Category: Climate change and palaeoclimatology

One of the main controls over Earth’s climate is the way that water in the North Atlantic convects. At present it is behaving like a liquid conveyor belt that links the tropics and well to the north of the Arctic Circle. Warm salty water that reaches boreal latitudes cools and also becomes saltier as sea ice freezes out fresh water. It therefore gets denser and sinks to the ocean floor in the Denmark Strait between Iceland and Greenland, and between Iceland and the Faeroe Isles. This downwelling drags surface water polewards from the tropics to replenish the system, thereby creating the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Drift that warms coastal north-western Europe as far as the northern tip of Scandinavia. It was not always this way; evidence has accumulated to indicate that the North Atlantic ‘conveyor’ shut down periodically during the run-up to the last glacial period and in the climatic hiccup of the Younger Dryas (12.6-11.5 ka). The best supported hypothesis as to why it may do that is through massive influx of freshwater to lower the density of surface water in the northernmost North Atlantic. The progressive summer retreat of sea-ice in the Arctic Ocean and the likelihood of ice-free summers there in the near future raises fears that such a shut-down may occur once again, because of freshening of surface water by ice meltwater, with devastating climatic results for Europe at least. The circulation also transports carbon dioxide dissolved in cold descending surface water to abyssal depths helping buffer its atmospheric concentration: a shut-down would allow greenhouse gas emitted by society to build up in the air.

One means of investigating the mechanisms that underlie ‘on’ and ‘off’ switching in ocean convection is to use sea-floor sediment data from the18 ka long period since the last glacial maximum (Thornalley. D.J.R. et al. 2011. The deglacial evolution of North Atlantic convection. Science, v. 331, p. 202-205). The British-US consortium used oxygen isotope data from the planktonic (near-surface) foraminifera Neogloboquadrina pachyderma preserved in sea-floor sediment cores from south of Iceland, close to where surface water descends today, to assess sea-surface temperature variations. Because of the continual exchange of CO₂ between surface water and the atmosphere, the ocean surface contains the same radioactive ¹⁴C content in carbon as does the atmosphere, at whose top the isotope is produced. When water descends this connection is cut and the proportion of ¹⁴C in it decays so that it is theoretically possible to work out the time at which deep water began to descend – its ‘ventilation age’. In practice this is done by measuring the ‘age’ of  carbon preserved in planktonic and benthonic (deep- and bottom-water) foram shells, the planktonic age being the actual age used to assess the age difference between deep and surface waters. In the case of a complete shut-down of the convection the ventilation age should be high and constant; exactly the case during the last glacial maximum (19-22 ka) and most of Heinrich Stadial 1 (16.5-19 ka). When the ‘conveyor’ is functioning the ventilation age should be low, in fact from about 16-11.5 ka the ventilation age fluctuates to show 3 major and 2 lesser low to high episodes during the Bølling-Allerød and Younger Dryas, suggesting that indeed there was repeated turning-on and turning-off of the conveyor, probably triggered by pulses of fresh water into the northern North Atlantic from glacial melting. The resolution of these data is of the order of 350 years, so there may be finer detail of great interest as regards future climate.

See also: Sarnthein, M. Northern meltwater pulses, CO_2, and changes in Atlantic convection. Science, v. 331, p. 156-158.

Application of the Uniformitarian Principle by geologists from Minnesota, USA (Runkel, A.C. et al. 2010. Tropical shoreline ice in the late Cambrian: implications for Earth’s climate between the Cambrian Explosion and the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event. GSA Today v.20 (November 2010), p. 4-10) may have shown that around the end of the Cambrian period (500 to 488 Ma) global climate was sufficiently cold for sea ice to have formed in the tropics of the time. The evidence comes from curious metre-scale clasts of cemented sands in Late Cambrian beach deposits of the northern USA, some of which show imbrication as if the bodies were shoved together. Others seem to have been extended into boudin-like plates without any sign of tectonic activity, so that isolated clasts occur in offshore deposits. Yet more have been bent to drape over irregularities in the surface beneath them. Somehow individual sand beds must have become cemented quickly so that water action could fracture them in a brittle fashion and then they became softer to experience ductile deformation and even boring by worm-like animals. Almost exact replicas of such structures form on the shores of the American Great Lakes in winter when water in shoreline sands freezes to cement the grains. Breaking waves and melting explain the peculiar structures in these intraclasts. Examples of ice-cemented sediments abound in glaciogenic deposits, but the Late Cambrian world is widely considered to have experienced greenhouse conditions.

