plans.html).
Recent earthquakes in the US mid-west around New Madrid Missouri. Image via Wikipedia
Almost all devastating earthquakes within living memory and the tsunamis that ensued from some of them have occurred where tectonic plates meet and move past one another either horizontally through strike-slip motion or vertically as a result of subduction. This link between real events and the central theory of global dynamics gives an impression of inherent predictability about where damaging and deadly earthquakes might happen, if not the more useful matter of when the lithosphere might rupture. Such confidence is potentially highly dangerous: the most deadly earthquake in recorded history killed at least 800 thousand people in China’s Shanxi Province in 1556 when according to a description written shortly afterwards, ‘… various misfortunes took place… In some places, the ground suddenly rose up and formed new hills, or it sank abruptly and became new valleys. In other areas, a stream burst out in an instant, or the ground broke and new gullies appeared…’. Shanxi is far from any plate boundary. A study of Chinese historic records covering the last two millennia (Liu, M. et al. 2011. 2000 years of migrating earthquakes in North China: How earthquakes in midcontinents differ from those at plate boundaries. Lithosphere, v. 3, p. 128-132) shows a pattern to the position of large intraplate events. Rather than occurring along lines as do those at plate boundaries, earthquakes ‘hopped’ from place to place without affecting the same areas twice. Liu and colleagues consider this almost random pattern to result from reactivation of interlinked faults through broad-scale and gradual tectonic loading of the crust by far off plate movements. After a short period of reactivation one fault locks so that energy build-up is eventually released by another in the plexus of crustal weaknesses.
The best studied site of such intraplate seismicity lies midway along the Mississippi valley in the mid-US, between St Louis and Memphis. In 1811 and 1812 four Magnitude 7 to 8 earthquakes struck, the most affected place being the small township of New Madrid on the banks of the great river where mud and sand spouted from numerous sediment volcanoes. No-one died there but tremors were felt over a million square kilometers, bells ringing spontaneously as far away as Boston and Toronto. It is now known that this section of the Mississippi basin lies above a graben that affects the ancient basement beneath the alluvial sediments, one of whose faults was reactivated, perhaps in an analogous way to the hypothesis about Chinese seismicity. A coauthor in Liu et al. (2011), Seth Stein of Northwestern University, Illinois, believes stress redistribution through a Mid-western fault network was responsible and other events are likely at some uncertain time in the future on this and other areas underpinned by ancient fault complexes. Indeed sporadic ‘quakes up to Magnitude 7 have affected the eastern US and Canada and the Atlantic seaboard since European settlement. But since the largest of the New Madrid quartet of earthquakes, populations have grown across the likely areas of tenuous risk and future ones could have extremely serious consequences for which it is difficult to plan by virtue of unpredictability of both place and timing: in some respects a more worrying prospect than is the case where major events are inevitable – sometime – as along the San Andreas Fault. There are few, if any, major conurbations worldwide that could be considered seismically safe if the theory of networked stress redistribution through otherwise inert parts of continental crust is borne out.
In some respects the theory is a small-scale version of the suggested mechanical linkage through all major plate boundaries that has been suggested by some to account for the clustering in time of great earthquakes – around and above Magnitude 8 – around the globe. Since 2000 great earthquakes have occurred on subduction zones beneath Sumatra, the Himalaya, the Andes, Central America, Alaska, New Guinea, the mid-Pacific, Japan and the Kurile islands, on the strike-slip system that cuts New Zealand and in the intraplate setting of the 2008 Sichuan earthquake in China. Almost all plate boundaries link up globally, but although it seems likely that stress is redistributed along boundaries, especially between adjacent segments, as documented for the great Anatolian fault system of Turkey and the Indonesian subduction zone, a mechanism that transmits stress beyond individual plates seems unlikely.
The first signs of chronic arsenic poisoning: skin keratoses. Image by waterdotorg via Flickr
That groundwater in West Bengal, India was polluted with arsenic to such levels that symptoms of poisoning had become endemic was reported by Depankar Chakraborti in 1983, leading to his being branded a ‘panic monger’ by the Indian authorities. The news broke internationally in 1993 as the now infamous tragedy in neighbouring Bangladesh emerged. Means of mitigating the effects – lesions or keratoses and skin discoloration, and later increases in incidence of several forms of cancer – and ideas of how the pollution had occurred had to await proper geochemical analyses of well waters and logging of the mainly alluvial sediments from which water was being withdrawn; another 8 years went by. Reports of arsenicosis began to emerge from other areas of alluvial sediments in SE Asia, revealing by far the worst mass poisoning in history and the likelihood that the lives of millions would be blighted by what Bangladeshis dubbed ‘the Black Rain’ from the resemblance of the characteristic skin lesions to drops of black water.
Thanks principally to the work of water engineer Peter Ravenscroft with other geochemists, the source of arsenic in groundwater was narrowed down to the effect of reducing conditions in grey, carbonaceous sandstones and peats on the mineral goethite, an iron oxy-hydroxide that forms the main colorant in oxidised sediments and whose loose structure normally encourages the mopping-up by surface adsorption of a wide spectrum of dissolved ions, including those of arsenic. Goethite readily breaks down under reducing conditions, and when that happens all the adsorbed material is released into solution. The upper parts of the alluvial and deltaic sediments in the lower reaches of the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers contain abundant organic remains picked up when vegetation burgeoned during the Holocene, which mixed with goethite-coated sand grains derived from erosion in the Himalayan stretches of the rivers. Purely natural sedimentary and hydrogeological processes created the dreadful plight of villagers. The terrible irony was that before the 1980s there were no signs of arsenicosis, yet mortality, especially of under-fives, was very high due to water-borne pathogens in surface water supplies. Indian and Bangladeshi authorities and UN agencies waged a campaign to sink shallow wells for drinking water rather than relying on river and pond supplies. At first rural people resisted the change since they regarded water from wells as the ‘Devil’s water’, but as infant mortality began to fall, the resistance turned to rapid construction nationwide of wells, both public and private. A few years later came the ‘Black Rain’.
