‘Peace’ (Selam) disturbed

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The Afar Depression of Ethiopia, especially the middle reaches of the Awash River, has become world renowned as the cradle for early humanity. After the revolutionising discovery in 1974 in the Hadar area of the 3.3 Ma old Australopithecus afarensis remains that became known as ‘Lucy’, other finds – Ardepithecus, Orrorin and Sahelanthropus hit the headlines, pushing back the age of possible human ancestors to almost 7 Ma. None of these had Lucy’s degree of preservation, and the vital issue for the origin of humanity – bipedalism – could only be addressed by scanty evidence about the position of attachment of the cranium to the spine. Much else had to be inferred from teeth and facial shape, and odd bits of long limb bones. Lucy and remains of other A. afarensis individuals that rain progressively washes from the badlands of Hadar provide an embarrassment of riches by comparison. There is little doubt that could walk upright, but a question that has lingered is whether or not it also clambered habitually in trees. The other missing information is the vital one of development, for one big difference between apes and us is the grossly extended infancy of modern humans during which the attributes of consciousness, language and much else that is unique arise. To get a grip on developmental issues demands near-complete juvenile remains. The oldest infant fossils that come close are those of a Neanderthal child from 100 ka ago. A dramatic paper (Alemseged, Z. et al. 2006. A juvenile early hominin skeleton from Dikika, Ethiopia. Nature, v. 443, p. 296-301) brings the spotlight back to Middle Awash and to A. afarensis.

The drama has been long in the making. Zeresenay Alemseged, an Ethiopian working in Germany, made the initial find in 2000, collecting more material and painstakingly exposing bones from their sandstone matrix, grain by grain, over the last 5 years. The skull and dentition are complete, and bar the pelvis, lower spine and some limb bones, so is the rest of the skeleton. Morphology points unerringly to A. afarensis, and the stratigraphic position is the same as that entombing ‘Lucy’. Even without the inferences that can be drawn from it, preservation of a complete body is a near-miracle that ranks with that of the ‘Turkana Boy’ (H. ergaster) and ‘Lucy’. The entombing sediments are those of a small stream, which discharged to a large lake that occupied parts of the Middle Awash area during the Pliocene, so that the body was quickly enclosed in fine sands, possibly after the child was washed away in a flash flood. The jaws contain adult teeth waiting to erupt and, by comparison with chimpanzees, they suggest an age at death of about three years, although comparison with human children would probably give an older estimate. The shape of the adult teeth is similar to those of female, so the infant is a ‘she’. Much more work needs to be done on ‘Selam’ (Peace in Amharic), but that reported so far bears strongly on the issue of bipedalism. The shoulder blades and semi-circular canals of the ear, on which balance depends, are ape-like, and a finger bone is curved like that of a chimpanzee. ‘Selam’ was equipped for climbing, but she has leg and foot bones with more human affinities, which would enable upright walking as well. Being a near-complete individual, ‘Selam’ can be compared with whole adult A. afarensis specimens, notably ‘Lucy’, and with modern apes and humans, to assess the crucial issue of development that should throw light on just how close the species was to a transition to the human species that arose about a million years later.

Interestingly, the same issue of Nature includes a mini-biography of the Tunisian-born geologist Maurice Taib. He was the first to work on the terrestrial Pliocene sediments of the middle reaches of the Awash River, thereby opening to road to palaeoanthropolical fame for the likes of Don Johanson, Tim White and two generations of Ethiopian scientists, whom Taib played a major role in training and encouraging (Dalton, R. 2006. The history man. Nature, v. 443, p. 268-269).

See also: Wood, B. 2006. A precious little bundle. Nature, v. 443, p. 278-281. Wynn, J.G. et al. 2006. Geological and palaeontological context of a Pliocene juvenile hominin at Dikika, Ethiopia. Nature, v. 443, p. 332-336.

Drying East Africa

The 7 Ma recorded history of humans and their hominin ancestors was almost exclusively East African, until early members of the genus Homo began to migrate in pulses after about 1.8 Ma. Exodus from Africa on several occasions has been linked with climate change or the opening of routes by falls in sea level during periods of massive ice accumulation at high northern latitudes. Likewise, the evolutionary adoption of a bipedal gait by formerly forest-dwelling apes was probably driven by climate change that saw the spread of more open savannah ecosystems. Records from fossil assemblages in river and lake-bed sediments of East Africa, and from pollen in nearby sea-floor sediments do show a reduction in woodland cover and a spread of grasslands since the Upper Miocene (6 to 8 Ma) – the period of hominin adaptive radiation. Most workers on African climate change in the Neogene attribute the shift to cooling, either through a fall in atmospheric CO2 or the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Yet East Africa has its own engine for climate and ecosystem change: the formation of the great Rift system and the uplift associated with it. While recognised as a climatic influence tectonics in the region has been downplayed by comparison with global shifts. That is surprising, since in the last 20 Ma, and perhaps more recently, what was an area of low relief has been transformed while rift shoulders rose to more than 3 km, from Eritrea in the north to Malawi 6000 km to the south.