Apparently not as the North American crust was definitely close to the Equator at that time. The intraclasts occur only in one stratigraphic Formation of the Minnesotan Cambrian, because it preserves littoral facies. There are no other reports from elsewhere, but that may well be because few geologists were able to combine the experience of modern frigid shore conditions with that of Cambrian stratigraphy as those from Minnesota surely do.

The Middle to Late Cambrian was a period of faunal hiccups, diversification after the Cambrian Explosion failing to get underway because of repeated minor extinctions spread across the known occurrences of rocks of that age (see Linking oxygen levels to great animal radiations, this issue) . The Minnesotan evidence could indicate that the global climate was extremely unstable at that time in the manner of Neoproterozoic ‘Snowball Earth’ conditions, but not so severe. The widespread occurrence of microbial carbonate facies of this age range has long been used as evidence of a warm Earth, but such carbonated form today over a wide range of latitudes: witness the huge coccolithophore blooms so common at high latitudes nowadays. Shoreline sandy sediments of Cambrian age are not uncommon, occurring throughout the English Midlands and in NW Scotland, for instance. So it might be interesting to re-examine easily-reached occurrences such as these to see if similar structures turn-up.

Areas beyond the zones of isostatic depression by ice-loading and recovery during glacial-interglacial cycles passively undergo sea-level fall and inundation. They best record the progress of Holocene ice-sheet melting and sea-level rise since 11.5 ka, especially if they are tectonically stable. The island state of Singapore, 1.5 º north of the Equator, is a near-ideal place for study (Bird, M.I. et al. 2010. Punctuated eustatic sea-level rise in the early mid-Holocene. Geology, v. 38, p. 803-806). The Australian and British geoscientists analysed a core through sediments in a mangrove swamp now just below sea level. The top 14 m penetrated a uniform though laminated sequence of marine muds, calibrated to time by radiocarbon dating of mollusc shells, mainly focused on the period from 9 to 6 ka period that the global oxygen-isotope record of ice volume suggests to have been the main period of final melting after the Younger Dryas.

Sedimentation was very rapid (~1 cm y^-1) from  8.5 to 7.8 ka, probably as sea level rose too rapidly for the coast to be protected by mangrove growth.  Then for 400 years it slackened off to ~0.1 cm y^-1 to rise again to 0.5 cm y^-1 by 6.5 ka. The last date is the time of the mid-Holocene sea level highstand, after which sedimentation rate soon declined to 0.05 cm y^-1, when mangroves became established at the site. Stable isotopes of carbon in the core (δ¹³C) show how the relative input of marine and terrestrial (mainly mangroves) organisms shifted over the period and are a proxy for the distance to the coastline and hence sea level. From 8.5 to 6.5 ka this was erratic from a starting point about 10 m lower than nowadays, showing rapid rises and falls that culminated in a sea level in Singapore about 3 m above present during the mid-Holocene sea level highstand that slowly declined to that of the present.

The team’s findings tally with evidence for the melting record of the North American ice sheet. An interesting aspect is that they also cover the period when rice cultivation in swampy areas of SE Asia got underway (~7.7 ka). Very rapid sedimentation would have encouraged development of the substrate for the highly fertile delta plains that now support the largest regional population densities on Earth. In turn they culminated in a series of early south and east Asian civilisations based on class societies.