In the attempts to mitigate the arsenicosis plague, filters containing adsorptive materials, including goethite, were installed on pumps. However, the geochemists showed that in the deeper wells there were consistently low concentrations of arsenic in sediments that were brown-coloured due to prevailing oxidising conditions and the presence of goethite. Although arsenic was present in the sediments it was safely locked in the goethite coatings of sand grains. Steadily major public supplies were transferred to deep, high-yield wells. Alluvial and deltaic deposits are generally highly permeable, so it was feared that as the deeper wells were pumped arsenic-rich water from the reduced shallow sediments would replace the safe groundwater. Thankfully, it seems that is not likely to be a problem (Radloff, K.A. and 12 others 2011. Arsenic migration to deep groundwater in Bangladesh influenced by adsorption and water demand. Nature Geoscience, v. 4, p. 793-798). The study injected As-bearing groundwater into a deep aquifer and monitored its arsenic concentration over time, once in place. Within a day, the concentration of dissolved arsenic fell by 70% and by 5 days had fallen below recommended maximum levels for drinking water; a dramatic demonstration of the clean-up power of even minute films of goethite in sediments, for that seems the only explanation for the fall. The US-Bangladeshi team verified this by testing samples of the deeper sediments from drill cuttings. They mixed highly contaminated groundwater with the cuttings, to find that arsenic sorption over about a week was extremely high (~40mg kg-1).
Rather than just publishing their reassuring findings, the team input them to hydrogeological models of the Bengal Basin, varying hypothetical pumping rates to assess the changes in deep-groundwater chemistry over time due to downward migration of the highly polluted near-surface waters. Sure enough, the As-rich waters would end up in the deep aquifer eventually to overwhelm the sorptive capacity of its goethite content; arsenic would once again enter well supplies. However, if deep extraction was limited to drinking water by limiting pumping for irrigation to intermediate depths, safe limits could be sustained theoretically for a thousand years or more, except in some areas especially prone downward intrusion of polluted shallow groundwater. (Use of highly contaminated shallow groundwater for irrigation would simply transfer the problem to crops.) Clearly, monitoring is obligatory, but one hopes this important study does resolve the horrifying plight faced by so many people in catchments fed by Himalayan waters.
Aftermath of the 1906 mine explosion at Courrières, northern France; the largest mining disaster in Europe with 1099 fatalities. Image via Wikipedia
Britain is on the cusp of a shale-gas boom (see Britain to be comprehensively fracked? : EPN 14 October 2011) and it is as well to be prepared for some potential consequences. In extensively fracked parts of the US – the states of New York, Pennsylvania, Texas and Colorado – there are reports of water taps emitting roaring flames after dissolved methane in groundwater ignites. This is largely due to common-place household water supplies from unprocessed groundwater, which are rare in Britain. But there are other hazards (Mooney, C. 2011. The truth about fracking. Scientific American, v. 305 (Nov 2011), p. 62-67) that have enraged Americans in affected areas, which are just as likely to occur in Britain. In fact the nature of shale-gas exploitation by horizontal drilling beneath large areas poses larger threats in densely populated area, as the people of Blackpool have witnessed in the form of small earthquakes that the local shale-gas entrepreneur Cuadrilla admit as side effects of their exploratory operations .
Chris Mooney succinctly explains the processes involved in fracking shale reservoirs; basically huge volumes of water laced with a cocktail of hazardous chemicals and sand being blasted into shales at high pressure to fracture the rock hydraulically and create pathways for natural gas to leak to the wells. One risk is that this water has to be recovered and stored in surface ponds for re-use. About 75% returns to the surface and also carries whatever has been dissolved from the shales, which can be extremely hazardous. By definition a shale containing hydrocarbons creates strongly reducing conditions, which in turn can induce several elements to enter solution as well as easily dissolved salts; for instance divalent iron (Fe2+) is highly soluble, whereas more oxidised Fe3+ is not, so waters having passed through gas-rich shales will be iron-rich. But that is by no means the worst possibility; one of the most common iron minerals in sedimentary rocks is goethite (FeOOH), which adsorbs many otherwise soluble elements and compounds. In reducing conditions goethite can break down to release its adsorbed elements, among which is commonly arsenic. The blazing faucet hazard results from hydrocarbon gases leaking through imperfectly sealed well casings to enter shallow groundwater, where the gases can also create reducing conditions and release toxic elements and compounds into otherwise pure groundwater by dissolution of ubiquitous goethite, as in the infamous arsenic crisis of Bangladesh and adjoining West Bengal in India where natural reducing conditions do the damage.
What is not mentioned in the Scientific American article is the common association of hydrogen sulfide gas with petroleum, produced from abundant sulfate ions in formation water by bacteria that reduce sulfate to sulfide in the metabolism. This ‘sour gas’, as it is known in the oil industry, is a stealthy killer: at high concentrations it loses its rotten-eggs smell and in the early days of the petroleum industry killed more oil workers than did any other occupational hazard. Visit the spa towns of Harrogate in Yorkshire and Strathpeffer in northern Scotland and sample their waters for examples of what Carboniferous and Devonian gas-rich shales produce quite naturally: noxious stuff of questionable efficacy. The environmental effects of such natural seepage from gas-rich rocks tell a cautionary tale as regards fracking. The highly reducing cocktail of hydrocarbon and sulfide gases in rising, mineral-rich formation water kills the microbiotic symbionts that are essential to plant root systems for nutrient uptake die and so too do trees. The onshore Solway Basin of Carboniferous age in NW England illustrates both points, having many chalybeate springs as the sulfide- and iron-rich waters are euphemistically known and also a strange phenomenon in many of the deep valleys cut by glacial melt waters as land rose following the last glacial maximum. Once trees reach a certain height – and correspondingly deep root systems – they die, to litter the valley woodland with large dead-heads. Also leaves on smaller trees turn to their autumnal colours earlier than on higher ground. Both seem to be due to minor gas seepages from thick sale sequences in the depths of the sedimentary basin. Indeed, both are botanical indicators to the hydrocarbon explorationist.