Before rifting began, flood volcanism poured out a basaltic veneer in the late Eocene to mid-Oligocene, to achieve a thickness of more than 2 km in Ethiopia. Rather than creating high ground the flood basalts, being denser than continental crust, probably caused subsidence that roughly maintained low surface elevations. The achieved their present high elevations in the Ethiopian Plateau no earlier than the late Miocene. Large plateaux deflect low altitude winds and seem certain to have influenced climate on a regional scale, as did the Tibetan Plateau. The timing and pace of East African uplift remains poorly constrained, partly because geological evidence shows highly episodic tectonics, with periods of seeming quiescence between episodes of extensive and profound faulting and uplift, and partly because many of the rocks involved are sparsely dated. Yet the present topography and geological infrastructure are sufficiently well known that modelling any morphological influence on climate is possible.  By considering several plausible tectonic scenarios, a team of French palaeoclimatologists have modelled the possibilities (Sepulchre, P. et al. 2006. Tectonic uplift and eastern Africa aridification. Science, v. 313, p. 1419-1423). Their models show that uplift may have shifted atmospheric circulation drastically to establish the strong seasonality that dominates the region nowadays. Applying their results to likely ecosystems results in a pattern of decreased tree-cover.

While convincing, Sepulchre and colleagues’ work demands more precise timing for the establishment of sufficient tectonic topography. Nevertheless, it shows that events, arguably beginning at the core-mantle boundary, that triggered East Africa’s dominant tectonic influence, the Afar plume, probably conditioned our own eventual emergence.

A lot closer in time is an analysis of climate change in the Eastern Sahara desert since the end of the Younger Dryas (<12 ka) that devotees of the ‘English Patient’ will find revealing (Kuper, K. & Kröpelin, S. 2006. Climate-controlled Holocene occupation in the Sahara: motor of Africa’s evolution. Science, v. 313, p. 803-807. Being based on 150 archaeological excavations, the account of sudden humidity after 8.5 ka and then slow aridification since 5.3 ka is persuasive background to the rise of the pharaonic kingdoms of the Nile once nomadic Saharan pastoralism slowly became impossible.

Asian migrations reviewed

Sometime between 100 and 60 ka, fully modern humans found their way from Africa to the Far East and beyond. The timing and the issue of how many migrations were involved are topics in turmoil, now that genetic analyses help trace linkages among modern people. That was semi-popularised by Steven Oppenheimer’s The Peopling of the World (2003, Constable, London), which remains the genetically based ‘straw man’ of human migrations. Like Oppenheimer, Paul Mellars also of the Dept of Archaeology at Cambridge University, argues for single exodus and rapid eastward dispersal, but leaves open the route either via the Straits of Bab el Mandab or through Mesopotamia (Mellars, P. 2006. Going East: new genetic and archaeological perspectives on the modern human colonization of Eurasia. Science, v. 313, p. 796-800). While genetic lines of descent are a most powerful tool, any conclusions need confirmation through ‘hard’ evidence from excavations, and both Arabia and the India subcontinent are irritatingly blank in that regard.  However, there are a few coastal sites that whet the appetite.  As Jonathan Kingdon first suggested, in Self-made Man and His Undoing (1993, Simon and Schuster, London), the most likely routes for migrants would have been along the shoreline. ‘Strandlopers’ would have had easy pickings from littoral food sources, even during periods of aridity related to global cold spells. But there is the problem: with sea levels well below the present ones, most truly ancient sites will now be hidden below the sea. As regards the route taken, much depends on what the Nile valley has to offer archaeologically, for that is the natural way to the eastern Mediterranean and access to the Arab Gulf either across Syria or skirting the mountains of Kurdistan. The route across the Red Sea already has excellent support by the discovery by the Gulf of Zula in Eritrea of abundant evidence for habitation by ‘strandlopers’ around 100 ka.

Detecting and mapping ancient soils

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During the early Cenozoic, and perhaps before that, huge areas of the exposed continental surface were subject to hot humid climatic conditions. That broke down every conceivable rock type to a few simple minerals that were both stable and insoluble. Such intense weathering possibly affected 30% of the land area during those ‘hothouse’ times. Where the surface was flat, the resulting residual soils were preserved to form laterites, strongly layered mineralogically. Since one of the common components is bright-red hematite, and its brown hydrous equivalent goethite, and another is brilliant white kaolinite, laterites are also stunningly layered in colour from white iron-poor clays at their base through an middle mottled yellow, orange, pink and white zone, to brick-red iron-rich ferricrete at the top of the sequence. No-one can fail to see laterites where they are exposed, but few geologists have set out to understand them. A recent paper provides a clear guide to begin that work on a grand scale, and also to chart where their unique properties and socio-economic pros and cons can be developed or avoided respectively (Andrew Deller, M.E. 2006. Facies discrimination in laterites using Landsat Thematic Mapper, ASTER and ALI data—examples from Eritrea and Arabia. International Journal of Remote Sensing, v. 27, p. 2389–2409).