Studies of air-temperature proxies in cores from the Antarctic ice cap show a roughly mirrored climate record to that found in the Greenland ice. While the Northern Hemisphere underwent a sudden climate collapse into almost full-glacial conditions around 12.9 ka and an equally dramatic warming around 11.7 ka, Antarctica steadily warmed over the same period to reach full interglacial conditions by 11.5. That this climatic inversion reached relatively low southern latitudes is confirmed by a record of the changing size of glaciers on mountains in New Zealand’s South Island (Kaplan, M.R. and 9 others 2010. Glacier retreat in New Zealand during the Younger Dryas stadial. Nature, v. 467, p. 194-197). The US-New Zealand-Norwegian-French partnership used detailed geomorphological mapping, and cosmogenic isotope studies of exposed rock fragments to show that after about 13 ka glaciers retreated by more than a kilometre in the succeeding 1500 years in contrast to the dramatic glacial advances in northern areas such as the Scottish Highlands.

Studies of air-temperature proxies in cores from the Antarctic ice cap show a roughly mirrored climate record to that found in the Greenland ice. While the Northern Hemisphere underwent a sudden climate collapse into almost full-glacial conditions around 12.9 ka and an equally dramatic warming around 11.7 ka, Antarctica steadily warmed over the same period to reach full interglacial conditions by 11.5. That this climatic inversion reached relatively low southern latitudes is confirmed by a record of the changing size of glaciers on mountains in New Zealand’s South Island (Kaplan, M.R. and 9 others 2010. Glacier retreat in New Zealand during the Younger Dryas stadial. Nature, v. 467, p. 194-197). The US-New Zealand-Norwegian-French partnerships used detailed geomorphological mapping, and cosmogenic isotope studies of exposed rock fragments to show that after about 13 ka glaciers retreated by more than a kilometre in the succeeding 1500 years in contrast to the dramatic glacial advances in northern areas such as the Scottish Highlands.

Record of rising sea-level in the tropics

Areas beyond the zones of isostatic depression by ice-loading and recovery during glacial-interglacial cycles passively undergo sea-level fall and inundation. They best record the progress of Holocene ice-sheet melting and sea-level rise since 11.5 ka, especially if they are tectonically stable. The island state of Singapore, 1.5 º north of the Equator, is a near-ideal place for study (Bird, M.I. et al. 2010. Punctuated eustatic sea-level rise in the early mid-Holocene. Geology, v. 38, p. 803-806). The Australian and British geoscientists analysed a core through sediments in a mangrove swamp now just below sea level. The top 14 m penetrated a uniform though laminated sequence of marine muds, calibrated to time by radiocarbon dating of mollusc shells, mainly focused on the period from 9 to 6ka period that the global oxygen-isotope record of ice volume suggests to have been the main period of final melting after the Younger Dryas.

Sedimentation was very rapid (~1 cm y^-1) from  8.5 to 7.8 ka, probably as sea level rose too rapidly for the coast to be protected by mangrove growth.  Then for 400 years it slackened off to ~0.1 cm y^-1 to rise again to 0.5 cm y^-1 by 6.5 ka. The last date is the time of the mid-Holocene sea level highstand, after which sedimentation rate soon declined to 0.05 cm y^-1, when mangroves became established at the site. Stable isotopes of carbon in the core (δ¹³C) show how the relative input of marine and terrestrial (mainly mangroves) organisms shifted over the period and are a proxy for the distance to the coastline and hence sea level. From 8.5 to 6.5 ka this was erratic from a starting point about 10 m lower than nowadays, showing rapid rises and falls that culminated in a sea level in Singapore about 3 m above present during the mid-Holocene sea level highstand that slowly declined to that of the present.

The team’s findings tally with evidence for the melting record of the North American ice sheet. An interesting aspect is that they also cover the period when rice cultivation in swampy areas of SE Asia got underway (~7.7 ka). Very rapid sedimentation would have encouraged development of the substrate for the highly fertile delta plains that now support the largest regional population densities on Earth. In turn they culminated in a series of early south and east Asian civilisations based on class societies.

