Farmers in India have been engaged in mass protests since September 2020. Their anger is directed at a series of laws introduced by the central government of Narendra Modi’s  Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that change farmers’ terms of trade. Agriculture in India also faces a future of reduced availability of groundwater on which farmers have become increasingly dependent, especially in the vast alluvial plains of the Ganges river system. The twin satellites of the Gravity Recovery  and Climate Experiment (GRACE), which chart changes in mass beneath the Earth’s surface, detected a major change in gravity over 3 million km² of India’s largest area of agriculture in the northwestern Gangetic plains (Rodell, M. et al. 2009. Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India. Nature, v. 460, p.999-1002; DOI: 10.1038/nature08238). The data suggested a loss between 2002 and 2008 of around 109 cubic kilometres of water from the aquifers that support regional irrigation and the livelihoods of about 114 million people (see NASA summary). The loss of water and decline in well-water levels have continued since then.

A recent comprehensive survey (Jain, M. and 8 others 2021. Groundwater depletion will reduce cropping intensity in India. Science Advances, v. 9, article eabd2849; DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abd2849) uses satellite image and census data to document the actual changes in winter crops (those most dependent on irrigation) over the period 2001 to 2012. It roughly measures the realities of the unsustainable extraction of groundwater indicated by GRACE from 2002 to 2008. The study projects an average reduction of 20% in winter cropping across the whole of India, with some of the worst-hit areas being likely to experience a 68% loss. The dominant supplies of irrigation water are from countless tube wells and systems of canals supplied by dams or rivers. India has witnessed impressive gains in food production in the last half century, thanks to rapid and continuing growth in the number of tube wells driven by individual farmers. The livelihoods of about 600 million people depend on agriculture. There is no prospect of substituting either form of irrigation to maintain current levels of production. If increased canal supply was used to replace well water and reduce groundwater depletion, cropping intensity would still decline, albeit at about half the projected rate; however, that doesn’t take into account unpredictable droughts in surface water accumulation and movement.

Faced with this situation, it is hardly surprising that farmers fear for their families future and react massively to state intervention in their marketing and crop storage strategies.

For a wider context to the Indian agricultural crisis see also: The ecological roots of India’s farming crisis (Deutche Welle, 1 February, 2021)