The key to the long and complex chemical and mineralogical evolution of laterites lies in the different layers or facies in these palaeosols. Because they are thin and once present over vast areas of Africa, South America, India and Australia, their presence or absence today is a guide to the history of erosion and intraplate deformation after they formed. Each facies has very different chemical and physical properties, some advantageous, and some decidedly a threat of some kind, recognised and well documented by M.E. Andrews Deller of the British Open University. For instance, the clay zone is a lubricant that can encourage landslides of great thicknesses of overlying rock, yet is a potential resource — it is China Clay. Hard and porous ferricrete, containing both iron minerals and clays, makes it a cheap source of bricks and even road aggregate. But hematite can pose a frightening risk. Its open structure soaks up dissolved ions, including infamously those of arsenic, which lateritisation can set in motion from the rocks on which it develops. Hematite dissolves under reducing conditions, and should those develop on old laterites arsenic might be liberated to groundwater. Another associated compound that laterites can release is magnesium sulfate (Epsom Salts), an natural emetic but also a potential remedy for eclampsia that threatens mothers and their babies throughout laterite-mantled Africa.

Andrews Deller’s paper is a mine of laterite-related information, yet its central theme is the essential first step of mapping them and discriminating their facies. Her starting point is their mineralogical simplicity, and the unique and distinct spectral properties of those constituent minerals. She matches these to the spectral coverage of freely available remote sensing data — Landsat TM, ASTER and ALI — each of which offers nuances to be exploited in uniquely discriminating the zones. Rather than setting out to ‘unveil’ sophisticated new methods of computer analysis (to which few in laterite-encrusted areas would have access), she chose the simplest useful approaches to a previously overlooked challenge: laterite facies have never been discriminated and mapped before. The results in this well-illustrated paper are stunning, and any geologist, and quite likely many lay people can understand what they show, thanks to careful discussion. The result is a paper that combines interest, novelty and usefulness. The last is the best aspect: geologists can learn from the paper how confidently to make highly informative maps cheaply and quickly.

ASTER data and earthquakes

NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California is a huge engine of across-the-board innovation. In my field, remotely sensed geology, everyone pounces eagerly on publications by its scientists because they are bound to push techniques and applications forwards, often in surprising contexts, such as archaeology from space. One such nugget is about to be published (probably this month) in the premier geoscience journal EPSL (Avouac, P. et al. 2006. The 2005, Mw 7.6 Kashmir earthquake: Sub-pixel correlation of ASTER images and seismic waveforms analysis. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, in press doi:10.106/j.epsl.2006.06.025) and amply justifies my impatient preview here. It offers great potential for monitoring the effects of natural hazards that involve mass motion using free (for bona fide researchers and, hopefully, humanitarian organizations) satellite image data.

Jean-Phillipe Avouac and colleagues at JPL applied a well-tried approach in remote sensing — comparison of images captured on different dates—in trying to assess the extent and magnitude of ground motion involved in the 8 October 2005 Kashmir earthquake that claimed at least 80 thousand lives. But theirs is a before-and-after study with a revolutionary new slant. ASTER data from the joint US-Japanese Terra satellite resolves the ground with a resolution as sharp as 15 m, in several wavebands of EM radiation. In their own right, these bands contain huge amounts of information about vegetation, rocks and soils, and many other environmental attributes. Particularly with vegetation, comparing data from different years or seasons soon shows up changes and clues as to why they occurred. But ASTER has another potential view to offer. Two of its sensors, one pointing vertically downwards, the other obliquely back along its ground track, constitute a stereopair. They can be viewed together to give dramatic 3-D visualizations of terrain. With the appropriate software, the parallax difference between the location of each point on the ground in the two images produces a map of terrain elevation. The novelty and potential in Avouac et al. is to combine ASTER data from two instants in time to find places that have shifted in position in the meantime. So that they match geographically, they used stereo-derived terrain elevation to remove geometric distortions caused by viewing rugged relief with effectively a wide-angle camera. The key to extracting deformation parameters is applying shape-detection software to images from before and after an event, and then finding the magnitude and direction of the differences between landform shapes to chart movement. The 15 m resolution poses a limit, but the sophistication of the algorithms enables shifts of the order of less than a metre to be detected at a coarse resolution of 150 m. But that is quite sufficient to show what happened in Kashmir along the entire length of fault movement in 2005. Applied to commercially available stereo data (up to 0.65 m resolution) the results would be awesome.