The publicity and debate that sprang up in the 9 months after release of e-mails stolen (17 November 2009) from the British University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit, and several debacles regarding pronouncements by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have in fact cleared the air on several purely scientific matters. , Contrary to what had become the broad public conception, thanks to massive and continuous propaganda about global warming that barely mentions anything else, greenhouse gas emissions are widely revealed to be not the ‘only game in town’ when it comes to past changes in climate. That is very much the lesson learned by decades of study of the greatest climate change that fully modern humans have experienced: the last glacial termination when the deepest frigidity about 20 ka ago gave way to very rapid warming. A review of that enormous world event carries important lessons about what really controls climate on our world and how complex that is (Denton, G.H. et al. 2010. The last glacial termination. Science, v. 328, p. 1652-1656).

Since the 1970s proxy data from deep-sea sediments that reveal the variation in the volume of glacial ice on land have showed how climate changes over the last 2.5 Ma are broadly correlated with the periods of astronomical effects on the amount of solar energy received by Earth or insolation, particularly that at high northern latitudes. This might suggest that glacial terminations occur when insolation reaches maxima. In fact over the last 800 ka terminations have also occurred at times of low insolation. The Milankovich signal is ubiquitous but it is not the primary driving factor for the end of glacial episodes. Nor do they tally exactly with increased CO2 in the atmosphere, as recorded in air bubble trapped in polar ice. In fact there is a lag between the record for greenhouse gases and those for warming and cooling. The clearest correlation is between terminations and the maximum volume of land ice in each glacial epoch, towards which Denton et al. direct most attention. Since Antarctic ice has barely changed volume since the Pliocene, pulsation in land-ice volume must stem mostly from Northern Hemisphere glaciation and deglaciation. That repeatedly occurred around the North Atlantic where the main sites for ocean-water downwelling occur. At their thickest the North American and European ice sheets also had their greatest isostatic effects, bowing down the crust, and increasing ice flow towards the ocean. Time after time in each glacial build-up such a configuration became unstable so that marginal ice collapsed to produce the iceberg ‘armadas’ known as Heinrich events. Freshening of the North Atlantic by iceberg melting shut down the downwelling, thereby thermally isolating high northern latitudes to give Dansgaard-Oeschger events comprising paired coolings, or stadials, followed by suddenly warming interstadials once deep circulation restarted.

What is also emerging is that, to maintain heat balance, as each stadial developed in the North Atlantic more heat was shifted to the Southern Hemisphere. Increased downwelling of cold saline water of the Southern Ocean drove this warming to higher southern latitudes. The net observed effect is a southern reversal of sea-surface and polar air temperatures compared with those of the Northern Hemisphere, especially clear in the late stages of the last termination, including the Younger Dryas. Each warming of the south encouraged the southern oceans to emit stored CO2 to the atmosphere, until finally sufficient to maintain global warm conditions when the arose during terminations.

Flatulence and the Younger Dryas
There is a widespread belief that the enlargement of domesticated ruminant herds, mainly cattle, goats and sheep, may have had some effect on recent climate: their enteric fermentation of grass cellulose generates methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. Livestock produce an estimated 80 million metric tons of methane annually, accounting for about 28% of anthropogenic methane emissions. Livestock aren’t the only methane emitting ruminants: giraffe; bison; yaks; water buffalo; deer; camels (including llamas and alpacas); and antelope. Elephants are not so efficient, but they do break wind a great deal. An adult elephant emits about half a ton of methane annually; enough to run a car 20 miles per day; on the school run for instance.

