Former Senior Lecturer at British Open University, research in remote sensing of arid lands, groundwater exploration, Precambrian tectonics and geochemistry
Relics of the 2004 tsunami on the coast of South Andaman Island. Image via Wikipedia
Spurred by the horrific scenes and death toll wrought by tsunamis following the 26 December 2004 Sumatran and 11 March 2011 Sendai giant earthquakes, environmental geologists are beginning to look for signs that can reveal past tsunamis in order to evaluate risk from region to region. Before the 11 March disaster Japanese scientists had in fact traced signs of a tsunami in 869 CE and showed that it had reached almost as far inland as that following the Sendai earthquake. There are a number of geological features that mark the wake of a tsunami: dislodgement of huge boulders on rocky shores; signs of powerful scouring of sallow marine sediments as water recedes from the land; chaotic sediments made up of a jumble of clasts; sediments associated with high-energy flow interleaved with those that mark long periods of low energy deposition; marine faunas unexpectedly found in otherwise terrestrial sediments.
Shortly after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunamis Indian and Japanese scientists visited the Andaman Islands, which were at the northern end of the megathrust deformation, to seek onshore signs of previous catastrophes (Malik, J.N. et al. 2011. Geologic evidence for two pre-2004 earthquakes during recent centuries near Port Blair, South Andaman Island, India. Geology, v. 39, p. 559-562). They discovered a layer of ripped-up lumps of mud set in a sandy matrix dumped on a low-energy black mud, the sandy unit showing inclined stratification that dips inland. All the evidence pointed to deposition by a tsunami. An earlier event reveals swamping of older non-marine sediments by the black mud unit that contains brackish-marine diatoms; a probable result of sudden subsidence linked to an earthquake affecting the Andamans in much the same was as did that of December 2004. The mud had also been intruded by a body of structureless sand , probably resulting from liquefaction as a result of the seismicity. Dating the events using radiocarbon methods proved difficult. Although dating of the earlier event suggested an event around 1670 CE, carbon from the later one gave much older ages, suggesting that the tsunami had ripped up older sediments and redeposited them. However it may be correlated with the major Arakan earthquake of 2 April 1762 close to the coast of Myanmar.
Evidence of this kind can easily be overlooked, and rather less research centres on recent coastal-zone sediments than on sedimentary rocks of the distant past. Areas where such signs of neotectonics have been sought assiduously are those surrounding coastal nuclear installations, but largely to check for evidence of recent faulting that may indicate potential seismic threat but not tsunamis. Clearly it was that kind of threat that decisively put the Japanese Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station out of action and almost resulted in complete melt-down in March 2011, and severely set back construction of an advanced fast-breeder reactor on the eastern coat of India at Kalpakkam, near Chennai in 2004.
Following closely on discovery in 1 Ga old sediments of the earliest evidence for eukaryote life in continental environments (see Eukaryote conquest of the continents posted June 11, 2011) it seems that metazoan animals colonised non-marine environments earlier than had previously been thought. Up to now most palaeontologists believed that there was a lag of at least 80 Ma between the emergence of marine bilaterian metazoans and their expansion into freshwater, due to a number of physiological hurdles that had to be overcome, such as regulation of trace element chemistry within their cells and bodily fluids. It has been know for more than a century that the first signs of sturdy animals in the marine realm are burrows in tidal sediments that formed more or less at the Cambrian-Precambrian boundary; the earlier sac-like Ediacaran fauna seemed ill-suited to a burrowing or infaunal habitat. A considerable thickness of clastic sediments occur in the Cambrian of eastern California, USA. The earliest are clearly shallow-marine and contain abundant evidence of burrowing. Succeeding them are intensively studied fluviatile sands and silts that have been used a model for sedimentation in the absence of the stabilising influence of land plants. What has been overlooked until recently is evidence for colonisation of the river-laid deposits by burrowing animals (Kennedy, M.J. & Droser, M.L. 2011. Early Cambrian metazoans in fluvial environments, evidence of the non-marine Cambrian radiation. Geology, v. 39, p. 583-586).