Confused by radiocarbon ages? Hopefully, not anymore

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When we come to the near past, signifying time that has elapsed becomes unclear. Most christians divide the last four thousand years into AD and BC (with some confusion as to whether the division is at 1 or 0 AD), yet muslims place their starting year differently, and so might many other faiths, if they so chose. The adoption of ‘Before the Common Era’ and ‘the Common Era’ (BCE and CE, which are the same as BC and AD) really doesn’t help politically, being based on a now obvious fact: that the dominantly christian US and EU dominate the planet. The only foolproof way to judge elapsed time in years is to have some continual and irrefutably annual events to count. Now, it is not always convenient to use the annual growth rings in a collection of enormous logs of a variety of ages to tell time, and the same goes for snow layers in polar ice caps and layered stalagmites. Using the decay of radioactive 14C in preserved carbon-containing materials revolutionised archaeology and the science of recent climate change. But it has a snag, for 14C, unlike many other geochronometers, is continually being formed, by cosmic ray bombardment of nitrogen in the upper atmosphere. Cosmic ray flux is not constant, so the proportion of 14C to stable carbon was different at any time in the past. Until recently nobody knew how that proportion had varied. Radiocarbon ages have to be calibrated in some way, so that they record events in a truly absolute time-frame. Without calibration, even the most precise age determinations give a warped view of history (see Rationalising radiocarbon dating in the February 2004 issue of EPN). For instance, the date when the Younger Dryas glacial pulse began was a thousand calendar years before its calibrated 14C age. Despite heroic efforts to establish a link between radiocarbon ages and the true passage of years from long annual records in dateable materials, calibration gaps in the ~50 ka period achievable by using the quite short half-life of 14C have caused a problem. Many published and even some new dates are given without calibration, while others are in ‘years before present (BP)’, i.e. before the start of above-ground atomic bomb tests in 1950, which uniformly contaminated all later atmospheric carbon with 14C produced by nuclear transformation. The confusion should soon be resolved as the effort to match productivity of 14C to real time nears completion (Balter, M. 2006. Radiocarbon dating’s final frontier. Science, v. 313, p. 1560-1563). But some workers are impatient to give real ages using calibration curves for difficult periods, which have not yet been verified and are controversial. An interesting case relates to the possible overlap period, roughly around 35 to 30 ka ago, between fully modern humans and Neanderthals in Europe. That awkward era may soon be clarified with the unearthing of monstrous logs from New Zealand swamps, which may contain annual rings back to the 50 ka limit.

Is the idea of Hadean continental crust bunkum?

As these monthly jottings have noted several times, the geological record of the Hadean (before 4 Ga ago) could easily be lost through an ill-timed sneeze: it consists of a few minute zircon grains extracted from common or garden Archaean meta-sandstones in Western Australia. Milligram for milligram, these have become the heaviest punchers in the world of geochemical debate. They undoubtedly crystallized as long ago as 4.4 Ga. More controversially their detailed chemistry has been suggested to indicate that their crystallization was from granitic magma formed by partial melting of materials that interacted with water at around 700°C; materials that were not primarily of mantle composition (see Zircons and early continents no longer to be sneezed at in EPN February 2006 issue). If true, that would suggest low-density crust that found difficulty in being recycled into the mantle only a few tens of Ma after the Earth’s formation. Either that crust was too thin to resist subduction by some kind of tectonic slicing and has gone for ever, or some of it is still out there waiting to be found…by those who become very excited by extremely aged rocks. There is a simple way of putting the early-granite hypothesis to the test — by seeing if zircons in basalts are any different from them (Coogan, L.A. & Hinton, R.W. 2006. Do the trace element compositions of detrital zircons require Hadean continental crust? Geology, v. 34, p. 633-636).

Coogan and Hinton, of the University of Waterloo, Canada and Edinburgh University respectively, show that Hadean zircons cannot be distinguished chemically from those found in gabbros that have differentiated from basaltic magmas at modern mid-ocean ridges. As if that were not sufficiently deflating, they also made crystallization-temperature estimates of the gabbro-derived zircons, using a geothermometer that uses the titanium content of zircon in equilibrium with rutile. Despite the fact that the real temperature of gabbro crystallization is well over 1000°C, these estimates came in at between 700 and 800°C. That is, about the same as those proposed as evidence for the crystallization temperature of Hadean zircons from a granitic magma. Coogan and Hinton were not content, and go on to offer an alternative explanation for the zircon’s oxygen isotopes, used by others as evidence for the influence of water at shallow depths back to 4.4 Ga. The seemingly water-derived 18O excess in the zircons could well have come from carbonates recycled from surface weathering of basalt, to be assimilated by deep basaltic magma chambers.

