According to a new study (Goode, P. R.et al. 2021. Earth’s albedo 1998–2017 as measured from earthshine. Geophysical Research Letters, v. 48, article e2021GL094888; DOI: 10.1029/2021GL094888) the ability of the Earth to reflect solar radiation back into space has been decreasing significantly over the last two decades. The conclusion has arisen from measurements of the brightness of the lunar surface. A new Moon is barely visible, apart from a thin sliver illuminated by the Sun. Its overall faint brightness is due to sunlight reflected from the Earth’s surface that faces the Moon: so-called ‘earthshine’. New Moons occurs when it is above the lit side of the Earth, so they appear during daylight hours. Earthshine depends on the ability of the Earth’s surface and cloud cover to reflect solar radiation, or its albedo. Albedo was high during the last ice age because of continental ice sheets and it can also occur when there is an unusually large percentage of cloud cover or a lot of dust and aerosols in the atmosphere, perhaps after a large volcanic eruption. High albedo leads to global cooling. Decreased albedo allows the atmosphere to heat up, and conspires with the greenhouse effect to produce global warming.

Philip Goode and his colleagues measured earthshine on the Moon between 1998 and 2017 to precisely determine daily, monthly, seasonal, yearly and decadal changes in terrestrial albedo. The Earth reflects roughly 30% of the solar energy that falls on it, although it varies with Earth’s rotation, depending on the proportion of land to ocean that is sunlit. Over the two decades earthshine decreased gradually by ~0.5 W m^-2, indicating a 0.5% decrease in Earth’s albedo and a corresponding increase in the amount of solar energy received at the land and ocean surfaces. To put this in perspective the estimated warming from anthropogenic greenhouse emissions over the same period increased by just a little more (0.6 W m^-2). Albedo decrease is reinforcing the greenhouse effect.

Although it might seem that increased seasonal melting of polar sea ice would have the main effect on albedo, this is not borne out by the earthshine data. What is strongly implicated is a decrease over the Eastern Pacific Ocean of highly reflective low-altitude clouds. That might seem counterintuitive, since warming of the sea surface increases evaporation, but the reduced low-cloud cover has been measured from satellites. Many scientists and most climate-change deniers have thought that an increase in cloud cover at low latitudes and thus albedo would moderate surface warming. The opposite seems to be happening. The key may lie in one of the Earth’s largest climate phenomena, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This has a major effect on global climate through long-distance connections (teleconnections) to other climatic processes. The satellite data hint at the changes in albedo of the Western Hemisphere having been related to a long-term reversal in the PDO. The Earth’s climate system increasingly reveals its enormous complexity.

See also: Earth is dimming due to climate change, Science Daily, 30 September 2021.