Month: September 2023

Sudden climate change: a warning from 8 millennia ago

Published on by zooks777Leave a comment

Mesolithic hunter-gatherers in Britain must have had a very hard time around 8.2 thousand years age. The whole area around the North Atlantic experienced sudden climatic cooling of around 3.3°C together with drought that lasted about 70 years. To make things worse shortly afterwards, coasts around the North were devastated by a tsunami generated by a submarine landslide off western Norway. That event exceeded the maximum coast ‘run up’ of both the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and that in NW Japan on 11 March 2011. Doggerland, then in the central North Sea was devastated by a catastrophic event of a few days duration. It littered the seabed with the bones of its megafauna and even Mesolithic tools recovered by trawlers from its surviving relic the shallow Dogger Bank. It seems the tsunami arrived just as climate was warming back to ‘normal’ Holocene conditions: for many foragers, surely, a last straw.

The cooling episode has been attributed to perturbation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as a result of meltwater discharge during the deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (see: Just when you think it’s going to turn out alright… November 2009).The event may have unfolded in a similar fashion to the trigger for the Younger Dryas and the succession of warming-cooling episodes known as Dansgaard-Oeschger events that interrupted the otherwise relentless global cooling towards the last glacial maximum (see: Review of thermohaline circulation; February 2002). The physics that set off such climatic ‘hiccups’ is that freshening of surface seawater reduces its density, so that it cannot sink to be replaced by denser saline water ‘dragged’ northwards from warmer latitudes. That currently takes the form of the Gulf Stream with its warming influence, particularly in the eastern North Atlantic and even beyond Norway’s North Cape, responsible for much warmer winters than at similar latitudes on the western side. The culprit  had long been suggested to be the drainage of a huge lake dammed by the ice sheet that covered most of eastern Canada during late stages of deglaciation. Seemingly the best candidate was Lake Agassiz trapped by the early Holocene ice front in Manitoba – the largest proglacial lake known anywhere.

Colour coded topographic elevation of North America showing the maximum extent of Lake Agassiz and four possible routes for its drainage: north-west to the Arctic Ocean via the Mackenzie River; south to the Gulf of Mexico via the Mississippi valley; east to the North Atlantic via the Great Lakes and St Laurence River; north to the North Atlantic via Hudson Bay. (Credit: ©Sheffield University)

The present landforms of central Canada show evidence for several outflow directions at different times, Including to the northwest to reach the Arctic Ocean at the onset of the Younger Dryas. Until recently there was little detailed evidence for the flow volume and timing of its drainage around 8 to 9 ka. Providing the details in the context of the short-lived event around 8.2 ka requires accurate data over a mere 200 years able to reveal a change in sea level to a precision of better than a few tens of centimetre. Any site on the shores of the North Atlantic would do, provided it satisfies these criteria. Geographers from universities in York, Leeds, Sheffield and Oxford, UK selected the small estuary of the River Ythan in NE Scotland. There, a continuous sand unit just above fine-grained intertidal tidal muds marks the knife-sharp time datum of the Storegga tsunami (Rush, G. et al. 2023. The magnitude and source of meltwater forcing of the 8.2 ka climate event constrained by relative sea-level data from eastern Scotland. Quaternary Science Advances, v. 12, article 100119; DOI: 10.1016/j.qsa.2023.100119).

Cores of the intertidal sediments from beneath the present Ythan salt marsh contain plant remains that yielded precise radiocarbon dates at several stratigraphic levels from which to derive an age-depth model for the age range of interest. The buried sediments are also rich in marine microfossils (foraminifera and diatoms) that thrive in estuaries at a variety of depths.  These enabled fluctuations in relative sea level during the build-up of the intertidal sediments to be constrained at unprecedented resolution and precision for a three thousand year period from 9.5 to 6.5 ka. The authors show that there were two episodes of rapid sea-level rise over that time: between 8.53 and 8.37 ka (~2.4 m at 13 mm yr-1) and 8.37 to 8.24 ka (~ 0.6 m at 4 mm yr-1) – these would have been global increases in sea level.