And now, another blow for ‘Snowball Earth’

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The so-called Cryogenian Period of the Neoproterozoic rests on evidence for coincident glaciation at all latitudes. It has been supposed to include at least two, maybe three and perhaps more frigid ‘snowball’ events, each with a pattern of lower diamictites and an upper carbonate cap rock. The most widely supposed glacial epochs are the Sturtian at 712 Ma, the Marinoan at 635 Ma and the Gaskiers at 580 Ma, but Precambrian sedimentary sequences are notoriously difficult to tie down in time. Only if dateable igneous events bracket evidence for glaciation is an age truly valid. Yet the global 3-fold division depends largely on correlation of stratigraphic and carbon-isotope sequences with the odd few that are dated in an absolute time-frame. The developing field of rhenium-osmium (Re-Os) radiometric dating offers a more universal check, since it provides a means of dating highly reduced black shales, that are abundant in the Neoproterozoic. The first reported results come as a blow to the ‘Snowball Earth’ community (Kendall, B. et al. 2006. Re-Os geochronology of postglacial black shales in Australia: constraints on the timing of the ‘Sturtian’ glaciation. Geology, v. 34, p. 729-732).

Bruce Kendall and colleagues from the Universities of Alberta, Canada and the Durham, UK have constrained some of the principal occurrences of the Sturtian event in Australia to between 643 and 657 Ma, by dating the shales which envelop the diamictites and cap carbonates. They are younger than even the widest range previously suggested for the Sturtian: either the glaciation was grossly diachronous, or this is yet another glaciation of ‘Sturtian’type. The best that can be concluded is that the ‘Cryogenian’ was cold but glaciation shifted from place to place – a ‘slushball’ model?

Assigning Copyright

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If anything is growing super-exponentially (where the rate of growth also grows) it is the annual number of scientific publications. Since the number of potential readers is not, a crunch point is surely coming where the average number of readers of a learned paper may be just the authors themselves: someone with the time can do the necessary arithmetic to check that casual prognosis. To a semi-professional browser of a few leading journals in one subject area, it does sometimes seem as if that point arrived a while back. Yet the number of actual journals is growing as well, for example Nature now has more than 30 satellite journals, when once it stood at stratospheric height astride the entire breadth of Science. One journal, which professional etiquette will not allow me to mention by name, is currently submerged beneath a backlog of unpublished but accepted papers, to the extent that a decision to jump from 18 issues to 24 per year has run into difficulties. Its next 6 issues will be bundled into two weighty volumes to clear the desks of a single sub-editor, who it seems is definitely getting a bit ‘frayed around the edges’. How do publishers manage to blurt out such an awesome volume without a sort of heat death of the literary universe and, more mundanely, economic collapse? For a start, they take adverts and up the subscription rates, both for paper and on-line versions. Oddly there is a huge range of subscription rates for top-ranking geoscientific journals, from about £100 for the beautifully typeset and edited Journal of Geology published by University of Chicago Press to almost £3000 for Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology published by Elsevier (2005 rates). Publishers can charge for colour content – most do but a few do not. Of course, they do not pay for a paper’s creative content, unlike almost every other kind of publication, but that is born of hubris, which is probably inbred among scientists. For the same reason they do not pay their referees; in fact I am sure that some would pay for the privilege (see above). Let us be clear on one thing: scientific publishing is a hugely profitable business, and most scientists would be hamstrung if they did not go along with its rapacity, unless perhaps they club together to create free on-line, peer-reviewed journals outside the pack.

Among the ruses aimed at milking the demonically possessed Gadarene herd, to which most scientists belong, is one worth special approbation: compulsory assignment of copyright (Marris, E. 2006. PS I want all the rights. Nature, v.442, p. 118-119). That is relatively new, and along with it is a rapid attrition of the only perk, free offprints to distribute, amaze your friends and rub salt in the wounds of your enemies. It is now common to give authors only the final on-line PDF, file, but with stern warnings that only a certain number of free distributions are allowed. To get paper offprints (still much more highly valued by colleagues than electronic text), authors increasingly have to pay extortionate fees, almost equivalent page per page to the market value of a hand-illuminated, mediaeval manuscript. Let’s get this straight, publishers do not pay authors (and referees), and often demand payment for necessary colour work that visually enhances journals (costs of 4-colour printing have plummeted in recent years), yet claim ownership of the published article, effectively violating the intellectual property rights of authors. A powerful move against this is beginning. Original PDFs of almost 50 % of papers inScience and Nature and increasing numbers of those in other prestigious journals are appearing for free download from the Web. Major grant givers in the medical sciences now demand that work that they sponsor becomes free to all, once published. Some provide authors with forms to add to the copyright transfer papers that must be signed to ensure free access to all. Publishers complain direly that such action will destroy their journals financially, claiming that, ‘the final version is where publishers add value’ and that the version published by a journal is ‘definitive’, ‘part of the minutes of science’. Readers can draw their own conclusions about this issue of form versus content. It is relatively simple to prepare PDFs of corrected papers and their figures to a publishing standard and distribute them freely, a widely adopted move among physicists, biologists and medical scientists through open-access libraries such as PubMedCentral.