To recap, a common size of a fracking operation using several horizontal wells driven from a single wellhead is 4km in diameter entering gas-rich shales at up to 2 km depth. Each well can generate fractures of a hundred metres or more in the shales and surrounding rocks, as they have to for commercial production. In Britain, most of the sites underlain by shales with gas potential are low-lying agricultural- or urban land. The producing rock in the Blackpool area is the Middle Carboniferous Bowland Shale that lies beneath the Coal Measures of what was formerly the Lancashire coalfield, now a patchwork of expanding urban centres. On 23 May 1984 an explosion occurred in Abbystead, Lancashire at an installation designed to pump winter flood water between the rivers Lune and Wyre through a tunnel beneath the Lower to Middle Carboniferous Bowland Fells. The Abbystead Disaster coincided with an inaugural demonstration of the pumping station to visitors, of whom 16 were killed and 22 injured. Methane had escaped from Carboniferous shales to build up in the flood-balancing tunnel soon after its construction. Methane build-ups were by far the worst hazard throughout the history of British coal mining, thousands dying and being maimed as a result of explosions. One of the largest death tolls in British coal-mining history was 344 miners at Hulton Colliery in Westhoughton, Lancashire in 1910 after a methane explosion; the methane may well have escaped from the underlying Bowland Shales.
Japan's deep-sea Drilling Vessel "CHIKYU" Image via Wikipedia
The most important factors in attempting to assess risk from earthquakes are their frequency and the time-dependence of seismic magnitude. Historical records, although they go back more than a millennium, do not offer sufficient statistical rigor for which tens or hundreds of thousand years are needed. So the geological record is the only source of information and for most environments it is incomplete, because of erosion episodes, ambiguity of possible signs of earthquakes and difficulty in precise dating; indeed some sequences are extremely difficult to date at all with the resolution and consistency that analysis requires. One set of records that offer precise, continuous timing is that from ocean-floor sediment cores in which oxygen isotope variations related to the intricacies of climate change can be widely correlated with one another and with the records preserved in polar ice cores. For the past 50 ka they can be dated using radiocarbon methods on foraminifera shells The main difficulty lies in finding earthquake signatures in quite monotonous muds, but one kind of feature may prove crucial; evidence of sudden fracturing of otherwise gloopy ooze (Sakagusch, A. et al. 2011. Episodic seafloor mud brecciation due to great subduction zone earthquakes. Geology, v.39, p. 919-922).
The Japanese-US team scrutinised cores from the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) that were drilled 5 years ago through the shallow sea floor above the subduction zone associated with the Nankai Trough to the SE of southern Japan. Young, upper sediments were targeted close to one of the long-lived faults associated with the formation of an accretionary wedge by the scraping action of subduction. Rather than examining the cores visually the team used X-ray tomography similar to that involved in CT scans, which produce precise 3-D images of internal structure. This showed up repeated examples of sediment disturbance in the form of angular pieces of clay set in a homogeneous mud matrix separated by undisturbed sections containing laminations. The repetitions are on a scale of centimetres to tens of centimetres and were dated using a combination of 14C and 210Pb dating (210Pb forms as a stage in the decay sequence of 238U and decays with a half-life of about 22 years, so is useful for recent events). The youngest mud breccia gave a 210Pb age of AD 1950±20, and probably formed during the 1944 Tonankai event, a great earthquake with Magnitude 8.2. Two other near-surface breccias gave 14C ages of 3512±34 and 10626±45 years before present. These too probably represent earlier great earthquakes as it can be shown that mud fracturing and brecciation by ground shaking needs accelerations of around 1G, induced by earthquakes with magnitudes greater than about 7.0. So, not all earthquakes in a particular segment of crust would show up in seafloor cores, most inducing turbidity flow of surface sediment, but knowing the frequency of the most damaging events, both by onshore seismicity and tsunamis, could be useful in risk analysis. In its favour, the method requires cores that penetrate only about 10 m, so hundreds could be systematically collected using simple piston coring rigs where a weighted tube is dropped onto the sea floor from a small craft.
Relics of the 2004 tsunami on the coast of South Andaman Island. Image via Wikipedia
Spurred by the horrific scenes and death toll wrought by tsunamis following the 26 December 2004 Sumatran and 11 March 2011 Sendai giant earthquakes, environmental geologists are beginning to look for signs that can reveal past tsunamis in order to evaluate risk from region to region. Before the 11 March disaster Japanese scientists had in fact traced signs of a tsunami in 869 CE and showed that it had reached almost as far inland as that following the Sendai earthquake. There are a number of geological features that mark the wake of a tsunami: dislodgement of huge boulders on rocky shores; signs of powerful scouring of sallow marine sediments as water recedes from the land; chaotic sediments made up of a jumble of clasts; sediments associated with high-energy flow interleaved with those that mark long periods of low energy deposition; marine faunas unexpectedly found in otherwise terrestrial sediments.
Shortly after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunamis Indian and Japanese scientists visited the Andaman Islands, which were at the northern end of the megathrust deformation, to seek onshore signs of previous catastrophes (Malik, J.N. et al. 2011. Geologic evidence for two pre-2004 earthquakes during recent centuries near Port Blair, South Andaman Island, India. Geology, v. 39, p. 559-562). They discovered a layer of ripped-up lumps of mud set in a sandy matrix dumped on a low-energy black mud, the sandy unit showing inclined stratification that dips inland. All the evidence pointed to deposition by a tsunami. An earlier event reveals swamping of older non-marine sediments by the black mud unit that contains brackish-marine diatoms; a probable result of sudden subsidence linked to an earthquake affecting the Andamans in much the same was as did that of December 2004. The mud had also been intruded by a body of structureless sand , probably resulting from liquefaction as a result of the seismicity. Dating the events using radiocarbon methods proved difficult. Although dating of the earlier event suggested an event around 1670 CE, carbon from the later one gave much older ages, suggesting that the tsunami had ripped up older sediments and redeposited them. However it may be correlated with the major Arakan earthquake of 2 April 1762 close to the coast of Myanmar.