Despite its vast size, it turns out that Lake Agassiz would have been unable to result in sea-level rises of that magnitude so quickly merely through outflow. Rush et al. suggest that the huge  and rapid addition of fresh water to the North Atlantic involved flow of lake water towards Hudson Bay, beneath the ice sheet, causing it to collapse and melt, followed by completion of Lake Agassiz’s emptying in the second stage. It took a long drawn-out ‘freshening’ of the North Atlantic surface water ultimately to shut down the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, thereby depriving high latitudes of its east-side warming effect by the Gulf Stream.

Sea level has been rising since the early 20th century mainly through the melting of Greenland’s ice cap together with a substantial amount of thermal expansion while global climate has been warming. Between 1901 and 2018 the rise has amounted to 15 to 25 cm at a rate of 1 to 2 mm yr-1. The AMOC is possibly weaker now than at any time during the last millennium (Zhu, C. et al. 2023. Likely accelerated weakening of Atlantic overturning circulation emerges in optimal salinity fingerprint. Nature Communications, v. 14, article 1245; DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-36288-4). Yet increases in freshening of the northernmost parts of the North Atlantic are now being added to by annual increases in the melting of polar sea ice, which is salt-free. The AMOC may be approaching a tipping point, because warming is accelerating over Greenland at around 1.5°C each year: faster than most of the rest of the world. In 2021 it rained for the first time ever recorded at the ice cap’s summit (3.2 km above sea level). A ‘perturbation’ of the AMOC would add chaos to the dominantly linear view of global warming taken by climatologists. That could launch frigidity and drought at mid northern latitudes as it did eight millennia ago: the opposite of what is currently feared.

See also: Unlocking Ancient Climate Secrets – Melting Ice Likely Triggered Climate Change Over 8,000 Years Ago. Scitechdaily 16 September 2023.

Direct signs of what caused the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum

Published on by zooks777Leave a comment

Until about 56 Ma ago North America and Europe were connected: one of the last relics of the Pangaea supercontinent. Oxygen isotopes and magnesium/calcium ratios in the tests of both surface- and bottom-dwelling foraminifera suggest that around that time global mean surface temperature increased by about 5 to 6°C within 10 to 20 thousand years. The rate of global warming was comparable to that currently being induced by human activities. The Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) is seen by climatologists as a dreadful warning of times to come in the not so distant future. The PETM event marks the most dramatic biological changes since the mass extinction at the Cretaceous-Palaeogene boundary 10 million years earlier. They included the rapid expansions of mammals and land plants and major extinction of deep-water foraminifera. The PETM also coincided with an equally profound excursion in the δ13C of carbon-rich strata of that age, whose extreme negative value marks the release of a huge mass of previously buried organic carbon into the atmosphere. It was probably methane, much more potent at delaying heat loss to space than carbon dioxide – methane has more than 80 times the warming effect of carbon dioxide. Since CH4 is soon oxidised to CO2 and H2O estimates of atmospheric greenhouse gas levels are generally expressed in terms of CO2. The PETM release was equivalent to about 4.4 x 1013metrictons over 50 ka; on average 0.24 gigatons per year compared with 0.51 Gt from energy-related sources in 2022.

During the Palaeocene, areas around the present North Atlantic were subject to basaltic continental volcanism before the rifting that opened the North Atlantic from 62 to 58 Ma. Magmatism, dominated by intrusions, began again at the Palaeocene-Eocene boundary from 56 to 54 Ma, linked to the start of continental rifting. Both episodes suggest a rising mantle plume. Once the rift had truly opened volcanism became restricted to the mid Atlantic ridge and a mantle plume remains active beneath Iceland. After geoscientists became aware of the PETM and its coincidence with North Atlantic igneous activity many palaeoclimatologists suggested methane release from organic-rich sediments heated by intrusion of basaltic sills below the opening seaway (but see 2022 post on alternative hypotheses). As with so many extreme geological events, choosing a most-likely scenario depends ultimately on tangible evidence. A convincing sign has been demonstrated dramatically in a recent study by a multinational team of geophysicists, oceanographers, geochemists, palaeontologists and sedimentologists (Berndt, C. and 35 others 2023. Shallow-water hydrothermal venting linked to the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum. Nature Geoscience, v. 16, p. 803–809; DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01246-8).