Livestock have become the dominant herbivores on the planet, but far more wild ruminants roamed the Earth during the last glacial epoch because of the much greater expanses of grasslands during cooler, more arid conditions. This was especially the case in North America, a much diminished impression being given by the vast herds of bison that were almost exterminated in the 19th century and those of caribou that still migrate across Alaska and northern Canada. The estimated ruminant population of late-Pleistocene prairies was so large that it too has been implicated in climate change during the last glacial termination (Smith, F.A. et al. 2010. Methane emissions from extinct megafauna. Nature Geoscience, v. 3, p. 374-375), with estimated annual emissions around 10 million tons. With atmospheric methane concentrations having reached around 650 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) by 15 ka – a third of those today – the farting animals of the prairies may have made a significant contribution to post-glacial global warming. Sometime around 13 ka immigrant humans from Asia entered the scene, armed with efficient hunting weapons. By 11.5 ka, the vast herds had more or less vanished through extinction, and the 10 megaton methane emission went with them. Felisa Smith and her colleagues from the University of New Mexico, Los Alamos National National Laboratory and the Smithsonian Institution, USA, note that over the same period atmospheric methane content fell from 650 to <500 ppbv. They speculate that part of this decline may have resulted from the extinction of the North American ‘megafauna’ and contributed to the Younger Dryas cooling between 12.8 to 11.5 ka. If that were the case, it would have been the earliest instance of a human effect on the Earth and, opine the authors, ought to be used to mark the start of what some geoscientists propose as a new geological Period: the ‘Anthropocene’. This parochial view surely ranks alongside that of a shower of nano-diamonds from an extraterrestrial explosion as the cause of the Younger Dryas, to the posthumous annoyance of William Seach of Occam.

Doubt cast on erosion and weathering theory of climate change
A seminal paper in the late 1980’s by Maureen Raymo, Flip Froelich and Bill Ruddiman proposed that the uplift of mountain ranges, their erosion and associated chemical weathering helped gradually shift global climate. Their main reasoning was that rotting of feldspars by carbonic acid formed when CO2 dissolves in rainwater locked the greenhouse gas in soil carbonates and supplied bicarbonate ions to sea water, where they would recombine with calcium and magnesium ions also released by weathering to form limestones. This process would draw down greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere faster during episodes of major mountain building. Such carbonate burial has since been assumed to have helped the Earth’s climate cool during the Cenozoic era, after the Alps, Andes and especially the Himalaya began to form. There have been many publications about the processes involved and the geochemical signature of varying erosion, such as changes in the strontium isotope composition of limestones as a proxy for that of sea water. But the real test for whether or not there have been pulses in erosion controlled by orogeny would involve measuring changes over time in sediment deposition in all the world’s sedimentary basins. In a recent paper (Willenbring, J.K. & von Blanckenburg, F. 2010. Long-term stability of global erosion rates and weathering during late-Cenozoic cooling. Nature, v. 465, p. 211-214) published estimates of continent derived sedimentation plotted against atmospheric CO2 derived from various proxies show two features. First, there hasn’t been a truly significant decrease in CO2 since the end of the Oligocene (23 Ma). Secondly, although sedimentation over every 5 Ma rose from about 6 x 1015 to 1016 t between the end of the Oligocene and the start of the Pliocene. Repeated glaciation over the last 5 Ma helped increase global sedimentation to 3 x 1016 t, but even that tripling seems not to have had much effect on atmospheric CO2.

Willenbring and von Blanckenburg have attempted to improve the very uncertain evolution of the sedimentary record based on basin stratigraphy – despite seismic sections in many basins, costly and still rare 3-D cross sections are the only means of working out actual masses of sediment deposited through time. The authors re-examined the record of beryllium isotopes in sediments and manganese crusts from the deep-ocean floor, as a proxy for rates of weathering of continental debris. The principle behind this is the continuous production of radioactive 10Be in the atmosphere by cosmic rays, and its entry into the oceans. There it mixes with stable 9Be released to solution by weathering of rocks. Allowing for the decay of 10Be and assuming constant rates at which it is produced, the 10Be/9Be ratio in ocean water and sediments in contact with it is a proxy for global weathering. A decrease in the ratio implies an increase in continental weathering, while decreases signify periods of slowing rock breakdown. Over the last 10 Ma, the ratio has stayed more or less constant in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The obvious conclusion is that the last 10 Ma showed no pulse in weathering and that period did not follow the Raymo-Froelich-Ruddiman model. There are several explanations for the ‘flat-lining’ Be isotopes (Goddéris, Y. 2010. Mountains without erosion. Nature, v. 465, p. 169-171), but a rethink of the significance of any link between orogeny and climate is clearly on the cards.