 

Anonymous referees

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Anyone who submits their first paper to a journal soon becomes aware of the “peer review” process: probably the single greatest contributor to academic suspicion and anxiety.  Of course, these “peers” fall into two categories: the “esteemed colleague” (helpful); the “witless wonder” (negative, and prone to crushing your paper).  Write a book, a play or an operatic score, and your critics in the media have a name.  You could even find out where they keep their pet rabbit.  They are accountable. Yet, editors of journals claim to have a “duty of confidentiality” towards those referees who opt for anonymity: guess which category most often does. At one time or another, most academics asked for critiques by learned journals only to recommend rejection have succumbed to “taking the veil”.  Equally, there are few researchers who have not suffered a similar fate to one they may have meted out themselves.  Learning by experience is not necessarily a strong point among scientists.  A typical case came to my notice recently, but the identity of one faceless and repugnant referee eventually became clear.  I know him well.  He too had suffered acute stress from a grossly delayed manuscript and the vicious comment of an anonymous referee some years back, yet saw fit to indulge his own spleen when offered a place in the shade: goodness only knows why, but in this case I have my suspicions.

The whole scientific community grows increasingly uneasy about anonymous peer-review, and the abuse that it sometimes makes possible. Examples are deliberate delays by unnamed referees engaged in similar research or related commercial activity, plagiarism, incompetence and the self-indulgence of gratuitously destructive and belittling comment.  It is the near-universal policy of referee anonymity that allows these unwholesome practices to fester and grow.  Most journals give their referees the option of coming out of the closet, or remaining smugly behind its door.  Some assume anonymity, so that a referee has to ask explicitly for their name to be revealed.  Anonymous referees are simply moral cowards, along with editors of the journals that give them a cloak. What do they fear?  Are direct questions about their comments cause for timidity?

Referee malpractice can be removed completely by editors refusing to allow referees to skulk behind anonymity. Now, in the UK at least, it seems possible to challenge this unwholesome editorial prerogative, because of the Freedom of Information Act 2000 (2002 Scotland), which came into force on 1 Jan 2005, and the Data Protection Act 1998.  Resorting to the Acts ought not to be necessary as regards the activities of scholarly journals, yet editors continue to defend the more faceless of their referees.  No doubt there would be a temporary shortage of referees should compulsory “outing” become the norm, but it would remove those who do engage in malpractice.  The most important result would be an increase in objectively constructive comment, which softens the blow of a rejection slip by showing a way forward to authors.   Peer-review should work both ways, and should be seen to be honest.

 

Pliocene climate and a lesson for the near future?

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While most geoscientists use the products of processes that operate today to judge environments of the past, climatologists do the reverse: the past is the key to the present. While the climate record of the last 2.5 Ma is a key to understanding and perhaps even predicting rapid climate shifts during glacial-interglacial periods uncontaminated by human influences, such is the extent to which greenhouse emissions have affected the current climate that we have little idea what the outcomes may be. The possibility of greenhouse warming has become higher than in any previous interglacial epoch. To get even an inkling of what that might set in motion requires looking back to warmer times than the Late Pliocene and Pleistocene, at around 3 to 5 Ma. In the Early Pliocene it is very likely that CO2 in the atmosphere was no more than nowadays. Because the Earth’s geography was little different from the way it is now and the Milankovich forcing was the same too, modelling Early Pliocene climate might seem to result in similar patterns, but it doesn’t (Fedorov, A.V. et al. 2006. The Pliocene paradox (mechanisms for a permanent El Niño). Science, v. 312, p. 1485-1489). Sea level was some 25 metres higher than it is at present and mean global temperature was an extra 3°C, and sea-surface temperatures (from the oxygen isotopes in planktonic foraminifera) were high as well. Despite much the same forcing factors as today, the Pliocene lacked large high-latitude ice caps in Arctic regions. Milankovich-related fluctuations were damped down compared with those of the Pleistocene. Both modelling and geological evidence from the Early Pliocene suggests that Earth’s climate was dominated by a perpetual El Niño in the tropical oceans, because of an inability of cold water to upwell periodically along the western tropical margins of Africa and South America. Quite probably such conditions had persisted for the previous 50 Ma, despite gradual overall cooling.

Fedorov and colleagues point to very different Early Pliocene climates in several regions: Mild winters in central and north-eastern North America; droughts in Indonesia and torrential rains in western North and South America. Overall, it was a much more humid world, and since water vapour is a powerful greenhouse gas warmth and humidity were sustained despite no higher CO2 levels than now. At about 3 Ma, ocean surface waters began to cool, with signs that the alternations associated with El Niño and La Niña in the eastern Pacific began. An explanation for this is the gradual build up of very cold water deep in the ocean as a result of winds from continents cooling ocean surface water at high latitudes and causing it to sink. Without periodic upwellings, warm surface waters and cold deep waters could not mix, so inevitably the interface became shallower. At some critical depth, this thermocline could break surface, transforming both climate patterns and those of ocean currents, eventually to end up as the present tropical climate cyclicity which is connected with  other climate features of the Great Ice Age.

Fedorov et al  speculate that only a small descent of the ocean thermocline – a matter of a few tens of metres – could re-establish Pliocene conditions.  That might occur because of continued anthropogenic warming, and the ‘flip’ might be as quick as a few decades to centuries.