Three-dimensional view of seismic reflection data off western Norway. The greytone lower part is a vertical ‘slice’. The coloured part shows the depth variation of sediments that fill hydrothermal vent systems beneath a horizontal unconformity. (Credit: Berndt et al, Fig 1b)

The breakthrough by Berndt et al. stemmed from a detailed 3-D seismic survey off the coast of Norway. It revealed an unconformity at the P-E boundary beneath which were clear signs of hundreds of large pockmarks, up to 80 m deep. Seismic reflection from older sediments beneath the unconformity showed the distinctive presence of intrusive sills of igneous rocks. The consortium drilled 20 boreholes into the seabed beneath the survey area. Five of them penetrated crater-like features to yield cores through the sediments that had filled them. The fills were muds, which were interleaved beds of volcanic ash in the sequences marking the P-E boundary suggesting an igneous influence. Organic remains in the muds established the depositional timing of several distinct layers and also gave clues to their depositional conditions. Those spanning the 50 ka of the PETM were dominated by plant debris, pollen and spores, together with abundant marine diatoms that live in very shallow water. Laminations in the muds dip radially inwards towards the deeper parts of some craters to define funnel-like structures. In others the sediments have been domed upwards. The sediments and their structures closely resemble those in blow-out craters formed during petroleum drilling accidents and in onshore maar volcanoes produced by sudden explosive eruptions on land. The pockmarks formed suddenly, to be filled by mobilised mud and volcanic ash.

The evidence points to explosive vents formed by massive degassing of deeper sediments induced by igneous intrusions. Such systems are common around active ocean-floor rifts: ‘black-‘ and ‘white smokers’, but those off Norway formed in shallow water. That has an important bearing on their potency during the PETM. Deep hydrothermal systems may emit methane, but it is oxidised to CO2 in seawater. Those very close to the surface vent their gas almost directly into the atmosphere before such oxidation can consume methane. Intrusive sills also underlie the eastern continental margin of Greenland, so such explosive hydrothermal vents may have been widespread during the initial rifting of the North Atlantic’.

An evolutionary bottleneck and the emergence of Neanderthals, Denisovans and modern humans

Published on by zooks777Leave a comment

The genetic diversity of living humans, particularly among short, repetitive segments of DNA, is surprisingly low. As they are passed from generation to generation they have a high chance of mutation, which would be expected to create substantial differences between geographically separated populations. In the late 1990s and early 2000s some researchers attributed the absence of such gross differences to the human gene pool having been reduced to a small size in the past, thereby reducing earlier genetic variation as a result of increased interbreeding among survivors. They were able to assess roughly when such a population ‘bottleneck’ took place and the level to which the global population fell. Genetic analysis of living human populations seemed to suggest that around 74 ka ago the global human population fell to as little as 10 thousand individuals. A potential culprit was the catastrophic eruption of the Toba supervolcano in Sumatra around that time, which belched out 800 km3 of ash now found as far afield as the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps. Global surface temperature may have fallen by 10°C for several years to decades. Subsequent research has cast doubt on such a severe decline in numbers of living hummans; for instance archaeologists working in SE India found much the same numbers of stone tools above the Toba ash deposit as below it (see: Toba ash and calibrating the Pleistocene record: December 2012). Other, less catastrophic explanations for the low genetic diversity of modern humans have also been proposed. Nevertheless, environmental changes that placed huge stresses on our ancestors may repeatedly have led to such population bottlenecks, and indeed throughout the entire history of biological evolution.

An improved method of ‘back-tracking’ genetic relatedness among living populations, known as fast infinitesimal time coalescence or ‘FitCoal’, tracks genomes of individuals back to a last common ancestor. In simple language, it expresses relatedness along lineages to find branching points and, using an assumed mutation rate, estimates how long ago such coalescences probably occurred. The more lineages the further back in time FitCoal can reach and the greater the precision of the analysis. Moreover it can suggest the likely numbers of individuals, whose history is preserved in the genetics of modern people, who contributed to the gene pool at different branching points. Our genetics today are not restricted to our species for it is certain that traces of Neanderthal and Denisovan ancestry are present in populations outside of Africa. African genetics also host ‘ghosts’ of so-far unknown distant ancestors. So, the FitCoal approach may well be capable of teasing out events in human evolution beyond a million years ago, if sufficient data are fed into the algorithms. A team of geneticists based in China, Italy and the US has recently applied FitCoal to genomic sequences of 3154 individual alive today (Hu, W.and 8 others 2023. Genomic inference of a severe human bottleneck during the Early to Middle Pleistocene transition. Science, v. 381, p. 979-984; DOI I: 10.1126/science.abq7487). Their findings are startling and likely to launch controversy among their peers.