The burrows include the vertical U-shaped forms given the name Arenicolites, which is the most common trace fossil, simple vertical tubes (Skolithus) and horizontal, meandering tubes with furrowed sides (Psammichnites). Anyone who has seen the Early Cambrian Pipe Rock of NW Scotland will also have seen these trace fossils, yet the Pipe Rock shows evidence of tidal deposition and is shallow marine. Their non-marine equivalents in California are coeval with the earliest known trilobites in the Cambrian marine sequence. It seems that whatever the burrowing animals were, they easily overcame any physiological or environmental barriers to adopting a life in freshwater, encouraged by the ready sustenance that terrestrially adapted acritarchs and cyanobacteria had provided for half a billion years previously.
In the last few decades there have been several massive programmes aimed at imaging the lithospheric structure beneath continents, often linked with a re-assessment of the various tectonic provinces thought to be present. One of the first was a joint Indian-Soviet project managed by the National Geophysical research Institute in Hyderabad to investigate the crust of South India in the 1970s, which still graces my office wall as a memento of my own contribution to unravelling the underpinnings of this ravishing area. This was followed-up by one from the Himalaya southwards, and others have focused on Britain, the Baltic Shield and the USA by the Consortium for Continental Reflection Profiling (COCORP); the last revealing in detail large-scale, low-angle thrust faulting in the Appalachians and crustal-scale detachment faults in the eastern Basin and Range. These experiments must have been great fun, as they involved detonating large amounts of high explosive to produce sufficient energy to get returns from 100 r more km below, with all the planning needed to avoid fear and loathing among the populace, let alone frightening the horses. Nowadays, most seismic profiling onshore is done using Vibroseis, best imagined as large trucks jacked up on pads on which they bounce up and down, in manner of an LA ‘lowrider’. By comparison, marine surveys are far easier, although marine mammals have seemingly had major setbacks as a result of endless closely spaced seismic lines needed for 3-D subsurface analysis. Onshore, you only get one chance and need to pick your route with great care. Now a Canadian consortium has gone one better by using state-of-the-art seismic refraction and reflection techniques (Hammer, P.T.C. et al. 2011. The big picture: A lithospheric cross section of the North American continent. GSA Today, v. 21 (June 2011 issue), p. 4-9). Uniquely, the Canadian Lithoprobe project coordinated a full spectrum of geological, geochemical, and geophysical research, covering 20 years of deep-crustal research by hundreds of contributors.
A large-format profile in a supplement to the paper shows the deep relationships in the Mesozoic Cordilleran Orogen in the west, through the plexus of Precambrian Provinces of the Canadian Shield to the Palaeozoic Orogen in the east: a tract some 6000 km from west to east. The general picture is repeated stacking of orogens, with a remarkable repetition of very similar gross tectonic styles. Clearly, large-scale compressional processes have remained largely unchanged since the middle of the Archaean, and several upper parts of long-dead subduction zones and accretionary duplexes spring from the profile. The surface picture of much of the crust crossed by the stitched-together traverses gives the impression of both complex tectonics and many plutons of different ages, yet on the grand scale of the crust and lithosphere it is the tectonics that dominates: the passage of voluminous melts towards the surface has left the plethora of gently dipping deep shear zones and faults largely unmodified. Indeed, the seismic data reveal astonishingly well-preserved subducted or delaminated crust associated with collisions that occurred 2-3 billion years ago. Despite repeated accretionary tectonics spanning 3 Ga, and the Phanerozoic erosion of the Shield to reveal its innermost and deepest secrets, the crust-mantle boundary, the Moho, is astonishingly flat, ranging from 33-43 km deep. Nor is there much sign of ‘roots’ beneath orogens in the underlying lithospheric mantle; a long standing concept that appears not to be generally supportable over this stretch of the North American continent. The synthesis raises questions as to whether the Moho has always been that shallow or whether it can, in some situations, be a dynamic ‘boundary’. For that to be the case requires that the geologic crust-mantle boundary may not always correspond to the seismic discontinuity with which the Moho has previously been correlated.