On the same topic, the start of Northern Hemisphere glaciations and its 30-40 Ma lead-in, Bill Ruddiman of the University of Virginia reviews a broader range of evidence (Ruddiman, W.F. 2010. A paleoclimatic enigma. Science, v. 328, p. 838-839) but not that presented by Willenbring and von Blanckenburg. He concludes that little has changed by way of explanation since the late 1990s, and decreased CO2¬ was the primary forcing factor. Yet his own plot of atmospheric CO2 estimated from marine-sediment alkenones (organic compounds produced by some phytoplankton) shows little fluctuation in the mean concentration since 20 Ma, which is around that for the Pliocene-Pleistocene Great Ice Age.

The original hypothesis of Neoproterozoic global glacial conditions, proposed by Joe Kirschvink (California Institute of Technology) and Paul Hoffman (emeritus at Harvard) in the 1990s was that conditions became so severe that the Earth was encased in glacial- and sea ice from pole to pole. As EPN has charted since 2000, that ‘hard’ Snowball variant has become increasingly less favoured by most geoscientists (Kerr, R.A. 2010. Snowball Earth has melted back to a profound wintry mix. Science, v. 327, p. 1186). However, evidence supporting low latitude glaciations continues to emerge (, F.A. and 9 others 2010. Calibrating the Cryogenian. . Science, v. 327, p. 1241-1243). In the latest, diamictites of the so-called ‘Sturtian’ glaciation in north-western Canada are interbedded with volcanic rocks that give a very precise age of 716.5 Ma. That age happens to coincide with outpouring of the regionally massive Franklin flood basalts whose palaeomagnetism gives equatorial latitudes, the first recorded for the Sturtian glaciation: the later Marinoan glaciation (~635 Ma) provides most low-latitude evidence for Snowball conditions. The paper by Francis Macdonald and co-workers also gives detailed carbon isotope data for a continuous sedimentary record from >811 to 583 Ma.

A potential spanner in the works for the entire Snowball Earth hypothesis is the discovery of a strange anomaly concerning palaeomagnetic pole positions during latest Neoproterozoic times  (Abrajevitch, A. & van der Voo, R. 2010. Incompatible Ediacaran paleomagnetic directions suggest an equatorial geomagnetic dipole hypothesis. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, v. 293, p. 164-170). Paleomagnetism from glaciogenic rocks is the lynchpin for the notion of Snowball Earth, some occurrences recording tropical latitudes. Alexandra Abrajevitch (Kochi University, Japan) and Rob van der Voo (University of Michigan) report palaeomagnetic results for igneous rocks between 600 and 550 Ma in what are now North America and Scandinavia. The data show original inclinations of the magnetic field that are both steep and shallow, indicating high and low latitudes respectively. Plotting inclination against radiometric age for what were separate continental masses in the Ediacaran Period reveals repeated rapid changes from high to low palaeolatitudes that simply cannot be accounted for by continental drift: plate tectonic rates would have to have been unaccountably fast (~45 cm yr^-1). To account for the abrupt shifts the authors turn not to true polar wander – due to changes in the geometry of the geomagnetic dipole – but to rapid flips in the orientation of the dipole between a coaxial and an equatorial alignment, perhaps due to dramatic changes of circulation within the liquid outer core. Familiar geomagnetic reversals normally shift the magnetic poles between roughly the geographic pole positions. Yet there are data showing that for brief periods the reversing poles do pass through equatorial latitudes but at very low magnetic field strength. In the cases from the Ediacaran the geomagnetic poles dwelt at tropical latitudes for long periods and maintained a strong field. Were such strange behaviour demonstrated earlier in the Neoproterozoic, during the Cryogenian period of supposed Snowball events, that would undermine the whole basis for the hypothesis. It seems inevitable that geophysicists will scurry to check the earlier palaeomagnetic data, analysing more igneous rocks on all continents at the narrowest possible time intervals.