Their analyses suggest that between 930 and 813 ka ago human ancestors passed through a population bottleneck that involved only about 1300 breeding individuals. Moreover they remained at the very brink of extinction for a little under 120 thousand years. Interestingly, the genetic data are from people living on all continents, with no major differences between the analyses for geographically broad groups of people in Africa and Eurasia. Archaeological evidence, albeit sparse, suggests that ancient humans were widely spread across those two continental masses before the bottleneck event. The date range coincides with late stages of the Mid-Pleistocene climatic transition (1250 to 750 ka) during which glacial-interglacial cycles changed from 41 thousand-year periods to those that have an average duration of around 100 ka. The transition also brought with it roughly a doubling in the mean annual temperature range from the warmest parts of interglacials to the frigid glacial maxima: the world became a colder and drier place during the glacial parts of the cycles.

Genomes for Neanderthals and Denisovans suggest that they emerged as separate species between 500 and 700 ka ago. Their common ancestor, possibly Homo heidelbergensis, H. antecessor or other candidates (palaeoanthropologists habitually differ) may well have constituted the widespread population whose numbers shrank dramatically during the bottleneck. Perhaps several variants emerged because of it to become Denisovans, Neanderthals and, several hundred thousand years later, of anatomically modern humans. Yet it would require actual DNA from one or other candidate for the issue of last common ancestor for the three genetically known ‘late’ hominins to be resolved. But Hu et al. have shown a possible means of accelerated hominin evolution from which they may have emerged, at the very brink of extinction.

Oxygen-isotope record and global temperature changes over the last 5 million years, green lines showing the times dominated by 41 and 100 ka climatic cycles. The mid-Pleistocene climatic transition is shown in pink (Credit: Robert A Rohde)

There is a need for caution, however. H. erectus first appeared in the African fossil record about 1.8 Ma ago and subsequently spread across Eurasia to become the most ‘durable’ of all hominin species. Physiologically they seem not to have evolved much over at least a million years, nor even culturally – their biface Acheulean tools lasted as long as they did. They were present in Asia for even longer, and apparently did not dwindle during the mid-Pleistocene transition to the near catastrophic levels as did the ancestral species for living humans. The tiny global population suggested by Hu et al. for the latter also hints that their geographic distribution had to be very limited; otherwise widely separated small bands would surely have perished over the 120 ka of the bottleneck event. Yet, during the critical period from 930 to 813 ka even Britain was visited by a small band of archaic humans who left footprints in river sediments now exposed at Happisburgh in Norfolk. Hu et al. cite the scarcity of archaeological evidence from that period – perhaps unwisely – in support of their bottleneck hypothesis. There are plenty of other gaps in the comparatively tenuous fossil and archaeological records of hominins as a whole.

The discovery of genetic evidence for this population bottleneck is clearly exciting, as is the implication that it may have been the trigger for evolution of later human species and the stem event for modern humans. Hopefully Hu et al’s work will spur yet more genetic research along similar lines, but there is an even more pressing need for field research aimed at new human fossils from new archaeological sites.

See also: Ashton, N. & Stringer, C. 2023. Did our ancestors nearly die out? Science (Perspectives), v. 381, p. 947-948; DOI: 10.1126.science.adj9484.

Ikarashi, A. 2023. Human ancestors nearly went extinct 900,000 years ago. Nature, v. 621; DOI: 10.1038/d41586-023-02712-4

Di Vicenzo, F & Manzi, G. 2023. An evolutionary bottleneck and the emergence of Neanderthals, Denisovans and modern humans. Homo heidelbergensis as the Middle Pleistocene common ancestor of Denisovans, Neanderthals and modern humans. Journal of Mediterranean Earth Sciences, v, 15, p. 161-173; DOI: 10.13133/2280-6148/18074