PDFs of the profile can be downloaded from ftp://rock.geosociety.org/pub/GSAToday/1106insert-hammer/
Artist's impression of the Neoproterozoic Earth during a Snowball episode. Image by guano via Flickr
The combination of glaciogenic sediments with palaeomagnetic evidence for their formation at low-latitudes, together with dates that show glacial events were coeval in just two or three Neoproterozoic episodes are the linchpins for the Snowball Earth hypothesis. There is little doubt that the latest Precambrian Era did witness such extraordinary climatic events. Evidence is also accumulating that, in some way, they were instrumental in that stage of biological evolution from which metazoan eukaryotes emerged: the spectacular Ediacaran fossil assemblages follow on the heels of the last such event (see Bigging-up the Ediacaran in Earth Pages for March 2011). One of the difficulties with the ‘hard’ Snowball Earth hypothesis is how the middle-aged planet was able to emerge from a condition of pole-to-pole ice cover; hugely increased reflectivity of that surface should have driven mean global temperature down and down. Clearly the Earth did warm up on each occasion, and the leading model for how that was possible is massive release of greenhouse gases from sea-floor sediments or deep-ocean waters to increase the heat-retaining powers of the atmosphere; sufficiently voluminous release from volcanic action seems less likely as there is little evidence of upsurges in magmatism coinciding with the events. Almost all glaciogenic units from the Neoproterozoic have an overlying cap of carbonate rocks, indicating that hydrogen carbonate (formerly bicarbonate) ions together with those of calcium and magnesium suddenly exceeded their solubilities in the oceans.
Modern sea-floor hydrothermal vent. Image via Wikipedia
To seek out a possible source for sufficient carbon release in gaseous form geochemists have turned to C-isotopes in the cap carbonates. Early studies revealed large deficits in the heavier stable isotope of carbon (13C) that seemed to suggest that the releases were from large reservoirs of carbon formed by burial of dead organisms: photosynthesis and other kinds of autotrophy at the base of the trophic pyramid selectively take up lighter 12C in forming organic tissues compared with inorganic chemical processes). As in the case of the sharp warming event at the Palaeocene-Eocene boundary around 55.8 Ma ago (See The gas-hydrate ‘gun’ in June 2003 Earth Pages), these negative d13C spikes have been interpreted as due to destabilisation of gas hydrates in sea-floor sediments to release organically formed methane gas. This powerful greenhouse gas would have quickly oxidised to CO2 thus acidifying the oceans by jacking up hydrogen carbonate ion concentrations. Detailed carbon-, oxygen- and strontium-isotope work in conjunction with petrographic textures in a Chinese cap carbonate (Bristow, T.F. et al. 2011. A hydrothermal origin for isotopically anomalous cap dolostone cements from south China. Nature, v. 274, p. 68-71) suggests an alternative mechanism to produce the isotopically light carbon signature at the end of Snowball events. The greatest 13C depletion occurs in carbonate veins that cut through the cap rock and formed at temperatures up to 378°C and even the early-formed fine grained carbonate sediment records anomalously high temperatures. So, it seems as if the cap-rock was thoroughly permeated by hydrothermal fluids, more than 1.6 Ma after it formed on the sea floor. This triggered oxidation of methane within the sediments themselves, with little if any need for an atmospheric origin through massive methane release from destabilised gas hydrates elsewhere.
Australopithecus africanus from Sterkfontein cave, South Africa. Image via Wikipedia
Strontium isotopes and australopithecine habits
Viewers of Channel 4’s Time Team will be used to seeing eating habits and places of habitation being derived from strontium isotopic analyses of the teeth of modern humans found by archaeologists. The methods enabled scientists to work out where ‘Ötzi the Iceman’, whose mummified remains were found on the alpine border of Austria and Italy, hailed from: it was most likely to have been the South Tyrol province of Italy. Other isotopes (nitrogen and carbon) shows that he was predominantly vegetarian; i.e. he was neither a hunter, nor an especially privileged member of Tyrolean Chalcolithic society.
The same methods offer insights into the life styles of far earlier hominins and has recently been used on teeth of australopithecines (Australopithecus africanusandParanthropus robustus) found in the famous Sterkfontein and Swartkrans caves South Africa (Copeland, S.R. et al. 2011. Strontium isotope evidence for landscape use by early hominins. Nature, v. 474, p. 76-78). The caves formed in Precambrian dolomites and it was expected that all the teeth would show signs that the individuals from whose jaws they were collected lived their entire lives in a small tract of dolomites (~30 km2) surrounding the caves. For large individuals that was indeed the case, but teeth from smaller fossils show 87Sr/86Sr ratios that are significantly different from those characteristic of local rocks and soils. That suggests the smaller individuals came from further afield than the restricted tract of carbonate strata. Although pelvic remains are normally the best guide to the sex of primate fossils, they are less frequently found than those of crania and dentition. Size variations of adults in a primate species, however, may indicate sexual dimorphism – larger males than females – and this is well-accepted for australopithecines. The implication is that for both species males had small home ranges on the dolomites, or that they preferred that tract. Yet females had dispersed from their parental groups and moved into the area.