Evidence of this kind can easily be overlooked, and rather less research centres on recent coastal-zone sediments than on sedimentary rocks of the distant past. Areas where such signs of neotectonics have been sought assiduously are those surrounding coastal nuclear installations, but largely to check for evidence of recent faulting that may indicate potential seismic threat but not tsunamis. Clearly it was that kind of threat that decisively put the Japanese Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station out of action and almost resulted in complete melt-down in March 2011, and severely set back construction of an advanced fast-breeder reactor on the eastern coat of India at Kalpakkam, near Chennai in 2004.
Media coverage of the disasters following the magnitude 9.0 earthquake of 11 March 2011 that devastated the north-eastern coast of Honshu, Japan around the city of Sendai is now (early May) fitful and dominated by the aftermath of the tsunamis’ effect on the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. For those who escaped the tsunamis the experience is irredeemably seared on their memory. Unlike the great waves that killed 10 times more people around the Indian Ocean on 26 December 2004, it will also be unforgettable for those of us far from the event who witnessed the lengthy, high-definition footage captured during the black-water torrents that swept all before them far inland. But that is no longer ‘news’…
Only 6 to 7 weeks later lessons are being learned that probably should have been anticipated long before. Japan has the world’s best disaster preparedness systems. They are centred on civil engineering that was proven to resist great earthquakes by that of 11 March; the terrifying tremors resulted in far fewer casualties than would have been the case anywhere else under such conditions. The tragedy lay with the magnitude of the tsunamis – as high as 30 m in some areas – that reached the coast within an hour of the seismic event. As well as the devastation and loss of life along the coast and up fertile low-lying valleys, waves of this size swept over defences of the coastal Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant cutting off emergency power supplies: the world’s largest tsunami barriers proved inadequate to the task and near-meltdown ensued.
Despite the densest network of seismometers anywhere and in-place earthquake early-warning and risk-assessment systems, the events were not forecast and the only warning was that of the earthquake itself which alerted a well-versed population to the imminence of tsunamis to follow. Public education and preparedness proved to be the major life saver, except of course for those tragically killed or lost without trace. So what went wrong?
The risk assessment and warning systems produced results that bore little relation to the actual seismic shaking; the warning was for the immediate vicinity of Sendai city to experience the highest intensities (5-6), most of the rest of Honshu, including Tokyo, having expected intensities in the 2-4 range. For Fukushima Daiichi a maximum magnitude of 7.2 in its vicinity was predicted to have less than 10% chance of occurring over the next 50 years. In reality seismometers across the whole eastern part of the Honshu north of Tokyo recorded intensities between 5-7, demonstrated graphically by numerous CCT recordings in shops and offices. The emerging opinion is that the theory and historic data used for risk and warning systems are flawed or inadequate. For instance the earthquake ripped along 400 km of the Japan Trench subduction zone rather than being a point source – a lesson also from the Sumatra earthquake of 26 December 2004, when ocean-floor thrusting extended 1200 km northwards to the Andaman Islands. Great earthquakes are far too infrequent for sufficient modern-style seismic data to have been collected for previous cases in the 20th century, but it seems clear since 2004 that: (1) stresses accumulate to unexpectedly high values where opposed plates are coupled or stuck together; (2) the ‘point-source’ model for earthquakes, which the use of seismic focuses and epicentres pinpointed by the world-wide seismic network encourages, is far from reality, the more so for the biggest stress accumulations; (3) existing approaches will fail for events with magnitudes greater than 8.0.
NOAA's Prediction of 11 March tsunami wave heights across Pacific Ocean. Image by cogito ergo imago via Flickr
Part of the problem is the sparse record of great earthquakes and the likelihood that, if they do have cyclicity, it may be of the order of hundreds to thousands of years. Historical sources record a large earthquake and tsunamis affecting Sendai district in 869 CE (Common Era), confirmed recently by geologists having located a typical tsunami deposit extending 3-4 km up the Sendai Plain, compared with more than 5 km in March 2011. The survey team claimed at the time that their discovery might indicate far higher risk now in the area than modelled ‘officially’. Sadly, evaluating the prediction was incomplete when disaster did strike. Geoscientists can map faults, infer the length of their activity and work out the mechanisms whereby they fail, but apart from historical data – often sketchy – pinpointing and quantifying past events is beyond us, Looking at more widespread secondary effects, tsunami deposits in particular that often contain dateable organic debris, seems a fruitful way forward for coastal areas likely to bear the brunt of both shaking and huge inundations and the powerful ebbing of their flood waters. That is a topic in its infancy, but likely now to burgeon.
Ominously, because great earthquakes are so rare along any plate boundary, for seven greater than magnitude 8 to occur worldwide in a matter of 6 years (Sumatra, 2004, 9.1, 2005, 8.8, and three with magnitude >7 in 2010; Kuril Islands, 2006, 8.3, 2007, 8.1; Sichuan, 2008, 8.0; Chile, 2010, 8.8; Japan, 2011, 9.0) raises the questions, do they occur in time clusters, and if so, why? Although the numbers are small enough to strain statistics, comparing the last six years with the previous century or so of seismometer recordings shows that great earthquakes have never occurred so frequently. Is there a domino effect so that, say, energy from the Sumatran earthquake of late 2004 has somehow been transmitted throughout the interconnected subduction-zone system to destabilise other highly stressed areas? It is widely acknowledged that in one subduction system there is evidence of clustering, and this may extend to the two great earthquakes (2006 and 2007) in the Kuril Islands on the same boundary as the Sendai event, and two off Sumatra (2004 and 2005) with three more with magnitude >7 in 2010 on what previously had been regarded as a relatively quiescent subduction zone. Analysing all recorded seismic events greater than magnitude 5 to improve the statistics suggests that clustering does not extend to global scales, yet great earthquakes buck other trends shown by lesser ones. Their motions both vertical and lateral could conceivably cause widespread destabilisation, yet worryingly the only test of the idea is the occurrence of yet more in the next few years.
