Readers of Earth-logs will be familiar with the way gravitational interactions between the planets that orbit the Sun control cyclical shifts in each other’s rotational and orbital behaviours. The best known are the three Milankovich cycles. The eccentricity of Earth’s orbit (deviation from a circular path) changes according to the varying gravitational pulls exerted by Jupiter and Saturn as they orbit the Sun, and is dominated by 100 ka cyclicity. The tilt (obliquity) of Earth’s rotational axis changes in 41 ka cycles.  The direction in which the axis points relative to the Sun varies with its precession which has a period of about 25.7 ka. Together they control the amount of solar heating that our planet receives, best shown by the current variation in glacial-interglacial cycles. But the phenomena predicted by Milutin Milankovich show up in palaeoclimatic changes back to at least the late Precambrian. Climate changes resulting from the gravitational effect of Mars have recently been detected with a 2.4 Ma period. But that steady carousel of planetary motions hasn’t always characterised the Solar System.

Observations of other stars that reveal the presence of their own planetary systems show that some have giant planets in much closer orbits than those that circuit the Sun. Others occur at distances that extend as far as the orbital diameters as those in the Solar System: so perhaps giant planets can migrate. A possibility began to be discussed in the late 1990s that Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune – and a fifth now-vanished giant planet – were at the outset in neat, evenly-spaced and much closer orbits. But they were forced outwards later into more eccentric and generally askew orbits. In 2005, planetary astronomers gathered in Nice, France to ponder the possibilities. The outcome was the ‘Nice’ Model that suggested that a gravitational instability had once emerged, which set the Solar System in chaotic motion. It may even have flung gigantic masses, such as postulated fifth giant planets, into interstellar space. This upheaval may have been due to a rapid change in the overall distribution of mass in the Solar System, possibly involving gas and dust that had not yet accreted into other planets or their planetesimal precursors. Chaotic antics of monstrous bodies and shifts in their combined gravitational fields can barely be imagined: it was nothing like the staid and ever present Milankovich Effect. Geologists have reconstructed one gargantuan event that reset the chemistry of the early Earth when it collided with another body about the size of Mars. That  also flung off matter that became the Moon. Evidence from lunar and terrestrial zircon grains (see: Moon-forming impact dated; March 2009) suggests the collision occurred before 4.46 billion years ago (when parts of both eventually crystallised from magma oceans), Solar System having begun to form at around 4.57 Ga. Could formation of the Moon record the early planetary chaos? Others have suggested instead that the great upheaval was the Late Heavy Bombardment, between 4.1 and 3.8 Ga, which heavily cratered much of the lunar surface and those of moons orbiting the giant planets.

Another approach has been followed by Chrysa Avdellidou of the University of Leicester, UK and colleagues from France and the US (Avdellidoli, C. et al. 2024. Dating the Solar System’s giant planet orbital instability using enstatite meteorites. Science, v. 384, p. 348-352; DOI: 10.1126/science.adg8092) after discovery of a new family of asteroids: named after its largest member Athor. The composition of their surfaces, from telescopic spectra, closely matches that of EL enstatite chondrite meteorites. Dating these meteorites should show when their parent asteroids – presumably the Athors – formed.  Using argon and xenon isotopes Mario Trieloff  and colleagues from the University of Heidelberg, Germany in showed that the materials in EL enstatite chondrite meteorites were assembled a mere 2 Ma after the Solar System formed (Trieloff, M. et al. 2022. Evolution of the parent body of enstatite (EL) chondrites. Icarus, v. 373, article 114762; DOI: 10.1016/j.icarus.2021.114762). Be that as it may, that the evidence came from small meteorites shows that the parent body, estimated as having had a 240 to 420 km diameter, was shattered at some later time. Moreover, at that very early date such bodies would have contained a ready heat source in the form of a short-lived isotope of aluminium (²⁶Al) which decays to stable ²⁶Mg, with a half-life of 0.717 Ma. ²⁶Al is thought to have been produced by a supernova that has been suggested to have triggered the formation of the Solar System. Excessive ²⁶Mg is found in many meteorites, evidence for metamorphism formed by such radiogenic heat. They also record the history of their cooling.

Avdellidoli et al. estimate that the 240 to 420 km Athor parental planetesimal had slowly cooled for at least 60 Ma after it formed. When it was shattered, the small fragments would have cooled instantaneously to the temperature of interplanetary space – a few degrees above absolute zero (-273.2 °C). From this they deduce the age of the chaotic restructuring of the early Solar System to be at least 60 Ma after its formation. Other authors use similar reasoning from other chondritic meteorite classes to suggest it may have happened even earlier at 11 Ma. But there are other views for a considerably later migration of the giant planets and the havoc that they wrought. The only widely agreed date, in what seems to be an outbreak of wrangling among astronomers, is for the Moon-forming collision: 110 Ma after formation of the Solar System. For me, at least, that’s good-enough evidence for when system-wide chaos prevailed. The Late Heavy Bombardment between 4.1 and 3.8 Ga seems to require a different mechanism as it affected large bodies that still exist. It may have resulted from whatever formed the asteroid belt, for it was bodies within the range of sizes of the asteroids that did the damage, in both the Inner and Outer Solar System.

See also: The instability at the beginning of the solar system. MSUToday, 27 April 2022: Voosen, P. 2024. Giant planets ran amok soon after the Solar System’s birth. Science, v. 384 news article eadp8889; DOI: 10.1126/science.adp8889