Most living primates do not show this kind of sexual dispersion pattern, termed male philopatry, it being common among modern humans, chimpanzees and bonobos. In the case of the australopithecines that were being studied, both were diminutive creatures living in open savannah with risks of predation from a range of large carnivores. Perhaps the bands living in the dolomite area had better refuges in caves than those elsewhere, and therefore able to attract females.
Arctic Neanderthals
A Mousterian stone point, possibly for a spear. Image via Wikipedia
The last Neanderthals known to have been alive were close to the southernmost limit of Europe, in caves on the Rock of Gibraltar at about 24 ka, shortly before the last glacial maximum. Their remains have been found in a >6000 km west-east zone at temperate latitudes, south of 50°N, which extended from western Europe to the Denisova cave in the Altai republic of Russia (50°N, 87°E). This suggests that they subsisted in deciduous woodland and temperate steppe, diffusing southwards as conditions cooled during 2 or 3 past glacial periods. Consequently, sites at higher northern latitudes that preserve only cultural remains – Palaeolithic tools – have hitherto been regarded as signs of fully modern human occupation; it takes considerable skill to distinguish Neanderthal from early modern human artefacts, which are very similar during the time of overlapping occupation (~40-30 ka). A site in northern Siberia at Byzovaya in the Polar Urals, close to the Arctic circle, is a case in point. A French, Norwegian and Russian team of archaeologists re-examined the site (Slimak, L. et al. 2011. Late Mousterian persistence near the Arctic Circle. Science, v. 332, p. 841-845) and dated it to between 31-34 ka. They also analysed a suite of stone tools, finding that they are directly comparable with Mousterian (Middle Palaeolithic) implements from western Europe rather than products of modern human’s industry of similar antiquity. At that time high-latitude climate was well on its way to frigid, dry conditions (there were no substantial continental ice sheets in northern Russia). The animal remains found at the site were dominated by those of mammoth, with minor proportions of other cold-steppe large mammals, such as woolly rhino, musk ox, horse and bear.
A notable feature of the results is that they suggest that Neanderthals, or others people with a Mousterian culture, were occupying this bleak terrain at roughly the same time as modern humans, who left considerably richer suites of artefacts, including tools, ornaments and figurines carved from bone and ivory, but were after more or less the same prey species. Both groups clearly were able to cope with and thrive on the harsh conditions, until recently only within the scope of highly specialised cultures such as the Innuit and original Siberian peoples. The dating shows that whoever produced and used the Mousterian tools not only shared the terrane with modern humans, but lingered until well after the previously accepted time (~37 ka) of the Neanderthals’ demise except for a few refuges in the Iberian Peninsula and Balkans. Despite the occupation of northern Siberia by different cultural groups, until their bones are found who they were is not certain. Denisova Cave showed that Neanderthals and the genetically different Denisovans co-occupied temperate central Siberia (see Other rich hominin pickings in the May 2010 issue of EPN) so there are currently two options.