Accretion and core formation reviewed

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Painstaking work on meteorites and their re-evaluation has only a small, non-specialist readership, but now and again developments in the science and its bearing on how the Solar System and its planets formed need a review. The latest of these (Wood, B.J. et al. 2006. Accretion of the Earth and segregation of its core. Nature, v. 441, p. 825-833) doesn’t deviate much from generally accepted ideas, except in detail. For a long while it has seemed inescapable that gravitational potential energy accumulated from accretion of mass, together with energy released by decaying short-lived isotopes formed by a supernova near the dust cloud that gave birth to the Solar System would have led to hot protoplanets. So core formation by segregation of dense immiscible metal and sulphide melts was likely to have been sooner rather than later – such melts form at lower temperatures than do those made of silicates.

The daughter isotope (182W) of one short-lived isotope (182Hf) is especially revealing in both meteorites and the Earth. Hafnium favours entry into silicates while tungsten has an affinity for metallic iron; they are siderophile. So, when metallic melts form in a silicate body the Hf/W ratio increases in the silicates. If that segregation occurs before most 182Hf has decayed – within about 45 Ma – then the silicate part will express an excess of 182W while metals have a deficiency. In the case of metallic meteorites, 182W is so low as to indicate segregation of the metal from silicate within less than 5 Ma of the ultimate origin of the Solar System. Inevitably, Earth would have incorporated some of these early-formed metallic parts during its accretion. Tungsten isotopes from terrestrial rocks, however, suggest that core formation lasted about ten times longer, and imply that this early metal re-mixed with silicate in the mantle during accretion, and formation of the core was a secondary product of heating of the growing planet. The mantle has an excess of siderophile elements, which poses a problem. There are three possibilities: core formation was never completed, some of these elements remaining locked in silicate; it took place while overall chemical conditions changed from reducing to oxidizing, so that the most siderophile ended up in the core during the reduced phase then less siderophile elements progressively favoured silicate entry as conditions became oxidising; as the Earth grew the pressure under which segregation of core materials increased. The third scenario invokes a deep ‘ocean’ of magma through which droplets of metal fell, equilibrating with silicate melt and then forming a pond on the ‘ocean’ floor, ultimately to descend as large masses.

Wood et al. examine these three scenarios in the light of recent data and planetary modelling, suggesting that the second was the most likely by a process of ‘self-oxidation’ as its size increased, perhaps linked with the formation of perovskite in the deep mantle once a limiting radius had been achieved. Such a heterogeneous accretion and core segregation would explain the disparity between estimates of the timing of the core from tungsten and lead isotopes (~12 and ~28 Ma respectively)   They also revisit the oddly low density of the liquid outer core – about 8% less than expected of an iron-nickel alloy, ascribing it to a mixture of the low-atomic weight elements, silicon, sulphur, carbon and hydrogen, with an unknown proportion of oxygen.

Evidence for strain build up along faults in southern California

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In the centenary year of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake a lot of attention has been paid to the northern part of the infamous San Andreas Fault. That avoids the fact the its southerly extension to the south-east of Los Angeles has not ruptured in a devastating way for at least 250 years. Faults break after protracted build-up of elastic strain. Such strains are detectable using data from spaceborne radar systems. These have been available since 1992 from the European Space Agency ERS-1 and ERS-2 satellites. A sequence of data sets provides information about the annual rate of deformation (Fialko Y. 2006. Interseismic strain accumulation and the earthquake potential on the southern San Andreas fault system. Nature, v. 441, p. 968-971). Fialko shows that the parallel San Andreas and San Jacinto faults near the Salton Sea are building up strain at about 3 cm per year, so that about 7 to 10 metres will have accumulated since the last major earthquake in that part of the system. This exceeds the largest known seismic movement on the system, thereby suggesting that Los Angeles is likely to experience a ‘big one’ shortly.

Supervolcanoes

Outside of a major meteorite impact, the greatest danger posed by geological processes is a monster volcanic eruption. As well as the close-by effects of massive debris avalanches and ash falls, explosive eruptions blast sulphur gases into the stratosphere where they reside for a long time as sulphuric acid aerosols. Clouds of these tiny particles reflect a proportion of solar radiation back into space and so cause global cooling. The eruptions of Pinatubo and Krakatau in recent historic times did just that, as have several others with more devastating global effects such as famine. Yet these are tiny compared with eruptions known from the recent geological past that are marked by ash deposits over vast areas. About 71 ka ago, Toba in Indonesia  blasted out a 30 by 100 km caldera and its ash extends across much of south Asia and surrounding ocean floors. Genetic evidence from human Y-chromosomes suggests a massive decline in human numbers at the time, to create an evolutionary bottleneck. This near-extinction may have been connected in some way to eruption of the Toba supervolcano. Such events are a more likely risk than impacts, and a recent review of research into them highlights those that are well-known (Bindeman, I.N. 2006. The secrets of supervolcanoes. Scientific American, v. 294 (June 2006 issue), p. 26-33). The western USA has two potential threats: calderas in Yellowstone National Park and Long Valley. Between 760 and 640 ka both exploded to blanket the whole southern USA and northern Mexico with around 1000 cubic kilometres of ash. Bindeman’s own research sheds light on the details of magma evolution during such eruptions using isotopic signals in zircons contained within ash deposits..