Sources: Normile, D. et al. 2011. Devastating earthquake defied expectations. Science, v. 331, p. 1375-1376; Brahic, C. et al. 2011. Megaquake aftermath. New Scientist, v. 209 (19 March 2011), p. 6-8; Cyranoski, D. Japan faces up to failure of its earthquake preparations. Nature, v. 471, p. 556-557; Normile, D. 2011. Scientific consensus on great quake came too late. Science, v. 332, p. 22-23.
See also: Geller, R.J. 2011. Shake-up time for Japanese seismology. Nature, v. 472, p. 407-409; Kerr, R.A. 2011. New Work reinforces megaquake’s harsh lessons in geoscience. Science, v. 332, p. 911
Damage in Christchurch, New Zealand. Image by Shazster via Flickr
Every time seismic disaster strikes, as it did in Christchurch New Zealand on 22 February 2011 to kill at least 160 people and destroying a third of the city’s buildings, people long for some means to be forewarned of pending earthquakes early enough to escape collapsing buildings. Many approaches have been suggested over the years, such as changing water levels in wells, increased emission of radon and even the behaviour of animals in advance of major events. Ideally, seismic early warning tools should be generally applicable, easily implemented and possible to telemeter immediately to local and national authorities. Probably the best place to seek such a method is in the field of seismology itself, and one candidate recently emerged (Bouchon, M. et al. 2011. Extended nucleation of the 1999 Mw 7.6 Izmit earthquake. Science, v. 331, p. 877-880). This examines foreshocks of the tragic events at around midnight 16 August 2009 in NW Turkey that ripped along 150 km of the North Anatolian Fault to kill around 17 000 people. The seismological records of the Izmit earthquake are not good quality, but Michel Bouchon and his French and Turkish colleagues, experts on the event, were able mine the ‘blurred’ data using new techniques. What they found was a sequence of 18 small earthquakes up to 45 minutes before the main one, each of which showed remarkably similar seismogram traces. From them they were able to show that most of the foreshocks arose from the same place on the fault and involved the same kind of deformation; by slippage in a patch or nucleus only about a few hundred metres wide at 15 km depth on the main fault. At each successive foreshock the rate of slip can be shown to have speeded up, and in the final 2 minutes before the main earthquake the localised acceleration was at its fastest. Also the low-frequency ‘rumble’ associated with each shock steadily got more powerful. These features define a similar shape for each seismogram record in the foreshock sequence.
Radar interferogram showing the movement along the North Anatolian Fault during the 16 August 2009 Izmit earthquake. Each sequence of colours (lower left) represents 28 mm of movement Image via Wikipedia
The Izmit data tally well with a theoretical scenario for the initiation of movement along a fault. As tectonic stress builds up it begins to be dissipated by slow creep that can focus on a small part of the fault. Since this weakens that patch, subsequent creep is likely to favour the same place which becomes a nucleus for later events. If the stress loading is large enough to presage an eventual rip along a greater section of the fault such a major event will probably propagate sideways from the nucleus weakened by creep. Given sensitive seismometers suitably placed along threatening faults zones linked by telemetry to a central unit, as might seem sensible anyway, automated analysis of foreshock records with the signature of spatially restricted creep that begin to show an accelerating sequence might give the 5 to 10 minutes of warning that are the minimum to reduce fatalities in major earthquakes. However, analysis of better data from some other earthquakes does not reveal the same features, but it is early days and similar patterns may emerge from yet others: fault systems behave in a range of ways depending on their tectonic settings. The other issue is the cost of installations and facilities and their maintenance over long periods – how could somewhere like Haiti find the resources. And sadly, some earthquakes, like that beneath Christchurch occur on faults that show no sign at the surface.
Methane hydrates – natural gas held in clathrate solids that resemble water ice – that occur in sea-floor sediments are on the one hand a potential energy resource and on the other pose great risks. There are between 1015 to 1017 m3 buried beneath the ocean floors and an unknown amount in Arctic soils and lakes. The temperature that confers stability on these peculiar solids depends on pressure. At pressures lower than those at a water depth of around 250m they are unstable. Clathrate crystals form from natural gas and water in sediments at 0°C at that depth and at progressively higher temperatures at deeper levels beneath the seafloor, until geothermal heat flow at a depth of around 2.5 km results in temperatures above about 20°C when they cannot form; there is a depth-temperature window in which gas hydrates may be found in seafloor sediments, which depends on the temperature of deep water. Little is known about the stability of gas hydrates. In some areas there is a steady release of methane that bubbles to the surface, whereas in others they can be detected by seismic surveys in huge volumes that appear to be stable with no release. One area rich in gas hydrates occurs at the continental edge off the Norwegian coast (the Storeggain Norwegian). Periodically sediments at the Storegga fail in massive sub-sea landslides which have resulted in tsunamis in the North Sea. The last such tsunami occurred around 6100 BCE after a slide displaced 3500 km3 of debris, devastating the east coast of Scotland. Either an earthquake triggered the slide or it was due to destabilizing of the clathrates. Either way huge amounts of methane would have been released. At the end of the Palaeocene Era (55 Ma) a global carbon-isotope anomaly coincides with evidence for very rapid climatic warming, which suggests that vast amounts of methane – a far more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2 – were released from submarine gas hydrates. In recent years the loss without trace of several large ships may have resulted from a lowering in the density of surface water by gas bubbles that caused the vessels to founder. One country that plans to exploit gas hydrates off its Pacific cast is Japan, and recent surveys indicate a large basin underlain by highly disturbed sediments which contain clathrates on the flank of the basin (Bangs, N.L. et al. 2010. Massive methane release triggered by seafloor erosion offshore southwestern Japan. Geology, v. 38, p. 1019-1022). It appears that bottom currents eroded the seafloor to destabilize the clathrates that then ‘erupted’ ripping through the sediments to release around 1.5 x 1011 m3 of methane. Clearly, drilling into gas hydrate deposits is going to be a risky business; drilling will reduce the pressure so that gas is released and it is not known whether or not this might trigger a form of chain reaction. In the longer term, warming of deep water as a result of climate change could place much larger areas of clathrate-rich seafloor in a knife edge.
