Tag: sulfur

The prospect of climate chaos following major volcano eruptions

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It hardly needs saying that volcanoes present a major hazard to people living in close proximity. The inhabitants of the Roman cities of Herculaneum and Pompeii in the shadow of Vesuvius were snuffed out by an incandescent pyroclastic during the 79 CE eruption of the volcano. Since December 2023 long-lasting eruptions from the Sundhnúksgígar crater row on the Reykjanes Penisula of Iceland have driven the inhabitants of nearby Grindavík from their homes, but no injuries or fatalities have been reported. Far worse was the 1815 eruption of Tambora on Sumbawa, Indonesia, when at least 71,000 people perished. But that event had much wider consequences, which lasted into 1817 at least. As well as an ash cloud the huge plume from Tambora injected 28 million tons of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. In the form of sulfuric acid aerosols, this reflected so much solar energy back into space that the Northern Hemisphere cooled by 1° C, making 1816 ‘the year without a summer’. Crop failures in Europe and North America doubled grain prices, leading to widespread social unrest and economic depression. That year also saw unusual weather in India culminate in a cholera outbreak, which spread to unleash the 1817 global pandemic. Tambora is implicated in a global death toll in the tens of millions. Thanks to the record of sulfur in Greenland ice cores it has proved possible to link past volcanic action to historic famines and epidemics, such as the Plague of Justinian in 541 CE. If they emit large amounts of sulfur gases volcanic eruptions can result in sudden global climatic downturns.

The ash plume towering above Pinatubo volcano in the Philippines on 12 June 1991, which rose to 40 km (Credit: Karin Jackson U.S. Air Force)

With this in mind Markus Stoffel, Christophe Corona and Scott St. George of the University of Geneva, Switzerland, CNRS, Grenoble France and global insurance brokers WTW, London, respectively, have published a Comment in Nature warning of this kind of global hazard (Stoffel, M., Corona, C. & St. George, S. 2024.  The next massive volcano eruption will cause climate chaos — we are unprepared. Nature v. 635, p. 286-289; DOI: 10.1038/d41586-024-03680-z). The crux of their argument is that there has been nothing approaching the scale of Tambora for the last two centuries. The 1991 eruption of Pinatubo fed the stratosphere with just over a quarter of Tambora’s complement of SO2, and decreased global temperatures by around 0.6°C during 1991-2. Should one so-called Decade Volcanoes – those located in densely populated areas, such as Vesuvius – erupt within the next five years actuaries at Lloyd’s of London estimate economic impacts of US$ 3 trillion in the first year and US$1.5 trillion over the following years. But that is based on just the local risk of ash falls, lava and pyroclastic flows, mud slides and lateral collapse, not global climatic effects. So, a Tambora-sized or larger event is not countenanced by the world’s most famous insurance underwriter: probably because its economic impact is incalculable. Yet the chances of such a repeat certainly are conceivable. A 60 ka record of sulfate in the Greenland ice cores allows the probability of eruptions on the scale of Tambora to be estimated. The data suggest that there is a one-in-six chance that one will occur somewhere during the 21st century, but not necessarily at a site judged by volcanologists to be precarious . Nobody expected the eruption from the Pacific Ocean floor of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano on January 15, 2022: the largest in the last 30 years.

The authors insist that climate-changing eruptions now need to be viewed in the context of anthropogenic global warming. Superficially, it might seem that a few volcanic winters and years without a summer could be a welcome, albeit short-term, solution. However, Stoffel, Corona and St. George suggest that the interaction of a volcano-induced global cooling with climatic processes would probably be very complex. Global warming heats the lower atmosphere and cools the stratosphere. Such steady changes will affect the height to which explosive volcanic plumes may reach. Atmospheric circulation patterns are changing dramatically as the weather of 2024 seems to show. The same may be said for ocean currents that are changing as sea-surface temperatures increase. Superimposing volcano-induced cooling of the sea surface adds an element of chaos to what is already worrying. What if a volcanic winter coincided with an el Niño event? The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that projects climate changes is ‘flying blind’ as regards volcanic cooling. Another issue is that our knowledge of the effects in 1815 of Tambora concerned a very different world from ours: a global population then that was eight times smaller than now; very different patterns of agriculture and habitation; a world with industrial production on a tiny proportion of the continental surface. Stoffel, Corona and St. George urge the IPCC to shed light on this major blind spot. Climate modellers need to explore the truly worst-case scenarios since a massive volcanic eruption is bound to happen one day. Unlike global warming from greenhouse-gas emission, there is absolutely nothing that can be done to avert another Tambora.

Origin of animals at a time of chaotic oxygen levels

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Every organism that you can easily see is a eukaryote, the vast majority of which depend on the availability of oxygen molecules. The range of genetic variation in a wide variety of eukaryotes suggests, using a molecular ‘clock’, that the first of them arose between 2000 to 1000 Ma ago. It possibly originated as a symbiotic assemblage of earlier prokaryote cells ‘bagged-up’ within a single cell wall: Lynn Margulis’s hypothesis of endosymbiosis. It had to have happened after the Great Oxygenation Event (GOE 2.4 to 2.2 Ga), before which free oxygen was present in the seas and atmosphere only at vanishingly small concentrations. Various single-celled fossil possibilities have been suggested to be the oldest members of the Eukarya but are not especially prepossessing, except for one bizarre assemblage in Gabon. The first inescapable sign that eukaryotes were around is the appearance of distinctive organic biomarkers in sediments about 720 Ma old. The Neoproterozoic is famous for its Snowball Earth episodes and the associated multiplicity of large though primitive animals during the Ediacaran Period (see: The rise of the eukaryotes; December 2017).