Out of Africa and back again?

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Humans left Africa with a meagre tool kits at a remarkably early date, possibly around 1.9 Ma from finds of primitive stone tools in Pakistan and Central China, and certainly before 1.7 Ma in the case of the now celebrated human remains at Dmanisi in Georgia and in Java. Around 1.7 Ma sites with evidence for human occupation extend from southern to north-western Africa and over 2/3 of the width of southern Eurasia. Despite the increased chances of preservation in later times, such a wide-ranging expansion seems not to have recurred until the fully modern human diaspora from Africa that began around 70 to 100 ka. Fossil evidence suggests that descendants of these earliest known migrants thrived until as recently as 20 ka in south-east Asia, and perhaps longer, if tiny Homo floresiensis prove to be other than symptomatic of congenital dwarfism. They represent a puzzle, and absence of evidence has deterred palaeoanthropologists from sticking out their necks, until a recent review of possibilities (Dennell, R. & Roebroeks, W. 2005. An Asian perspective on early human dispersal from Africa. Nature, v. 438, p. 1099-1104).

For a long time all human remains dated between 1 and 1.9 Ma were ascribed to H. erectus, whose type specimen hails from Java, not Africa. Anatomical re-evaluation of specimens from Africa, notably the famous, 1.6 Ma old Turkana Boy from Kenya, shows that they are sufficiently different from Eugéne Dubois’s Javan H. erectus type specimen to warrant a different species name – ‘Action Man’ or H. ergaster. The Dmanisi humans have close affinities, but are older. Therein lies one puzzle: apart from the very much more primitive (and very rare) H. habilis of east Africa, there is no obvious African candidate as an ancestor for H. ergaster there. Dennell and Roebroeks speculate that they migrated back to Africa after evolving there from some unknown earlier species. Another puzzle centres on the tools carried by the early migrants from Africa.

Simple chopper and rough flake tools first appear in north-east Ethiopia at 2.6 Ma, but with no clear sign of who made them. The first discovery of the earliest known tool kit was at Olduvai Gorge in Tanzania – hence their name, Oldowan. They are associated with remains of the earliest known human species H. habilis, but date only to 1.8 Ma. Since Oldowan tool use is now known to have extended over a huge range of Africa and Eurasia at that time, the original emigrants must have carried the culture with them sometime after its first appearance in Ethiopia at 2.6 Ma. The emblematic artefact of ‘H. erectus’ is the beautiful pear-shaped biface axe, yet it first appeared at 1.5 Ma in Africa, and did not make an appearance outside the continent until about 700 ka and never made it to east Asia until carried their by fully modern humans: it was an African invention. Oddly, these highly crafted tools are often found with little sign of wear, and indeed opinion about what they were for is divided.

The great problem in palaeoanthropology is absence of fossils, which is hardly surprising. Dennell and Roebroeks comment that most Late Pliocene to Early Pleistocene terrestrial faunas are nearly always of large, robust animals, and even they are uncommon. The ravages of erosion and transportation also make it difficult to date finds of stone tools, as they may have been mixed with younger dateable materials. With confidence, they rely on the old adage (not well liked by the Popperian school of scientific methodology) that, ‘Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence’, and also that the earliest evidence for a new migrant is bound to be younger than its first presence. They look to the palaeoecological record of the period, which suggests a vast extent of open savannah covering much of Africa and southern Asia in the period when the climatic effects of glacial-interglacial cycles had not gripped low latitudes to create the desert barriers of later Pleistocene times. For species adapted to savannah life there was little to prevent their very wide migration, indeed simple diffusion would have moved them across the entire savannah range. Once thought to be confined to the East African Rift, australopithecines have turned up as far afield as modern Chad, 2500 km away, and as long ago as 3.5 Ma. If such diminutive creatures with no tools could diffuse so far, then what might have been the geographic limitation to the earliest tool users? Moreover, diffusion has no direction in the area that presents its possibility: movement could have been back and forth. An intriguing point made by Dennell and Roebroeks is that climatic instability first appeared around 2.6 Ma in Central China, so any emigrants moving north would have been subject to greater evolutionary-selective pressures for longer. Homo ergaster might have evolved in Asia and returned to Africa in the face of worsening conditions. This approach raises as many plausible hypotheses as a stick can be poked at, and should re-vitalise palaeoanthropological research outside Africa as a means of testing them.

Dee also: Kohn, M. 2006. Made in Savannahstan. New Scientist, v. 191 (1 July 2006 issue), p. 34-39.