At the centre of the Peak District National Park in England is a small mountain called Mam Tor, at the summit of which is a large Iron Age fort complete with defensive ramparts and ditches. Complete, that is, except for its southern parts, which are chopped through by a large arcuate cliff. Below that is hummocky ground typical of landslips, but such disturbed ground is common over large tracts in the Peak District that lie below hills, especially those underlain by Lower Namurian shales of the region. Mam Tor is the only one of these that has an active landslip. Since my early childhood the local authority has tried to keep trafficable a once major road linking the cities of Sheffield and Manchester, but to no avail; most winters it was buckled and cracked by continued motion. The road was abandoned in 1979 and is now a magnificent laboratory for judging the kind of motion involved in the Mam Tor slip. The Iron Age people had much the same problem, as the slip began around 1500 BC long before the fort was built. Clearly, they were not engineering geologists, though the unclimbable scar was maybe a defensive bonus, provided the old, the bewildered and the very young were kept well away from it, as they are today.
Records of the movement have been kept since the road was constructed in 1820, and one milestone has moved 50 m in 190 years at a constant annual rate, but just how it moves has only become clear since Manchester University geologists installed tilt and creep meters, and 50 survey stations in 2004-5. Their preliminary results are just in (Green, S. et al. 2010. The effects of groundwater level and vegetaion on creep of the Mam Tor landslip. Geology Today, v. 26, p. 134-139). The creep rate is clearly governed by groundwater level beneath the slip, and has risen as high as 19.5 mm per day. From the logarithmic plot between the two variables it is possible to estimate the creep rate with completely saturated ground, which would be an ominous 0.6 m per day. Thankfully, drainage through the slip is good, as beneath lie highly unstable mudstones; but things could change. The team has also monitored local rainfall, and precipitation underwent a marked increase from 2000 onward (1.64 m per year) compared with the average since 1930 of 1.3 m per year. Fortunately, spring and summer rains are quickly returned to the atmosphere by vigorous evapotranspiration by the lush grasses and ferns on the slipped mass. The greatest creep takes place in the winter when vegetation has died back. Mam Tor is indeed highly instructive, but at present poses no great hazard, yet it might become less predictable should annual rainfall increase. It is unlikely to attain the awesome pace of that in Calabria, southern Itaaly on 15 February 2010 at Maierato near Vibo Valentia (view www.stumbleupon.com/su/9LP6H7/sorisomail.com/email/42722/ja-viram-desmoronar-uma-montanha.html).
At the centre of the Peak District National Park in England is a small mountain called Mam Tor, at the summit of which is a large Iron Age fort complete with defensive ramparts and ditches. Complete, that is, except for its southern parts, which are chopped through by a large arcuate cliff. Below that is hummocky ground typical of landslips, but such disturbed ground is common over large tracts in the Peak District that lie below hills, especially those underlain by Lower Namurian shales of the region. Mam Tor is the only one of these that has an active landslip. Since my early childhood the local authority has tried to keep trafficable a once major road linking the cities of Sheffield and Manchester, but to no avail; most winters it was buckled and cracked by continued motion. The road was abandoned in 1979 and is now a magnificent laboratory for judging the kind of motion involved in the Mam Tor slip. The Iron Age people had much the same problem, as the slip began around 1500 BC long before the fort was built. Clearly, they were not engineering geologists, though the unclimbable scar was maybe a defensive bonus, provided the old, the bewildered and the very young were kept well away from it, as they are today.
Records of the movement have been kept since the road was constructed in 1820, and one milestone has moved 50 m in 190 years at a constant annual rate, but just how it moves has only become clear since Manchester University geologists installed tilt and creep meters, and 50 survey stations in 2004-5. Their preliminary results are just in (Green, S. et al. 2010. The effects of groundwater level and vegetaion on creep of the Mam Tor landslip. Geology Today, v. 26, p. 134-139). The creep rate is clearly governed by groundwater level beneath the slip, and has risen as high as 19.5 mm per day. From the logarithmic plot between the two variables it is possible to estimate the creep rate with completely saturated ground, which would be an ominous 0.6 m per day. Thankfully, drainage through the slip is good, as beneath lie highly unstable mudstones; but things could change. The team has also monitored local rainfall, and precipitation underwent a marked increase from 2000 onward (1.64 m per year) compared with the average since 1930 of 1.3 m per year. Fortunately, spring and summer rains are quickly returned to the atmosphere by vigorous evapotranspiration by the lush grasses and ferns on the slipped mass. The greatest creep takes place in the winter when vegetation has died back. Mam Tor is indeed highly instructive, but at present poses no great hazard, yet it might become less predictable should annual rainfall increase. It is unlikely to attain the awesome pace of that in Calabria, southern Itaaly on 15 February 2010 at Maierato near Vibo Valentia (view http://www.stumbleupon.com/su/9LP6H7/sorisomail.com/email/42722/ja-viram-desmoronar-uma-montanha.html).