The records of carbon- and sulfur isotopes in Neo- and Mesoproterozoic sedimentary rocks are more or less flat lines after a mighty hiccup in the carbon and sulfur cycles that followed the GOE and the earliest recorded major glaciation of the Earth. The time between 2.0 and 1.0 Ga has been dubbed ‘the Boring Billion’. At about 900 Ma, both records run riot. Sulfur isotopes in sediments reveal the variations of sulfides and sulfates on the seafloor, which signify reducing and oxidising conditions respectively.  The δ13C record charts the burial of organic carbon and its release from marine sediments related to reducing and oxidising conditions in deep water. There were four major ‘excursions’ of δ13C during the Neoproterozoic, which became increasingly extreme. From constant anoxic, reducing conditions throughout the Boring Billion the Late Neoproterozoic ocean-floor experienced repeated cycles of low and high oxygenation reflected in sulfide and sulfate precipitation and by fluctuations in trace elements whose precipitation depends on redox conditions. By the end of the Cambrian, when marine animals were burgeoning, deep-water oxic-anoxic cycles had been smoothed out, though throughout the Phanerozoic eon anoxic events crop up from time to time.

Atmospheric levels of free oxygen relative to that today (scale is logarithmic) computed using combined carbon- and sulfur isotope records from marine sediments since 1500 Ma ago. The black line is the mean of 5,000 model runs, the grey area represents ±1 standard deviations. The pale blue area represents previous ‘guesstimates’. Vertical yellow bars are the three Snowball Earth events of the Late Neoproterozoic (Sturtian, Marinoan and Gaskiers). (Credit: Krause et al., Fig 1a)

The Late Neoproterozoic redox cycles suggest that oxygen levels in the oceans may have fluctuated too. But there are few reliable proxies for free oxygen. Until recently, individual proxies could only suggest broad, stepwise changes in the availability of oxygen: around 0.1% of modern abundance after the GOE until about 800 Ma; a steady rise to about 10% during the Late Neoproterozoic; a sharp rise to an average of roughly 80% at during the Silurian attributed to increased photosynthesis by land plants. But over the last few decades geochemists have devised a new approach based on variations on carbon and sulfur isotope data from which powerful software modelling can make plausible inferences about varying oxygen levels. Results from the latest version have just been published (Krause, A.J. et al. 2022. Extreme variability in atmospheric oxygen levels in the late Precambrian. Science Advances, v. 8, article 8191; DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abm8191).

Alexander Krause of Leeds University, UK, and colleagues from University College London, the University of Exeter, UK and the Univerisité Claude Bernard, Lyon, France show that atmospheric oxygen oscillated between ~1 and 50 % of modern levels during the critical 740 to 540 Ma period for the origin and initial diversification of animals. Each major glaciation was associated with a rapid decline, whereas oxygen levels rebounded during the largely ice-free episodes. By the end of the Cambrian Period (485 Ma), by which time the majority of animal phyla had emerged, there appear to have been six such extreme cycles.

Entirely dependent on oxygen for their metabolism, the early animals faced periodic life-threatening stresses. In terms of oxygen availability the fluctuations are almost two orders of magnitude greater than those that animal life faced through most of the Phanerozoic. Able to thrive and diversify during the peaks, most animals of those times faced annihilation as O2 levels plummeted. These would have been periods when natural selection was at its most ruthless in the history of metazoan life on Earth. Its survival repeatedly faced termination, later mass extinctions being only partial threats. Each of those Phanerozoic events was followed by massive diversification and re-occupation of abandoned and new ecological niches. So too those Neoproterozoic organism that survived each massive environmental threat may have undergone adaptive radiation involving extreme changes in their form and function. The Ediacaran fauna was one that teemed on the sea floor, but with oxygen able to seep into the subsurface other faunas may have been evolving there exploiting dead organic matter. The only signs of that wholly new ecosystem are the burrows that first appear in the earliest Cambrian rocks. Evolution there would have ben rife but only expressed by those phyla that left it during the Cambrian Explosion.

There is a clear, empirical link between redox shifts and very large-scale glacial and deglaciation events. Seeking a cause for the dramatic cycles of climate, oxygen and life is not easy. The main drivers of the greenhouse effect CO2­ and methane had to have been involved, i.e. the global carbon cycle. But what triggered the instability after the ‘Boring Billion’? The modelled oxygen record first shows a sudden rise to above 10% of modern levels at about 900 Ma, with a short-lived tenfold decline at 800 Ma. Could the onset have had something to do with a hidden major development in the biosphere: extinction of prokaryote methane generators; explosion of reef-building and oxygen-generating stromatolites? How about a tectonic driver, such as the break-up of the Rodinia supercontinent? Then there are large extraterrestrial events … Maybe the details provided by Krause et al. will spur others to imaginative solutions. See also: How fluctuating oxygen levels may have accelerated animal evolution. Science Daily, 14 October 2022