Suilven, a spectacular outlier of Torridonian terrestrial sandstones resting on a buried landscape of Archaean gneisses near Lochinver, Sutherland. Image via Wikipedia
Geologists often assume that the continents were first colonised by plants, insects then vertebrates beginning in the Ordovician Period with preservation of spores very like those of the liverworts, which incidentally can only be removed from gravel driveways by the use of acetic acid, glyphosate, pycloram and flamethrowers having no lasting effect. The most intractable of all organisms found on the land surface today are prokaryotic (nucleus-free cells) cyanobacteria whose biofilms cement desert varnish (see Desert varnish, May 2008 in Subjects: GIS and Remote Sensing). Cyanobacteria have long been suspected to have been the first life forms to adopt a terrestrial habit, and their cells have been discovered in the now-famous Neoproterozoic lagerstätten in the Doushantuo Formation of China (see The earliest lichens, May 2005 in Subjects: Geobiology, palaeontology, and evolution) The oldest un-metamorphosed sediments in Britain, the Torridonian redbeds that form the magnificent scenery of north-western Scotland, now push back the date of the earliest eukaryotic (cells with nuclei) terrestrial life, of which we are one form, half a billion years before the Doushanto cyanobacteria (Strother, P.K. et al. 2011. Earth’s earliest non-marine eukaryotes. Nature, v. 473, p. 505-509). The Torridonian is one of the thickest (~12 km) terrestrial sequences on the planet, and spans a time range of around 200 Ma (1.2 to 1 Ga). It is a repository of almost the entire range of humid continental sedimentary environments: colluvial fan; bajada; alluvial; deltaic and lacustrine build-ups. Grey lake-bed mudstones and phosphate nodules in the Torridonian yield small organic fossils lumped in the sack-term acritarchs. Similar bodies, whose affinities are diverse and generally obscure, have been reported from marine sediments as old as 3.2 Ga. The fascination of those from the Torridonian, other than their terrestrial association, is that some include aggregates of spherical cells with tantalising suggestions of central nuclei and, as a whole assemblage, exhibit a range of morphologies far beyond that of nucleus-free prokaryotes and the signature of cytoskeletal filaments that form a ‘scaffold’ for eukaryote cells. Worth noting is that one of the authors is Martin Brasier of Oxford University, whose meticulous bio-morphological skills in microscopy has made him one of the foremost critics of speculation on Precambrian microfossils (see Doubt cast on earliest bacterial fossils April 2003 in Subjects: Geobiology, palaeontology, and evolution). The authors opine that the ecological diversity of freshwater and land systems, and the physico-chemical stress associated with repeated wetting and desiccation compared with the marine domain may have been instrumental in origination of the Eucarya, which should give the Torridonian a scientific reputation that extends beyond these shores.
One of the surprises concerning the dinosaurs was that some species were able to live at near-polar latitudes. The surprise is not about their ability to survive a cold climate for the Cretaceous world was one characterised by greenhouse conditions and ice-free polar regions swathed in forests. On top of that, evidence is accumulating that some dinosaurs at least were able to regulate their body temperature; they may have been warm-blooded. The oddity is that they were able to survive the winter darkness of latitudes above those of the Arctic and Antarctic Circles. It now seems that some groups of dinosaurs evolved excellent night-time vision (Schmitz, L. & Motani, R. 2011. Nocturnality in dinosaurs inferred from scleral ring and orbit morphology. Science, v. 332, p. 705-708). Not only did some have large eyes, but preservation of the fibrous outer ring of the eye or sclera – the ‘whites’ in our case – in some large-eyed dinosaurs shows a reduction in width that is characteristic of good scotopic or night vision. Since much of the polar ‘night’ is more like twilight than perpetually full darkness, enhanced night vision would have allowed high-latitude dinosaurs to survive winter by crepuscular feeding habits. This more or less extinguishes the notional day-night duality of terrestrial vertebrate life during the Mesozoic; dinosaurs by day and early mammals by night that allowed mammalian ancestors to escape the clutches of dinosaur predators. Indeed many Mesozoic mammals show signs of diurnality.
On 11 May 2011, the Geological Society of London hosted a conference, co-sponsored by the British Geological Survey, to discuss evidence for the dawn of a new geological Epoch: the Anthropocene, supposed to mark the impact on the Earth of our species. The Society, and no doubt others internationally, is interested in gathering thoughts, reflections and observations about the Anthropocene. There is indeed a a powerful and vocal, though not necessarily large, lobby directed at the International Commission on Stratigraphy (ICS) to enshrine this new division. That lobby has been active since 2000 (see: No escape from global warming; Changing the world; Epoch, Age, Zone or Nonsense in EPN issues of November 2000, April 2005 and March 2008 respectively)
We currently live in the Holocene (‘entirely recent’), an Epoch with ICS imprimatur. Yet the last 11.7 ka has been but one of very many interglacials since about 2.6 Ma ago; the start of the Pleistocene Epoch and the Quaternary Period – Arduino’s last surviving division of geological time, and lately resurrected from an untimely demise! The ‘golden spike’ for the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary is at the agreed combination of signals – ‘deuterium excess values, accompanied by more gradual changes in 18O, dust concentration, a range of chemical species, and annual layer thickness’ – of the end of the Younger Dryas/Greenland Stadial 1 in a single Greenland ice core (NGRIP) held in a cold store in Copenhagen.