Partly because of natural processes and partly due to a shift to avoid pathogens in surface water used for domestic to a massive well-drilling programme much of rural Bangladesh and neighbouring West Bengal in India found itself the epicentre of ‘the largest mass poisoning of a population in history’, during the 1990s. The agent was soluble arsenic in various forms that reducing conditions in shallow aquifers had released by dissolving its host mineral, iron hydroxide coatings on sand grains. Geological and hydrological attributes of the two hard-hit areas helped develop a model for assessing the risks in other areas. More than a decade on from the world-wide recognition of the tragedy (local geoscientists had their suspicions much earlier) a review of arsenic hazard in both South and Southeast Asia (Fendorf, S. et al. 2010. Spatial and temporal variations of groundwater arsenic in south and south-east Asia. Science, v. 328, p. 1123-1127) is welcome but is not reassuring. The problem now extends to plains of the whole of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna system, the Red River of Vietnam and the Mekong of Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and part of Thailand. Almost certainly the Indus and Irrawaddy plains are affected too, though few data are available. The review highlights a haphazard aspect of the distribution of affected wells, both in geographic location and the depth of the tapped aquifer. In the latter case, it was thought that deeper aquifers were less prone to contamination than those in the top 100 m of wells. It turns out that even at depth up to a third of wells exceed WHO recommended levels of arsenic. The positive feature is that many villagers are within walking distance of safe well water. But it is difficult to predict whether or not new wells will be risky, and little is know about safe well’s propensity to become contaminated by groundwater flow from elsewhere. Two clear messages are, first to refine methods of testing and assessing hydrogeological conditions, second to move from hand drawn water from individual wells to provision of piper water from high-yielding safe wells.
On 14 March 2010 the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajoekull conspired with a major kink in the stratospheric jet stream, itself a possible outcome of ‘quiet Sun’ conditions, to load the lower atmosphere with its ash cloud. The cloud arrived over most of Europe the following day with outcomes that need no mention here.
Researchers collected samples from the plume over Britain, finding particles mainly of the order of 0.1 mm diameter ranging up to 3 mm. The larger particles account for much of the mass of suspended ash (Sanderson, K. Questions fly over ash-cloud models. Nature, v. 464, p. 1253), but that amounted to only 60 mg m-3 in the air over Britain compared with a ‘danger level’ of 2000 mg m-3 declared by the Civil Aviation Authority. That volcanic ash – and presumably dust from sand storms – is hazardous to aircraft is a truism, but little is known about the actual processes involved.
At the speed of modern jet aircraft, mineral or glass dust sandblasts flight deck windscreen, may damage or clog the tubes used to measure airspeed, build up electrostatic charge to interfere with communications and may melt to coat turbine blades (Wikipedia –“volcanic ash”). Two near-catastrophic encounters of Boeing 747 passenger aircraft with ash clouds in the 1980s formed the basis for precautionary halting of all air traffic over most of Europe in mid-April 2010. In both incidents all four engines overheated and cut out, as the ash melted onto turbine blades and prevented them cooling. Fortunately, descent below the ash cloud cooled and shattered the glass coating so that the engines could be restarted. However, unbalancing of the turbines potentially could have caused them to jam irreversibly. Jet engines run at around 1400º C so can potentially melt ash of any composition: at atmospheric pressure the melting temperature of both felsic and basaltic materials is 1000-1200º C. Both the 1980s incidents occurred suddenly in thick ash plumes close to volcanoes, in which ash particles would have been larger than those in the dispersed cloud over Europe in April 2010. Little is known about how melted ash might accumulate in and damage turbines during prolonged flight through very dispersed, ultra-fine-grained ash clouds.
Disruption of aviation schedules is just one continental-scale hazard from Icelandic volcanoes. In the summer of 1783 an eruption of Laki, a fissure volcano further inland, killed 80% of Iceland’s sheep, 50% of other livestock and by the end of the year 25% of its human population. The magma was enriched in fluorine and among the emitted gases was hydrogen fluoride that reacted with ash to form metal fluorides that coated vegetation across wide tracts of the island. Ingesting fluorides leads to fluorosis, a crippling disease to which sheep and cows are especially prone. Most of the human victims probably died of starvation. However, archaeologists who exhumed burials from the time of Laki’s last devastating eruption found skeletal signs of fluorosis: bony nodules and spiky fibres in joints (see Archaeology and fluorine poisoning in EPN for December 2004). It is a repeat of Laki’s toxic ash eruption that Icelanders most fear. During 1783 there were widespread reports from northern Europe of a bluish, acrid smelling haze, probably rich in sulfur dioxide. Contrary to the cooling effect of sulfuric acid aerosols in the upper atmosphere, this acrid fog seems to have warmed the regional summer to possibly the hottest in several centuries. Followed by a bitterly cold winter, Laki’s distant effect was devastation of crops, famine and deaths from starvation. It was not restricted to Europe, drought and famine affecting Egypt, India and Japan at the same time, with an estimated global death toll of more than 2 million. This suggests that some of the sulfur dioxide did become trapped in the stratosphere as climatically cooling sulfuric acid droplets that spread over the whole Northern Hemisphere. There are few records of wind patterns from the mid 1780s, yet the filling of Europe’s skies with Icelandic dust in 2010 suggests that a similar, wind system prevailed in 1783 – clockwise from Iceland around a large anticyclone centred on western Britain.
When the Eyjafjallajoekull volcano last erupted in 920, 1612, and 1821-1823, the much larger subglacial volcano Katla, 25 km to the east, followed suit. Around 10 600 years ago Katla emitted 6 to 7 km3 of ash, recognisable in Scotland, Norway and in North Atlantic sediment cores. Many Icelanders regard Katla as potentially their most dangerous volcano.
Early 2010 witnessed horrific scenes on Haiti following a magnitude 7.0 earthquake on the afternoon of 12 January to be followed early in the morning of 26 February by one of the largest ever recorded in Chile (magnitude 8.8). Haiti has suffered fatalities on a scale that match those of the Indian Ocean tsunamis of 26 December 2004, while a huge area of coastal Chile affected by seismic energies more than a hundred times greater had estimated fatalities of over 700, though rising at the time of writing. It is easy to ascribe the relative magnitudes of human tragedy, which are the opposite of the relative seismic magnitudes, entirely to the more advanced infrastructure of one of South America’s most advanced countries compared with that of one of the world’s poorest. But that is not the full story. Haiti suffered from a shallow event very close to major population centres whose energy easily reached the surface. The fault responsible involved transverse horizontal movements that sheared through thick soft coastal sediments, which liquefied beneath Port au Prince. That offshore of Chile was much deeper, on a subduction zone and involved vertical movements, so much of its energy was dissipated deep in the crust, yet the area of structural damage along Chile’s narrow coastal fringe is much larger than in Haiti.
Sure, Chile has long had stringent regulations for seismic safety of construction and a state of emergency preparedness commensurate with its history of devastating earthquakes, including the largest ever recorded on 26 May 1960 with magnitude 9.5 that released about ~32 times more energy than the recent one. It is a country well-endowed with income from its huge mining operations, well-developed wineries and much else, especially foreign investment. Haiti has nothing but the horrifying reputation of a string of governments. Until the recent tragedy the majority of its people were left to fend for themselves, close to the playgrounds of the super-rich and the offshore hidey holes of ‘non-doms’. Yet survivors in both countries face essentially the same physical privations of having to live rough and the lasting horror that no amount of wealth can remove. After experiencing the great Valdivia earthquake of 20 February 1835, also in Chile, Charles Darwin observed,
‘An earthquake like this at once destroys the oldest associations; the world, the very emblem of all that is solid, moves beneath our feet like a crust over fluid; one second of time conveys to the mind a strange idea of insecurity, which hours of reflection would never create.’
In both cases lessons may be learned, some socio-economic that are too obvious to repeat here. There is, though, one of that kind that transcends most of the others: the 21st century’s first decade has seen a seismic death toll of 640 thousand; a fourfold increase over the previous 20 years fatalities. That is a reflection of increasing drift of especially poor people to cities. If their dwellings are easily smashed they stand little chance. So far, the pledges of aid for reconstruction in Haiti amount to about US$5000 for each damaged structure. For geoscientists, however, what is beginning to emerge from these and the various large earthquakes in Indonesia, Pakistan and China since 2004 is that past seismic history is a clue to future events.
Faults zones behave in a segmented fashion, each with its own crude cyclicity but each somewhat prone to being triggered by events from nearby sectors. Between 1750 to 1770 Haiti was repeatedly devastated when the culprit fault unleashed its pent up stresses. Since then it has been locked in the vicinity of Haiti, with tectonic motions of about 8 mm per year accumulating to the 2 m or so motion undergone by the fault on 12 January. Subduction zones accumulate strain in many sectors distributed along the plate boundary, sometimes locking as seamounts start to descend to ‘clog’ them. Statistical analysis of historical earthquakes and locating their probable epicentres in relation to fault segments, with estimates of their power that would now be measurable from seismograph data, can at least highlight future risk geographically even if timely predictions remain impossible. Yet will their be action that matches up to the potential hazard? 2000 years ago the destruction of Pompeii and Herculaneum in the Bay of Naples by Vesuvius was recorded in graphic detail of which the excavations presented a gruesome reminder. Yet Naples expands to urbanise the very slopes of Europe’s most dangerous natural threat.
See also: Bilham, R. 2010. Lessons from the Haiti earthquake. Nature, v. 463, p. 878-879.
Perhaps the most infamously unexpected earthquake was that of 17 December 1811 that shook the historically quiescent middle Mississippi valley with an estimated magnitude of 7 on the Richter scale. The area centred on New Madrid has been resonating with seismic events of lesser magnitude ever since. So too has the area around Charleston, South Carolina on the passive Atlantic margin of the USA, which experienced a magnitude 7 earthquake in 1886. Geophysicists now know to expect major earthquakes at some time in some place along active plate margins, especially subduction zones and boundaries dominated by strike slip motion, although prediction is an art to be learned if indeed it will ever be possible. Yet even small tremors far from plate boundaries within continental parts of plates are a continual worry. The shock of totally unexpected devastation in New Madrid and Charleston makes seismic-risk assessors mark the card of any such events, especially if repeated. Ideally, plate interiors should be rigid and safe. The magnitude 7.9 Sichuan event in May 2008, which caused more than 80 thousand deaths along a fault with no history of activity, reinforced worry. All three examples were situated in areas with old faults, of which most areas of continental crust have plenty, though some are hidden. Somehow tectonic forces had built up and eventually they failed.
Protracted activity might seem to foretell more big ‘quakes. However, it now appears that faults in continental interiors behave very differently from those at plate boundaries: aftershocks, even some with magnitude 6, continue for centuries in the first case, but only for a few years or decades at tectonically active margins (Stein, S. & Liu, M. 2009. Long aftershock sequences within continents and implications for earthquake hazard assessment. Nature, v. 462, p. 87-89). The duration of aftershocks in inversely related to the tectonic load sustained by faults. A lesson suggested is that assigning high risk to continental areas with repeated seismicity overestimates the dangers. But does this mean those seismically stable areas in continental interiors pose underestimated risks? The answer is probably ‘Yes’, if they are near to old faults. That is not to say that the Caledonian and Variscan structures that divide Britain into many small blocks are about to ‘go off’ at any time. Some do generate small, noticeable tremors such as that beneath Market Weighton in east Yorkshire at 1 am on 27 February 2008 that woke people up to several hundred kilometres away (including me). Market Weighton was an area of reduced subsidence during Jurassic sedimentation, as a result of flanking Variscan faults in the crust beneath. However, if large structures – high-rise buildings, bridges, dams and power stations – are planned, it would be wise to look in detail at local faults. One approach is to map disturbance of superficial sediments that in Britain would show activity over the last 18 to 11 thousand years since ice sheets melted. Another is to check bedrock geology for the last major movements on faults. It may become possible to develop models of seismic cyclicity for all large structures to give realistic assessments of risk in the future.
See also: Parsons, T. 2009. Lasting earthquake legacy. Nature, v. 462, p. 42-43.
Earth-logs 