The Holocene itself was based on anthropocentric grounds; i.e. it roughly coincides with the transition from human foraging to sedentary life, agriculture, the relentless development of exploitation of the majority of humans and the commodification of the physical and organic environments following the Younger Dryas stadial. I guess that paraphrases how the ‘Anthropocene’ is proposed to be defined – a signal of the beginning of irreversible global change due to human activities whose future we cannot predict.
Even if it was possible to agree on some definitive signal of the onset of human-induced global change in the geological record there remains the formal difficulty for the ICS of agreeing on the location as well as the age and likely durability of the GSSP that would mark the beginning of the ‘Anthropocene’. The originator of the idea, Nobel Prize winning chemist Paul Crutzen, argued vaguely for the ‘start of the Industrial Revolution’. Recently it has been proposed by some to be 6 August 1945 marked by long-lived radioactive fallout from the atomic massacres of civilians at Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Quaternary researchers decided some time back that the ‘present’ (as in ‘before present’ or b.p.) should be the year 1950 when atmospheric testing of thermonuclear weapons created excess 14C that will make radiocarbon dating of the next 50 ka somewhat more uncertain than it otherwise would have been. The ICS may well have a lengthy debate on its hands if the proposal ever reaches its deliberations.
Furthermore, the advocates are concerned that we are living in the transition into their ‘Anthropocene’ and that it will be so rapid and biologically disastrous as to manifest itself in stratigraphic sections of the future as a mass-extinction event. No previous mass extinction event has been allocated epochal status, being so brief, though never so brief (~10 ka) as the Holocene or any other interglacial of the past 2.6 Ma.
All that I can conclude is that should there still be geologists in, say, a million years time, who will be living in conditions and possessing intellects about which we would be ill advised to guess, they will still be in awe of the vast tracts of geological time and their stratigraphic and tectonic records over the last 4.55 Ga. Consequently, it is possible that they may well regard the then ancient proposal for an ‘Anthropocene’ as premature, hubristic and not a little reminiscent of the fable of Chicken Little; a humorous legacy of their somewhat startled predecessors. By all means let us be concerned about and take action to halt adverse human influences on the planet, but sloganeering to climb aboard a bandwagon does neither. At the Geological Society meeting, Paul Crutzen observed “… it will probably take another 20 years before it is formally accepted.” Thank goodness for a sense of reality: we may all be extinct by then…
Added 12 August 2011: Between 11.5 and 3.5 ka the greatest event in the evolution of modern humans took place on all continents except Australia and Antarctica; a foraging lifestyle gave way to settlement and the domestication of both plants and animals – the Neolithic Agricultural Revolution. The production of surplus value, stored in the form of livestock herds and grain, marked by this transition set humanity on the road to its current social, ecological and economic crisis. Interestingly, William Ruddiman of the University of Virginia in 2005 noted a shift in the CO2 content of glacial ice around 8 ka, which he ascribed to intense farming and suggested that if there were to be an Anthropocene Epoch it should coincide with the start of agriculture. Combining geological and societal factors points unerringly to the start of the Holocene, so there is little need for a new Epoch. That sensible view receives support from a palaeo-demographic survey of 133 burial sites in the Northern Hemisphere: some before the local transition to agriculture, others following it (Boquet-Appel, J.-P. 2011. When the world’s population took off: the springboard of the Neolithic demographic transition. Science, v. 333, p. 560-561). The proportion of 5 to 19 year-old remains in the cemeteries shows a marked rise in the thousand years after the first local signs of agriculture thereafter to stabilise at a new higher level. This indicates a significant increase in female fertility, perhaps by as much as two births per woman. That would set in train the relentless, 1200-fold rise in world population from the estimated 6 million at the start of the Holocene to 7 billion at present.
Rio de Janeiro, a threatened city? Image by Alcindo Correa Filho via Flickr
Earthquake prediction has not had a good record, but it seems that vastly larger tectonic processes are now becoming the subject of risk analysis (Nikolaeva, K. et al. 2011. Numerical analysis of subduction initiation risk along the Atlantic American passive margins. Geology, v. 39, p. 463-466). The Swiss, Russian and Portuguese authors focus on the old (Jurassic ~170 Ma) and presumably cold oceanic lithosphere on the western flank of the Atlantic, against both the North and South American continents. Increased density with ageing imparts a potential downwards force, but that has to overcome resistance to plate failure at passive margins. The dominance of upper continental lithosphere by rheologically weak quartz tends to make it more likely to fail than more or less quartz-free oceanic lithosphere. So, if subduction at a passive continental margin is to take place, then where and when it begins depends on the nature of the abutting continental lithosphere. That on the Atlantic’s western flank varies a lot, ranging from 75-150 km thick. Consequently the temperature at the Moho, the junction between continental lithosphere and weaker asthenosphere, varies too. The loading by marginal sedimentation also plays a role, as do continent-wide forces associated with far-distant mountain ranges, such as the Western Cordillera and Andes, and the forces from opposed sea-floor spreading from the Juan de Fuca and East Pacific systems that affect the whole of western South America, most of Central America and the far NW of North America.
Analysing all pertinent forces acting along 9 lines of section through both North and South America, the authors’ focus fell on the relatively thin continental lithosphere of the Atlantic margin of South America. It is at its thinnest along the southernmost part of the margin adjacent to Brazil, where the Moho temperature reaches as high as 735°C: the weakest link in the American continental lithosphere, where there is seismicity and also indications of igneous activity. The modelling suggests that incipient deformation may begin off southern Brazil within 4 Ma to form a zone of overthrusting, eventually evolving towards failure of the ocean-continent interface and the start of proper subduction in the succeeding 20 Ma. Other stretches of the eastern Americas are deemed safe from subduction for considerably longer by virtue of their greater thickness, lower Moho temperatures and thus higher strength. It is an interesting situation because, insofar as I understand plate tectonics, extensional or compressional failure needed to generate plate boundaries must also propagate from the weak spots that first fail; plate boundaries are lines not points. If that does not happen, then the very strength of the overwhelming longer continent-ocean interface will surely prevent subduction at a single, albeit weak link.
Media coverage of the disasters following the magnitude 9.0 earthquake of 11 March 2011 that devastated the north-eastern coast of Honshu, Japan around the city of Sendai is now (early May) fitful and dominated by the aftermath of the tsunamis’ effect on the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. For those who escaped the tsunamis the experience is irredeemably seared on their memory. Unlike the great waves that killed 10 times more people around the Indian Ocean on 26 December 2004, it will also be unforgettable for those of us far from the event who witnessed the lengthy, high-definition footage captured during the black-water torrents that swept all before them far inland. But that is no longer ‘news’…
Only 6 to 7 weeks later lessons are being learned that probably should have been anticipated long before. Japan has the world’s best disaster preparedness systems. They are centred on civil engineering that was proven to resist great earthquakes by that of 11 March; the terrifying tremors resulted in far fewer casualties than would have been the case anywhere else under such conditions. The tragedy lay with the magnitude of the tsunamis – as high as 30 m in some areas – that reached the coast within an hour of the seismic event. As well as the devastation and loss of life along the coast and up fertile low-lying valleys, waves of this size swept over defences of the coastal Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant cutting off emergency power supplies: the world’s largest tsunami barriers proved inadequate to the task and near-meltdown ensued.
Despite the densest network of seismometers anywhere and in-place earthquake early-warning and risk-assessment systems, the events were not forecast and the only warning was that of the earthquake itself which alerted a well-versed population to the imminence of tsunamis to follow. Public education and preparedness proved to be the major life saver, except of course for those tragically killed or lost without trace. So what went wrong?
The risk assessment and warning systems produced results that bore little relation to the actual seismic shaking; the warning was for the immediate vicinity of Sendai city to experience the highest intensities (5-6), most of the rest of Honshu, including Tokyo, having expected intensities in the 2-4 range. For Fukushima Daiichi a maximum magnitude of 7.2 in its vicinity was predicted to have less than 10% chance of occurring over the next 50 years. In reality seismometers across the whole eastern part of the Honshu north of Tokyo recorded intensities between 5-7, demonstrated graphically by numerous CCT recordings in shops and offices. The emerging opinion is that the theory and historic data used for risk and warning systems are flawed or inadequate. For instance the earthquake ripped along 400 km of the Japan Trench subduction zone rather than being a point source – a lesson also from the Sumatra earthquake of 26 December 2004, when ocean-floor thrusting extended 1200 km northwards to the Andaman Islands. Great earthquakes are far too infrequent for sufficient modern-style seismic data to have been collected for previous cases in the 20th century, but it seems clear since 2004 that: (1) stresses accumulate to unexpectedly high values where opposed plates are coupled or stuck together; (2) the ‘point-source’ model for earthquakes, which the use of seismic focuses and epicentres pinpointed by the world-wide seismic network encourages, is far from reality, the more so for the biggest stress accumulations; (3) existing approaches will fail for events with magnitudes greater than 8.0.
NOAA's Prediction of 11 March tsunami wave heights across Pacific Ocean. Image by cogito ergo imago via Flickr
Part of the problem is the sparse record of great earthquakes and the likelihood that, if they do have cyclicity, it may be of the order of hundreds to thousands of years. Historical sources record a large earthquake and tsunamis affecting Sendai district in 869 CE (Common Era), confirmed recently by geologists having located a typical tsunami deposit extending 3-4 km up the Sendai Plain, compared with more than 5 km in March 2011. The survey team claimed at the time that their discovery might indicate far higher risk now in the area than modelled ‘officially’. Sadly, evaluating the prediction was incomplete when disaster did strike. Geoscientists can map faults, infer the length of their activity and work out the mechanisms whereby they fail, but apart from historical data – often sketchy – pinpointing and quantifying past events is beyond us, Looking at more widespread secondary effects, tsunami deposits in particular that often contain dateable organic debris, seems a fruitful way forward for coastal areas likely to bear the brunt of both shaking and huge inundations and the powerful ebbing of their flood waters. That is a topic in its infancy, but likely now to burgeon.
Ominously, because great earthquakes are so rare along any plate boundary, for seven greater than magnitude 8 to occur worldwide in a matter of 6 years (Sumatra, 2004, 9.1, 2005, 8.8, and three with magnitude >7 in 2010; Kuril Islands, 2006, 8.3, 2007, 8.1; Sichuan, 2008, 8.0; Chile, 2010, 8.8; Japan, 2011, 9.0) raises the questions, do they occur in time clusters, and if so, why? Although the numbers are small enough to strain statistics, comparing the last six years with the previous century or so of seismometer recordings shows that great earthquakes have never occurred so frequently. Is there a domino effect so that, say, energy from the Sumatran earthquake of late 2004 has somehow been transmitted throughout the interconnected subduction-zone system to destabilise other highly stressed areas? It is widely acknowledged that in one subduction system there is evidence of clustering, and this may extend to the two great earthquakes (2006 and 2007) in the Kuril Islands on the same boundary as the Sendai event, and two off Sumatra (2004 and 2005) with three more with magnitude >7 in 2010 on what previously had been regarded as a relatively quiescent subduction zone. Analysing all recorded seismic events greater than magnitude 5 to improve the statistics suggests that clustering does not extend to global scales, yet great earthquakes buck other trends shown by lesser ones. Their motions both vertical and lateral could conceivably cause widespread destabilisation, yet worryingly the only test of the idea is the occurrence of yet more in the next few years.
Sources: Normile, D. et al. 2011. Devastating earthquake defied expectations. Science, v. 331, p. 1375-1376; Brahic, C. et al. 2011. Megaquake aftermath. New Scientist, v. 209 (19 March 2011), p. 6-8; Cyranoski, D. Japan faces up to failure of its earthquake preparations. Nature, v. 471, p. 556-557; Normile, D. 2011. Scientific consensus on great quake came too late. Science, v. 332, p. 22-23.
See also: Geller, R.J. 2011. Shake-up time for Japanese seismology. Nature, v. 472, p. 407-409; Kerr, R.A. 2011. New Work reinforces megaquake’s harsh lessons in geoscience. Science, v. 332, p. 911
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